real time stock market sentiment dashboard
A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login, no sign-up.
Regime read: LONG · expected +2.78% ± 5.26% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.53 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Bull (79.3% posterior, +43.0%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.1281%/day and dominates. Net +0.1279%/day.
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLTR | +14.9 | Information Technology | 73.9 | 2.41 | 64% | Prediction: Palantir Will Hit $220 This Year. There's 1 Clear Reason Why.profitableExtended FWD P/EExpensive PEGY (>2) |
| CAVA | +10.0 | Consumer Discretionary | 93.9 | — | 47% | Cava Traffic Gains Boost Quarterly ProfitExtended FWD P/EMean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
| RIOT | +8.4 | Financials | -21.7 | — | 48% | Anthropic Signs Huge Data Center Deal With Bitcoin Miner Riot PlatformsFwd P/E < 15EV/EBITDA < 10UNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
| NBIS | +5.9 | Communication Services | -78.2 | 0.63 | 83% | Nebius Earnings Preview: Michael Burry Is Short but Prediction Markets See Nvidia, Meta Taking Center StagePEGY < 0.75Fwd P/E < 15UNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
| ASTS | +5.6 | Information Technology | -61.3 | — | 39% | SpaceX Stock Drops Below Offer Price Again. AST Earnings Is Just One Reason.Fwd P/E < 15EV/EBITDA < 10UNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FSLR | LONG | 45.1% | -0.20 | -0.25 | -0.30 | High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum; CIO meta-model current selection; Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 2 | ONON | LONG | 45.1% | -0.20 | -0.25 | -0.30 | Despair reversion: sentiment -5 but undervalued |
| 3 | UPWK | LONG | 45.1% | -0.20 | -0.25 | -0.30 | Despair reversion: sentiment -4 but undervalued |
| 4 | SOFI | LONG | 44.2% | -0.20 | -0.41 | -0.71 | Accelerating velocity +4.2 (2 mentions/12h); ⚠ Weak fundamentals: F-score 2/9 |
| 5 | ASTS | LONG | 43.7% | -0.20 | -0.45 | -0.92 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 5.6); Accelerating velocity +12.0 (4 mentions/12h); ⚠ UNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
| 6 | GM | LONG | 41.7% | -0.21 | -0.45 | -0.79 | Accelerating velocity +4.4 (2 mentions/12h) |
| 7 | NBIS | LONG | 42.6% | -0.20 | -0.53 | -1.38 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 6.0); ⚠ UNPROFITABLE - elevated risk; ⚠ Earnings in 0d — event risk inside hold window |
| 8 | RIOT | LONG | 42.6% | -0.20 | -0.53 | -1.38 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 8.4); ⚠ UNPROFITABLE - elevated risk; ⚠ Weak fundamentals: F-score 2/9 |
Engine hit rate 43.0% over 249 scored calls (lower bound 37.0%), average net alpha -0.303%. Serving: rules.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
A tempered outlook due to underwhelming running-shoe sales in a high-multiple growth stock is a fundamental valuation reset catalyst rather than a temporary dip.
2026-08-13 00:13Safety concerns regarding Vykat in a biotech pipeline are fundamentally bearish catalysts as they increase regulatory risk and probability of clinical failure, outweighing speculative 'blood in the streets' buying opportunities.
2026-08-12 13:10A massive 17% jump following a blowout earnings beat suggests strong momentum and pricing power, but conviction is capped by the potential for 'sell the news' profit-taking and macro travel spending risks.
2026-08-10 10:50Nielsen's $2.15 billion takeover of DoubleVerify is a major bullish catalyst, but the stock will likely trade at a discount to the offer price due to deal risk and the correctness of the pre-announcement run-up.
2026-08-08 12:21The announcement of a cash buyout to take the company private is a primary catalyst for price convergence toward the offer price, though conviction is tempered by the M&A arbitrage spread and potential 'sell the news' dynamics.
2026-08-08 11:40Datadog's 19% plunge as a leader of the software sector slide suggests systemic risk and valuation reset rather than a temporary dip, signaling a high probability of continued downward pressure.
