real time stock market sentiment dashboard
A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login, no sign-up.
Regime read: LONG · expected +2.79% ± 5.26% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.53 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Bull (81.5% posterior, +42.7%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.1304%/day and dominates. Net +0.1295%/day.
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RDDT | +7.7 | Communication Services | 17.1 | 1.15 | 28% | [DD] Why $RDDT goes to $1,000 the exact second their AI team figures out Post-Nut Clarityprofitable |
| UBER | +6.8 | Information Technology | 17.1 | 8.43 | 26% | Uber and Zipline partner on drone delivery for Uber EatsprofitableExpensive PEGY (>2) |
| BABA | +5.2 | Consumer Discretionary | 13.7 | 0.51 | 32% | Alibaba sells Lingxi Games to Trustar Capital for $1.5 billionprofitablePEGY < 0.75Fwd P/E < 15 |
| SNDK | +4.0 | Information Technology | 6.8 | — | 75% | SNDK gainsprofitableFwd P/E < 15 |
| BG | +3.3 | Consumer Staples | 10.1 | 1.20 | 66% | Bunge prices $600 million senior notes offering due 2031profitableFwd P/E < 15P/B < 1.5 |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
NO TRADE: every ranked play has a negative expected net gain after costs in the current regime. The table is a relative ordering, not a buy list.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KKR | LONG | 47.5% | -0.33 | -0.24 | -0.33 | High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum |
| 2 | CPRI | LONG | 39.7% | -0.33 | -0.24 | -0.33 | Despair reversion: sentiment -4 but undervalued; Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 3 | SNDK | LONG | 41.3% | -0.25 | -0.39 | -0.88 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 4.0); Accelerating velocity +4.4 (2 mentions/12h) |
| 4 | BG | LONG | 40.8% | -0.20 | -0.40 | -0.96 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 3.3); Valuation corroborated (PEGY/fwd-PE/EV checks); Accelerating velocity +4.0 (2 mentions/12h) |
| 5 | BABA | LONG | 41.4% | -0.21 | -0.45 | -1.30 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 5.2); Valuation corroborated (PEGY/fwd-PE/EV checks); ⚠ Earnings in 3d — event risk inside hold window |
| 6 | NBIS | LONG | 34.2% | -0.20 | -0.35 | -0.65 | Accelerating velocity +1.8 (2 mentions/12h) |
| 7 | RKLB | LONG | 31.8% | -0.20 | -0.35 | -0.65 | Accelerating velocity +4.6 (2 mentions/12h) |
| 8 | RDDT | LONG | 25.4% | -0.21 | -0.45 | -1.30 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 7.7); CIO meta-model current selection; Quality: F-score 7/9 |
Engine hit rate 44.2% over 292 scored calls (lower bound 38.6%), average net alpha -0.151%. Serving: incumbent.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
Teledyne Technologies' acquisition of Varex Imaging Corporation (VREX) at a 52% premium provides a strong bullish catalyst, but risk-adjusted conviction is-capped to avoid treating the nominal offer price as an absolute physical floor.
2026-08-16 01:20S&P 500 deletion triggers non-discretionary passive selling pressure that typically outweighs short-term fundamental value gaps until a liquidity bottom is found.
2026-08-15 11:12A 29% plunge following a revenue guidance cut for 2026 suggests a systemic growth failure rather than a temporary dip, signaling a fundamental erosion of trust in management's execution.
2026-08-15 03:37Cerebras Systems (CBRS) experienced a significant price plunge following earnings, signaling a market rejection of its valuation and a fundamental disconnect between AI hype and actual execution.
2026-08-13 12:40A tempered outlook due to underwhelming running-shoe sales in a high-multiple growth stock is a fundamental valuation reset catalyst rather than a temporary dip.
2026-08-13 00:13Safety concerns regarding Vykat in a biotech pipeline are fundamentally bearish catalysts as they increase regulatory risk and probability of clinical failure, outweighing speculative 'blood in the streets' buying opportunities.
2026-08-12 13:10A massive 17% jump following a blowout earnings beat suggests strong momentum and pricing power, but conviction is capped by the potential for 'sell the news' profit-taking and macro travel spending risks.
2026-08-10 10:50Nielsen's $2.15 billion takeover of DoubleVerify is a major bullish catalyst, but the stock will likely trade at a discount to the offer price due to deal risk and the correctness of the pre-announcement run-up.
