real time stock market sentiment dashboard
A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login, no sign-up.
Regime read: LONG · expected +2.84% ± 5.22% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.54 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Bull (84.6% posterior, +43.1%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.1362%/day and dominates. Net +0.1356%/day.
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RDDT | +34.3 | Communication Services | 18.4 | 1.03 | 36% | RDDT Gains so far - Inclusion into SP500profitable |
| CAVA | +10.6 | Consumer Discretionary | 101.0 | — | 57% | Cava's Stock Surges After Q2 Results. Is Now the Time to Buy?profitableExtended FWD P/E |
| WDAY | +9.7 | Information Technology | 15.7 | 0.72 | 64% | Workday buyout may restore confidence in battered software valuations, analysts sayprofitablePEGY < 0.75Price > Analyst Target |
| NBIS | +7.3 | Communication Services | -91.1 | — | 89% | 70k in NBIS LEAPS (SOLD)Fwd P/E < 15Price > Analyst TargetUNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
| NU | +7.0 | Financials | 13.2 | 0.80 | 52% | Nu Holdings Jumps 10% to a Five-Month High, StoneCo Drops 6% as Nubank Breaks From the PackprofitableFwd P/E < 15 |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
NO TRADE: every ranked play has a negative expected net gain after costs in the current regime. The table is a relative ordering, not a buy list.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RDDT | LONG | 42.1% | -0.21 | -0.46 | -1.07 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 34.4); Accelerating velocity +47.0 (16 mentions/12h); CIO meta-model current selection; Quality: F-score 7/9 |
| 2 | NU | LONG | 43.3% | -0.22 | -0.45 | -0.91 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 7.0); Accelerating velocity +12.0 (4 mentions/12h) |
| 3 | SKHY | LONG | 44.0% | -0.26 | -0.42 | -0.37 | High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum; Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 4 | ACM | LONG | 44.0% | -0.26 | -0.42 | -0.37 | Despair reversion: sentiment -5 but undervalued; Quality: F-score 7/9 |
| 5 | WDAY | LONG | 43.3% | -0.22 | -0.45 | -0.91 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 9.7); Accelerating velocity +7.6 (3 mentions/12h); ⚠ Price > Analyst Target; Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 6 | STNE | LONG | 44.0% | -0.26 | -0.42 | -0.37 | Despair reversion: sentiment -4 but undervalued |
| 7 | LUNR | LONG | 41.7% | -0.21 | -0.41 | -0.79 | Accelerating velocity +6.8 (2 mentions/12h) |
| 8 | CAVA | LONG | 42.6% | -0.20 | -0.51 | -1.37 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 10.7); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E |
Engine hit rate 43.2% over 264 scored calls (lower bound 37.3%), average net alpha -0.219%. Serving: rules.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
Cerebras Systems (CBRS) experienced a significant price plunge following earnings, signaling a market rejection of its valuation and a fundamental disconnect between AI hype and actual execution.
2026-08-13 12:40A tempered outlook due to underwhelming running-shoe sales in a high-multiple growth stock is a fundamental valuation reset catalyst rather than a temporary dip.
2026-08-13 00:13Safety concerns regarding Vykat in a biotech pipeline are fundamentally bearish catalysts as they increase regulatory risk and probability of clinical failure, outweighing speculative 'blood in the streets' buying opportunities.
2026-08-12 13:10A massive 17% jump following a blowout earnings beat suggests strong momentum and pricing power, but conviction is capped by the potential for 'sell the news' profit-taking and macro travel spending risks.
2026-08-10 10:50Nielsen's $2.15 billion takeover of DoubleVerify is a major bullish catalyst, but the stock will likely trade at a discount to the offer price due to deal risk and the correctness of the pre-announcement run-up.
2026-08-08 12:21The announcement of a cash buyout to take the company private is a primary catalyst for price convergence toward the offer price, though conviction is tempered by the M&A arbitrage spread and potential 'sell the news' dynamics.
