real time stock market sentiment dashboard
A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login, no sign-up.
Regime read: LONG · expected +2.65% ± 5.37% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.49 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Bull (67.3% posterior, +42.9%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.1106%/day and dominates. Net +0.1102%/day.
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NBIS | +12.4 | Communication Services | -58.4 | 0.63 | 55% | Nebius Soars As Bigger Loss Tops Views, Revenue BeatsprofitablePEGY < 0.75Fwd P/E < 15 |
| PLTR | +7.8 | Information Technology | 75.6 | 2.41 | 68% | Palantir Just Crushed Earnings Again. These 2 Legacy Defense Stocks Are the Cheaper Way to Play the Same Budget.profitableExtended FWD P/EExpensive PEGY (>2) |
| ABNB | +6.5 | Consumer Discretionary | 30.2 | 1.71 | 97% | Is It Too Late to Buy Airbnb After Its Monster Rally? What the Numbers SayprofitablePrice > Analyst TargetNear 52w High |
| RIOT | +6.1 | Financials | -24.0 | — | 47% | Riot Shares Jump After $9.1B AI Lease and Q2 Revenue BeatFwd P/E < 15EV/EBITDA < 10UNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
| COIN | +5.0 | Financials | 49.2 | — | 4% | New York City Council announces probe into prediction market platforms’ marketing strategiesExtended FWD P/EUNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
NO TRADE: every ranked play has a negative expected net gain after costs in the current regime. The table is a relative ordering, not a buy list.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ACN | LONG | 44.1% | -0.23 | -0.25 | -0.28 | High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum |
| 2 | CRWV | LONG | 43.8% | -0.22 | -0.41 | -0.71 | Accelerating velocity +11.0 (3 mentions/12h) |
| 3 | ASTS | LONG | 43.8% | -0.22 | -0.41 | -0.71 | Accelerating velocity +9.6 (3 mentions/12h) |
| 4 | CAVA | LONG | 41.2% | -0.23 | -0.46 | -0.80 | Accelerating velocity +10.4 (4 mentions/12h) |
| 5 | HIMS | LONG | 41.2% | -0.23 | -0.46 | -0.80 | Accelerating velocity +8.8 (2 mentions/12h) |
| 6 | NBIS | LONG | 41.3% | -0.23 | -0.51 | -1.07 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 12.5); Valuation corroborated (PEGY/fwd-PE/EV checks); Accelerating velocity +22.4 (6 mentions/12h); ⚠ Earnings in 1d — event risk inside hold window |
| 7 | RIOT | LONG | 41.5% | -0.24 | -0.56 | -1.37 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 6.2); ⚠ UNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
| 8 | COIN | LONG | 41.5% | -0.24 | -0.56 | -1.37 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 5.1); CIO meta-model current selection; ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; UNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
Engine hit rate 42.9% over 238 scored calls (lower bound 36.7%), average net alpha -0.293%. Serving: rules.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
A 22% drop on a sales miss indicates a violent market re-rating of growth expectations and valuation premiums, shifting the stock from a 'growth' narrative to a 'fundamental' reality.
2026-08-11 17:42A massive 17% jump following a blowout earnings beat suggests strong momentum and pricing power, but conviction is capped by the potential for 'sell the news' profit-taking and macro travel spending risks.
2026-08-10 10:50Nielsen's $2.15 billion takeover of DoubleVerify is a major bullish catalyst, but the stock will likely trade at a discount to the offer price due to deal risk and the correctness of the pre-announcement run-up.
2026-08-08 12:21The announcement of a cash buyout to take the company private is a primary catalyst for price convergence toward the offer price, though conviction is tempered by the M&A arbitrage spread and potential 'sell the news' dynamics.
2026-08-08 11:40Datadog's 19% plunge as a leader of the software sector slide suggests systemic risk and valuation reset rather than a temporary dip, signaling a high probability of continued downward pressure.
2026-08-08 05:11A price collapse following an earnings beat is a classic institutional distribution signal, indicating that the 'beat' was likely priced in or based on a lowered bar, suggesting a further downward trajectory.
