real time stock market sentiment dashboard
A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login, no sign-up.
Regime read: LONG · expected +2.81% ± 5.23% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.54 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Bull (85.1% posterior, +43.3%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.1373%/day and dominates. Net +0.1360%/day.
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RDDT | +37.2 | Communication Services | 18.5 | 1.03 | 36% | Reddit set for indexation boost, due on S&P 500 later this monthprofitable |
| WDAY | +24.1 | Information Technology | 15.7 | 0.72 | 63% | Workday takeover chatter could mark a turning point for software stocksprofitablePEGY < 0.75Price > Analyst Target |
| NU | +14.3 | Financials | 13.2 | 0.80 | 52% | Nu Holdings Banks More Than Half the Adults in BrazilprofitableFwd P/E < 15 |
| CAVA | +6.9 | Consumer Discretionary | 100.3 | — | 56% | Cava's Stock Surges After Q2 Results. Is Now the Time to Buy?profitableExtended FWD P/E |
| GEV | +6.5 | Industrials | 42.2 | 1.66 | 80% | Could AI Infrastructure Fuel GE Vernova’s (GEV) Next Rally?profitableExtended FWD P/EMean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
NO TRADE: every ranked play has a negative expected net gain after costs in the current regime. The table is a relative ordering, not a buy list.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NU | LONG | 43.4% | -0.22 | -0.43 | -0.93 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 14.4); Accelerating velocity +9.6 (3 mentions/12h) |
| 2 | RDDT | LONG | 42.2% | -0.20 | -0.44 | -1.10 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 37.5); Accelerating velocity +5.6 (5 mentions/12h); Quality: F-score 7/9 |
| 3 | WDAY | LONG | 43.4% | -0.22 | -0.43 | -0.93 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 24.3); Accelerating velocity +5.4 (3 mentions/12h); ⚠ Price > Analyst Target; Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 4 | ELF | LONG | 41.7% | -0.21 | -0.39 | -0.82 | Accelerating velocity +7.0 (2 mentions/12h) |
| 5 | MP | LONG | 41.7% | -0.21 | -0.39 | -0.82 | Accelerating velocity +6.2 (2 mentions/12h) |
| 6 | CAVA | LONG | 42.7% | -0.20 | -0.50 | -1.41 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 7.0); CIO meta-model current selection; ⚠ Extended FWD P/E |
| 7 | GEV | LONG | 42.7% | -0.20 | -0.50 | -1.41 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 6.5); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Mean Reversion: Euphoria (Short); Quality: F-score 7/9 |
Engine hit rate 44.5% over 274 scored calls (lower bound 38.8%), average net alpha -0.118%. Serving: rules.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
S&P 500 deletion triggers non-discretionary passive selling pressure that typically outweighs short-term fundamental value gaps until a liquidity bottom is found.
2026-08-15 11:12A 29% plunge following a revenue guidance cut for 2026 suggests a systemic growth failure rather than a temporary dip, signaling a fundamental erosion of trust in management's execution.
2026-08-15 03:37Cerebras Systems (CBRS) experienced a significant price plunge following earnings, signaling a market rejection of its valuation and a fundamental disconnect between AI hype and actual execution.
2026-08-13 12:40A tempered outlook due to underwhelming running-shoe sales in a high-multiple growth stock is a fundamental valuation reset catalyst rather than a temporary dip.
2026-08-13 00:13Safety concerns regarding Vykat in a biotech pipeline are fundamentally bearish catalysts as they increase regulatory risk and probability of clinical failure, outweighing speculative 'blood in the streets' buying opportunities.
2026-08-12 13:10A massive 17% jump following a blowout earnings beat suggests strong momentum and pricing power, but conviction is capped by the potential for 'sell the news' profit-taking and macro travel spending risks.
2026-08-10 10:50Nielsen's $2.15 billion takeover of DoubleVerify is a major bullish catalyst, but the stock will likely trade at a discount to the offer price due to deal risk and the correctness of the pre-announcement run-up.
