real time stock market sentiment dashboard
A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login, no sign-up.
Regime read: LONG · expected +2.65% ± 5.36% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.49 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Bull (70.5% posterior, +42.1%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.1134%/day and dominates. Net +0.1118%/day.
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SNDK | +3.3 | Information Technology | 6.2 | — | 68% | S&P 500's Best Stock In 2026 Leads Index With A Bullish MoveprofitableFwd P/E < 15 |
| UBER | +2.9 | Information Technology | 17.0 | 8.43 | 25% | Uber Technologies’ (Uber) Operating Strength Outpaces Market ValuationprofitableExpensive PEGY (>2) |
| BABA | +2.6 | Consumer Discretionary | 14.1 | 0.51 | 36% | Alibaba Stock Gains as It Adds to Its War Chest for AI RaceprofitablePEGY < 0.75Fwd P/E < 15 |
| VIST | +2.3 | Energy | 6.6 | — | 77% | VIST Stock Jumps as Peter Thiel Reveals Stake in Vista EnergyconvictionprofitableFwd P/E < 15EV/EBITDA < 10 |
| RDDT | +1.8 | Communication Services | 16.4 | 1.06 | 24% | Reddit Fell Almost 30% This Year: 80% Gains Are In Store According to Wall Street Prosprofitable |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
NO TRADE: every ranked play has a negative expected net gain after costs in the current regime. The table is a relative ordering, not a buy list.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TTMI | LONG | 56.4% | -0.38 | -0.33 | -0.19 | High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum; Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 2 | AS | LONG | 41.6% | — | — | — | CIO meta-model current selection; Quality: F-score 8/9; ⚠ Earnings in 0d — event risk inside hold window |
| 3 | SNDK | LONG | 52.7% | -0.22 | -0.47 | -1.23 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 3.3); Quality: F-score 7/9 |
| 4 | KKR | LONG | 56.4% | -0.38 | -0.33 | -0.19 | High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum |
| 5 | VIST | LONG | 51.7% | -0.30 | -0.40 | -0.71 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 2.3); Valuation corroborated (PEGY/fwd-PE/EV checks); High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum |
| 6 | RDDT | LONG | 45.8% | -0.22 | -0.47 | -1.23 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 1.8); Quality: F-score 7/9 |
| 7 | BABA | LONG | 45.9% | -0.22 | -0.47 | -1.23 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 2.7); Valuation corroborated (PEGY/fwd-PE/EV checks); ⚠ Earnings in 1d — event risk inside hold window |
| 8 | UBER | LONG | 48.2% | -0.22 | -0.47 | -1.23 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 2.9); ⚠ Expensive PEGY (>2) |
Engine hit rate 44.0% over 302 scored calls (lower bound 38.6%), average net alpha -0.161%. Serving: incumbent.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
Teledyne Technologies' acquisition of Varex Imaging Corporation (VREX) at a 52% premium provides a strong bullish catalyst, but risk-adjusted conviction is-capped to avoid treating the nominal offer price as an absolute physical floor.
2026-08-16 01:20S&P 500 deletion triggers non-discretionary passive selling pressure that typically outweighs short-term fundamental value gaps until a liquidity bottom is found.
2026-08-15 11:12A 29% plunge following a revenue guidance cut for 2026 suggests a systemic growth failure rather than a temporary dip, signaling a fundamental erosion of trust in management's execution.
2026-08-15 03:37Cerebras Systems (CBRS) experienced a significant price plunge following earnings, signaling a market rejection of its valuation and a fundamental disconnect between AI hype and actual execution.
2026-08-13 12:40A tempered outlook due to underwhelming running-shoe sales in a high-multiple growth stock is a fundamental valuation reset catalyst rather than a temporary dip.
2026-08-13 00:13Safety concerns regarding Vykat in a biotech pipeline are fundamentally bearish catalysts as they increase regulatory risk and probability of clinical failure, outweighing speculative 'blood in the streets' buying opportunities.
