real time stock market sentiment dashboard
A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login, no sign-up.
Regime read: LONG · expected +2.83% ± 5.24% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.54 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Bull (82.6% posterior, +43.4%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.1342%/day and dominates. Net +0.1335%/day.
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAVA | +21.9 | Consumer Discretionary | 97.6 | — | 52% | Diner Traffic, Same-Restaurant Sales Growth Lift CavaprofitableExtended FWD P/EMean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
| PLTR | +12.2 | Information Technology | 77.4 | 2.41 | 72% | Prediction: Palantir Stock Will Trade At $300 in 2027. Here's the MathprofitableExtended FWD P/EExpensive PEGY (>2) |
| RDDT | +8.9 | Communication Services | 16.4 | 1.03 | 24% | Redditprofitable |
| COIN | +8.7 | Financials | 50.9 | — | 6% | Coinbase establishes its tokenization hub in Abu Dhabi, with Financial Services Permission from the Financial Services Regulatory Authority (FSRA)Extended FWD P/EMean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
| HOOD | +7.8 | Financials | 31.0 | 2.15 | 40% | F it we BALL! Robinhood cheap $150 calls aug21s..profitableExtended FWD P/EExpensive PEGY (>2) |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
NO TRADE: every ranked play has a negative expected net gain after costs in the current regime. The table is a relative ordering, not a buy list.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WDAY | LONG | 43.6% | -0.23 | -0.44 | -0.69 | Accelerating velocity +11.6 (3 mentions/12h); Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 2 | RDDT | LONG | 42.1% | -0.21 | -0.46 | -1.08 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 9.0); Accelerating velocity +12.2 (4 mentions/12h); Quality: F-score 7/9 |
| 3 | SOUN | LONG | 44.1% | -0.25 | -0.43 | -0.33 | Despair reversion: sentiment -4 but undervalued |
| 4 | ONDS | LONG | 44.1% | -0.25 | -0.43 | -0.33 | High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum; ⚠ Earnings in 0d — event risk inside hold window |
| 5 | JOBY | LONG | 41.7% | -0.21 | -0.42 | -0.80 | Accelerating velocity +8.2 (2 mentions/12h) |
| 6 | WEN | LONG | 41.7% | -0.21 | -0.42 | -0.80 | Accelerating velocity +7.4 (2 mentions/12h) |
| 7 | PLTR | LONG | 42.6% | -0.21 | -0.51 | -1.40 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 12.3); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Expensive PEGY (>2); Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 8 | CAVA | LONG | 42.1% | -0.21 | -0.46 | -1.08 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 22.1); Accelerating velocity +6.8 (4 mentions/12h); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Mean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
Engine hit rate 43.0% over 258 scored calls (lower bound 37.1%), average net alpha -0.212%. Serving: rules.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
Cerebras Systems (CBRS) experienced a significant price plunge following earnings, signaling a market rejection of its valuation and a fundamental disconnect between AI hype and actual execution.
2026-08-13 12:40A tempered outlook due to underwhelming running-shoe sales in a high-multiple growth stock is a fundamental valuation reset catalyst rather than a temporary dip.
2026-08-13 00:13Safety concerns regarding Vykat in a biotech pipeline are fundamentally bearish catalysts as they increase regulatory risk and probability of clinical failure, outweighing speculative 'blood in the streets' buying opportunities.
2026-08-12 13:10A massive 17% jump following a blowout earnings beat suggests strong momentum and pricing power, but conviction is capped by the potential for 'sell the news' profit-taking and macro travel spending risks.
2026-08-10 10:50Nielsen's $2.15 billion takeover of DoubleVerify is a major bullish catalyst, but the stock will likely trade at a discount to the offer price due to deal risk and the correctness of the pre-announcement run-up.
2026-08-08 12:21The announcement of a cash buyout to take the company private is a primary catalyst for price convergence toward the offer price, though conviction is tempered by the M&A arbitrage spread and potential 'sell the news' dynamics.
