real time stock market sentiment dashboard
A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login, no sign-up.
Regime read: LONG · expected +2.73% ± 5.31% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.51 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Bull (73.7% posterior, +43.1%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.1204%/day and dominates. Net +0.1201%/day.
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RIOT | +9.0 | Financials | -29.9 | — | 53% | Riot Platforms stock surges on $9.1 billion data center deal with AnthropicFwd P/E < 15EV/EBITDA < 10UNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
| HOOD | +8.1 | Financials | 29.3 | 2.12 | 33% | Robinhood to introduce crypto trading in UKprofitableExpensive PEGY (>2) |
| PLTR | +7.8 | Information Technology | 76.2 | 2.41 | 69% | Zeta Global Sees AI, Palantir Partnership Fueling Marketing Tech GrowthprofitableExtended FWD P/EExpensive PEGY (>2) |
| SE | +5.7 | Consumer Discretionary | 24.4 | 1.65 | 42% | Sea Limited shares surge 9% as revenue jumps 48% and Shopee outlook strengthensprofitable |
| TDY | +4.0 | Information Technology | 26.0 | 1.40 | 98% | Teledyne agrees to acquire Varex Imaging for $1.1bnprofitableNear 52w High |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ONON | LONG | 42.4% | -0.04 | -0.17 | +0.05 | Despair reversion: sentiment -10 but undervalued; ⚠ Earnings in 0d — event risk inside hold window |
| 2 | COIN | LONG | 41.7% | -0.17 | -0.34 | -0.58 | Accelerating velocity +5.8 (2 mentions/12h) |
| 3 | RIOT | LONG | 41.6% | -0.19 | -0.40 | -0.82 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 9.1); Accelerating velocity +12.4 (3 mentions/12h); ⚠ UNPROFITABLE - elevated risk; ⚠ Earnings in 0d — event risk inside hold window |
| 4 | SE | LONG | 41.3% | -0.24 | -0.48 | -1.05 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 5.7); Accelerating velocity +7.0 (2 mentions/12h); Quality: F-score 8/9; ⚠ Earnings in 0d — event risk inside hold window |
| 5 | TDY | LONG | 41.5% | -0.24 | -0.53 | -1.32 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 4.1); ⚠ Near 52w High; Quality: F-score 7/9 |
| 6 | HOOD | LONG | 41.3% | -0.24 | -0.48 | -1.05 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 8.1); Accelerating velocity +6.6 (2 mentions/12h); CIO meta-model current selection; ⚠ Expensive PEGY (>2) |
| 7 | PLTR | LONG | 41.5% | -0.24 | -0.53 | -1.32 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 7.9); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Expensive PEGY (>2); Quality: F-score 8/9 |
Engine hit rate 43.7% over 229 scored calls (lower bound 37.4%), average net alpha -0.259%. Serving: rules.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
The stock is tanking in real-time during earnings, signaling institutional exit and a valuation bubble burst rather than a temporary dip.
2026-08-11 13:40A massive 17% jump following a blowout earnings beat suggests strong momentum and pricing power, but conviction is capped by the potential for 'sell the news' profit-taking and macro travel spending risks.
2026-08-10 10:50Nielsen's $2.15 billion takeover of DoubleVerify is a major bullish catalyst, but the stock will likely trade at a discount to the offer price due to deal risk and the correctness of the pre-announcement run-up.
2026-08-08 12:21The announcement of a cash buyout to take the company private is a primary catalyst for price convergence toward the offer price, though conviction is tempered by the M&A arbitrage spread and potential 'sell the news' dynamics.
2026-08-08 11:40Datadog's 19% plunge as a leader of the software sector slide suggests systemic risk and valuation reset rather than a temporary dip, signaling a high probability of continued downward pressure.
2026-08-08 05:11A price collapse following an earnings beat is a classic institutional distribution signal, indicating that the 'beat' was likely priced in or based on a lowered bar, suggesting a further downward trajectory.