2026-08-12 13:10A massive 17% jump following a blowout earnings beat suggests strong momentum and pricing power, but conviction is capped by the potential for 'sell the news' profit-taking and macro travel spending risks.
2026-08-10 10:50Nielsen's $2.15 billion takeover of DoubleVerify is a major bullish catalyst, but the stock will likely trade at a discount to the offer price due to deal risk and the correctness of the pre-announcement run-up.
2026-08-08 12:21The announcement of a cash buyout to take the company private is a primary catalyst for price convergence toward the offer price, though conviction is tempered by the M&A arbitrage spread and potential 'sell the news' dynamics.
2026-08-08 11:40Datadog's 19% plunge as a leader of the software sector slide suggests systemic risk and valuation reset rather than a temporary dip, signaling a high probability of continued downward pressure.
2026-08-08 05:11Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
No data in this window.
| PTON | -2.0 | Should Investors Buy Peloton Stock After Its 96% Plunge? Here's the Good News and the Bad News. |
| SNAP | -1.4 | Snap Drops 3% After Ninth Circuit Strips Away Its Immunity Shield, Reddit Eases |
| KLAR | -1.2 | Klarna Stock Plunges On Weak Guidance. Rival Affirm's Shares Fall. |
| KHC | -1.0 | Kraft Heinz Faces a $7.4 Billion Impairment Charge. Is the 6.2% Yielding Stock a Value Trap or a No-Brainer Buy in August? |
| PLNT | -0.9 | Could Planet Fitness (PLNT) Rebound Despite Slower Member Growth? |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Information Technologybearish reversal | -10 | +597 | +1,307 | |
| Financials | +13 | +468 | +2,377 | |
| Energy | +43 | +89 | +1,630 | |
| Materials | +12 | -13 | +187 | |
| Communication Servicesbullish reversal | +4 | -40 | -310 | |
| Health Carebullish reversal | +8 | -54 | -161 | |
| Industrials | -6 | -151 | -524 | |
| Utilities | -13 | -158 | -856 | |
| Consumer Staplesbullish reversal | +11 | -201 | -658 | |
| Consumer Discretionary | -19 | -217 | -1,314 | |
| Real Estate | -42 | -318 | -1,679 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Geopolitical Tension | +12.3 | -13 | |
| Market Volatility | +10.7 | -2 | |
| Retail Sales | +7.2 | +4 | |
| Climate Change | +5.5 | -2 | |
| Inflation | -26.0 | -12 | |
| Stock Market | -33.3 | -20 | |
| Interest Rates | -62.7 | -89 | |
| Artificial Intelligence | -254.5 | +19 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Theme | Sources | Conviction | |
|---|---|---|---|
| financial regulation | 153 | 75 | |
| defense security | 131 | 82 | |
| transport mobility | 126 | 64 | |
| banking | 121 | 73 | |
| healthcare policy | 120 | 68 | |
| geopolitics | 117 | 74 | |
| monetary policy | 104 | 86 | |
| agriculture food | 101 | 73 | |
| education skills | 76 | 44 | |
| energy policy | 64 | 50 |
A slower reading than the panels above. Sources counts the documents behind a theme; conviction weighs how many independent sources agree, how recent they are and how strong the signal is. Moves over weeks, not hours.
