real time stock market sentiment dashboard
A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login, no sign-up.
Regime read: LONG · expected +2.86% ± 5.20% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.55 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Bull (87.0% posterior, +42.9%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.1390%/day and dominates. Net +0.1385%/day.
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RDDT | +13.4 | Communication Services | 18.1 | 1.15 | 33% | Reddit's Data Licensing Revenue Grew 24% to $43 Million, With OpenAI and Google as Its Two Biggest Buyers. Here's Why That Number Is So Tiny.profitable |
| UBER | +11.9 | Information Technology | 17.4 | 8.43 | 30% | Uber, Zipline partner on US drone delivery for Uber EatsprofitableExpensive PEGY (>2)Mean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
| BABA | +9.6 | Consumer Discretionary | 13.8 | 0.51 | 33% | Alibaba sells Lingxi Games to Trustar Capital for $1.5 billionprofitablePEGY < 0.75Fwd P/E < 15 |
| SOFI | +5.0 | Financials | 22.5 | 0.88 | 19% | SoFi Is Dividing Wall Street. This Is the Bull Case for the Fintech Stock.profitable |
| TTMI | +4.3 | Information Technology | 20.3 | 0.36 | 55% | TTM Technologies (TTMI) Shares Surge Following Strong Results and Outlook RaiseconvictionprofitablePEGY < 0.75 |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
NO TRADE: every ranked play has a negative expected net gain after costs in the current regime. The table is a relative ordering, not a buy list.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SNAP | LONG | 51.5% | -0.34 | -0.24 | -0.33 | Despair reversion: sentiment -7 but undervalued; Quality: F-score 7/9 |
| 2 | WDAY | LONG | 51.5% | -0.34 | -0.24 | -0.33 | Despair reversion: sentiment -5 but undervalued; Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 3 | TTMI | LONG | 46.3% | -0.28 | -0.34 | -0.81 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 4.3); Valuation corroborated (PEGY/fwd-PE/EV checks); High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum; Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 4 | KKR | LONG | 44.7% | -0.28 | -0.34 | -0.81 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 4.0); Valuation corroborated (PEGY/fwd-PE/EV checks); High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum |
| 5 | MBLY | LONG | 26.6% | -0.20 | -0.35 | -0.65 | Accelerating velocity +6.0 (2 mentions/12h); Insider cluster buying (2 buys/90d) |
| 6 | RDDT | LONG | 20.9% | -0.21 | -0.43 | -1.30 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 13.5); CIO meta-model current selection; Quality: F-score 7/9 |
| 7 | BABA | LONG | 18.8% | -0.21 | -0.39 | -0.96 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 9.7); Valuation corroborated (PEGY/fwd-PE/EV checks); Accelerating velocity +11.6 (5 mentions/12h); ⚠ Earnings in 3d — event risk inside hold window |
| 8 | UBER | LONG | 17.8% | -0.21 | -0.39 | -0.96 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 12.0); Accelerating velocity +8.2 (3 mentions/12h); ⚠ Expensive PEGY (>2); Mean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
Engine hit rate 44.6% over 287 scored calls (lower bound 39.0%), average net alpha -0.137%. Serving: incumbent.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
Teledyne Technologies' acquisition of Varex Imaging Corporation (VREX) at a 52% premium provides a strong bullish catalyst, but risk-adjusted conviction is-capped to avoid treating the nominal offer price as an absolute physical floor.
2026-08-16 01:20S&P 500 deletion triggers non-discretionary passive selling pressure that typically outweighs short-term fundamental value gaps until a liquidity bottom is found.
2026-08-15 11:12A 29% plunge following a revenue guidance cut for 2026 suggests a systemic growth failure rather than a temporary dip, signaling a fundamental erosion of trust in management's execution.
2026-08-15 03:37Cerebras Systems (CBRS) experienced a significant price plunge following earnings, signaling a market rejection of its valuation and a fundamental disconnect between AI hype and actual execution.
2026-08-13 12:40A tempered outlook due to underwhelming running-shoe sales in a high-multiple growth stock is a fundamental valuation reset catalyst rather than a temporary dip.
