real time stock market sentiment dashboard
A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login, no sign-up.
Regime read: LONG · expected +2.87% ± 5.20% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.55 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Bull (87.2% posterior, +43.3%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.1405%/day and dominates. Net +0.1401%/day.
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAVA | +18.4 | Consumer Discretionary | 100.8 | — | 56% | Cava's Stock Surges After Q2 Results. Is Now the Time to Buy?profitableExtended FWD P/E |
| RDDT | +15.0 | Communication Services | 18.8 | 1.03 | 38% | Reddit 420 gainprofitable |
| HOOD | +10.5 | Financials | 30.3 | 2.15 | 37% | The Zacks Analyst Blog Highlights Coinbase Global, Robinhood Markets and Interactive BrokersprofitableExtended FWD P/EExpensive PEGY (>2) |
| NBIS | +9.5 | Communication Services | -80.7 | — | 86% | Why Nebius Stock Skyrocketed TodayFwd P/E < 15Price > Analyst TargetUNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
| COIN | +7.9 | Financials | 49.6 | — | 4% | The Zacks Analyst Blog Highlights Coinbase Global, Robinhood Markets and Interactive BrokersExtended FWD P/EMean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
NO TRADE: every ranked play has a negative expected net gain after costs in the current regime. The table is a relative ordering, not a buy list.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FSLR | LONG | 44.1% | -0.25 | -0.43 | -0.33 | High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum; Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 2 | RDDT | LONG | 42.1% | -0.21 | -0.46 | -1.08 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 14.4); Accelerating velocity +5.4 (3 mentions/12h); CIO meta-model current selection; Quality: F-score 7/9 |
| 3 | NU | LONG | 43.6% | -0.23 | -0.44 | -0.69 | Accelerating velocity +4.0 (2 mentions/12h) |
| 4 | JOBY | LONG | 44.1% | -0.25 | -0.43 | -0.33 | Despair reversion: sentiment -6 but undervalued |
| 5 | WU | LONG | 44.1% | -0.25 | -0.43 | -0.33 | Despair reversion: sentiment -4 but undervalued |
| 6 | WEN | LONG | 41.7% | -0.21 | -0.42 | -0.80 | Accelerating velocity +13.0 (4 mentions/12h) |
| 7 | BE | LONG | 41.7% | -0.21 | -0.42 | -0.80 | Accelerating velocity +4.8 (2 mentions/12h) |
| 8 | CAVA | LONG | 42.6% | -0.21 | -0.51 | -1.40 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 18.6); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E |
Engine hit rate 43.2% over 264 scored calls (lower bound 37.3%), average net alpha -0.219%. Serving: rules.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
Cerebras Systems (CBRS) experienced a significant price plunge following earnings, signaling a market rejection of its valuation and a fundamental disconnect between AI hype and actual execution.
2026-08-13 12:40A tempered outlook due to underwhelming running-shoe sales in a high-multiple growth stock is a fundamental valuation reset catalyst rather than a temporary dip.
2026-08-13 00:13Safety concerns regarding Vykat in a biotech pipeline are fundamentally bearish catalysts as they increase regulatory risk and probability of clinical failure, outweighing speculative 'blood in the streets' buying opportunities.
2026-08-12 13:10A massive 17% jump following a blowout earnings beat suggests strong momentum and pricing power, but conviction is capped by the potential for 'sell the news' profit-taking and macro travel spending risks.
2026-08-10 10:50Nielsen's $2.15 billion takeover of DoubleVerify is a major bullish catalyst, but the stock will likely trade at a discount to the offer price due to deal risk and the correctness of the pre-announcement run-up.
2026-08-08 12:21The announcement of a cash buyout to take the company private is a primary catalyst for price convergence toward the offer price, though conviction is tempered by the M&A arbitrage spread and potential 'sell the news' dynamics.
2026-08-08 11:40Datadog's 19% plunge as a leader of the software sector slide suggests systemic risk and valuation reset rather than a temporary dip, signaling a high probability of continued downward pressure.
2026-08-08 05:11A price collapse following an earnings beat is a classic institutional distribution signal, indicating that the 'beat' was likely priced in or based on a lowered bar, suggesting a further downward trajectory.
2026-08-07 22:02The withdrawal of guidance and dividend slash signals a fundamental breakdown in cash flow visibility and management credibility, outweighing any 'blood in the streets' recovery narrative.
2026-08-07 14:53A 28% plunge following earnings is a violent confirmation of structural failure and fundamental devaluation rather than a temporary overreaction.
2026-08-06 21:46Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
| Ticker | Velocity | Vol | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| WEN | +13.0 | 4 | Why Wendy's Stock Blasted Almost 15% Higher Today |
| NBIS | +8.8 | 5 | Why Nebius Stock Skyrocketed Today |
| RDDT | +6.4 | 4 | Reddit 420 gain |
| BE | +4.8 | 2 | Why is Bloom Energy stock climbing today? |
| HOOD | +4.6 | 4 | The Zacks Analyst Blog Highlights Coinbase Global, Robinhood Markets and Interactive Brokers |
Change in scored coverage over the last 12 hours versus the prior 12.
| APP | -3.8 | APP Stock Alert: AppLovin's Latest Downgrade Sends Clear Signal on Growth Trajectory |
| WU | -3.1 | Western Union's LatAm strategy faces fintech pressure |
| VRSK | -3.0 | Verisk (VRSK) Tried to Walk Away From a $2.35 Billion Deal. A Judge Sent It Back |
| ONON | -3.0 | ONON Has Bounced From This Price Before. Now What? |
| ACN | -2.7 | Accenture Stock Trades At A Discount While The Company Buys Its Growth |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financials | +121 | +656 | +2,683 | |
| Information Technology | +145 | +606 | +836 | |
| Energybearish reversal | -102 | +351 | +2,084 | |
| Materialsbearish reversal | -30 | -10 | +64 | |
| Communication Services | -1 | -118 | -359 | |
| Health Care | -36 | -170 | -233 | |
| Utilities | -39 | -201 | -836 | |
| Industrials | -11 | -209 | -556 | |
| Consumer Staples | -54 | -271 | -702 | |
| Consumer Discretionarybullish reversal | +55 | -293 | -1,310 | |
| Real Estate | -52 | -340 | -1,675 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation | +101.7 | +72 | |
| Artificial Intelligence | +92.5 | +346 | |
| Stock Market | +54.0 | +62 | |
| Oil Prices | +45.0 | +92 | |
| Financial Regulation | -9.3 | -8 | |
| Tariffs | -9.7 | -15 | |
| AI Bubble | -10.2 | -12 | |
| Interest Rates | -14.0 | -19 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Markov Regime Engine | UP | 50% |
| Macro Factor Gate | UP | 55% |
Consensus: BULLISH
Weekly index projection: +0.66% (80% band -1.92% to +1.59%).
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 11.4% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 48% |
| Variance risk premium | +2.3 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.57% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.51% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.60% |
Premium in normal range — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.06 in-sample / 0.11 OOS, worst 0.06) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation | 0.82 | 1.2h | ELEVATED |
| Artificial Intelligence | 0.78 | 0.7h | ELEVATED |
| Oil & Gas | 0.77 | 1.5h | ELEVATED |
| M&A | 0.62 | 1.7h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Interest Rates | 0.62 | 0.7h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Cloud & Data Centers | 0.61 | 1.5h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Stock Market | 0.59 | 1.5h | SUBCRITICAL |
| FinTech | 0.57 | 1.2h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 870 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 1,702 |
| Projected close of day | 1,646 |
| Daily average | 1,351 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 1.11× |
| Total in corpus | 155,339 |
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.