real time stock market sentiment dashboard
A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login, no sign-up.
Regime read: LONG · expected +2.78% ± 5.26% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.53 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Bull (79.3% posterior, +43.0%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.1281%/day and dominates. Net +0.1279%/day.
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NBIS | +17.6 | Communication Services | -78.2 | 0.63 | 83% | Nebius Group (NBIS) Price Forecast: Breakout Opens Path Toward $395profitablePEGY < 0.75Fwd P/E < 15 |
| PLTR | +11.8 | Information Technology | 73.9 | 2.41 | 64% | Cathie Wood Just Sold $21 Million of Palantir Stock. Here's Why That Could Be a Big Mistake.profitableExtended FWD P/EExpensive PEGY (>2) |
| RIOT | +10.1 | Financials | -21.7 | — | 48% | Anthropic Signs Huge Data Center Deal With Bitcoin Miner Riot PlatformsFwd P/E < 15EV/EBITDA < 10UNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
| ASTS | +6.7 | Information Technology | -61.3 | — | 39% | SpaceX Stock Drops Below Offer Price Again. AST Earnings Is Just One Reason.Fwd P/E < 15EV/EBITDA < 10UNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
| CAVA | +5.9 | Consumer Discretionary | 93.9 | — | 47% | CAVA stock rises 16% after strong traffic gains boost market value by $1.13 billionExtended FWD P/EUNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FSLR | LONG | 45.1% | -0.20 | -0.25 | -0.30 | High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum; CIO meta-model current selection; Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 2 | YPF | LONG | 45.1% | -0.20 | -0.25 | -0.30 | High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum |
| 3 | ACN | LONG | 45.1% | -0.20 | -0.25 | -0.30 | High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum |
| 4 | ONON | LONG | 45.1% | -0.20 | -0.25 | -0.30 | Despair reversion: sentiment -4 but undervalued |
| 5 | SVM | LONG | 45.1% | -0.20 | -0.25 | -0.30 | Despair reversion: sentiment -4 but undervalued |
| 6 | ASTS | LONG | 43.7% | -0.20 | -0.45 | -0.92 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 6.8); Accelerating velocity +12.0 (6 mentions/12h); ⚠ UNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
| 7 | RIOT | LONG | 43.7% | -0.20 | -0.45 | -0.92 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 10.2); Accelerating velocity +7.0 (4 mentions/12h); ⚠ UNPROFITABLE - elevated risk; ⚠ Weak fundamentals: F-score 2/9 |
| 8 | ENS | LONG | 41.7% | -0.21 | -0.45 | -0.79 | Accelerating velocity +4.0 (2 mentions/12h) |
Engine hit rate 43.0% over 244 scored calls (lower bound 37.0%), average net alpha -0.289%. Serving: rules.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
A tempered outlook due to underwhelming running-shoe sales in a high-multiple growth stock is a fundamental valuation reset catalyst rather than a temporary dip.
2026-08-13 00:13Safety concerns regarding Vykat in a biotech pipeline are fundamentally bearish catalysts as they increase regulatory risk and probability of clinical failure, outweighing speculative 'blood in the streets' buying opportunities.
2026-08-12 13:10A massive 17% jump following a blowout earnings beat suggests strong momentum and pricing power, but conviction is capped by the potential for 'sell the news' profit-taking and macro travel spending risks.
2026-08-10 10:50Nielsen's $2.15 billion takeover of DoubleVerify is a major bullish catalyst, but the stock will likely trade at a discount to the offer price due to deal risk and the correctness of the pre-announcement run-up.
2026-08-08 12:21The announcement of a cash buyout to take the company private is a primary catalyst for price convergence toward the offer price, though conviction is tempered by the M&A arbitrage spread and potential 'sell the news' dynamics.
2026-08-08 11:40Datadog's 19% plunge as a leader of the software sector slide suggests systemic risk and valuation reset rather than a temporary dip, signaling a high probability of continued downward pressure.
2026-08-08 05:11A price collapse following an earnings beat is a classic institutional distribution signal, indicating that the 'beat' was likely priced in or based on a lowered bar, suggesting a further downward trajectory.
2026-08-07 22:02The withdrawal of guidance and dividend slash signals a fundamental breakdown in cash flow visibility and management credibility, outweighing any 'blood in the streets' recovery narrative.
2026-08-07 14:53A 28% plunge following earnings is a violent confirmation of structural failure and fundamental devaluation rather than a temporary overreaction.
2026-08-06 21:46A simultaneous earnings miss and weakened revenue outlook provides a classic 'double whammy' that triggers an aggressive re-rating of the growth narrative, outweighing any short-term dip-buying opportunities.
2026-08-06 20:25Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
| Ticker | Velocity | Vol | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| ASTS | +12.0 | 6 | SpaceX Stock Drops Below Offer Price Again. AST Earnings Is Just One Reason. |
| RIOT | +7.0 | 4 | Anthropic Signs Huge Data Center Deal With Bitcoin Miner Riot Platforms |
| ENS | +4.0 | 2 | Why is Enersys stock surging today? |
Change in scored coverage over the last 12 hours versus the prior 12.
| ONON | -5.3 | On Holding Tempers Outlook as Running-Shoe Sales Underwhelm |
| UBER | -3.7 | Uber Freight says its investigating cyber incident following hacker claims |
| JOBY | -3.5 | Joby Aviation Stock Is Priced For An Aircraft That Has Yet To Fly A Passenger |
| ACM | -3.1 | AECOM touts data center pipeline amid fiscal Q3 loss |
| TLN | -2.9 | Talen Energy (TLN) Raised Guidance In August, So Why The Loss? |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy | +62 | +608 | +2,319 | |
| Financials | +170 | +538 | +2,916 | |
| Information Technology | +157 | +437 | +740 | |
| Materialsbearish reversal | -6 | +69 | +14 | |
| Health Care | -21 | -120 | -271 | |
| Communication Services | -30 | -148 | -403 | |
| Utilities | -59 | -193 | -887 | |
| Consumer Staples | -60 | -229 | -736 | |
| Industrials | -38 | -229 | -673 | |
| Real Estate | -100 | -328 | -1,655 | |
| Consumer Discretionary | -74 | -403 | -1,365 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Artificial Intelligence | +261.5 | +454 | |
| Cloud Computing | +39.7 | +63 | |
| Inflation | +37.8 | 0 | |
| AI Infrastructure | +24.3 | +37 | |
| Geopolitical Tension | -14.2 | -39 | |
| Housing Market | -17.3 | -23 | |
| Interest Rates | -30.7 | -39 | |
| Oil Prices | -50.3 | +11 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Markov Regime Engine | UP | 50% |
| Macro Factor Gate | UP | 55% |
Consensus: BULLISH
Weekly index projection: +0.75% (80% band -1.87% to +1.96%).
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 11.5% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 49% |
| Variance risk premium | +2.3 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.57% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.51% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.60% |
Premium in normal range — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.06 in-sample / 0.13 OOS, worst 0.06) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil & Gas | 0.78 | 1.6h | ELEVATED |
| Inflation | 0.75 | 1.2h | ELEVATED |
| Artificial Intelligence | 0.70 | 0.5h | ELEVATED |
| Interest Rates | 0.67 | 0.9h | SUBCRITICAL |
| M&A | 0.59 | 1.4h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Cloud & Data Centers | 0.54 | 1.2h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Crypto & Digital Assets | 0.47 | 1.1h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Semiconductors | 0.44 | 0.7h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 364 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 1,652 |
| Projected close of day | 2,389 |
| Daily average | 1,343 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 1.31× |
| Total in corpus | 153,131 |
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.