real time stock market sentiment dashboard
A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login, no sign-up.
Regime read: LONG · expected +2.79% ± 5.26% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.53 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Bull (81.5% posterior, +42.7%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.1304%/day and dominates. Net +0.1295%/day.
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RDDT | +9.7 | Communication Services | 17.1 | 1.15 | 28% | [DD] Why $RDDT goes to $1,000 the exact second their AI team figures out Post-Nut Clarityprofitable |
| UBER | +8.5 | Information Technology | 17.1 | 8.43 | 26% | Uber and Zipline partner on drone delivery for Uber EatsprofitableExpensive PEGY (>2) |
| BABA | +6.6 | Consumer Discretionary | 13.7 | 0.51 | 32% | Alibaba sells Lingxi Games to Trustar Capital for $1.5 billionprofitablePEGY < 0.75Fwd P/E < 15 |
| SNDK | +5.0 | Information Technology | 6.8 | — | 75% | SNDK gainsprofitableFwd P/E < 15 |
| KKR | +3.9 | Financials | 14.7 | 0.58 | 38% | KKR (KKR) Remains Strong Despite Credit FearsconvictionprofitablePEGY < 0.75Fwd P/E < 15 |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
NO TRADE: every ranked play has a negative expected net gain after costs in the current regime. The table is a relative ordering, not a buy list.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TTMI | LONG | 51.0% | -0.33 | -0.25 | -0.34 | High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum; Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 2 | CPRI | LONG | 39.7% | -0.33 | -0.25 | -0.34 | Despair reversion: sentiment -4 but undervalued; Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 3 | KKR | LONG | 37.1% | -0.27 | -0.36 | -0.76 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 3.9); Valuation corroborated (PEGY/fwd-PE/EV checks); High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum; Accelerating velocity +7.0 (2 mentions/12h) |
| 4 | SNDK | LONG | 29.6% | -0.24 | -0.40 | -0.88 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 5.0); Accelerating velocity +8.0 (3 mentions/12h) |
| 5 | RDDT | LONG | 20.2% | -0.21 | -0.45 | -1.30 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 9.8); CIO meta-model current selection; Quality: F-score 7/9 |
| 6 | SPCX | LONG | 22.2% | -0.20 | -0.35 | -0.65 | Accelerating velocity +10.4 (3 mentions/12h) |
| 7 | BABA | LONG | 22.6% | -0.20 | -0.40 | -0.96 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 6.6); Valuation corroborated (PEGY/fwd-PE/EV checks); Accelerating velocity +10.4 (4 mentions/12h); ⚠ Earnings in 3d — event risk inside hold window |
| 8 | UBER | LONG | 18.5% | -0.20 | -0.40 | -0.96 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 8.6); Accelerating velocity +11.2 (4 mentions/12h); ⚠ Expensive PEGY (>2) |
Engine hit rate 44.4% over 288 scored calls (lower bound 38.8%), average net alpha -0.140%. Serving: incumbent.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
Teledyne Technologies' acquisition of Varex Imaging Corporation (VREX) at a 52% premium provides a strong bullish catalyst, but risk-adjusted conviction is-capped to avoid treating the nominal offer price as an absolute physical floor.
2026-08-16 01:20S&P 500 deletion triggers non-discretionary passive selling pressure that typically outweighs short-term fundamental value gaps until a liquidity bottom is found.
2026-08-15 11:12A 29% plunge following a revenue guidance cut for 2026 suggests a systemic growth failure rather than a temporary dip, signaling a fundamental erosion of trust in management's execution.
2026-08-15 03:37Cerebras Systems (CBRS) experienced a significant price plunge following earnings, signaling a market rejection of its valuation and a fundamental disconnect between AI hype and actual execution.
2026-08-13 12:40A tempered outlook due to underwhelming running-shoe sales in a high-multiple growth stock is a fundamental valuation reset catalyst rather than a temporary dip.
2026-08-13 00:13Safety concerns regarding Vykat in a biotech pipeline are fundamentally bearish catalysts as they increase regulatory risk and probability of clinical failure, outweighing speculative 'blood in the streets' buying opportunities.
2026-08-12 13:10A massive 17% jump following a blowout earnings beat suggests strong momentum and pricing power, but conviction is capped by the potential for 'sell the news' profit-taking and macro travel spending risks.
