real time stock market sentiment dashboard
A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login, no sign-up.
Regime read: LONG · expected +2.83% ± 5.24% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.54 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Bull (83.1% posterior, +43.4%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.1348%/day and dominates. Net +0.1342%/day.
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLTR | +13.2 | Information Technology | 77.5 | 2.41 | 72% | Dow Fixture Microsoft Breaks Out Along With These Stocks, But Datadog Triggers Sell SignalsprofitableExtended FWD P/EExpensive PEGY (>2) |
| CAVA | +11.2 | Consumer Discretionary | 97.2 | — | 51% | How Cava outperforms in fast casual despite frugal marketing budgetExtended FWD P/EMean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
| IREN | +9.9 | Financials | -47.4 | 3.11 | 46% | IREN’s $100 Bull Case Hinges on a 5-10x AI Cloud AdvantageprofitableFwd P/E < 15Expensive PEGY (>2)Mean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
| WDAY | +8.7 | Information Technology | 16.2 | 0.72 | 68% | Workday skyrockets 25% before trading halted on report of Silver Lake takeoverprofitablePEGY < 0.75Price > Analyst Target |
| ARM | +7.6 | Information Technology | 91.2 | 2.20 | 51% | Why Arm Holdings Stock Popped TodayprofitableExtended FWD P/EExpensive PEGY (>2) |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
NO TRADE: every ranked play has a negative expected net gain after costs in the current regime. The table is a relative ordering, not a buy list.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WDAY | LONG | 43.4% | -0.22 | -0.47 | -0.92 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 8.7); Accelerating velocity +8.6 (2 mentions/12h); ⚠ Price > Analyst Target; Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 2 | ONDS | LONG | 44.1% | -0.23 | -0.43 | -0.39 | High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum; ⚠ Earnings in 0d — event risk inside hold window |
| 3 | LUNR | LONG | 44.1% | -0.23 | -0.43 | -0.39 | Despair reversion: sentiment -4 but undervalued; ⚠ Earnings in 0d — event risk inside hold window |
| 4 | SPCX | LONG | 41.7% | -0.21 | -0.43 | -0.80 | Accelerating velocity +5.4 (2 mentions/12h) |
| 5 | IREN | LONG | 43.4% | -0.22 | -0.47 | -0.92 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 9.9); Accelerating velocity +12.6 (3 mentions/12h); ⚠ Expensive PEGY (>2); Mean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
| 6 | PLTR | LONG | 42.6% | -0.21 | -0.53 | -1.39 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 13.3); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Expensive PEGY (>2); Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 7 | CAVA | LONG | 42.1% | -0.21 | -0.47 | -1.08 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 9.2); Accelerating velocity +9.0 (4 mentions/12h); CIO meta-model current selection; ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; UNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
| 8 | ARM | LONG | 42.1% | -0.21 | -0.47 | -1.08 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 7.7); Accelerating velocity +6.0 (2 mentions/12h); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Expensive PEGY (>2); Quality: F-score 7/9 |
Engine hit rate 42.6% over 256 scored calls (lower bound 36.7%), average net alpha -0.242%. Serving: rules.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
Cerebras Systems (CBRS) experienced a significant price plunge following earnings, signaling a market rejection of its valuation and a fundamental disconnect between AI hype and actual execution.
2026-08-13 12:40A tempered outlook due to underwhelming running-shoe sales in a high-multiple growth stock is a fundamental valuation reset catalyst rather than a temporary dip.
2026-08-13 00:13Safety concerns regarding Vykat in a biotech pipeline are fundamentally bearish catalysts as they increase regulatory risk and probability of clinical failure, outweighing speculative 'blood in the streets' buying opportunities.
2026-08-12 13:10A massive 17% jump following a blowout earnings beat suggests strong momentum and pricing power, but conviction is capped by the potential for 'sell the news' profit-taking and macro travel spending risks.
2026-08-10 10:50Nielsen's $2.15 billion takeover of DoubleVerify is a major bullish catalyst, but the stock will likely trade at a discount to the offer price due to deal risk and the correctness of the pre-announcement run-up.
2026-08-08 12:21The announcement of a cash buyout to take the company private is a primary catalyst for price convergence toward the offer price, though conviction is tempered by the M&A arbitrage spread and potential 'sell the news' dynamics.
