real time stock market sentiment dashboard
A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login, no sign-up.
Regime read: LONG · expected +2.85% ± 5.22% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.55 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Bull (85.3% posterior, +43.2%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.1374%/day and dominates. Net +0.1367%/day.
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RDDT | +24.6 | Communication Services | 18.5 | 1.15 | 36% | Reddit’s S&P 500 debut could unleash nearly $3 billion of index-fund buyingprofitable |
| WDAY | +16.0 | Information Technology | 15.7 | 0.78 | 63% | Workday’s $51 billion takeover talks could reset the software tradeprofitablePrice > Analyst Target |
| PLTR | +6.7 | Information Technology | 75.2 | 2.34 | 67% | Up Over 35% Since Aug. 3, Is it Too Late to Buy Palantir Stock?profitableExtended FWD P/EExpensive PEGY (>2) |
| UBER | +5.0 | Information Technology | 17.3 | 8.43 | 29% | Pony.ai (PONY) and Uber (UBER) Team Up For A Bigger BetprofitableExpensive PEGY (>2) |
| NU | +4.7 | Financials | 13.4 | 0.90 | 52% | Nu Holdings Banks More Than Half the Adults in BrazilprofitableFwd P/E < 15 |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
NO TRADE: every ranked play has a negative expected net gain after costs in the current regime. The table is a relative ordering, not a buy list.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GDDY | LONG | 40.3% | -0.33 | -0.35 | -0.40 | High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum |
| 2 | MRX | LONG | 50.5% | -0.20 | -0.50 | -1.41 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 4.5); ⚠ Near 52w High |
| 3 | NTLA | LONG | 39.7% | -0.33 | -0.35 | -0.40 | Despair reversion: sentiment -4 but undervalued |
| 4 | RDDT | LONG | 30.9% | -0.20 | -0.50 | -1.41 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 24.9); Quality: F-score 7/9 |
| 5 | NU | LONG | 37.8% | -0.20 | -0.50 | -1.41 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 4.8) |
| 6 | NVR | LONG | 35.3% | -0.21 | -0.39 | -0.82 | Accelerating velocity +1.8 (2 mentions/12h) |
| 7 | PLTR | LONG | 41.1% | -0.20 | -0.50 | -1.41 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 6.8); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Expensive PEGY (>2); Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 8 | WDAY | LONG | 18.3% | -0.20 | -0.44 | -1.10 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 16.1); Accelerating velocity +0.6 (2 mentions/12h); ⚠ Price > Analyst Target; Quality: F-score 8/9 |
Engine hit rate 44.6% over 287 scored calls (lower bound 39.0%), average net alpha -0.137%. Serving: incumbent.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
Teledyne Technologies' acquisition of Varex Imaging Corporation (VREX) at a 52% premium provides a strong bullish catalyst, but risk-adjusted conviction is-capped to avoid treating the nominal offer price as an absolute physical floor.
2026-08-16 01:20S&P 500 deletion triggers non-discretionary passive selling pressure that typically outweighs short-term fundamental value gaps until a liquidity bottom is found.
2026-08-15 11:12A 29% plunge following a revenue guidance cut for 2026 suggests a systemic growth failure rather than a temporary dip, signaling a fundamental erosion of trust in management's execution.
2026-08-15 03:37Cerebras Systems (CBRS) experienced a significant price plunge following earnings, signaling a market rejection of its valuation and a fundamental disconnect between AI hype and actual execution.
2026-08-13 12:40A tempered outlook due to underwhelming running-shoe sales in a high-multiple growth stock is a fundamental valuation reset catalyst rather than a temporary dip.
2026-08-13 00:13Safety concerns regarding Vykat in a biotech pipeline are fundamentally bearish catalysts as they increase regulatory risk and probability of clinical failure, outweighing speculative 'blood in the streets' buying opportunities.
2026-08-12 13:10A massive 17% jump following a blowout earnings beat suggests strong momentum and pricing power, but conviction is capped by the potential for 'sell the news' profit-taking and macro travel spending risks.
2026-08-10 10:50Nielsen's $2.15 billion takeover of DoubleVerify is a major bullish catalyst, but the stock will likely trade at a discount to the offer price due to deal risk and the correctness of the pre-announcement run-up.
2026-08-08 12:21The announcement of a cash buyout to take the company private is a primary catalyst for price convergence toward the offer price, though conviction is tempered by the M&A arbitrage spread and potential 'sell the news' dynamics.
2026-08-08 11:40Datadog's 19% plunge as a leader of the software sector slide suggests systemic risk and valuation reset rather than a temporary dip, signaling a high probability of continued downward pressure.
2026-08-08 05:11Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
| Ticker | Velocity | Vol | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVR | +1.8 | 2 | NVR director George Oliver buys $405,185 in company stock |
| WDAY | +0.6 | 2 | Workday’s $51 billion takeover talks could reset the software trade |
Change in scored coverage over the last 12 hours versus the prior 12.
| APPF | -4.6 | An AppFolio Insider Has Been Selling for Weeks. Here's What to Know |
| NTLA | -4.0 | Natera director Jonathan Sheena sells $2.89m in stock |
| SVV | -3.4 | Savers value village general counsel Medway sells $648,900 in shares |
| CBOE | -2.9 | Cboe Global Markets (CBOE) Stock May Be Fully Valued After A 144% Run |
| SN | -2.0 | SharkNinja CCO Neil Shah sells $5.5m in company stock |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financials | +56 | +706 | +2,404 | |
| Information Technology | +30 | +687 | +1,106 | |
| Energy | +0 | +281 | +1,805 | |
| Materials | +10 | -17 | +135 | |
| Communication Servicesbullish reversal | +3 | -68 | -279 | |
| Health Carebullish reversal | +12 | -133 | -180 | |
| Industrials | -16 | -209 | -518 | |
| Utilities | -17 | -244 | -858 | |
| Consumer Staples | -14 | -282 | -683 | |
| Consumer Discretionary | -37 | -289 | -1,297 | |
| Real Estate | -28 | -433 | -1,632 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Geopolitical Risk | +14.3 | -3 | |
| Interest Rates | +12.3 | -10 | |
| Crypto Regulation | +11.7 | +14 | |
| Tax Reform | +10.0 | +9 | |
| Stock Market | -21.5 | 0 | |
| Semiconductors | -25.2 | +6 | |
| Oil Prices | -54.0 | +5 | |
| Artificial Intelligence | -167.8 | +137 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Markov Regime Engine | UP | 50% |
| Macro Factor Gate | UP | 55% |
Consensus: BULLISH
Weekly index projection: +0.63% (80% band -1.96% to +1.65%).
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 12.0% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 52% |
| Variance risk premium | +1.9 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.56% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.49% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.57% |
Premium in normal range — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.06 in-sample / 0.13 OOS, worst 0.06) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil & Gas | 0.84 | 1.8h | ELEVATED |
| Inflation | 0.81 | 1.2h | ELEVATED |
| Artificial Intelligence | 0.79 | 0.7h | ELEVATED |
| Stock Market | 0.60 | 1.8h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Interest Rates | 0.60 | 0.8h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Cloud & Data Centers | 0.58 | 1.6h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Aerospace & Defense | 0.53 | 1.3h | SUBCRITICAL |
| FinTech | 0.52 | 0.9h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 692 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 1,322 |
| Projected close of day | 784 |
| Daily average | 1,340 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 0.75× |
| Total in corpus | 158,126 |
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.