2026-08-10 10:50Nielsen's $2.15 billion takeover of DoubleVerify is a major bullish catalyst, but the stock will likely trade at a discount to the offer price due to deal risk and the correctness of the pre-announcement run-up.
2026-08-08 12:21The announcement of a cash buyout to take the company private is a primary catalyst for price convergence toward the offer price, though conviction is tempered by the M&A arbitrage spread and potential 'sell the news' dynamics.
2026-08-08 11:40Datadog's 19% plunge as a leader of the software sector slide suggests systemic risk and valuation reset rather than a temporary dip, signaling a high probability of continued downward pressure.
2026-08-08 05:11Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
| Ticker | Velocity | Vol | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| UBER | +11.2 | 4 | Uber and Zipline partner on drone delivery for Uber Eats |
| SPCX | +10.4 | 3 | SpaceX Stock Tests Resistance, Attempts To Retake Debut Price |
| BABA | +10.4 | 4 | Alibaba sells Lingxi Games to Trustar Capital for $1.5 billion |
| SNDK | +8.0 | 3 | SNDK gains |
| KKR | +7.0 | 2 | KKR (KKR) Remains Strong Despite Credit Fears |
Change in scored coverage over the last 12 hours versus the prior 12.
| SNAP | -8.3 | Snap Drops 3% After Ninth Circuit Strips Away Its Immunity Shield, Reddit Eases |
| CPRI | -3.3 | Capri Holdings stock hits 52-week low at 14.77 USD |
| ONDS | -3.2 | Red Cat Slides 4% on Maritime Autonomy Deal, Ondas Holdings Pulls Back |
| MXL | -2.7 | MaxLinear Stock Sells At A Price Its Trailing Year Cannot Explain |
| INSP | -2.6 | Earnings call transcript: InspireMD Q2 2026 revenue miss weighs on shares |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Information Technology | +89 | +737 | +1,319 | |
| Financials | +90 | +638 | +2,402 | |
| Energy | +61 | +189 | +1,723 | |
| Materials | +20 | -2 | +175 | |
| Communication Services | -23 | -64 | -289 | |
| Health Care | -2 | -88 | -171 | |
| Industrials | -30 | -184 | -545 | |
| Utilities | -23 | -211 | -874 | |
| Consumer Staples | -45 | -274 | -702 | |
| Consumer Discretionary | -98 | -336 | -1,376 | |
| Real Estate | -37 | -408 | -1,665 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monetary Policy | +25.2 | +20 | |
| Biotechnology | +15.5 | +25 | |
| US Economy | +15.5 | +1 | |
| Emerging Markets | +14.7 | +17 | |
| Retail Sales | -22.2 | -22 | |
| Stagflation | -24.0 | -24 | |
| Consumer Sentiment | -28.5 | -30 | |
| Artificial Intelligence | -61.8 | +233 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Theme | Sources | Conviction | |
|---|---|---|---|
| financial regulation | 144 | 82 | |
| defense security | 122 | 74 | |
| banking | 121 | 75 | |
| transport mobility | 115 | 65 | |
| geopolitics | 108 | 75 | |
| healthcare policy | 106 | 62 | |
| monetary policy | 99 | 66 | |
| agriculture food | 82 | 74 | |
| education skills | 72 | 45 | |
| capital markets | 60 | 59 |
A slower reading than the panels above. Sources counts the documents behind a theme; conviction weighs how many independent sources agree, how recent they are and how strong the signal is. Moves over weeks, not hours.
| Ticker | Company | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| LMT | Lockheed Martin | 1,015 |
| Major prime contractor for integrated air and missile defense systems. defense security, financial regulation, geopolitics, trade policy | ||
| BLK | BlackRock | 998 |
| Its Aladdin platform is a primary tool for institutional risk management amid monetary policy shifts. banking, financial regulation, geopolitics, monetary policy | ||
| PLTR | Palantir Technologies | 745 |
| Provides data integration and analytics platforms used by governments for fraud detection and intelligence. defense security, financial regulation, geopolitics, industrial policy | ||
| MSCI | MSCI Inc | 615 |
| Provides critical data and transparency tools that help firms meet evolving regulatory reporting standards. banking, financial regulation | ||
| JPM | JPMorgan Chase & Co | 595 |
| High exposure to US regulatory scrutiny and the associated costs of maintaining massive compliance operations. banking, financial regulation, monetary policy | ||
| ICE | Intercontinental Exchange | 478 |
| Operates global exchanges and clearing houses benefiting from modernized market plumbing. capital markets, financial regulation, monetary policy | ||
| HDB | HDFC Bank | 448 |
| Strong internal governance and compliance frameworks provide a relative advantage over smaller peers during regulatory crackdowns. banking, financial regulation, monetary policy | ||
| MUFG | Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group | 443 |
| Large Japanese bank exposed to Bank of Japan monetary base and liquidity operations. banking, financial regulation, monetary policy | ||
| RTX | RTX Corporation | 414 |
| Produces sensors and counter-drone munitions to mitigate drone threats. defense security, geopolitics | ||
| NOC | Northrop Grumman | 404 |
| Specializes in autonomous systems, drones, and space security. defense security, geopolitics, trade policy | ||
Weight is how prominently a company features across the document corpus, with the reason for its exposure underneath. These are the names that recur in policy and regulatory material, which is a different population from the tickers moving on today's news.