2026-08-08 11:40Datadog's 19% plunge as a leader of the software sector slide suggests systemic risk and valuation reset rather than a temporary dip, signaling a high probability of continued downward pressure.
2026-08-08 05:11A price collapse following an earnings beat is a classic institutional distribution signal, indicating that the 'beat' was likely priced in or based on a lowered bar, suggesting a further downward trajectory.
2026-08-07 22:02The withdrawal of guidance and dividend slash signals a fundamental breakdown in cash flow visibility and management credibility, outweighing any 'blood in the streets' recovery narrative.
2026-08-07 14:53A 28% plunge following earnings is a violent confirmation of structural failure and fundamental devaluation rather than a temporary overreaction.
2026-08-06 21:46Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
| Ticker | Velocity | Vol | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAVA | +13.0 | 5 | How Cava outperforms in fast casual despite frugal marketing budget |
| IREN | +12.6 | 3 | IREN’s $100 Bull Case Hinges on a 5-10x AI Cloud Advantage |
| WDAY | +8.6 | 2 | Workday skyrockets 25% before trading halted on report of Silver Lake takeover |
| ARM | +6.0 | 2 | Why Arm Holdings Stock Popped Today |
| SPCX | +5.4 | 2 | Fund Update: New $120.9M $SPCX stock position opened |
Change in scored coverage over the last 12 hours versus the prior 12.
| ONON | -9.6 | Premium Sneaker Brand On’s Stock Tumbles Amid Push to Keep ‘Full Price’ Power |
| LUNR | -4.2 | Intuitive Machines Quietly Jumped 20% Last Week. Is the Market Finally Waking Up to This Space Stock? |
| DDOG | -4.0 | Dow Fixture Microsoft Breaks Out Along With These Stocks, But Datadog Triggers Sell Signals |
| APP | -3.3 | AppLovin Stock Is Today’s Worst Performer In the S&P 500. This Is Why. |
| NOMD | -3.2 | Nomad Foods slashes EPS forecast on debt restructuring |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financials | +94 | +567 | +2,761 | |
| Information Technology | +152 | +541 | +796 | |
| Energybearish reversal | -15 | +508 | +2,258 | |
| Materialsbearish reversal | -17 | +44 | +58 | |
| Health Care | -25 | -135 | -245 | |
| Communication Services | -21 | -143 | -392 | |
| Utilities | -15 | -191 | -865 | |
| Industrials | -10 | -237 | -604 | |
| Consumer Staples | -49 | -250 | -718 | |
| Real Estate | -77 | -330 | -1,676 | |
| Consumer Discretionary | -17 | -376 | -1,375 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Artificial Intelligence | +211.2 | +435 | |
| Inflation | +73.8 | +35 | |
| Prediction Markets | +24.2 | +30 | |
| Global Markets | +20.0 | +20 | |
| Fiscal Policy | -10.8 | -16 | |
| Housing Market | -15.3 | -22 | |
| Oil Prices | -29.5 | +27 | |
| Interest Rates | -38.5 | -43 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Markov Regime Engine | UP | 50% |
| Macro Factor Gate | UP | 55% |
Consensus: BULLISH
Weekly index projection: +0.70% (80% band -1.93% to +1.89%).
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 11.4% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 48% |
| Variance risk premium | +2.4 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.57% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.50% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.60% |
Premium in normal range — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.06 in-sample / 0.11 OOS, worst 0.06) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation | 0.80 | 1.2h | ELEVATED |
| Oil & Gas | 0.78 | 1.5h | ELEVATED |
| Artificial Intelligence | 0.78 | 0.7h | ELEVATED |
| Interest Rates | 0.70 | 1.0h | ELEVATED |
| Cloud & Data Centers | 0.64 | 1.8h | SUBCRITICAL |
| M&A | 0.64 | 1.7h | SUBCRITICAL |
| FinTech | 0.60 | 1.5h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Stock Market | 0.53 | 1.3h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 1,439 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 1,652 |
| Projected close of day | 1,723 |
| Daily average | 1,341 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 1.22× |
| Total in corpus | 154,206 |
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.