2026-08-07 22:02The withdrawal of guidance and dividend slash signals a fundamental breakdown in cash flow visibility and management credibility, outweighing any 'blood in the streets' recovery narrative.
2026-08-07 14:53A 28% plunge following earnings is a violent confirmation of structural failure and fundamental devaluation rather than a temporary overreaction.
2026-08-06 21:46A simultaneous earnings miss and weakened revenue outlook provides a classic 'double whammy' that triggers an aggressive re-rating of the growth narrative, outweighing any short-term dip-buying opportunities.
2026-08-06 20:25AppLovin's earnings fall is acting as a systemic catalyst for the Nasdaq, indicating a fundamental devaluation of AI-driven ad-tech valuations rather than a temporary dip.
2026-08-06 12:49Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
| Ticker | Velocity | Vol | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| NBIS | +26.4 | 7 | Nebius Stock Soars 15% as Earnings Beat Bolsters AI Rally. Michael Burry May Be Helping. |
| CRWV | +11.0 | 3 | Stock Market Today: Dow Rises Ahead Of Inflation Data; Nvidia Partner CoreWeave Soars On Results (Live Coverage) |
| CAVA | +10.4 | 4 | Cava Q2 2026 earnings beat on same-store sales, traffic gains |
| ASTS | +9.6 | 3 | AST SpaceMobile Q2 Earnings Call Highlights |
| HIMS | +8.8 | 2 | Hill & Smith raises FY26 outlook after first half beats estimates |
Change in scored coverage over the last 12 hours versus the prior 12.
| ONON | -3.4 | On Holding Q2 2026 earnings: stock drops 22% on sales miss |
| MNDY | -3.3 | Why Monday.com Sank Today |
| APP | -3.2 | AppLovin Is Down Over 50% in 2026: Falling Knife or Fire Sale? |
| DDOG | -2.6 | Datadog (DDOG) Grows Fast, Then Gets Punished For Slowing Down |
| LB | -2.4 | LandBridge Holdings director sells $93.8m of LB stock |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy | +157 | +646 | +2,474 | |
| Financials | +124 | +476 | +2,919 | |
| Information Technology | +87 | +386 | +561 | |
| Materials | +28 | +70 | +23 | |
| Health Care | -7 | -108 | -266 | |
| Communication Services | -23 | -142 | -406 | |
| Utilities | -67 | -198 | -888 | |
| Industrials | -58 | -208 | -689 | |
| Consumer Staples | -42 | -224 | -725 | |
| Real Estate | -101 | -308 | -1,632 | |
| Consumer Discretionary | -102 | -390 | -1,373 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Artificial Intelligence | +98.3 | +290 | |
| Cloud Computing | +31.8 | +57 | |
| AI Infrastructure | +26.8 | +37 | |
| M&A | +23.0 | +38 | |
| Market Volatility | -20.8 | -30 | |
| Geopolitical Tension | -24.3 | -46 | |
| Interest Rates | -74.2 | -75 | |
| Inflation | -78.0 | -105 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Markov Regime Engine | UP | 50% |
| Macro Factor Gate | UP | 55% |
Consensus: BULLISH
Weekly index projection: +0.72% (80% band -1.74% to +2.04%).
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 11.9% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 51% |
| Variance risk premium | +2.6 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.57% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.51% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.60% |
Premium in normal range — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.06 in-sample / 0.10 OOS, worst 0.06) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation | 0.80 | 1.3h | ELEVATED |
| Oil & Gas | 0.78 | 1.3h | ELEVATED |
| Interest Rates | 0.69 | 0.9h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Artificial Intelligence | 0.65 | 0.5h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Stock Market | 0.61 | 1.1h | SUBCRITICAL |
| M&A | 0.57 | 1.5h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Crypto & Digital Assets | 0.49 | 1.0h | SUBCRITICAL |
| FinTech | 0.44 | 1.2h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 812 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 1,277 |
| Projected close of day | 1,803 |
| Daily average | 1,344 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 1.29× |
| Total in corpus | 151,927 |
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.