2026-08-13 00:13Safety concerns regarding Vykat in a biotech pipeline are fundamentally bearish catalysts as they increase regulatory risk and probability of clinical failure, outweighing speculative 'blood in the streets' buying opportunities.
2026-08-12 13:10A massive 17% jump following a blowout earnings beat suggests strong momentum and pricing power, but conviction is capped by the potential for 'sell the news' profit-taking and macro travel spending risks.
2026-08-10 10:50Nielsen's $2.15 billion takeover of DoubleVerify is a major bullish catalyst, but the stock will likely trade at a discount to the offer price due to deal risk and the correctness of the pre-announcement run-up.
2026-08-08 12:21The announcement of a cash buyout to take the company private is a primary catalyst for price convergence toward the offer price, though conviction is tempered by the M&A arbitrage spread and potential 'sell the news' dynamics.
2026-08-08 11:40Datadog's 19% plunge as a leader of the software sector slide suggests systemic risk and valuation reset rather than a temporary dip, signaling a high probability of continued downward pressure.
2026-08-08 05:11Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
| Ticker | Velocity | Vol | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| BABA | +11.6 | 5 | Alibaba sells Lingxi Games to Trustar Capital for $1.5 billion |
| UBER | +8.2 | 3 | Uber, Zipline partner on US drone delivery for Uber Eats |
| MBLY | +6.0 | 2 | Why is Mobileye stock jumping over 3% today? |
| SOFI | +5.0 | 2 | SoFi Is Dividing Wall Street. This Is the Bull Case for the Fintech Stock. |
Change in scored coverage over the last 12 hours versus the prior 12.
| SNAP | -8.5 | Snapchat's stock drops 4% thousands of lawsuits threaten the company |
| WING | -4.0 | Wingstop Stock Is Down 62% in 1 Year. Could the Sell-Off Be Nearing an End? |
| INSP | -3.0 | Earnings call transcript: InspireMD Q2 2026 revenue miss weighs on shares |
| MORN | -2.9 | GenAI Disruption Fears Pullback in Morningstar (MORN) Despite Solid Financial Fundamentals |
| SVV | -2.9 | Savers value village CFO Michael Maher sells $613,417 in shares |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Information Technology | +57 | +731 | +1,280 | |
| Financials | +94 | +649 | +2,421 | |
| Energy | +28 | +200 | +1,706 | |
| Materials | +22 | -3 | +166 | |
| Communication Services | -7 | -58 | -284 | |
| Health Care | -2 | -100 | -177 | |
| Industrials | -24 | -182 | -538 | |
| Utilities | -20 | -220 | -871 | |
| Consumer Staples | -31 | -269 | -697 | |
| Consumer Discretionary | -80 | -328 | -1,353 | |
| Real Estate | -37 | -422 | -1,653 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Capital Markets | +20.2 | +29 | |
| Monetary Policy | +19.2 | +14 | |
| Emerging Markets | +13.5 | +16 | |
| Electric Vehicles | +11.3 | +11 | |
| Stagflation | -20.0 | -20 | |
| Cryptocurrency | -22.2 | -10 | |
| Oil Prices | -31.3 | +16 | |
| Artificial Intelligence | -145.5 | +156 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Markov Regime Engine | UP | 50% |
| Macro Factor Gate | UP | 55% |
Consensus: BULLISH
Weekly index projection: +0.68% (80% band -1.84% to +1.89%).
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 11.4% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 49% |
| Variance risk premium | +3.0 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.56% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.48% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.55% |
Premium in normal range — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.06 in-sample / 0.14 OOS, worst 0.06) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation | 0.84 | 1.4h | ELEVATED |
| Oil & Gas | 0.79 | 1.4h | ELEVATED |
| M&A | 0.63 | 1.6h | SUBCRITICAL |
| FinTech | 0.59 | 1.0h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Cloud & Data Centers | 0.57 | 1.3h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Aerospace & Defense | 0.51 | 1.0h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Stock Market | 0.50 | 1.3h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Crypto & Digital Assets | 0.50 | 0.8h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 869 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 784 |
| Projected close of day | 1,447 |
| Daily average | 1,348 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 0.75× |
| Total in corpus | 159,087 |
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.