Regulatory enforcement surge drives demand for RegTech and government digital modernization
1. Increased aggressive enforcement against fraud and deceptive advertising raises the cost of non-compliance and increases legal risks for financial firms. 2. This creates a direct catalyst for the adoption of automated compliance, monitoring, and forensic tools (RegTech). 3. The simultaneous push for digital modernization in US/UK regulatory bodies necessitates large-scale procurement of cloud infrastructure, data
Better placed: RegTech providers, government IT consultancy, cloud infrastructure (GovCloud), forensic accounting services
More exposed: predatory lending/BNPL fintechs, high-frequency trading with opaque strategies, legacy financial institutions with poor data governance, aggressive digital marketing agencies for financial products
Named: PLTR, ACN, MSCI, AFRM
What would break this: A shift toward deregulation following election cycles or systemic failure/budget cuts in government digital transformation projects would invalidate this thesis.
Regulatory enforcement and liquidity controls increase operational costs for non-compliant banks
Central bank penalties for asset classification and operational failures directly impact bottom lines through fines and increased provisioning requirements. In India, the use of VRRR auctions to manage systemic liquidity can tighten the available capital for commercial banks, potentially squeezing net interest margins (NIMs). This environment creates a performance divergence between institutions with robust governanc
Better placed: RegTech software providers, compliance consulting services, tier-1 banks with high governance standards
More exposed: mid-tier commercial banks, non-compliant financial intermediaries, legacy banking infrastructure providers
Named: HDB, YESB, JPM, NICE
What would break this: A sudden shift toward deregulation or a pivot to aggressive monetary easing would reduce the pressure on bank liquidity and compliance costs.
RBI liquidity tightening and NBFC scrutiny pressure non-bank funding costs
The RBI's use of VRRR auctions to absorb excess liquidity reduces the overall pool of loanable funds in the banking system, which typically leads to higher borrowing costs for financial intermediaries. Since Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) rely heavily on bank borrowings and wholesale markets rather than deposits, they are more sensitive to these liquidity drains. Simultaneously, strict regulatory oversight r
Better placed: large systemic commercial banks, regulatory compliance technology providers, high-credit-rating NBFCs
More exposed: small to mid-sized NBFCs, high-leverage shadow banking entities, unsecured consumer credit lenders
Named: HDB, BAJFINANCE, SBIN, ICICI
What would break this: A significant increase in foreign portfolio investment (FPI) inflows could offset VRRR absorption, or a pivot by the RBI toward an accommodative stance to stimulate growth.
Geopolitical volatility and AI-driven drone warfare accelerate defense modernization spending
1. Intensifying regional conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East create immediate demand for munitions and hardware replenishment. 2. The shift toward 'attritable' systems (low-cost drones) reduces reliance on expensive manned platforms in high-risk zones. 3. Integration of visual AI into quadcopters necessitates advanced edge computing and sensor technology to enable autonomous targeting and surveillance. 4. Adopti
Better placed: unmanned aerial systems (UAS), defense AI software, precision munitions, edge computing hardware
More exposed: traditional manned aircraft platforms, commercial aviation/tourism in conflict-adjacent regions, legacy non-AI security hardware
Named: PLTR, AVAV, LMT, RTX, DAL
What would break this: A sudden diplomatic resolution to major conflicts or a global ban on autonomous lethal weapon systems (LAWS) would significantly reduce the growth trajectory of AI-integrated military hardware.
