real time stock market sentiment dashboard
A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login, no sign-up.
Regime read: LONG · expected +2.83% ± 5.22% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.54 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Bull (84.2% posterior, +43.1%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.1356%/day and dominates. Net +0.1350%/day.
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RDDT | +30.4 | Communication Services | 18.7 | 1.03 | 37% | Reddit stock soars after S&P 500 inclusion announcementprofitable |
| CAVA | +17.1 | Consumer Discretionary | 100.6 | — | 56% | Cava's Stock Surges After Q2 Results. Is Now the Time to Buy?profitableExtended FWD P/E |
| NBIS | +12.2 | Communication Services | -88.9 | — | 86% | Bank of America resets Nebius stock price target after 454% surgeFwd P/E < 15Price > Analyst TargetUNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
| HOOD | +9.7 | Financials | 30.3 | 2.15 | 37% | The Zacks Analyst Blog Highlights Coinbase Global, Robinhood Markets and Interactive BrokersprofitableExtended FWD P/EExpensive PEGY (>2) |
| WDAY | +9.0 | Information Technology | 15.7 | 0.72 | 64% | Workday, Silver Lake in discussions over potential $43B dealprofitablePEGY < 0.75Price > Analyst Target |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
NO TRADE: every ranked play has a negative expected net gain after costs in the current regime. The table is a relative ordering, not a buy list.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RDDT | LONG | 42.1% | -0.21 | -0.46 | -1.08 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 30.5); Accelerating velocity +25.4 (9 mentions/12h); CIO meta-model current selection; Quality: F-score 7/9 |
| 2 | GEV | LONG | 41.7% | -0.21 | -0.42 | -0.80 | Accelerating velocity +6.4 (2 mentions/12h); Quality: F-score 7/9 |
| 3 | WEN | LONG | 41.7% | -0.21 | -0.42 | -0.80 | Accelerating velocity +13.0 (4 mentions/12h) |
| 4 | OCUL | LONG | 41.7% | -0.21 | -0.42 | -0.80 | Accelerating velocity +5.0 (2 mentions/12h) |
| 5 | WDAY | LONG | 42.6% | -0.21 | -0.51 | -1.40 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 9.0); ⚠ Price > Analyst Target; Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 6 | CAVA | LONG | 42.6% | -0.21 | -0.51 | -1.40 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 17.2); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E |
| 7 | NBIS | LONG | 42.1% | -0.21 | -0.46 | -1.08 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 12.3); Accelerating velocity +15.8 (7 mentions/12h); ⚠ Price > Analyst Target; UNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
| 8 | HOOD | LONG | 42.6% | -0.21 | -0.51 | -1.40 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 9.7); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Expensive PEGY (>2) |
Engine hit rate 43.2% over 264 scored calls (lower bound 37.3%), average net alpha -0.219%. Serving: rules.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
Cerebras Systems (CBRS) experienced a significant price plunge following earnings, signaling a market rejection of its valuation and a fundamental disconnect between AI hype and actual execution.
2026-08-13 12:40A tempered outlook due to underwhelming running-shoe sales in a high-multiple growth stock is a fundamental valuation reset catalyst rather than a temporary dip.
2026-08-13 00:13Safety concerns regarding Vykat in a biotech pipeline are fundamentally bearish catalysts as they increase regulatory risk and probability of clinical failure, outweighing speculative 'blood in the streets' buying opportunities.
2026-08-12 13:10A massive 17% jump following a blowout earnings beat suggests strong momentum and pricing power, but conviction is capped by the potential for 'sell the news' profit-taking and macro travel spending risks.
2026-08-10 10:50Nielsen's $2.15 billion takeover of DoubleVerify is a major bullish catalyst, but the stock will likely trade at a discount to the offer price due to deal risk and the correctness of the pre-announcement run-up.
2026-08-08 12:21The announcement of a cash buyout to take the company private is a primary catalyst for price convergence toward the offer price, though conviction is tempered by the M&A arbitrage spread and potential 'sell the news' dynamics.