2026-08-08 12:21The announcement of a cash buyout to take the company private is a primary catalyst for price convergence toward the offer price, though conviction is tempered by the M&A arbitrage spread and potential 'sell the news' dynamics.
2026-08-08 11:40Datadog's 19% plunge as a leader of the software sector slide suggests systemic risk and valuation reset rather than a temporary dip, signaling a high probability of continued downward pressure.
2026-08-08 05:11Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
| Ticker | Velocity | Vol | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPCX | +6.2 | 2 | SpaceX Stock Tests Resistance, Attempts To Retake Debut Price |
| RKLB | +4.6 | 2 | Should You Buy Rocket Lab Stock While It's Under $90? |
| SNDK | +4.4 | 2 | SNDK gains |
| BG | +4.0 | 2 | Bunge prices $600 million senior notes offering due 2031 |
| NBIS | +1.8 | 2 | Nebius ($NBIS): The Catalyst Set to Explode Tonight at 18:00 ET |
Change in scored coverage over the last 12 hours versus the prior 12.
| SNAP | -6.6 | Snap Drops 3% After Ninth Circuit Strips Away Its Immunity Shield, Reddit Eases |
| CPRI | -2.7 | Capri Holdings stock hits 52-week low at 14.77 USD |
| ONDS | -2.5 | Red Cat Slides 4% on Maritime Autonomy Deal, Ondas Holdings Pulls Back |
| INSP | -2.1 | Earnings call transcript: InspireMD Q2 2026 revenue miss weighs on shares |
| MXL | -2.1 | MaxLinear Stock Sells At A Price Its Trailing Year Cannot Explain |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Information Technology | +94 | +728 | +1,333 | |
| Financials | +85 | +619 | +2,395 | |
| Energy | +88 | +183 | +1,721 | |
| Materials | +24 | +8 | +187 | |
| Communication Services | -25 | -62 | -295 | |
| Health Care | -2 | -86 | -178 | |
| Industrials | -35 | -178 | -534 | |
| Utilities | -31 | -215 | -875 | |
| Consumer Staples | -39 | -264 | -701 | |
| Consumer Discretionary | -107 | -319 | -1,379 | |
| Real Estate | -51 | -414 | -1,678 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monetary Policy | +24.3 | +19 | |
| Biotechnology | +15.5 | +25 | |
| Emerging Markets | +14.7 | +17 | |
| US Economy | +13.2 | -1 | |
| Stagflation | -24.0 | -24 | |
| Consumer Sentiment | -28.5 | -30 | |
| Inflation | -29.8 | -28 | |
| Artificial Intelligence | -36.2 | +250 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Theme | Sources | Conviction | |
|---|---|---|---|
| financial regulation | 144 | 82 | |
| defense security | 124 | 75 | |
| banking | 121 | 74 | |
| transport mobility | 117 | 65 | |
| geopolitics | 111 | 75 | |
| healthcare policy | 109 | 62 | |
| monetary policy | 99 | 74 | |
| agriculture food | 84 | 74 | |
| education skills | 72 | 45 | |
| capital markets | 60 | 59 |
A slower reading than the panels above. Sources counts the documents behind a theme; conviction weighs how many independent sources agree, how recent they are and how strong the signal is. Moves over weeks, not hours.
| Ticker | Company | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| LMT | Lockheed Martin | 1,016 |
| Major defense contractor supplying military hardware for ongoing conflicts defense security, financial regulation, geopolitics, trade policy | ||
| BLK | BlackRock | 998 |
| Its Aladdin platform is a primary tool for institutional risk management amid monetary policy shifts. banking, financial regulation, geopolitics, monetary policy | ||
| PLTR | Palantir Technologies | 746 |
| Data analytics firm supplying government security platforms for border monitoring defense security, financial regulation, geopolitics, industrial policy | ||
| MSCI | MSCI Inc | 615 |
| Provides critical data and transparency tools that help firms meet evolving regulatory reporting standards. banking, financial regulation | ||
| JPM | JPMorgan Chase & Co | 595 |
| Likely beneficiary of capital flight from unregulated fintech toward regulated banking. banking, financial regulation, monetary policy | ||
| ICE | Intercontinental Exchange | 478 |
| Operates global exchanges and clearing houses benefiting from modernized market plumbing. capital markets, financial regulation, monetary policy | ||
| MUFG | Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group | 442 |
| Large Japanese bank exposed to Bank of Japan monetary base and liquidity operations. banking, financial regulation, monetary policy | ||
| SPGI | S&P Global | 414 |
| Offers credit ratings and data analytics essential for banks meeting central bank stability requirements. banking, financial regulation | ||
| NOC | Northrop Grumman | 404 |
| Specializes in autonomous systems, drones, and space security. defense security, geopolitics, trade policy | ||
| HDB | HDFC Bank | 383 |
| Major systemic lender that manages liquidity via RBI auctions and provides funding to NBFCs. banking, financial regulation, monetary policy | ||
Weight is how prominently a company features across the document corpus, with the reason for its exposure underneath. These are the names that recur in policy and regulatory material, which is a different population from the tickers moving on today's news.
