real time stock market sentiment dashboard
A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login, no sign-up.
Regime read: LONG · expected +2.65% ± 5.37% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.49 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Bull (67.3% posterior, +42.9%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.1106%/day and dominates. Net +0.1102%/day.
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLTR | +7.2 | Information Technology | 75.6 | 2.41 | 68% | Is Spider-Man the reason Palantir stock is up 34%?profitableExtended FWD P/EExpensive PEGY (>2) |
| RIOT | +6.5 | Financials | -24.0 | — | 47% | Why Anthropic’s $9 Billion Deal With Riot Is a Watershed Moment for Bitcoin MinersFwd P/E < 15EV/EBITDA < 10UNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
| COIN | +6.0 | Financials | 48.9 | — | 4% | Coinbase Opens Abu Dhabi Tokenization Hub With FSRA ApprovalExtended FWD P/EMean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
| SE | +3.9 | Consumer Discretionary | 24.9 | 1.65 | 45% | Why Sea Limited Stock Rocketed Higher on Tuesdayprofitable |
| RKLB | +3.6 | Industrials | 9,605.0 | — | 37% | Rocket Lab Reports Earnings Tonight: What Do Prediction Markets Say About Neutron Launches in 2026?EV/EBITDA < 10Extended FWD P/EMean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ERO | LONG | 42.4% | -0.04 | -0.22 | +0.06 | High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum; Quality: F-score 9/9 |
| 2 | APO | LONG | 42.4% | -0.04 | -0.22 | +0.06 | High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum |
| 3 | ABCL | LONG | 42.4% | -0.04 | -0.22 | +0.06 | Despair reversion: sentiment -8 but undervalued |
| 4 | MNDY | LONG | 42.4% | -0.04 | -0.22 | +0.06 | Despair reversion: sentiment -4 but undervalued |
| 5 | SE | LONG | 41.5% | -0.24 | -0.56 | -1.37 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 4.0); Quality: F-score 8/9; ⚠ Earnings in 0d — event risk inside hold window |
| 6 | NBIS | LONG | 41.2% | -0.23 | -0.46 | -0.80 | Accelerating velocity +7.4 (2 mentions/12h); ⚠ Earnings in 1d — event risk inside hold window |
| 7 | COIN | LONG | 41.6% | -0.19 | -0.43 | -0.83 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 6.0); Accelerating velocity +16.6 (5 mentions/12h); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Mean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
| 8 | RIOT | LONG | 41.5% | -0.24 | -0.56 | -1.37 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 6.5); ⚠ UNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
Engine hit rate 43.4% over 235 scored calls (lower bound 37.2%), average net alpha -0.262%. Serving: rules.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
A 22% drop on a sales miss indicates a violent market re-rating of growth expectations and valuation premiums, shifting the stock from a 'growth' narrative to a 'fundamental' reality.
2026-08-11 17:42A massive 17% jump following a blowout earnings beat suggests strong momentum and pricing power, but conviction is capped by the potential for 'sell the news' profit-taking and macro travel spending risks.
2026-08-10 10:50Nielsen's $2.15 billion takeover of DoubleVerify is a major bullish catalyst, but the stock will likely trade at a discount to the offer price due to deal risk and the correctness of the pre-announcement run-up.
2026-08-08 12:21The announcement of a cash buyout to take the company private is a primary catalyst for price convergence toward the offer price, though conviction is tempered by the M&A arbitrage spread and potential 'sell the news' dynamics.
2026-08-08 11:40Datadog's 19% plunge as a leader of the software sector slide suggests systemic risk and valuation reset rather than a temporary dip, signaling a high probability of continued downward pressure.
2026-08-08 05:11A price collapse following an earnings beat is a classic institutional distribution signal, indicating that the 'beat' was likely priced in or based on a lowered bar, suggesting a further downward trajectory.
2026-08-07 22:02The withdrawal of guidance and dividend slash signals a fundamental breakdown in cash flow visibility and management credibility, outweighing any 'blood in the streets' recovery narrative.
2026-08-07 14:53A 28% plunge following earnings is a violent confirmation of structural failure and fundamental devaluation rather than a temporary overreaction.
2026-08-06 21:46A simultaneous earnings miss and weakened revenue outlook provides a classic 'double whammy' that triggers an aggressive re-rating of the growth narrative, outweighing any short-term dip-buying opportunities.
2026-08-06 20:25AppLovin's earnings fall is acting as a systemic catalyst for the Nasdaq, indicating a fundamental devaluation of AI-driven ad-tech valuations rather than a temporary dip.
2026-08-06 12:49Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
| Ticker | Velocity | Vol | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| COIN | +16.6 | 5 | Coinbase Opens Abu Dhabi Tokenization Hub With FSRA Approval |
| RKLB | +10.6 | 4 | Rocket Lab Reports Earnings Tonight: What Do Prediction Markets Say About Neutron Launches in 2026? |
| NBIS | +7.4 | 2 | Nebius Group's Next Earnings Report on Aug. 12 Could Send the Stock Soaring. Here's Why. |
Change in scored coverage over the last 12 hours versus the prior 12.
| ONON | -4.1 | On Holding Q2 2026 earnings: stock drops 22% on sales miss |
| DDOG | -3.3 | Datadog (DDOG) Grows Fast, Then Gets Punished For Slowing Down |
| LB | -3.0 | LandBridge Holdings director sells $93.8m of LB stock |
| ABCL | -2.8 | AbCellera stock falls on $200M public offering launch |
| LIFE | -2.8 | Why Life360 Stock Is Crashing Today |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy | +166 | +578 | +2,507 | |
| Financials | +64 | +423 | +2,942 | |
| Information Technology | +74 | +356 | +515 | |
| Materialsbullish reversal | +32 | +69 | -9 | |
| Health Care | -12 | -101 | -272 | |
| Communication Services | -17 | -134 | -407 | |
| Utilities | -38 | -179 | -879 | |
| Industrials | -40 | -191 | -687 | |
| Consumer Staples | -22 | -202 | -728 | |
| Real Estate | -122 | -285 | -1,611 | |
| Consumer Discretionary | -81 | -338 | -1,367 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Artificial Intelligence | +65.8 | +254 | |
| Oil Prices | +32.0 | +84 | |
| AI Infrastructure | +20.2 | +29 | |
| Employment | +18.7 | -3 | |
| Market Volatility | -20.5 | -30 | |
| Geopolitical Tension | -31.0 | -50 | |
| Inflation | -63.2 | -89 | |
| Interest Rates | -110.2 | -107 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Markov Regime Engine | UP | 50% |
| Macro Factor Gate | UP | 55% |
Consensus: BULLISH
Weekly index projection: +0.73% (80% band -1.82% to +2.10%).
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 11.9% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 51% |
| Variance risk premium | +2.8 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.57% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.50% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.60% |
Premium in normal range — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.06 in-sample / 0.10 OOS, worst 0.06) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil & Gas | 0.81 | 1.5h | ELEVATED |
| Artificial Intelligence | 0.66 | 0.5h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Stock Market | 0.66 | 1.3h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Interest Rates | 0.65 | 0.9h | SUBCRITICAL |
| M&A | 0.61 | 1.3h | SUBCRITICAL |
| FinTech | 0.50 | 1.3h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Crypto & Digital Assets | 0.49 | 1.0h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Aerospace & Defense | 0.45 | 1.0h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 310 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 1,277 |
| Projected close of day | 2,057 |
| Daily average | 1,340 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 1.21× |
| Total in corpus | 151,425 |
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.