real time stock market sentiment dashboard
A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login, no sign-up.
Regime read: LONG · expected +2.83% ± 5.24% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.54 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Bull (82.6% posterior, +43.4%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.1342%/day and dominates. Net +0.1335%/day.
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAVA | +22.4 | Consumer Discretionary | 97.6 | — | 52% | Cava's Stock Surges After Q2 Results. Is Now the Time to Buy?profitableExtended FWD P/EMean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
| HOOD | +9.4 | Financials | 31.0 | 2.15 | 40% | Robinhood’s Crypto Slump Got the Headlines. Its 10x Business Got Ignored.profitableExtended FWD P/EExpensive PEGY (>2) |
| NBIS | +8.6 | Communication Services | -76.9 | — | 81% | Stock Market Today, Aug. 12: Nebius Group Surges on Massive Revenue GrowthFwd P/E < 15UNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
| PLTR | +7.9 | Information Technology | 77.4 | 2.41 | 72% | Michael Burry Is Short Nebius and Palantir. Both Are Now Soaring and His Short Thesis Looks Broken.profitableExtended FWD P/EExpensive PEGY (>2) |
| RDDT | +7.6 | Communication Services | 16.4 | 1.03 | 24% | Redditprofitable |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
NO TRADE: every ranked play has a negative expected net gain after costs in the current regime. The table is a relative ordering, not a buy list.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FSLR | LONG | 44.1% | -0.25 | -0.43 | -0.33 | High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum; Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 2 | RDDT | LONG | 42.1% | -0.21 | -0.46 | -1.08 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 7.7); Accelerating velocity +12.0 (4 mentions/12h); CIO meta-model current selection; Quality: F-score 7/9 |
| 3 | WU | LONG | 44.1% | -0.25 | -0.43 | -0.33 | Despair reversion: sentiment -4 but undervalued |
| 4 | WEN | LONG | 41.7% | -0.21 | -0.42 | -0.80 | Accelerating velocity +13.8 (4 mentions/12h) |
| 5 | UBER | LONG | 41.7% | -0.21 | -0.42 | -0.80 | Accelerating velocity +6.2 (2 mentions/12h) |
| 6 | JOBY | LONG | 41.7% | -0.21 | -0.42 | -0.80 | Accelerating velocity +5.2 (3 mentions/12h) |
| 7 | PLTR | LONG | 42.6% | -0.21 | -0.51 | -1.40 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 8.0); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Expensive PEGY (>2); Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 8 | CAVA | LONG | 42.6% | -0.21 | -0.51 | -1.40 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 22.6); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Mean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
Engine hit rate 42.9% over 259 scored calls (lower bound 37.0%), average net alpha -0.234%. Serving: rules.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
Cerebras Systems (CBRS) experienced a significant price plunge following earnings, signaling a market rejection of its valuation and a fundamental disconnect between AI hype and actual execution.
2026-08-13 12:40A tempered outlook due to underwhelming running-shoe sales in a high-multiple growth stock is a fundamental valuation reset catalyst rather than a temporary dip.
2026-08-13 00:13Safety concerns regarding Vykat in a biotech pipeline are fundamentally bearish catalysts as they increase regulatory risk and probability of clinical failure, outweighing speculative 'blood in the streets' buying opportunities.
2026-08-12 13:10A massive 17% jump following a blowout earnings beat suggests strong momentum and pricing power, but conviction is capped by the potential for 'sell the news' profit-taking and macro travel spending risks.
2026-08-10 10:50Nielsen's $2.15 billion takeover of DoubleVerify is a major bullish catalyst, but the stock will likely trade at a discount to the offer price due to deal risk and the correctness of the pre-announcement run-up.
2026-08-08 12:21The announcement of a cash buyout to take the company private is a primary catalyst for price convergence toward the offer price, though conviction is tempered by the M&A arbitrage spread and potential 'sell the news' dynamics.
2026-08-08 11:40Datadog's 19% plunge as a leader of the software sector slide suggests systemic risk and valuation reset rather than a temporary dip, signaling a high probability of continued downward pressure.
