real time stock market sentiment dashboard
A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login, no sign-up.
Regime read: LONG · expected +2.86% ± 5.23% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.55 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Bull (85.5% posterior, +43.2%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.1378%/day and dominates. Net +0.1369%/day.
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBER | +5.2 | Information Technology | 17.1 | 8.43 | 26% | Uber Eats partners with Zipline for US drone deliveriesprofitableExpensive PEGY (>2) |
| AS | +4.9 | Consumer Discretionary | 20.8 | 0.73 | 26% | Amer Sports Aims Higher After Firm Beats Q2 Forecast, Raises OutlookprofitablePEGY < 0.75 |
| RDDT | +4.7 | Communication Services | 17.1 | 1.06 | 28% | Reddit Fell Almost 30% This Year: 80% Gains Are In Store According to Wall Street Prosprofitable |
| KKR | +4.2 | Financials | 14.7 | 0.58 | 38% | Brand Legacy Positions KKR (KKR) for Lasting AdvantageconvictionprofitablePEGY < 0.75Fwd P/E < 15 |
| TTMI | +3.7 | Information Technology | 20.5 | 0.36 | 55% | TTM Technologies Buys Epiq Solutions for $1.1B to Boost Defense RF CapabilitiesconvictionprofitablePEGY < 0.75 |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
NO TRADE: every ranked play has a negative expected net gain after costs in the current regime. The table is a relative ordering, not a buy list.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TTMI | LONG | 31.2% | -0.24 | -0.35 | -0.80 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 3.7); Valuation corroborated (PEGY/fwd-PE/EV checks); High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum; Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 2 | KKR | LONG | 33.1% | -0.24 | -0.35 | -0.80 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 4.2); Valuation corroborated (PEGY/fwd-PE/EV checks); High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum |
| 3 | WEN | LONG | 31.9% | -0.20 | -0.35 | -0.65 | Accelerating velocity +0.2 (2 mentions/12h) |
| 4 | RDDT | LONG | 28.3% | -0.21 | -0.45 | -1.30 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 4.7); CIO meta-model current selection; Quality: F-score 7/9 |
| 5 | AS | LONG | 24.3% | -0.20 | -0.40 | -0.96 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 4.9); Accelerating velocity +6.0 (2 mentions/12h); Quality: F-score 8/9; ⚠ Earnings in 0d — event risk inside hold window |
| 6 | UBER | LONG | 31.3% | -0.21 | -0.45 | -1.30 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 5.2); ⚠ Expensive PEGY (>2) |
Engine hit rate 43.9% over 294 scored calls (lower bound 38.3%), average net alpha -0.168%. Serving: challenger.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
Teledyne Technologies' acquisition of Varex Imaging Corporation (VREX) at a 52% premium provides a strong bullish catalyst, but risk-adjusted conviction is-capped to avoid treating the nominal offer price as an absolute physical floor.
2026-08-16 01:20S&P 500 deletion triggers non-discretionary passive selling pressure that typically outweighs short-term fundamental value gaps until a liquidity bottom is found.
2026-08-15 11:12A 29% plunge following a revenue guidance cut for 2026 suggests a systemic growth failure rather than a temporary dip, signaling a fundamental erosion of trust in management's execution.
2026-08-15 03:37Cerebras Systems (CBRS) experienced a significant price plunge following earnings, signaling a market rejection of its valuation and a fundamental disconnect between AI hype and actual execution.
2026-08-13 12:40A tempered outlook due to underwhelming running-shoe sales in a high-multiple growth stock is a fundamental valuation reset catalyst rather than a temporary dip.
2026-08-13 00:13Safety concerns regarding Vykat in a biotech pipeline are fundamentally bearish catalysts as they increase regulatory risk and probability of clinical failure, outweighing speculative 'blood in the streets' buying opportunities.
2026-08-12 13:10A massive 17% jump following a blowout earnings beat suggests strong momentum and pricing power, but conviction is capped by the potential for 'sell the news' profit-taking and macro travel spending risks.
2026-08-10 10:50Nielsen's $2.15 billion takeover of DoubleVerify is a major bullish catalyst, but the stock will likely trade at a discount to the offer price due to deal risk and the correctness of the pre-announcement run-up.
2026-08-08 12:21The announcement of a cash buyout to take the company private is a primary catalyst for price convergence toward the offer price, though conviction is tempered by the M&A arbitrage spread and potential 'sell the news' dynamics.
2026-08-08 11:40Datadog's 19% plunge as a leader of the software sector slide suggests systemic risk and valuation reset rather than a temporary dip, signaling a high probability of continued downward pressure.
2026-08-08 05:11Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
| Ticker | Velocity | Vol | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| AS | +6.0 | 2 | Amer Sports Aims Higher After Firm Beats Q2 Forecast, Raises Outlook |
| WEN | +0.2 | 2 | Wendy’s (WEN) New Leadership Confronts A Steep Turnaround |
Change in scored coverage over the last 12 hours versus the prior 12.
| SNAP | -4.5 | Snap Drops 3% After Ninth Circuit Strips Away Its Immunity Shield, Reddit Eases |
| FN | -2.8 | S&P 500 Futures Decline in Premarket Trading; Bio-Rad Labs A, Fabrinet Lag |
| KHC | -2.4 | Kraft Heinz Faces a $7.4 Billion Impairment Charge. Is the 6.2% Yielding Stock a Value Trap or a No-Brainer Buy in August? |
| WU | -2.1 | Western Union’s High Yield is Raising Dividend Cut Concerns |
| AMR | -2.0 | Alpha Metallurgical (AMR) Weathers A Rough Quarter On Multiple Fronts |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Information Technology | +61 | +694 | +1,326 | |
| Financials | +14 | +578 | +2,374 | |
| Energybreakout | +157 | +204 | +1,782 | |
| Materials | +12 | +4 | +192 | |
| Communication Services | -26 | -66 | -312 | |
| Health Carebullish reversal | +5 | -68 | -171 | |
| Industrials | -43 | -202 | -548 | |
| Utilities | -27 | -212 | -875 | |
| Consumer Staples | -24 | -254 | -695 | |
| Consumer Discretionary | -64 | -300 | -1,376 | |
| Real Estate | -63 | -376 | -1,701 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| US Economy | +15.5 | +1 | |
| Corporate Earnings | +12.0 | +15 | |
| Market Volatility | +11.8 | -5 | |
| Drone Delivery | +9.0 | +9 | |
| Stock Market | -26.2 | -11 | |
| Artificial Intelligence | -36.7 | +244 | |
| Inflation | -47.8 | -44 | |
| Interest Rates | -114.0 | -131 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Markov Regime Engine | UP | 50% |
| Macro Factor Gate | UP | 55% |
Consensus: BULLISH
Weekly index projection: +0.67% (80% band -2.21% to +2.57%).
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 11.4% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 50% |
| Variance risk premium | +3.8 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.56% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.50% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.58% |
Premium in normal range — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.06 in-sample / 0.14 OOS, worst 0.06) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation | 0.84 | 1.5h | ELEVATED |
| Oil & Gas | 0.74 | 1.2h | ELEVATED |
| FinTech | 0.57 | 0.9h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Cloud & Data Centers | 0.56 | 1.1h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Semiconductors | 0.52 | 1.3h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Stock Market | 0.50 | 2.2h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Crypto & Digital Assets | 0.48 | 0.8h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Biotechnology | 0.48 | 1.0h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 429 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 1,423 |
| Projected close of day | 923 |
| Daily average | 1,345 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 0.89× |
| Total in corpus | 160,070 |
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.