RBI liquidity tightening and rate harmonization to pressure banking funding costs
1. Active liquidity absorption via VRRR auctions reduces the surplus of loanable funds in the banking system. 2. This typically increases short-term borrowing costs for financial institutions, particularly those lacking strong retail deposit bases. 3. The shift toward a principles-based regulatory framework for interest rates aims to standardize pricing across regulated entities. 4. Together, these factors likely com
Better placed: banks with high CASA ratios, regulatory compliance technology providers, short-term government security holders
More exposed: wholesale-funding dependent NBFCs, lenders with inefficient pricing models, rate-sensitive corporate borrowers
Named: HDB, IBN, SBIN, AXIS
What would break this: A sudden pivot by the RBI toward liquidity injection or a failure to implement the principles-based framework would invalidate the pressure on margins.
Government capital and procurement shifts favor agile tech scale-ups and consultants
Direct capital investment reduces the cost of entry for innovative firms, while expanded procurement frameworks (e.g., G-Cloud) create predictable revenue streams from public contracts. Tailored regulatory guidance lowers operational friction for scale-ups, shifting competitive advantage toward companies capable of integrating modern technology into government infrastructure.
Better placed: government IT services, digital transformation consultancy, high-growth tech scale-ups, public sector software providers
More exposed: legacy non-digital incumbents, traditional procurement intermediaries, rigid corporate structures unable to pivot to agile frameworks
Named: PLTR, BAH, ACN, LDOS
What would break this: Fiscal austerity measures or political regime changes that revoke funding initiatives or increase bureaucratic red tape.
Geopolitical volatility shifts focus toward defense, supply chain resilience, and food security
1. Persistent regional conflicts increase national security budgets and demand for advanced weaponry. 2. Vulnerabilities in trade chokepoints force a transition from 'just-in-time' to 'just-in-case' logistics, favoring diversified shipping and nearshoring. 3. Severe hunger crises and health outbreaks drive investment into agricultural productivity and medical infrastructure. 4. The decline of multilateralism encourag
Better placed: defense and aerospace, cybersecurity, agricultural technology, strategic mineral mining
More exposed: global consumer discretionary, traditional just-in-time logistics, international tourism, multilateral trade consultancy
Named: LMT, DE, CRWD, MAERSK
What would break this: A sudden resurgence of multilateral diplomacy or comprehensive peace settlements in Ukraine and Gaza would diminish the premium on defense and resilience spending.
Financial infrastructure digitalization drives operational efficiency and expands market trading windows
1. Transitioning to electronic delivery and updated IPO processes reduces friction in capital formation, likely increasing the volume of listings and corporate actions. 2. The shift toward 24-hour trading necessitates a move from batch processing to real-time data streaming and automated risk management. 3. Modernizing corporate transfers lowers administrative overhead for issuers. 4. New captive insurance regimes cr
Better placed: financial technology (FinTech) providers, cloud computing infrastructure, electronic exchange operators, specialized insurance brokerage
More exposed: legacy manual processing services, traditional print-based financial administration, firms reliant on rigid T+2 settlement windows, traditional business-hours only brokerage models
Named: ICE, NDAQ, LSEG, BR, MSFT
What would break this: Regulatory reversal or failure to achieve cross-border synchronization in settlement standards could stall adoption; cybersecurity breaches in new electronic systems may trigger a return to conservative legacy protocols.
Readings drawn from the document corpus, not from price action. Each carries the case against it, because a view without a stated way to be wrong is not worth much. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell anything.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Markov Regime Engine | UP | 50% |
| Macro Factor Gate | UP | 55% |
Consensus: BULLISH
Weekly index projection: +0.69% (80% band -1.70% to +1.87%).
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 11.4% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 50% |
| Variance risk premium | +3.2 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.56% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.48% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.55% |
Premium in normal range — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.06 in-sample / 0.14 OOS, worst 0.06) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation | 0.84 | 1.3h | ELEVATED |
| Oil & Gas | 0.81 | 1.9h | ELEVATED |
| Artificial Intelligence | 0.79 | 0.6h | ELEVATED |
| M&A | 0.62 | 1.6h | SUBCRITICAL |
| FinTech | 0.60 | 1.0h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Stock Market | 0.58 | 2.6h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Cloud & Data Centers | 0.58 | 1.3h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Aerospace & Defense | 0.52 | 1.1h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 1,336 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 784 |
| Projected close of day | 1,486 |
| Daily average | 1,341 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 0.92× |
| Total in corpus | 159,554 |
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.