real time stock market sentiment dashboard
A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login, no sign-up.
Regime read: LONG · expected +2.78% ± 5.26% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.53 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Bull (79.3% posterior, +43.0%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.1281%/day and dominates. Net +0.1279%/day.
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NBIS | +23.1 | Communication Services | -78.4 | 0.63 | 83% | Nebius Group (NBIS) Price Forecast: Breakout Opens Path Toward $395profitablePEGY < 0.75Fwd P/E < 15 |
| PLTR | +14.2 | Information Technology | 73.9 | 2.41 | 64% | Palantir's Sovereign AI Boom Is Almost Entirely In AmericaprofitableExtended FWD P/EExpensive PEGY (>2) |
| RIOT | +8.9 | Financials | -21.7 | — | 48% | KBW maintains ‘Outperform’ rating on Riot Platforms with $35 price target following Anthropic dealFwd P/E < 15EV/EBITDA < 10UNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
| ABNB | +8.4 | Consumer Discretionary | 29.4 | 1.71 | 91% | Airbnb CEO Brian Chesky Says AI Is 'The Best Thing to Have Happened' to His Company — And That the Millions Spent 'Pales In Comparison' to What It Brings BackprofitableNear 52w High |
| CAVA | +7.8 | Consumer Discretionary | 93.3 | — | 47% | CAVA stock rises 16% after strong traffic gains boost market value by $1.13 billionExtended FWD P/EMean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | YPF | LONG | 45.2% | -0.20 | -0.25 | -0.29 | High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum |
| 2 | ACN | LONG | 45.2% | -0.20 | -0.25 | -0.29 | High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum |
| 3 | SVM | LONG | 45.2% | -0.20 | -0.25 | -0.29 | Despair reversion: sentiment -4 but undervalued |
| 4 | FOUR | LONG | 45.2% | -0.20 | -0.25 | -0.29 | Despair reversion: sentiment -4 but undervalued |
| 5 | LITE | LONG | 44.5% | -0.20 | -0.41 | -0.70 | Accelerating velocity +5.6 (2 mentions/12h); CIO meta-model current selection; Quality: F-score 7/9 |
| 6 | NBIS | LONG | 42.2% | -0.21 | -0.49 | -1.06 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 23.2); Valuation corroborated (PEGY/fwd-PE/EV checks); Accelerating velocity +27.4 (9 mentions/12h); ⚠ Earnings in 0d — event risk inside hold window |
| 7 | BE | LONG | 41.9% | -0.21 | -0.45 | -0.79 | Accelerating velocity +5.2 (2 mentions/12h) |
| 8 | ABNB | LONG | 42.6% | -0.20 | -0.54 | -1.36 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 8.5); ⚠ Near 52w High |
Engine hit rate 42.7% over 241 scored calls (lower bound 36.7%), average net alpha -0.306%. Serving: rules.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
Safety concerns regarding Vykat in a biotech pipeline are fundamentally bearish catalysts as they increase regulatory risk and probability of clinical failure, outweighing speculative 'blood in the streets' buying opportunities.
2026-08-12 13:10A 22% drop on a sales miss indicates a violent market re-rating of growth expectations and valuation premiums, shifting the stock from a 'growth' narrative to a 'fundamental' reality.
2026-08-11 17:42A massive 17% jump following a blowout earnings beat suggests strong momentum and pricing power, but conviction is capped by the potential for 'sell the news' profit-taking and macro travel spending risks.
2026-08-10 10:50Nielsen's $2.15 billion takeover of DoubleVerify is a major bullish catalyst, but the stock will likely trade at a discount to the offer price due to deal risk and the correctness of the pre-announcement run-up.
2026-08-08 12:21The announcement of a cash buyout to take the company private is a primary catalyst for price convergence toward the offer price, though conviction is tempered by the M&A arbitrage spread and potential 'sell the news' dynamics.
2026-08-08 11:40Datadog's 19% plunge as a leader of the software sector slide suggests systemic risk and valuation reset rather than a temporary dip, signaling a high probability of continued downward pressure.
