real time stock market sentiment dashboard
A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login, no sign-up.
Regime read: LONG · expected +2.78% ± 5.26% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.53 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Bull (79.3% posterior, +43.0%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.1281%/day and dominates. Net +0.1279%/day.
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NBIS | +21.4 | Communication Services | -76.6 | 0.63 | 83% | Nebius Group (NBIS) Price Forecast: Breakout Opens Path Toward $395profitablePEGY < 0.75Fwd P/E < 15 |
| PLTR | +13.2 | Information Technology | 73.9 | 2.41 | 64% | Palantir's Sovereign AI Boom Is Almost Entirely In AmericaprofitableExtended FWD P/EExpensive PEGY (>2) |
| RIOT | +8.3 | Financials | -21.7 | — | 48% | KBW maintains ‘Outperform’ rating on Riot Platforms with $35 price target following Anthropic dealFwd P/E < 15EV/EBITDA < 10UNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
| ABNB | +7.8 | Consumer Discretionary | 29.4 | 1.71 | 91% | Airbnb CEO Brian Chesky Says AI Is 'The Best Thing to Have Happened' to His Company — And That the Millions Spent 'Pales In Comparison' to What It Brings BackprofitableNear 52w High |
| CAVA | +7.2 | Consumer Discretionary | 93.9 | — | 47% | CAVA stock rises 16% after strong traffic gains boost market value by $1.13 billionExtended FWD P/EMean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | YPF | LONG | 45.2% | -0.20 | -0.25 | -0.30 | High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum |
| 2 | ACN | LONG | 45.2% | -0.20 | -0.25 | -0.30 | High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum |
| 3 | ONON | LONG | 45.2% | -0.20 | -0.25 | -0.30 | Despair reversion: sentiment -4 but undervalued |
| 4 | SVM | LONG | 45.2% | -0.20 | -0.25 | -0.30 | Despair reversion: sentiment -4 but undervalued |
| 5 | FOUR | LONG | 45.2% | -0.20 | -0.25 | -0.30 | Despair reversion: sentiment -4 but undervalued |
| 6 | NBIS | LONG | 42.2% | -0.21 | -0.49 | -1.06 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 21.4); Valuation corroborated (PEGY/fwd-PE/EV checks); Accelerating velocity +4.6 (4 mentions/12h); ⚠ Earnings in 0d — event risk inside hold window |
| 7 | BE | LONG | 41.9% | -0.21 | -0.45 | -0.79 | Accelerating velocity +5.2 (2 mentions/12h) |
| 8 | ENS | LONG | 41.9% | -0.21 | -0.45 | -0.79 | Accelerating velocity +4.0 (2 mentions/12h) |
Engine hit rate 42.7% over 241 scored calls (lower bound 36.7%), average net alpha -0.306%. Serving: rules.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
A tempered outlook due to underwhelming running-shoe sales in a high-multiple growth stock is a fundamental valuation reset catalyst rather than a temporary dip.
2026-08-13 00:13Safety concerns regarding Vykat in a biotech pipeline are fundamentally bearish catalysts as they increase regulatory risk and probability of clinical failure, outweighing speculative 'blood in the streets' buying opportunities.
2026-08-12 13:10A massive 17% jump following a blowout earnings beat suggests strong momentum and pricing power, but conviction is capped by the potential for 'sell the news' profit-taking and macro travel spending risks.
2026-08-10 10:50Nielsen's $2.15 billion takeover of DoubleVerify is a major bullish catalyst, but the stock will likely trade at a discount to the offer price due to deal risk and the correctness of the pre-announcement run-up.
2026-08-08 12:21The announcement of a cash buyout to take the company private is a primary catalyst for price convergence toward the offer price, though conviction is tempered by the M&A arbitrage spread and potential 'sell the news' dynamics.
2026-08-08 11:40Datadog's 19% plunge as a leader of the software sector slide suggests systemic risk and valuation reset rather than a temporary dip, signaling a high probability of continued downward pressure.
