real time stock market sentiment dashboard
A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login, no sign-up.
Regime read: LONG · expected +2.65% ± 5.37% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.49 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Bull (67.3% posterior, +42.9%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.1106%/day and dominates. Net +0.1102%/day.
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RIOT | +8.5 | Financials | -28.4 | — | 47% | Why Anthropic’s $9 Billion Deal With Riot Is a Watershed Moment for Bitcoin MinersFwd P/E < 15EV/EBITDA < 10UNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
| PLTR | +6.1 | Information Technology | 75.6 | 2.41 | 68% | Down 0.5% in 2026, Is Palantir Stock a Buy?profitableExtended FWD P/EExpensive PEGY (>2) |
| SE | +5.2 | Consumer Discretionary | 25.0 | 1.65 | 45% | Why Sea Limited Stock Rocketed Higher on Tuesdayprofitable |
| HOOD | +3.8 | Financials | 29.6 | 2.15 | 34% | Robinhood to introduce crypto trading in UKprofitableExpensive PEGY (>2) |
| TDY | +3.7 | Information Technology | 25.6 | 1.40 | 93% | Teledyne Technologies to Buy Varex Imaging for $1.1 BillionprofitableNear 52w High |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ERO | LONG | 42.4% | -0.04 | -0.22 | +0.05 | High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum; Quality: F-score 9/9 |
| 2 | APO | LONG | 42.4% | -0.04 | -0.22 | +0.05 | High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum |
| 3 | INSW | LONG | 42.4% | -0.04 | -0.22 | +0.05 | High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum |
| 4 | ABCL | LONG | 42.4% | -0.04 | -0.22 | +0.05 | Despair reversion: sentiment -8 but undervalued |
| 5 | JOBY | LONG | 42.4% | -0.04 | -0.22 | +0.05 | Despair reversion: sentiment -6 but undervalued |
| 6 | ONON | LONG | 42.4% | -0.04 | -0.22 | +0.05 | Despair reversion: sentiment -9 but undervalued; ⚠ Earnings in 0d — event risk inside hold window |
| 7 | COIN | LONG | 41.7% | -0.17 | -0.38 | -0.57 | Accelerating velocity +5.6 (2 mentions/12h) |
| 8 | ACN | LONG | 41.7% | -0.17 | -0.38 | -0.57 | Accelerating velocity +5.0 (2 mentions/12h) |
Engine hit rate 43.3% over 233 scored calls (lower bound 37.1%), average net alpha -0.268%. Serving: rules.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
A 22% drop on a sales miss indicates a violent market re-rating of growth expectations and valuation premiums, shifting the stock from a 'growth' narrative to a 'fundamental' reality.
2026-08-11 17:42A massive 17% jump following a blowout earnings beat suggests strong momentum and pricing power, but conviction is capped by the potential for 'sell the news' profit-taking and macro travel spending risks.
2026-08-10 10:50Nielsen's $2.15 billion takeover of DoubleVerify is a major bullish catalyst, but the stock will likely trade at a discount to the offer price due to deal risk and the correctness of the pre-announcement run-up.
2026-08-08 12:21The announcement of a cash buyout to take the company private is a primary catalyst for price convergence toward the offer price, though conviction is tempered by the M&A arbitrage spread and potential 'sell the news' dynamics.
2026-08-08 11:40Datadog's 19% plunge as a leader of the software sector slide suggests systemic risk and valuation reset rather than a temporary dip, signaling a high probability of continued downward pressure.
2026-08-08 05:11A price collapse following an earnings beat is a classic institutional distribution signal, indicating that the 'beat' was likely priced in or based on a lowered bar, suggesting a further downward trajectory.
2026-08-07 22:02The withdrawal of guidance and dividend slash signals a fundamental breakdown in cash flow visibility and management credibility, outweighing any 'blood in the streets' recovery narrative.
2026-08-07 14:53A 28% plunge following earnings is a violent confirmation of structural failure and fundamental devaluation rather than a temporary overreaction.
2026-08-06 21:46A simultaneous earnings miss and weakened revenue outlook provides a classic 'double whammy' that triggers an aggressive re-rating of the growth narrative, outweighing any short-term dip-buying opportunities.
2026-08-06 20:25AppLovin's earnings fall is acting as a systemic catalyst for the Nasdaq, indicating a fundamental devaluation of AI-driven ad-tech valuations rather than a temporary dip.
2026-08-06 12:49Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
| Ticker | Velocity | Vol | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| RIOT | +21.6 | 6 | Why Anthropic’s $9 Billion Deal With Riot Is a Watershed Moment for Bitcoin Miners |
| SE | +7.4 | 3 | Why Sea Limited Stock Rocketed Higher on Tuesday |
| COIN | +5.6 | 2 | Coinbase Expands Derivatives Trading To UK Professional Clients |
| ACN | +5.0 | 2 | Are Wall Street Analysts Bullish on Accenture Stock? |
| SOFI | +3.8 | 2 | Jim Cramer Weighs In on SoFi’s (SOFI) $16–$19 Range |
Change in scored coverage over the last 12 hours versus the prior 12.
| ONON | -5.4 | On Holding Q2 2026 earnings: stock drops 22% on sales miss |
| LIFE | -3.7 | Why Life360 Stock Is Crashing Today |
| ABCL | -3.6 | AbCellera stock falls on $200M public offering launch |
| ASTS | -3.3 | AST SpaceMobile second quarter earnings fall short of estimates |
| SVV | -3.0 | Savers Value Village stock tumbles on 15M share offering |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy | +150 | +517 | +2,528 | |
| Financials | +68 | +419 | +2,925 | |
| Information Technology | +82 | +374 | +521 | |
| Materialsbullish reversal | +22 | +61 | -23 | |
| Health Care | -10 | -96 | -264 | |
| Communication Services | -12 | -128 | -400 | |
| Utilities | -34 | -168 | -874 | |
| Industrials | -42 | -174 | -698 | |
| Consumer Staples | -24 | -209 | -731 | |
| Real Estate | -118 | -279 | -1,598 | |
| Consumer Discretionary | -82 | -316 | -1,389 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Artificial Intelligence | +66.2 | +257 | |
| Oil Prices | +29.2 | +78 | |
| Employment | +15.2 | -6 | |
| FinTech | +14.8 | +28 | |
| Geopolitics | -20.8 | -9 | |
| Geopolitical Tension | -26.8 | -45 | |
| Inflation | -31.8 | -60 | |
| Interest Rates | -87.8 | -86 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Markov Regime Engine | UP | 50% |
| Macro Factor Gate | UP | 55% |
Consensus: BULLISH
Weekly index projection: +0.73% (80% band -1.89% to +2.12%).
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 11.9% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 51% |
| Variance risk premium | +2.8 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.57% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.50% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.60% |
Premium in normal range — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.06 in-sample / 0.10 OOS, worst 0.06) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil & Gas | 0.82 | 1.7h | ELEVATED |
| Geopolitics | 0.70 | 1.7h | ELEVATED |
| Stock Market | 0.69 | 1.4h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Artificial Intelligence | 0.68 | 0.5h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Interest Rates | 0.68 | 1.0h | SUBCRITICAL |
| M&A | 0.56 | 1.0h | SUBCRITICAL |
| FinTech | 0.54 | 1.4h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Aerospace & Defense | 0.47 | 1.2h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 2 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 1,277 |
| Projected close of day | 2,422 |
| Daily average | 1,337 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 1.02× |
| Total in corpus | 151,117 |
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.