2026-08-08 11:40Datadog's 19% plunge as a leader of the software sector slide suggests systemic risk and valuation reset rather than a temporary dip, signaling a high probability of continued downward pressure.
2026-08-08 05:11A price collapse following an earnings beat is a classic institutional distribution signal, indicating that the 'beat' was likely priced in or based on a lowered bar, suggesting a further downward trajectory.
2026-08-07 22:02The withdrawal of guidance and dividend slash signals a fundamental breakdown in cash flow visibility and management credibility, outweighing any 'blood in the streets' recovery narrative.
2026-08-07 14:53A 28% plunge following earnings is a violent confirmation of structural failure and fundamental devaluation rather than a temporary overreaction.
2026-08-06 21:46Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
| Ticker | Velocity | Vol | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| RDDT | +12.2 | 4 | |
| WDAY | +11.6 | 3 | Workday to be acquired ? |
| JOBY | +8.2 | 2 | Joby Aviation Makes Push Into Defense With $500 Million Acquisition. What It Means for JOBY Stock. |
| WEN | +7.4 | 2 | Nelson Peltz is reportedly planning an offer for Wendy’s |
| CAVA | +6.8 | 4 | Diner Traffic, Same-Restaurant Sales Growth Lift Cava |
Change in scored coverage over the last 12 hours versus the prior 12.
| ONON | -6.8 | Premium Sneaker Brand On’s Stock Tumbles Amid Push to Keep ‘Full Price’ Power |
| APP | -5.4 | APP Stock Alert: AppLovin's Latest Downgrade Sends Clear Signal on Growth Trajectory |
| LUNR | -3.0 | Intuitive Machines Quietly Jumped 20% Last Week. Is the Market Finally Waking Up to This Space Stock? |
| XPEV | -3.0 | After Plunging 40% This Year, XPeng Bets on Physical AI to Help Turn the Tide |
| DDOG | -2.8 | Dow Fixture Microsoft Breaks Out Along With These Stocks, But Datadog Triggers Sell Signals |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financials | +110 | +596 | +2,757 | |
| Information Technology | +168 | +568 | +838 | |
| Energybearish reversal | -92 | +419 | +2,165 | |
| Materialsbearish reversal | -22 | +25 | +55 | |
| Communication Services | -16 | -129 | -384 | |
| Health Care | -32 | -150 | -239 | |
| Utilities | -19 | -189 | -861 | |
| Industrials | -10 | -229 | -585 | |
| Consumer Staples | -54 | -258 | -721 | |
| Real Estate | -54 | -320 | -1,668 | |
| Consumer Discretionarybullish reversal | +17 | -333 | -1,358 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Artificial Intelligence | +162.2 | +397 | |
| Inflation | +85.8 | +50 | |
| Stock Market | +47.5 | +55 | |
| Monetary Policy | +25.5 | +15 | |
| Treasury Market | -9.0 | -9 | |
| Commodities | -10.3 | -4 | |
| Geopolitics | -14.0 | -19 | |
| Interest Rates | -29.5 | -36 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Markov Regime Engine | UP | 50% |
| Macro Factor Gate | UP | 55% |
Consensus: BULLISH
Weekly index projection: +0.67% (80% band -1.90% to +1.68%).
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 11.4% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 48% |
| Variance risk premium | +2.4 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.57% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.50% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.60% |
Premium in normal range — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.06 in-sample / 0.11 OOS, worst 0.06) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation | 0.80 | 1.1h | ELEVATED |
| Artificial Intelligence | 0.77 | 0.7h | ELEVATED |
| Oil & Gas | 0.77 | 1.3h | ELEVATED |
| Interest Rates | 0.68 | 0.9h | SUBCRITICAL |
| M&A | 0.66 | 1.8h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Cloud & Data Centers | 0.61 | 1.6h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Stock Market | 0.59 | 1.4h | SUBCRITICAL |
| FinTech | 0.56 | 1.3h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 157 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 1,702 |
| Projected close of day | 1,696 |
| Daily average | 1,345 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 1.24× |
| Total in corpus | 154,626 |
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.