2026-08-08 11:40Datadog's 19% plunge as a leader of the software sector slide suggests systemic risk and valuation reset rather than a temporary dip, signaling a high probability of continued downward pressure.
2026-08-08 05:11A price collapse following an earnings beat is a classic institutional distribution signal, indicating that the 'beat' was likely priced in or based on a lowered bar, suggesting a further downward trajectory.
2026-08-07 22:02The withdrawal of guidance and dividend slash signals a fundamental breakdown in cash flow visibility and management credibility, outweighing any 'blood in the streets' recovery narrative.
2026-08-07 14:53A 28% plunge following earnings is a violent confirmation of structural failure and fundamental devaluation rather than a temporary overreaction.
2026-08-06 21:46Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
| Ticker | Velocity | Vol | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| RDDT | +25.4 | 9 | Reddit stock soars after S&P 500 inclusion announcement |
| NBIS | +15.8 | 7 | Bank of America resets Nebius stock price target after 454% surge |
| WEN | +13.0 | 4 | Why Wendy's Stock Blasted Almost 15% Higher Today |
| GEV | +6.4 | 2 | Should Investors Take Profits in GE Vernova After Its Big Run? |
| OCUL | +5.0 | 2 | Stifel reiterates Buy rating on Oculis stock, $40 target |
Change in scored coverage over the last 12 hours versus the prior 12.
| ACN | -5.3 | Why Accenture (ACN) Lost Its Place in This Portfolio |
| CBRS | -3.5 | Target Stock Flies To New Highs As Earnings Approach, But Walmart Stuck In Neutral |
| APP | -3.5 | APP Stock Alert: AppLovin's Latest Downgrade Sends Clear Signal on Growth Trajectory |
| WU | -2.9 | Western Union's LatAm strategy faces fintech pressure |
| OSCR | -2.8 | Why Did Oscar Health (OSCR) Fall After Record Profit and a Guidance Hike? |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financials | +135 | +675 | +2,672 | |
| Information Technology | +141 | +598 | +816 | |
| Energybearish reversal | -74 | +356 | +2,072 | |
| Materialsbearish reversal | -30 | -10 | +74 | |
| Communication Services | -2 | -124 | -344 | |
| Health Care | -31 | -163 | -230 | |
| Industrials | -4 | -190 | -532 | |
| Utilities | -48 | -218 | -828 | |
| Consumer Staples | -57 | -274 | -698 | |
| Consumer Discretionarybullish reversal | +32 | -286 | -1,316 | |
| Real Estate | -61 | -364 | -1,686 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation | +89.5 | +62 | |
| Artificial Intelligence | +82.0 | +338 | |
| Stock Market | +46.2 | +56 | |
| AI Infrastructure | +26.2 | +45 | |
| Gold Prices | -9.2 | +3 | |
| AI Bubble | -10.2 | -12 | |
| Tariffs | -11.2 | -16 | |
| Cryptocurrency | -11.5 | +2 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Markov Regime Engine | UP | 50% |
| Macro Factor Gate | UP | 55% |
Consensus: BULLISH
Weekly index projection: +0.64% (80% band -1.84% to +1.54%).
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 12.0% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 52% |
| Variance risk premium | +2.2 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.56% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.49% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.57% |
Premium in normal range — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.06 in-sample / 0.13 OOS, worst 0.06) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation | 0.82 | 1.2h | ELEVATED |
| Artificial Intelligence | 0.77 | 0.7h | ELEVATED |
| Oil & Gas | 0.77 | 1.4h | ELEVATED |
| M&A | 0.62 | 1.8h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Interest Rates | 0.59 | 0.7h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Cloud & Data Centers | 0.59 | 1.5h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Stock Market | 0.58 | 1.5h | SUBCRITICAL |
| FinTech | 0.56 | 1.2h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 1,078 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 1,702 |
| Projected close of day | 1,647 |
| Daily average | 1,353 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 1.11× |
| Total in corpus | 155,547 |
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.