real time stock market sentiment dashboard
A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login, no sign-up.
Regime read: LONG · expected +2.60% ± 5.43% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.48 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Bull (61.3% posterior, +43.1%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.1026%/day and dominates. Net +0.1022%/day.
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLTR | +8.5 | Information Technology | 75.9 | 2.37 | 68% | Zeta Global Sees AI, Palantir Partnership Fueling Marketing Tech GrowthprofitableExtended FWD P/EExpensive PEGY (>2) |
| HOOD | +5.7 | Financials | 29.7 | 2.12 | 34% | Robinhood Now Has 13 Separate Business Lines Above $100 Million in Annualized Revenue. Here's Why Crypto No Longer Decides the Quarter.profitableExpensive PEGY (>2) |
| TDY | +4.4 | Information Technology | 25.9 | 1.40 | 97% | Teledyne agrees to acquire Varex Imaging for $1.1bnprofitableNear 52w High |
| TEAM | +3.6 | Information Technology | 22.4 | — | 75% | "SaaSpocalypse?" Not for Atlassian Stock, Which Has Now Soared 166% From Its 52-Week Low.UNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
| ARM | +3.4 | Information Technology | 87.3 | 2.32 | 48% | Arm Stock Is Off 39% From Its High. Why This Could Be the Best Time to Buy.profitableExtended FWD P/EExpensive PEGY (>2) |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ONON | LONG | 42.4% | -0.04 | -0.17 | +0.05 | Despair reversion: sentiment -7 but undervalued; ⚠ Earnings in 0d — event risk inside hold window |
| 2 | COIN | LONG | 41.7% | -0.17 | -0.34 | -0.58 | Accelerating velocity +5.8 (2 mentions/12h) |
| 3 | TDY | LONG | 41.5% | -0.24 | -0.53 | -1.32 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 4.4); ⚠ Near 52w High; Quality: F-score 7/9 |
| 4 | HOOD | LONG | 41.5% | -0.24 | -0.53 | -1.32 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 5.7); CIO meta-model current selection; ⚠ Expensive PEGY (>2) |
| 5 | TEAM | LONG | 41.5% | -0.24 | -0.53 | -1.32 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 3.6); ⚠ UNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
| 6 | PLTR | LONG | 41.5% | -0.24 | -0.53 | -1.32 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 8.5); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Expensive PEGY (>2); Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 7 | ARM | LONG | 41.5% | -0.24 | -0.53 | -1.32 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 3.4); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Expensive PEGY (>2); Quality: F-score 7/9 |
Engine hit rate 43.7% over 229 scored calls (lower bound 37.4%), average net alpha -0.259%. Serving: rules.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
A massive 17% jump following a blowout earnings beat suggests strong momentum and pricing power, but conviction is capped by the potential for 'sell the news' profit-taking and macro travel spending risks.
2026-08-10 10:50Nielsen's $2.15 billion takeover of DoubleVerify is a major bullish catalyst, but the stock will likely trade at a discount to the offer price due to deal risk and the correctness of the pre-announcement run-up.
2026-08-08 12:21The announcement of a cash buyout to take the company private is a primary catalyst for price convergence toward the offer price, though conviction is tempered by the M&A arbitrage spread and potential 'sell the news' dynamics.
2026-08-08 11:40Datadog's 19% plunge as a leader of the software sector slide suggests systemic risk and valuation reset rather than a temporary dip, signaling a high probability of continued downward pressure.
2026-08-08 05:11A price collapse following an earnings beat is a classic institutional distribution signal, indicating that the 'beat' was likely priced in or based on a lowered bar, suggesting a further downward trajectory.
2026-08-07 22:02The withdrawal of guidance and dividend slash signals a fundamental breakdown in cash flow visibility and management credibility, outweighing any 'blood in the streets' recovery narrative.
2026-08-07 14:53A 28% plunge following earnings is a violent confirmation of structural failure and fundamental devaluation rather than a temporary overreaction.
2026-08-06 21:46A simultaneous earnings miss and weakened revenue outlook provides a classic 'double whammy' that triggers an aggressive re-rating of the growth narrative, outweighing any short-term dip-buying opportunities.
2026-08-06 20:25AppLovin's earnings fall is acting as a systemic catalyst for the Nasdaq, indicating a fundamental devaluation of AI-driven ad-tech valuations rather than a temporary dip.
2026-08-06 12:49Prysmian's all-cash acquisition of Atkore is a massive catalyst, but the risk premium and arbitrage gap prevent it from an absolute certainty of convergence to the purchase price.
2026-08-06 04:43Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
| Ticker | Velocity | Vol | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| COIN | +5.8 | 2 | Coinbase establishes its tokenization hub in Abu Dhabi, with Financial Services Permission from the Financial Services Regulatory Authority (FSRA) |
Change in scored coverage over the last 12 hours versus the prior 12.
| HIMS | -6.5 | Hims & Hers Q2 2026 earnings: loss despite revenue beat |
| WEN | -5.2 | Wendy's loses status as second-largest burger chain after 6-year run |
| Z | -3.9 | Is Zillow (Z) Stock a Buy After Falling Nearly 13% in 1 Day? |
| IPGP | -2.7 | InvestingPro’s Fair Value flagged IPGP’s 45% drop six months early |
| HONA | -2.6 | Jim Cramer Dumps Honeywell Aerospace (HONA) After Shock Guidance Cut Triggers Sharp Selloff |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financials | +118 | +398 | +2,902 | |
| Energy | +168 | +394 | +2,496 | |
| Information Technology | +68 | +386 | +482 | |
| Materialsbullish reversal | +4 | +46 | -29 | |
| Health Care | -38 | -90 | -276 | |
| Industrials | -34 | -116 | -678 | |
| Communication Services | -18 | -124 | -398 | |
| Utilities | -46 | -165 | -861 | |
| Consumer Staples | -36 | -204 | -723 | |
| Consumer Discretionary | -82 | -258 | -1,356 | |
| Real Estate | -104 | -269 | -1,560 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil Prices | +100.2 | +134 | |
| Artificial Intelligence | +83.2 | +268 | |
| Cryptocurrency | +43.7 | +50 | |
| Stock Market | +27.5 | +35 | |
| Inflation | -17.5 | -43 | |
| Interest Rates | -25.7 | -31 | |
| Geopolitical Tension | -30.8 | -47 | |
| Geopolitics | -39.7 | -23 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Markov Regime Engine | UP | 50% |
| Macro Factor Gate | UP | 55% |
Consensus: BULLISH
Weekly index projection: +0.69% (80% band -1.98% to +2.07%).
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 12.5% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 56% |
| Variance risk premium | +2.7 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.57% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.52% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.65% |
Premium in normal range — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.06 in-sample / 0.10 OOS, worst 0.06) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil & Gas | 0.79 | 1.4h | ELEVATED |
| Geopolitics | 0.74 | 2.4h | ELEVATED |
| Artificial Intelligence | 0.66 | 0.6h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Interest Rates | 0.65 | 0.8h | SUBCRITICAL |
| M&A | 0.53 | 0.9h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Semiconductors | 0.47 | 0.9h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Crypto & Digital Assets | 0.46 | 0.9h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Aerospace & Defense | 0.46 | 1.0h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 395 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 1,365 |
| Projected close of day | 981 |
| Daily average | 1,341 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 0.98× |
| Total in corpus | 150,233 |
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.