real time stock market sentiment dashboard
A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login, no sign-up.
Regime read: LONG · expected +2.81% ± 5.23% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.54 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Bull (85.1% posterior, +43.3%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.1373%/day and dominates. Net +0.1360%/day.
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RDDT | +36.2 | Communication Services | 18.5 | 1.03 | 36% | Reddit Shares Surge on S&P 500 Inclusion Later This Monthprofitable |
| WDAY | +29.0 | Information Technology | 15.7 | 0.72 | 63% | Stock Market Today, Aug. 13: Stocks Rise as Inflation Cools, Workday Soars 18%profitablePEGY < 0.75Price > Analyst Target |
| NU | +9.6 | Financials | 13.2 | 0.80 | 52% | Nubank's profit crosses $1 billion, beating estimates; shares jumpprofitableFwd P/E < 15 |
| CAVA | +9.4 | Consumer Discretionary | 100.3 | — | 56% | Cava's Stock Surges After Q2 Results. Is Now the Time to Buy?profitableExtended FWD P/E |
| NBIS | +8.1 | Communication Services | -92.6 | — | 91% | Why Nebius and CoreWeave Stocks Look Poised for More GainsFwd P/E < 15Price > Analyst TargetNear 52w High |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
NO TRADE: every ranked play has a negative expected net gain after costs in the current regime. The table is a relative ordering, not a buy list.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PYPL | LONG | 43.7% | -0.23 | -0.41 | -0.72 | Accelerating velocity +7.0 (2 mentions/12h); Quality: F-score 9/9 |
| 2 | WDAY | LONG | 43.4% | -0.22 | -0.43 | -0.93 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 29.2); Accelerating velocity +21.6 (6 mentions/12h); ⚠ Price > Analyst Target; Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 3 | RDDT | LONG | 42.7% | -0.20 | -0.50 | -1.41 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 36.4); Quality: F-score 7/9 |
| 4 | BIRK | LONG | 41.7% | -0.21 | -0.39 | -0.82 | Accelerating velocity +6.6 (2 mentions/12h); Quality: F-score 9/9 |
| 5 | IREN | LONG | 43.7% | -0.23 | -0.41 | -0.72 | Accelerating velocity +2.4 (2 mentions/12h) |
| 6 | ONDS | LONG | 44.2% | -0.26 | -0.40 | -0.38 | Despair reversion: sentiment -6 but undervalued |
| 7 | NU | LONG | 42.7% | -0.20 | -0.50 | -1.41 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 9.7) |
| 8 | RKLB | LONG | 41.7% | -0.21 | -0.39 | -0.82 | Accelerating velocity +2.6 (2 mentions/12h) |
Engine hit rate 44.1% over 270 scored calls (lower bound 38.3%), average net alpha -0.163%. Serving: rules.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
A 29% plunge following a revenue guidance cut for 2026 suggests a systemic growth failure rather than a temporary dip, signaling a fundamental erosion of trust in management's execution.
2026-08-15 03:37Cerebras Systems (CBRS) experienced a significant price plunge following earnings, signaling a market rejection of its valuation and a fundamental disconnect between AI hype and actual execution.
2026-08-13 12:40A tempered outlook due to underwhelming running-shoe sales in a high-multiple growth stock is a fundamental valuation reset catalyst rather than a temporary dip.
2026-08-13 00:13Safety concerns regarding Vykat in a biotech pipeline are fundamentally bearish catalysts as they increase regulatory risk and probability of clinical failure, outweighing speculative 'blood in the streets' buying opportunities.
2026-08-12 13:10A massive 17% jump following a blowout earnings beat suggests strong momentum and pricing power, but conviction is capped by the potential for 'sell the news' profit-taking and macro travel spending risks.
2026-08-10 10:50Nielsen's $2.15 billion takeover of DoubleVerify is a major bullish catalyst, but the stock will likely trade at a discount to the offer price due to deal risk and the correctness of the pre-announcement run-up.
2026-08-08 12:21The announcement of a cash buyout to take the company private is a primary catalyst for price convergence toward the offer price, though conviction is tempered by the M&A arbitrage spread and potential 'sell the news' dynamics.
