real time stock market sentiment dashboard
A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login, no sign-up.
Regime read: LONG · expected +2.77% ± 5.26% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.53 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Bull (79.3% posterior, +42.9%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.1279%/day and dominates. Net +0.1277%/day.
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NBIS | +20.8 | Communication Services | -73.1 | 0.63 | 76% | Nebius Jumps 20% Days After Michael Burry Said His AI Shorts Were Like ‘Shooting Fish in a Barrel’profitablePEGY < 0.75Fwd P/E < 15 |
| PLTR | +9.7 | Information Technology | 73.5 | 2.41 | 63% | Does Palantir’s Agentic Moat Finally Justify Its Premium Valuation Multiple?profitableExtended FWD P/EExpensive PEGY (>2) |
| CAVA | +6.6 | Consumer Discretionary | 92.3 | — | 46% | CAVA Group shares jump as quarterly sales beat, cyclospora fears easeExtended FWD P/EMean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
| ABNB | +5.8 | Consumer Discretionary | 29.4 | 1.71 | 91% | Is It Too Late to Buy Airbnb After Its Monster Rally? What the Numbers SayprofitableNear 52w High |
| RIOT | +5.4 | Financials | -24.3 | — | 49% | Riot Shares Jump After $9.1B AI Lease and Q2 Revenue BeatFwd P/E < 15EV/EBITDA < 10UNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
NO TRADE: every ranked play has a negative expected net gain after costs in the current regime. The table is a relative ordering, not a buy list.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ACN | LONG | 44.9% | -0.23 | -0.25 | -0.28 | High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum |
| 2 | CRWV | LONG | 44.3% | -0.22 | -0.41 | -0.71 | Accelerating velocity +11.0 (3 mentions/12h) |
| 3 | ASTS | LONG | 44.3% | -0.22 | -0.41 | -0.71 | Accelerating velocity +9.6 (3 mentions/12h) |
| 4 | NBIS | LONG | 41.9% | -0.23 | -0.51 | -1.07 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 20.9); Valuation corroborated (PEGY/fwd-PE/EV checks); Accelerating velocity +37.6 (10 mentions/12h); ⚠ Earnings in 1d — event risk inside hold window |
| 5 | HIMS | LONG | 41.7% | -0.23 | -0.46 | -0.80 | Accelerating velocity +8.8 (2 mentions/12h) |
| 6 | ABNB | LONG | 42.2% | -0.24 | -0.56 | -1.37 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 5.8); ⚠ Near 52w High |
| 7 | RIOT | LONG | 42.2% | -0.24 | -0.56 | -1.37 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 5.5); ⚠ UNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
| 8 | CAVA | LONG | 41.9% | -0.23 | -0.51 | -1.07 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 6.7); Accelerating velocity +20.4 (7 mentions/12h); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Mean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
Engine hit rate 42.7% over 241 scored calls (lower bound 36.7%), average net alpha -0.306%. Serving: rules.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
Safety concerns regarding Vykat in a biotech pipeline are fundamentally bearish catalysts as they increase regulatory risk and probability of clinical failure, outweighing speculative 'blood in the streets' buying opportunities.
2026-08-12 13:10A 22% drop on a sales miss indicates a violent market re-rating of growth expectations and valuation premiums, shifting the stock from a 'growth' narrative to a 'fundamental' reality.
2026-08-11 17:42A massive 17% jump following a blowout earnings beat suggests strong momentum and pricing power, but conviction is capped by the potential for 'sell the news' profit-taking and macro travel spending risks.
2026-08-10 10:50Nielsen's $2.15 billion takeover of DoubleVerify is a major bullish catalyst, but the stock will likely trade at a discount to the offer price due to deal risk and the correctness of the pre-announcement run-up.
2026-08-08 12:21The announcement of a cash buyout to take the company private is a primary catalyst for price convergence toward the offer price, though conviction is tempered by the M&A arbitrage spread and potential 'sell the news' dynamics.
2026-08-08 11:40Datadog's 19% plunge as a leader of the software sector slide suggests systemic risk and valuation reset rather than a temporary dip, signaling a high probability of continued downward pressure.