2026-08-08 12:21The announcement of a cash buyout to take the company private is a primary catalyst for price convergence toward the offer price, though conviction is tempered by the M&A arbitrage spread and potential 'sell the news' dynamics.
2026-08-08 11:40Datadog's 19% plunge as a leader of the software sector slide suggests systemic risk and valuation reset rather than a temporary dip, signaling a high probability of continued downward pressure.
2026-08-08 05:11A price collapse following an earnings beat is a classic institutional distribution signal, indicating that the 'beat' was likely priced in or based on a lowered bar, suggesting a further downward trajectory.
2026-08-07 22:02Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
| Ticker | Velocity | Vol | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| NU | +9.6 | 3 | Nu Holdings Banks More Than Half the Adults in Brazil |
| ELF | +7.0 | 2 | e.l.f. Beauty (ELF) Just Logged Its 30th Growth Quarter. Can The Streak Hold? |
| MP | +6.2 | 2 | MP Materials vs. The Metals Company: Which Critical-Minerals Stock Is the Smarter Long-Term Buy? |
| RDDT | +5.6 | 5 | Reddit set for indexation boost, due on S&P 500 later this month |
| WDAY | +5.4 | 3 | Workday takeover chatter could mark a turning point for software stocks |
Change in scored coverage over the last 12 hours versus the prior 12.
| CBRS | -5.0 | Dow Jones Futures: Sandisk, Memory Stocks Extend Gains; Applied Materials Tumbles |
| BTDR | -4.1 | Why Investors Were Cold on Bitdeer Technologies Stock This Week |
| ACN | -3.7 | The Gap Between ACN Stock And Its Own Numbers |
| CLBT | -3.2 | Stock Market Today, Aug. 13: Cellebrite Shares Plummet 29% After Missing Earnings, Cutting 2026 Revenue Guidance |
| ONON | -3.1 | On Holding (ONON) Just Had Its Worst Trading Day Ever. Did Investors Overreact? |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financials | +67 | +734 | +2,530 | |
| Information Technology | +144 | +682 | +871 | |
| Energybearish reversal | -44 | +294 | +1,988 | |
| Materialsbearish reversal | -16 | -27 | +110 | |
| Communication Servicesbullish reversal | +17 | -89 | -300 | |
| Health Care | -13 | -148 | -210 | |
| Industrials | -38 | -220 | -513 | |
| Utilities | -16 | -256 | -829 | |
| Consumer Discretionary | -39 | -278 | -1,313 | |
| Consumer Staples | -47 | -288 | -687 | |
| Real Estate | -13 | -405 | -1,646 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation | +65.7 | +50 | |
| Interest Rates | +51.2 | +31 | |
| Artificial Intelligence | +32.2 | +307 | |
| M&A | +30.3 | +53 | |
| Oil Prices | -24.5 | +32 | |
| Economic Growth | -34.5 | -32 | |
| Market Volatility | -41.0 | -48 | |
| US Economy | -69.3 | -69 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Markov Regime Engine | UP | 50% |
| Macro Factor Gate | UP | 55% |
Consensus: BULLISH
Weekly index projection: +0.69% (80% band -2.20% to +1.65%).
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 12.0% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 52% |
| Variance risk premium | +1.9 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.56% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.49% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.57% |
Premium in normal range — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.06 in-sample / 0.13 OOS, worst 0.06) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation | 0.84 | 1.3h | ELEVATED |
| Oil & Gas | 0.81 | 1.9h | ELEVATED |
| Artificial Intelligence | 0.80 | 0.8h | ELEVATED |
| M&A | 0.70 | 1.7h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Stock Market | 0.69 | 1.9h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Cloud & Data Centers | 0.64 | 1.7h | SUBCRITICAL |
| FinTech | 0.58 | 1.0h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Interest Rates | 0.56 | 0.6h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 985 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 1,643 |
| Projected close of day | 1,391 |
| Daily average | 1,354 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 1.48× |
| Total in corpus | 157,097 |
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.