2026-08-08 05:11A price collapse following an earnings beat is a classic institutional distribution signal, indicating that the 'beat' was likely priced in or based on a lowered bar, suggesting a further downward trajectory.
2026-08-07 22:02The withdrawal of guidance and dividend slash signals a fundamental breakdown in cash flow visibility and management credibility, outweighing any 'blood in the streets' recovery narrative.
2026-08-07 14:53A 28% plunge following earnings is a violent confirmation of structural failure and fundamental devaluation rather than a temporary overreaction.
2026-08-06 21:46Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
| Ticker | Velocity | Vol | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| WEN | +13.8 | 4 | Stock Market Today, Aug. 12: Wendy's Surges 15% on Take-Private Bid Report |
| RDDT | +12.0 | 4 | |
| UBER | +6.2 | 2 | Uber partners with China's Pony.ai for 2,000 robotaxis in Europe |
| COIN | +5.6 | 3 | Coinbase establishes its tokenization hub in Abu Dhabi, with Financial Services Permission from the Financial Services Regulatory Authority (FSRA) |
| JOBY | +5.2 | 3 | Why Did Joby’s (JOBY) $500M Defense Bet Spook Investors? |
Change in scored coverage over the last 12 hours versus the prior 12.
| ONON | -5.8 | Premium Sneaker Brand On’s Stock Tumbles Amid Push to Keep ‘Full Price’ Power |
| APP | -4.6 | APP Stock Alert: AppLovin's Latest Downgrade Sends Clear Signal on Growth Trajectory |
| WU | -3.8 | Western Union's LatAm strategy faces fintech pressure |
| ACN | -3.3 | Accenture Stock Trades At A Discount While The Company Buys Its Growth |
| CBRS | -3.3 | AI Chipmaker Cerebras Says Core Revenue Jumped 103% In Q2 |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financials | +132 | +635 | +2,736 | |
| Information Technology | +163 | +586 | +859 | |
| Energybearish reversal | -102 | +385 | +2,121 | |
| Materialsbearish reversal | -28 | -0 | +44 | |
| Communication Services | -8 | -123 | -378 | |
| Health Care | -40 | -167 | -246 | |
| Utilities | -29 | -189 | -846 | |
| Industrials | -17 | -224 | -577 | |
| Consumer Staples | -56 | -274 | -730 | |
| Real Estate | -43 | -304 | -1,660 | |
| Consumer Discretionarybullish reversal | +29 | -322 | -1,324 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Artificial Intelligence | +139.3 | +381 | |
| Inflation | +93.3 | +60 | |
| Stock Market | +50.7 | +58 | |
| Cloud Computing | +33.5 | +62 | |
| Financial Regulation | -9.3 | -8 | |
| Data Centers | -9.3 | +6 | |
| Interest Rates | -10.2 | -13 | |
| Tariffs | -20.3 | -25 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Markov Regime Engine | UP | 50% |
| Macro Factor Gate | UP | 55% |
Consensus: BULLISH
Weekly index projection: +0.67% (80% band -1.88% to +1.64%).
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 11.4% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 48% |
| Variance risk premium | +2.4 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.57% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.51% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.60% |
Premium in normal range — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.06 in-sample / 0.11 OOS, worst 0.06) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation | 0.80 | 1.2h | ELEVATED |
| Artificial Intelligence | 0.77 | 0.7h | ELEVATED |
| Oil & Gas | 0.77 | 1.5h | ELEVATED |
| Interest Rates | 0.65 | 0.8h | SUBCRITICAL |
| M&A | 0.65 | 1.8h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Cloud & Data Centers | 0.60 | 1.5h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Stock Market | 0.57 | 1.4h | SUBCRITICAL |
| FinTech | 0.56 | 1.2h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 469 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 1,702 |
| Projected close of day | 1,871 |
| Daily average | 1,347 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 1.17× |
| Total in corpus | 154,938 |
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.