2026-08-08 11:40Datadog's 19% plunge as a leader of the software sector slide suggests systemic risk and valuation reset rather than a temporary dip, signaling a high probability of continued downward pressure.
2026-08-08 05:11A price collapse following an earnings beat is a classic institutional distribution signal, indicating that the 'beat' was likely priced in or based on a lowered bar, suggesting a further downward trajectory.
2026-08-07 22:02The withdrawal of guidance and dividend slash signals a fundamental breakdown in cash flow visibility and management credibility, outweighing any 'blood in the streets' recovery narrative.
2026-08-07 14:53Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
| Ticker | Velocity | Vol | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| WDAY | +21.6 | 6 | Stock Market Today, Aug. 13: Stocks Rise as Inflation Cools, Workday Soars 18% |
| PYPL | +7.0 | 2 | PayPal Stock Closes 1.9% Above $60.50 Bid as Talks Continue |
| BIRK | +6.6 | 2 | Birkenstock Rallies on Forecast; StubHub Falls on Earnings |
| RKLB | +2.6 | 2 | A $2 Billion Reason Why Rocket Lab Stock Is in Focus Today |
| IREN | +2.4 | 2 | Why Iren Stock Topped the Market on Thursday |
Change in scored coverage over the last 12 hours versus the prior 12.
| ACN | -4.9 | The Gap Between ACN Stock And Its Own Numbers |
| CLBT | -4.4 | Stock Market Today, Aug. 13: Cellebrite Shares Plummet 29% After Missing Earnings, Cutting 2026 Revenue Guidance |
| CBRS | -4.2 | AI Demand Is Booming. So Why Are CBRS and CSCO Sinking? |
| ONON | -4.2 | On Holding (ONON) Just Had Its Worst Trading Day Ever. Did Investors Overreact? |
| ACM | -3.5 | Why Aecom Stock Crashed to a 52-Week Low This Week |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financials | +121 | +734 | +2,631 | |
| Information Technology | +155 | +655 | +861 | |
| Energybearish reversal | -53 | +313 | +2,011 | |
| Materialsbearish reversal | -27 | -26 | +87 | |
| Communication Servicesbullish reversal | +19 | -95 | -317 | |
| Health Care | -17 | -157 | -224 | |
| Industrials | -28 | -209 | -529 | |
| Utilities | -36 | -244 | -835 | |
| Consumer Discretionary | -35 | -286 | -1,319 | |
| Consumer Staples | -62 | -291 | -709 | |
| Real Estate | -39 | -397 | -1,653 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation | +80.0 | +62 | |
| Interest Rates | +67.0 | +49 | |
| Artificial Intelligence | +53.5 | +320 | |
| Space Exploration | +33.8 | +47 | |
| Market Volatility | -11.7 | -21 | |
| Consumer Spending | -20.5 | -20 | |
| Economic Growth | -22.5 | -20 | |
| US Economy | -59.8 | -59 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Markov Regime Engine | UP | 50% |
| Macro Factor Gate | UP | 55% |
Consensus: BULLISH
Weekly index projection: +0.73% (80% band -2.12% to +1.69%).
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 12.0% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 52% |
| Variance risk premium | +1.9 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.56% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.49% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.57% |
Premium in normal range — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.06 in-sample / 0.13 OOS, worst 0.06) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation | 0.81 | 1.2h | ELEVATED |
| Oil & Gas | 0.80 | 1.8h | ELEVATED |
| Artificial Intelligence | 0.79 | 0.7h | ELEVATED |
| M&A | 0.68 | 1.6h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Stock Market | 0.67 | 2.0h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Cloud & Data Centers | 0.64 | 1.7h | SUBCRITICAL |
| FinTech | 0.58 | 1.0h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Crypto & Digital Assets | 0.50 | 1.0h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 456 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 1,643 |
| Projected close of day | 1,287 |
| Daily average | 1,350 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 1.44× |
| Total in corpus | 156,568 |
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.