| Ticker | Company | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| BLK | BlackRock | 1,052 |
| Manages ESG-focused funds aligned with mandatory climate risk disclosure frameworks. banking, financial regulation, geopolitics, monetary policy | ||
| LMT | Lockheed Martin | 867 |
| Primary producer of military aircraft and missile systems with expanding global contracts defense security, financial regulation, geopolitics | ||
| JPM | JPMorgan Chase & Co | 646 |
| Major commercial bank benefiting from rising interest rates and normalized monetary policy banking, financial regulation, monetary policy | ||
| MSCI | MSCI Inc | 595 |
| Provides ESG ratings and climate risk analytics demanded by regulators for portfolio compliance. banking, financial regulation | ||
| PLTR | Palantir Technologies | 564 |
| Provides data analytics and AI platforms heavily utilized in US and UK government procurement. defense security, financial regulation, geopolitics, industrial policy | ||
| HDFCBANK.NS | HDFC Bank | 521 |
| Major private bank with stable net interest margins in neutral rate environment banking, financial regulation, monetary policy | ||
| MUFG | Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group | 498 |
| Large Japanese bank exposed to Bank of Japan monetary base and liquidity operations. banking, financial regulation, monetary policy | ||
| ICE | Intercontinental Exchange | 472 |
| Operates global exchanges and clearing houses benefiting from modernized market plumbing. capital markets, financial regulation, monetary policy | ||
| SPGI | S&P Global | 470 |
| Offers credit ratings and data analytics essential for banks meeting central bank stability requirements. banking, financial regulation | ||
| HSBA | HSBC Holdings | 358 |
| Faces significant capital expenditure to modernize legacy back-office systems to meet new regulatory and speed standards. banking, financial regulation, monetary policy | ||
Weight is how prominently a company features across the document corpus, with the reason for its exposure underneath. These are the names that recur in policy and regulatory material, which is a different population from the tickers moving on today's news.
Stricter ESG/governance rules boost compliance firms, pressure opaque operators
Regulatory actions (FTC settlements, UK governance enforcement, Japan's ESG bonds) demonstrate global alignment on mandatory transparency and climate risk integration. This directly benefits sectors providing regulatory compliance solutions and sustainable finance infrastructure while pressuring entities reliant on deceptive practices or inadequate climate disclosures. Demand for verifiable ESG data and governance to
Better placed: ESG data & analytics providers, Sustainable finance infrastructure (e.g., green bond platforms), Corporate governance technology
More exposed: Consumer-facing firms with opaque fee structures, Fossil fuel-heavy E&P operators lacking climate transition plans, Traditional asset managers resisting ESG integration
Named: MSCI, MSFT, BLK, DUK
What would break this: Regulatory rollbacks in key jurisdictions, industry lobbying success reducing enforcement scope, or rapid adoption of AI-driven compliance tools bypassing human oversight.
Stable rates stabilize banking and consumer sectors
RBI maintains repo rate at 5.25% until Aug 2026 with neutral stance, confirmed by MPC decisions and net liquidity absorption via LAF tools. This eliminates unexpected rate changes, reducing volatility for interest-sensitive sectors. Banking benefits from predictable net interest margins without funding cost shocks. Consumer staples see steady demand as they are less sensitive to rates. Real estate development faces p
Better placed: Banking, Consumer staples
More exposed: Real estate development, Infrastructure project finance
Named: HDFCBANK.NS, HINDUNILVR.N, DLF.NS
What would break this: Unexpected inflation surge forcing RBI to hike rates or economic downturn triggering emergency rate cut before Aug 2026
Domestic manufacturing gains as global supply chains fragment
Protectionist policies like US tariffs and reshoring incentives reduce reliance on imports, boosting domestic production. EU's erosion of open trade increases barriers for export-dependent sectors while prioritizing local supply chains. This shifts capital toward domestically oriented infrastructure and manufacturing, pressuring multinational supply chain models.
Better placed: domestic manufacturing, supply chain localization, renewable energy infrastructure
More exposed: global supply chains, commodity exporters, multinational services
Named: CAT, INTC, BA, DE
What would break this: WTO challenges to tariffs, rapid inflation from import costs reducing policy support, or unexpected multilateral trade agreements reversing protectionism.
FDA device reclassification accelerates medtech market entry
The FDA's shift of devices from Class III (high-risk) to Class II/I (lower-risk) reduces premarket approval requirements. This lowers development costs and time-to-market for affected products, directly benefiting innovation in digital health and diagnostics. Regulatory burden reduction encourages new entrants and faster adoption of healthcare technologies without compromising safety via special controls.
Better placed: Digital health platforms, Point-of-care diagnostics, Wearable health monitors
More exposed: Regulatory consulting (Class III)
Named: MDT, ABT, DXCM, SYK
What would break this: Safety incidents linked to reduced oversight or reversal of FDA's reclassification policy would undermine the trend.