2026-08-08 05:11A price collapse following an earnings beat is a classic institutional distribution signal, indicating that the 'beat' was likely priced in or based on a lowered bar, suggesting a further downward trajectory.
2026-08-07 22:02The withdrawal of guidance and dividend slash signals a fundamental breakdown in cash flow visibility and management credibility, outweighing any 'blood in the streets' recovery narrative.
2026-08-07 14:53A 28% plunge following earnings is a violent confirmation of structural failure and fundamental devaluation rather than a temporary overreaction.
2026-08-06 21:46A simultaneous earnings miss and weakened revenue outlook provides a classic 'double whammy' that triggers an aggressive re-rating of the growth narrative, outweighing any short-term dip-buying opportunities.
2026-08-06 20:25Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
| Ticker | Velocity | Vol | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| NBIS | +27.4 | 9 | Nebius Group (NBIS) Price Forecast: Breakout Opens Path Toward $395 |
| CAVA | +11.2 | 4 | CAVA stock rises 16% after strong traffic gains boost market value by $1.13 billion |
| PLTR | +9.2 | 5 | Palantir's Sovereign AI Boom Is Almost Entirely In America |
| LITE | +5.6 | 2 | What Lumentum options are signaling after the stock’s 15% surge |
| BE | +5.2 | 2 | Bloom Energy Jumps 13% as Nebius Picks Its Fuel Cells for AI Data Center, FuelCell Climbs 11% |
Change in scored coverage over the last 12 hours versus the prior 12.
| OKLO | -4.1 | Why Oklo's First-Ever Revenue Is Not Enough to Stop OKLO Stock's Decline |
| ACM | -4.0 | AECOM touts data center pipeline amid fiscal Q3 loss |
| DDOG | -3.8 | Baron Opportunity Fund Trimmed Datadog (DDOG) After Rally |
| SVM | -3.5 | Silvercorp Metals misses fiscal Q1 earnings estimates as costs rise and China operations pause |
| FOUR | -3.2 | Shift4 racked |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy | +104 | +590 | +2,356 | |
| Financials | +150 | +506 | +2,892 | |
| Information Technology | +114 | +416 | +674 | |
| Materials | +8 | +72 | +18 | |
| Health Care | -18 | -102 | -260 | |
| Communication Services | -30 | -140 | -400 | |
| Utilities | -66 | -190 | -886 | |
| Industrials | -34 | -214 | -660 | |
| Consumer Staples | -50 | -226 | -724 | |
| Real Estate | -104 | -320 | -1,650 | |
| Consumer Discretionary | -72 | -396 | -1,356 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Artificial Intelligence | +180.8 | +378 | |
| Cloud Computing | +37.7 | +64 | |
| AI Infrastructure | +28.0 | +40 | |
| Employment | +24.2 | +2 | |
| Semiconductors | -17.8 | +8 | |
| Geopolitical Tension | -18.3 | -41 | |
| Oil Prices | -29.0 | +27 | |
| Interest Rates | -50.7 | -56 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Markov Regime Engine | UP | 50% |
| Macro Factor Gate | UP | 55% |
Consensus: BULLISH
Weekly index projection: +0.70% (80% band -1.82% to +1.97%).
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 11.5% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 49% |
| Variance risk premium | +2.3 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.57% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.51% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.60% |
Premium in normal range — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.06 in-sample / 0.13 OOS, worst 0.06) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil & Gas | 0.78 | 1.7h | ELEVATED |
| Inflation | 0.73 | 1.1h | ELEVATED |
| Artificial Intelligence | 0.71 | 0.6h | ELEVATED |
| Interest Rates | 0.67 | 0.8h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Cloud & Data Centers | 0.57 | 1.3h | SUBCRITICAL |
| M&A | 0.56 | 1.4h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Crypto & Digital Assets | 0.56 | 1.1h | SUBCRITICAL |
| FinTech | 0.50 | 1.3h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 0 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 1,652 |
| Projected close of day | 0 |
| Daily average | 1,340 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 1.28× |
| Total in corpus | 152,767 |
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.