2026-08-08 05:11A price collapse following an earnings beat is a classic institutional distribution signal, indicating that the 'beat' was likely priced in or based on a lowered bar, suggesting a further downward trajectory.
2026-08-07 22:02The withdrawal of guidance and dividend slash signals a fundamental breakdown in cash flow visibility and management credibility, outweighing any 'blood in the streets' recovery narrative.
2026-08-07 14:53A 28% plunge following earnings is a violent confirmation of structural failure and fundamental devaluation rather than a temporary overreaction.
2026-08-06 21:46A simultaneous earnings miss and weakened revenue outlook provides a classic 'double whammy' that triggers an aggressive re-rating of the growth narrative, outweighing any short-term dip-buying opportunities.
2026-08-06 20:25Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
| Ticker | Velocity | Vol | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| NBIS | +37.6 | 10 | Nebius Jumps 20% Days After Michael Burry Said His AI Shorts Were Like ‘Shooting Fish in a Barrel’ |
| CAVA | +20.4 | 7 | CAVA Group shares jump as quarterly sales beat, cyclospora fears ease |
| CRWV | +11.0 | 3 | Stock Market Today: Dow Rises Ahead Of Inflation Data; Nvidia Partner CoreWeave Soars On Results (Live Coverage) |
| ASTS | +9.6 | 3 | AST SpaceMobile Q2 Earnings Call Highlights |
| HIMS | +8.8 | 2 | Hill & Smith raises FY26 outlook after first half beats estimates |
Change in scored coverage over the last 12 hours versus the prior 12.
| DDOG | -3.7 | Baron Opportunity Fund Trimmed Datadog (DDOG) After Rally |
| ONON | -3.0 | On Holding Q2 2026 earnings: stock drops 22% on sales miss |
| MNDY | -2.9 | Why Monday.com Sank Today |
| APP | -2.8 | AppLovin Is Down Over 50% in 2026: Falling Knife or Fire Sale? |
| NBIX | -2.5 | Neurocrine Biosciences stock falls on Vykat safety concerns |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy | +148 | +629 | +2,411 | |
| Financials | +143 | +515 | +2,923 | |
| Information Technology | +107 | +408 | +612 | |
| Materials | +17 | +63 | +16 | |
| Health Care | -19 | -108 | -264 | |
| Communication Services | -34 | -149 | -408 | |
| Utilities | -65 | -205 | -891 | |
| Industrials | -58 | -216 | -683 | |
| Consumer Staples | -52 | -230 | -725 | |
| Real Estate | -94 | -317 | -1,634 | |
| Consumer Discretionary | -93 | -393 | -1,356 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Artificial Intelligence | +142.7 | +336 | |
| Cloud Computing | +35.3 | +62 | |
| Employment | +21.8 | 0 | |
| Blockchain | +20.5 | +27 | |
| Stock Market | -19.5 | -8 | |
| Geopolitical Tension | -26.7 | -48 | |
| Interest Rates | -63.3 | -67 | |
| Inflation | -67.3 | -95 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Markov Regime Engine | UP | 50% |
| Macro Factor Gate | UP | 55% |
Consensus: BULLISH
Weekly index projection: +0.72% (80% band -1.80% to +2.05%).
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 11.4% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 50% |
| Variance risk premium | +2.6 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.57% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.50% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.60% |
Premium in normal range — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.06 in-sample / 0.12 OOS, worst 0.06) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation | 0.79 | 1.2h | ELEVATED |
| Oil & Gas | 0.78 | 1.4h | ELEVATED |
| Interest Rates | 0.69 | 0.9h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Artificial Intelligence | 0.68 | 0.5h | SUBCRITICAL |
| M&A | 0.58 | 1.5h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Stock Market | 0.57 | 1.1h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Cloud & Data Centers | 0.52 | 1.2h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Crypto & Digital Assets | 0.51 | 1.0h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 1,117 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 1,277 |
| Projected close of day | 1,716 |
| Daily average | 1,347 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 1.24× |
| Total in corpus | 152,232 |
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.