2026-08-08 11:40Datadog's 19% plunge as a leader of the software sector slide suggests systemic risk and valuation reset rather than a temporary dip, signaling a high probability of continued downward pressure.
2026-08-08 05:11A price collapse following an earnings beat is a classic institutional distribution signal, indicating that the 'beat' was likely priced in or based on a lowered bar, suggesting a further downward trajectory.
2026-08-07 22:02The withdrawal of guidance and dividend slash signals a fundamental breakdown in cash flow visibility and management credibility, outweighing any 'blood in the streets' recovery narrative.
2026-08-07 14:53A 28% plunge following earnings is a violent confirmation of structural failure and fundamental devaluation rather than a temporary overreaction.
2026-08-06 21:46Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
| Ticker | Velocity | Vol | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| RDDT | +47.0 | 16 | RDDT Gains so far - Inclusion into SP500 |
| NU | +12.0 | 4 | Nu Holdings Jumps 10% to a Five-Month High, StoneCo Drops 6% as Nubank Breaks From the Pack |
| NBIS | +9.2 | 7 | 70k in NBIS LEAPS (SOLD) |
| WDAY | +7.6 | 3 | Workday buyout may restore confidence in battered software valuations, analysts say |
| LUNR | +6.8 | 2 | Why Intuitive Machines Stock Is Soaring Today |
Change in scored coverage over the last 12 hours versus the prior 12.
| ACM | -3.9 | Why Aecom Stock Crashed to a 52-Week Low This Week |
| STNE | -3.5 | Nu Holdings Jumps 10% to a Five-Month High, StoneCo Drops 6% as Nubank Breaks From the Pack |
| ACN | -3.3 | Why Accenture (ACN) Lost Its Place in This Portfolio |
| CBRS | -2.2 | Target Stock Flies To New Highs As Earnings Approach, But Walmart Stuck In Neutral |
| APP | -2.2 | APP Stock Alert: AppLovin's Latest Downgrade Sends Clear Signal on Growth Trajectory |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financials | +143 | +706 | +2,654 | |
| Information Technology | +137 | +600 | +834 | |
| Energybearish reversal | -71 | +363 | +2,073 | |
| Materialsbearish reversal | -25 | -9 | +79 | |
| Communication Servicesbullish reversal | +5 | -114 | -332 | |
| Health Care | -25 | -163 | -230 | |
| Industrials | -3 | -182 | -524 | |
| Utilities | -45 | -246 | -829 | |
| Consumer Staples | -60 | -278 | -703 | |
| Consumer Discretionarybullish reversal | +13 | -288 | -1,335 | |
| Real Estate | -65 | -393 | -1,683 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation | +85.5 | +60 | |
| Artificial Intelligence | +67.7 | +324 | |
| Stock Market | +41.5 | +52 | |
| Index Inclusion | +25.0 | +25 | |
| Bitcoin Mining | -10.0 | -7 | |
| Prediction Markets | -11.5 | -2 | |
| Consumer Spending | -12.7 | -12 | |
| AI Bubble | -13.2 | -15 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Markov Regime Engine | UP | 50% |
| Macro Factor Gate | UP | 55% |
Consensus: BULLISH
Weekly index projection: +0.70% (80% band -1.79% to +1.58%).
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 12.0% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 52% |
| Variance risk premium | — |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.56% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.49% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.57% |
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation | 0.83 | 1.3h | ELEVATED |
| Oil & Gas | 0.79 | 1.8h | ELEVATED |
| Artificial Intelligence | 0.77 | 0.7h | ELEVATED |
| Stock Market | 0.62 | 1.7h | SUBCRITICAL |
| M&A | 0.61 | 1.7h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Cloud & Data Centers | 0.60 | 1.5h | SUBCRITICAL |
| FinTech | 0.57 | 1.2h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Crypto & Digital Assets | 0.49 | 1.0h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 1,320 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 1,702 |
| Projected close of day | 1,648 |
| Daily average | 1,343 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 1.12× |
| Total in corpus | 155,789 |
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.