Defense and security spending surge amid global conflicts
Escalating conflicts (Ukraine, Gaza, Yemen) directly increase demand for military hardware, surveillance systems, and border security infrastructure. Tightened border controls (e.g., UK asylum removals) accelerate investment in AI monitoring, fencing, and cybersecurity. Travel/tourism sectors face reduced mobility due to conflict zones and stricter entry requirements, pressuring airlines and hospitality.
Better placed: defense contractors, border security infrastructure, cybersecurity services
More exposed: travel and tourism, hospitality industry
Named: LMT, RTX, PLTR, AAL
What would break this: Rapid de-escalation of conflicts or global recession reducing defense budgets would undermine the thesis.
Regulatory enforcement surge drives demand for RegTech and government digital modernization
1. Increased aggressive enforcement against fraud and deceptive advertising raises the cost of non-compliance and increases legal risks for financial firms. 2. This creates a direct catalyst for the adoption of automated compliance, monitoring, and forensic tools (RegTech). 3. The simultaneous push for digital modernization in US/UK regulatory bodies necessitates large-scale procurement of cloud infrastructure, data
Better placed: RegTech providers, government IT consultancy, cloud infrastructure (GovCloud), forensic accounting services
More exposed: predatory lending/BNPL fintechs, high-frequency trading with opaque strategies, legacy financial institutions with poor data governance, aggressive digital marketing agencies for financial products
Named: PLTR, ACN, MSCI, AFRM
What would break this: A shift toward deregulation following election cycles or systemic failure/budget cuts in government digital transformation projects would invalidate this thesis.
RBI liquidity tightening and NBFC scrutiny pressure non-bank funding costs
The RBI's use of VRRR auctions to absorb excess liquidity reduces the overall pool of loanable funds in the banking system, which typically leads to higher borrowing costs for financial intermediaries. Since Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) rely heavily on bank borrowings and wholesale markets rather than deposits, they are more sensitive to these liquidity drains. Simultaneously, strict regulatory oversight r
Better placed: large systemic commercial banks, regulatory compliance technology providers, high-credit-rating NBFCs
More exposed: small to mid-sized NBFCs, high-leverage shadow banking entities, unsecured consumer credit lenders
Named: HDB, BAJFINANCE, SBIN, ICICI
What would break this: A significant increase in foreign portfolio investment (FPI) inflows could offset VRRR absorption, or a pivot by the RBI toward an accommodative stance to stimulate growth.
RBI tightening lifts bank margins, pressures real estate and auto
RBI's net liquidity absorption of ₹2.25 lakh crore via Variable Rate Reverse Repo (5.24%) signals tighter monetary policy, raising short-term rates (overnight avg 5.09%). Higher interest rates typically widen banks' net interest margins as lending rates adjust faster than deposit costs, benefiting banking sector. Conversely, credit-dependent sectors like real estate and automotive face higher borrowing costs, reducin
Better placed: banking, financial services
More exposed: real estate development, automotive manufacturing
Named: HDFCBANK.NS, ICICIBANK.NS, DLF.NS, MARUTI.NS
What would break this: If RBI's liquidity absorption is temporary (e.g., seasonal), or if inflation falls rapidly without economic slowdown, sectoral impacts may be muted with limited bank margin gains and minimal real estate pressure.