2026-08-07 22:02The withdrawal of guidance and dividend slash signals a fundamental breakdown in cash flow visibility and management credibility, outweighing any 'blood in the streets' recovery narrative.
2026-08-07 14:53A 28% plunge following earnings is a violent confirmation of structural failure and fundamental devaluation rather than a temporary overreaction.
2026-08-06 21:46A simultaneous earnings miss and weakened revenue outlook provides a classic 'double whammy' that triggers an aggressive re-rating of the growth narrative, outweighing any short-term dip-buying opportunities.
2026-08-06 20:25AppLovin's earnings fall is acting as a systemic catalyst for the Nasdaq, indicating a fundamental devaluation of AI-driven ad-tech valuations rather than a temporary dip.
2026-08-06 12:49Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
| Ticker | Velocity | Vol | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| RIOT | +12.4 | 3 | Riot Platforms stock surges on $9.1 billion data center deal with Anthropic |
| SE | +7.0 | 2 | Sea Limited shares surge 9% as revenue jumps 48% and Shopee outlook strengthens |
| HOOD | +6.6 | 2 | Robinhood to introduce crypto trading in UK |
| COIN | +5.8 | 2 | Coinbase establishes its tokenization hub in Abu Dhabi, with Financial Services Permission from the Financial Services Regulatory Authority (FSRA) |
Change in scored coverage over the last 12 hours versus the prior 12.
| HIMS | -7.0 | Lost it in hims but got it back in On running |
| HONA | -5.4 | Honeywell Aerospace (HONA) Trade Settles at Valuation Discount Following Spin-off |
| WEN | -4.8 | Wendy's loses status as second-largest burger chain after 6-year run |
| ASTS | -3.8 | AST SpaceMobile Q2 2026 earnings miss, full-year guidance held |
| ESLT | -3.8 | Elbit Systems shares fall 6% despite Q2 earnings and revenue beat |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy | +186 | +421 | +2,526 | |
| Information Technology | +82 | +394 | +491 | |
| Financials | +78 | +383 | +2,898 | |
| Materialsbullish reversal | +6 | +50 | -27 | |
| Health Care | -26 | -88 | -270 | |
| Communication Services | -14 | -120 | -397 | |
| Industrials | -34 | -133 | -684 | |
| Utilities | -44 | -166 | -867 | |
| Consumer Staples | -26 | -197 | -723 | |
| Consumer Discretionary | -86 | -263 | -1,365 | |
| Real Estate | -118 | -280 | -1,585 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil Prices | +107.2 | +143 | |
| Artificial Intelligence | +61.7 | +253 | |
| Semiconductors | +20.5 | +48 | |
| AI Infrastructure | +19.2 | +26 | |
| Geopolitical Tension | -26.3 | -43 | |
| Geopolitics | -32.0 | -16 | |
| Inflation | -32.2 | -57 | |
| Interest Rates | -46.0 | -50 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Markov Regime Engine | UP | 50% |
| Macro Factor Gate | UP | 55% |
Consensus: BULLISH
Weekly index projection: +0.69% (80% band -1.94% to +2.04%).
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 12.5% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 56% |
| Variance risk premium | +2.7 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.57% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.52% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.65% |
Premium in normal range — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.06 in-sample / 0.10 OOS, worst 0.06) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil & Gas | 0.79 | 1.4h | ELEVATED |
| Geopolitics | 0.73 | 2.6h | ELEVATED |
| Interest Rates | 0.68 | 0.9h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Artificial Intelligence | 0.65 | 0.6h | SUBCRITICAL |
| M&A | 0.54 | 1.0h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Semiconductors | 0.49 | 0.7h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Aerospace & Defense | 0.45 | 1.0h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Crypto & Digital Assets | 0.45 | 0.8h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 581 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 1,365 |
| Projected close of day | 1,110 |
| Daily average | 1,343 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 0.93× |
| Total in corpus | 150,419 |
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.