2026-08-08 05:11A price collapse following an earnings beat is a classic institutional distribution signal, indicating that the 'beat' was likely priced in or based on a lowered bar, suggesting a further downward trajectory.
2026-08-07 22:02The withdrawal of guidance and dividend slash signals a fundamental breakdown in cash flow visibility and management credibility, outweighing any 'blood in the streets' recovery narrative.
2026-08-07 14:53A 28% plunge following earnings is a violent confirmation of structural failure and fundamental devaluation rather than a temporary overreaction.
2026-08-06 21:46A simultaneous earnings miss and weakened revenue outlook provides a classic 'double whammy' that triggers an aggressive re-rating of the growth narrative, outweighing any short-term dip-buying opportunities.
2026-08-06 20:25Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
| Ticker | Velocity | Vol | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAVA | +7.6 | 3 | CAVA stock rises 16% after strong traffic gains boost market value by $1.13 billion |
| BE | +5.2 | 2 | Bloom Energy Jumps 13% as Nebius Picks Its Fuel Cells for AI Data Center, FuelCell Climbs 11% |
| NBIS | +4.6 | 4 | Nebius Group (NBIS) Price Forecast: Breakout Opens Path Toward $395 |
| PLTR | +4.4 | 4 | Palantir's Sovereign AI Boom Is Almost Entirely In America |
| ENS | +4.0 | 2 | Why is Enersys stock surging today? |
Change in scored coverage over the last 12 hours versus the prior 12.
| ONON | -6.4 | On Holding Tempers Outlook as Running-Shoe Sales Underwhelm |
| ACM | -3.7 | AECOM touts data center pipeline amid fiscal Q3 loss |
| DDOG | -3.6 | Baron Opportunity Fund Trimmed Datadog (DDOG) After Rally |
| SVM | -3.3 | Silvercorp Metals misses fiscal Q1 earnings estimates as costs rise and China operations pause |
| FOUR | -3.0 | Shift4 racked |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy | +102 | +584 | +2,347 | |
| Financials | +150 | +504 | +2,886 | |
| Information Technology | +128 | +425 | +697 | |
| Materials | +8 | +76 | +16 | |
| Health Care | -20 | -102 | -263 | |
| Communication Services | -26 | -137 | -397 | |
| Utilities | -70 | -189 | -887 | |
| Industrials | -40 | -218 | -662 | |
| Consumer Staples | -52 | -221 | -726 | |
| Real Estate | -108 | -326 | -1,657 | |
| Consumer Discretionary | -76 | -396 | -1,355 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Artificial Intelligence | +202.8 | +400 | |
| Cloud Computing | +41.0 | +66 | |
| AI Infrastructure | +27.8 | +40 | |
| Employment | +24.2 | +2 | |
| Housing Market | -17.3 | -23 | |
| Geopolitical Tension | -18.3 | -41 | |
| Oil Prices | -27.0 | +28 | |
| Interest Rates | -54.8 | -60 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Markov Regime Engine | UP | 50% |
| Macro Factor Gate | UP | 55% |
Consensus: BULLISH
Weekly index projection: +0.69% (80% band -1.79% to +1.86%).
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 11.5% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 49% |
| Variance risk premium | +2.3 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.57% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.51% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.60% |
Premium in normal range — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.06 in-sample / 0.13 OOS, worst 0.06) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil & Gas | 0.79 | 1.7h | ELEVATED |
| Inflation | 0.75 | 1.1h | ELEVATED |
| Artificial Intelligence | 0.72 | 0.6h | ELEVATED |
| Interest Rates | 0.68 | 0.9h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Cloud & Data Centers | 0.58 | 1.3h | SUBCRITICAL |
| M&A | 0.55 | 1.4h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Crypto & Digital Assets | 0.52 | 1.1h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Aerospace & Defense | 0.48 | 1.2h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 85 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 1,652 |
| Projected close of day | 2,502 |
| Daily average | 1,341 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 1.31× |
| Total in corpus | 152,852 |
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.