Government capital and procurement shifts favor agile tech scale-ups and consultants
Direct capital investment reduces the cost of entry for innovative firms, while expanded procurement frameworks (e.g., G-Cloud) create predictable revenue streams from public contracts. Tailored regulatory guidance lowers operational friction for scale-ups, shifting competitive advantage toward companies capable of integrating modern technology into government infrastructure.
Better placed: government IT services, digital transformation consultancy, high-growth tech scale-ups, public sector software providers
More exposed: legacy non-digital incumbents, traditional procurement intermediaries, rigid corporate structures unable to pivot to agile frameworks
Named: PLTR, BAH, ACN, LDOS
What would break this: Fiscal austerity measures or political regime changes that revoke funding initiatives or increase bureaucratic red tape.
Geopolitical volatility shifts focus toward defense, supply chain resilience, and food security
1. Persistent regional conflicts increase national security budgets and demand for advanced weaponry. 2. Vulnerabilities in trade chokepoints force a transition from 'just-in-time' to 'just-in-case' logistics, favoring diversified shipping and nearshoring. 3. Severe hunger crises and health outbreaks drive investment into agricultural productivity and medical infrastructure. 4. The decline of multilateralism encourag
Better placed: defense and aerospace, cybersecurity, agricultural technology, strategic mineral mining
More exposed: global consumer discretionary, traditional just-in-time logistics, international tourism, multilateral trade consultancy
Named: LMT, DE, CRWD, MAERSK
What would break this: A sudden resurgence of multilateral diplomacy or comprehensive peace settlements in Ukraine and Gaza would diminish the premium on defense and resilience spending.
Financial infrastructure digitalization drives operational efficiency and expands market trading windows
1. Transitioning to electronic delivery and updated IPO processes reduces friction in capital formation, likely increasing the volume of listings and corporate actions. 2. The shift toward 24-hour trading necessitates a move from batch processing to real-time data streaming and automated risk management. 3. Modernizing corporate transfers lowers administrative overhead for issuers. 4. New captive insurance regimes cr
Better placed: financial technology (FinTech) providers, cloud computing infrastructure, electronic exchange operators, specialized insurance brokerage
More exposed: legacy manual processing services, traditional print-based financial administration, firms reliant on rigid T+2 settlement windows, traditional business-hours only brokerage models
Named: ICE, NDAQ, LSEG, BR, MSFT
What would break this: Regulatory reversal or failure to achieve cross-border synchronization in settlement standards could stall adoption; cybersecurity breaches in new electronic systems may trigger a return to conservative legacy protocols.
Regulatory tightening and monetary stability efforts increase banking compliance costs
Increased Federal Reserve enforcement actions necessitate higher spending on internal controls and legal remediation for financial institutions. Simultaneously, the focus of US and UK central banks on rate management and governance creates a volatile environment for net interest margins while demanding stricter risk oversight. This combination shifts value toward providers of regulatory infrastructure and away from b
Better placed: RegTech software, compliance consulting services, risk management platforms, legal and audit firms
More exposed: mid-sized commercial banking, high-leverage financial intermediaries, legacy banking operations with weak governance
Named: MSCI, SPGI, ACN, BLK
What would break this: A significant shift toward deregulation in the US administration or an unexpected failure of central banks to stabilize rates would invalidate the thesis.
Readings drawn from the document corpus, not from price action. Each carries the case against it, because a view without a stated way to be wrong is not worth much. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell anything.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Markov Regime Engine | UP | 50% |
| Macro Factor Gate | UP | 55% |
Consensus: BULLISH
Weekly index projection: +0.67% (80% band -2.30% to +2.62%).
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 11.4% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 50% |
| Variance risk premium | +3.2 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.56% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.48% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.55% |
Premium in normal range — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.06 in-sample / 0.14 OOS, worst 0.06) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation | 0.85 | 1.4h | ELEVATED |
| Oil & Gas | 0.81 | 1.8h | ELEVATED |
| FinTech | 0.61 | 0.9h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Cloud & Data Centers | 0.59 | 1.2h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Stock Market | 0.57 | 2.1h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Crypto & Digital Assets | 0.56 | 0.9h | SUBCRITICAL |
| M&A | 0.56 | 1.2h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Aerospace & Defense | 0.54 | 1.3h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 31 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 1,423 |
| Projected close of day | 569 |
| Daily average | 1,342 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 1.04× |
| Total in corpus | 159,672 |
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.