2026-08-08 05:11A price collapse following an earnings beat is a classic institutional distribution signal, indicating that the 'beat' was likely priced in or based on a lowered bar, suggesting a further downward trajectory.
2026-08-07 22:02The withdrawal of guidance and dividend slash signals a fundamental breakdown in cash flow visibility and management credibility, outweighing any 'blood in the streets' recovery narrative.
2026-08-07 14:53A 28% plunge following earnings is a violent confirmation of structural failure and fundamental devaluation rather than a temporary overreaction.
2026-08-06 21:46A simultaneous earnings miss and weakened revenue outlook provides a classic 'double whammy' that triggers an aggressive re-rating of the growth narrative, outweighing any short-term dip-buying opportunities.
2026-08-06 20:25Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
| Ticker | Velocity | Vol | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| ASTS | +12.0 | 4 | SpaceX Stock Drops Below Offer Price Again. AST Earnings Is Just One Reason. |
| CAVA | +5.4 | 3 | Cava Traffic Gains Boost Quarterly Profit |
| GM | +4.4 | 2 | General Motors Sets Up $4.5 Billion Safety Net to Avoid Parts Shortages |
| SOFI | +4.2 | 2 | American Express vs. SoFi Technologies: Which Financial Stock Is a Better Buy in 2026? |
| PLTR | +0.6 | 4 | Prediction: Palantir Will Hit $220 This Year. There's 1 Clear Reason Why. |
Change in scored coverage over the last 12 hours versus the prior 12.
| ONON | -8.9 | Stock Market Today, Aug. 11: On Holding Stock Plunges on Worst Day Ever |
| APP | -4.6 | AppLovin Stock Is Today’s Worst Performer In the S&P 500. This Is Why. |
| UPWK | -4.4 | Stock Market Today, Aug. 11: Markets Slip as Oil Prices Rise, Upwork Tumbles on Mixed Earnings |
| UBER | -3.1 | Uber Freight says its investigating cyber incident following hacker claims |
| JOBY | -3.0 | Stock Market Today, Aug. 11: Joby Aviation Falls 4% After $500M Defense Acquisition and Stock Sale Plan |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy | +28 | +598 | +2,326 | |
| Financials | +114 | +536 | +2,871 | |
| Information Technology | +156 | +484 | +756 | |
| Materialsbearish reversal | -22 | +55 | +14 | |
| Health Care | -20 | -121 | -274 | |
| Communication Services | -24 | -143 | -401 | |
| Utilities | -26 | -188 | -879 | |
| Consumer Staples | -48 | -235 | -736 | |
| Industrials | -18 | -239 | -648 | |
| Real Estate | -102 | -340 | -1,666 | |
| Consumer Discretionary | -40 | -404 | -1,359 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Artificial Intelligence | +241.5 | +449 | |
| Inflation | +70.2 | +28 | |
| Cloud Computing | +30.8 | +56 | |
| AI Infrastructure | +21.3 | +35 | |
| Cost of Living | -11.7 | -13 | |
| Housing Market | -22.3 | -28 | |
| Interest Rates | -29.7 | -38 | |
| Oil Prices | -69.2 | -7 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Markov Regime Engine | UP | 50% |
| Macro Factor Gate | UP | 55% |
Consensus: BULLISH
Weekly index projection: +0.76% (80% band -1.85% to +2.00%).
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 11.5% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 49% |
| Variance risk premium | +2.3 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.57% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.50% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.60% |
Premium in normal range — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.06 in-sample / 0.13 OOS, worst 0.06) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil & Gas | 0.78 | 1.5h | ELEVATED |
| Artificial Intelligence | 0.74 | 0.6h | ELEVATED |
| Inflation | 0.74 | 1.2h | ELEVATED |
| Interest Rates | 0.66 | 0.9h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Cloud & Data Centers | 0.57 | 1.5h | SUBCRITICAL |
| M&A | 0.56 | 1.2h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Crypto & Digital Assets | 0.48 | 1.1h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Semiconductors | 0.46 | 0.8h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 749 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 1,652 |
| Projected close of day | 1,951 |
| Daily average | 1,347 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 1.27× |
| Total in corpus | 153,516 |
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.