US domestic manufacturing gains from tariff-driven reshoring
Protectionist policies (tariffs on imports, reshoring incentives) increase cost of foreign goods relative to domestic alternatives. This directly boosts demand for US-made products in sectors like consumer durables and industrial equipment. Conversely, export-dependent supply chains face higher costs due to retaliatory tariffs and reduced global trade flows.
Better placed: domestic manufacturing, reshoring services, tariff-protected consumer goods
More exposed: export-oriented manufacturing, global supply chain logistics
Named: WHR, CAT, FLEX, PVH
What would break this: Policy reversal due to economic downturn or new multilateral trade agreements overriding protectionism.
RBI liquidity tightening and NBFC scrutiny pressure non-bank funding costs
The RBI's use of VRRR auctions to absorb excess liquidity reduces the overall pool of loanable funds in the banking system, which typically leads to higher borrowing costs for financial intermediaries. Since Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) rely heavily on bank borrowings and wholesale markets rather than deposits, they are more sensitive to these liquidity drains. Simultaneously, strict regulatory oversight r
Better placed: large systemic commercial banks, regulatory compliance technology providers, high-credit-rating NBFCs
More exposed: small to mid-sized NBFCs, high-leverage shadow banking entities, unsecured consumer credit lenders
Named: HDB, BAJFINANCE, SBIN, ICICI
What would break this: A significant increase in foreign portfolio investment (FPI) inflows could offset VRRR absorption, or a pivot by the RBI toward an accommodative stance to stimulate growth.
Defense contractors benefit from rising global military expenditure
Evidence shows EU economic analysis of defense spending growth and UK-Lebanon security deals indicating increased budgets. Disarmament in DRC (FDLR neutralization) requires active defense resources, not reduced spending. Yemen de-escalation efforts are complementary to broader security investments rather than budget cuts. Global trend remains upward despite localized disarmament protocols.
Better placed: defense contractors, military infrastructure development, cybersecurity for defense
Named: LMT, RTX, NOC
What would break this: Global disarmament treaties lead to significant budget reductions or a major economic crisis forces defense spending cuts.
Humanitarian logistics and health response firms gain amid conflict aid coordination
International bodies' improved coordination of aid delivery in active conflicts (e.g., UN reports on West Bank/Gaza access barriers, DRC Ebola using ex-combatants, Syria rebuilding) drives demand for specialized secure transport/logistics. Health crisis response benefits from coordinated local engagement (DRC example). Sectors enabling cross-border collaboration and community stabilization see increased opportunities
Better placed: humanitarian logistics, health crisis response technology, conflict zone security services
More exposed: oil and gas E&P in active conflict zones, traditional retail in volatile regions
Named: DPW.DE, ACM, KBR
What would break this: Political deadlock halting UN coordination or complete access blockades in key regions like Gaza/DRC
Readings drawn from the document corpus, not from price action. Each carries the case against it, because a view without a stated way to be wrong is not worth much. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell anything.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Markov Regime Engine | UP | 50% |
| Macro Factor Gate | UP | 55% |
Consensus: BULLISH
Weekly index projection: +0.92% (80% band -3.22% to +3.86%).
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 11.3% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 48% |
| Variance risk premium | +3.6 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.55% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.46% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.52% |
Premium in normal range — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.06 in-sample / 0.14 OOS, worst 0.06) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Artificial Intelligence | 0.86 | 0.5h | ELEVATED |
| Inflation | 0.84 | 1.3h | ELEVATED |
| Oil & Gas | 0.76 | 2.1h | ELEVATED |
| Aerospace & Defense | 0.62 | 1.3h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Crypto & Digital Assets | 0.61 | 0.9h | SUBCRITICAL |
| FinTech | 0.60 | 0.7h | SUBCRITICAL |
| M&A | 0.60 | 1.0h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Stock Market | 0.58 | 2.3h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 711 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 1,101 |
| Projected close of day | 1,574 |
| Daily average | 1,345 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 1.04× |
| Total in corpus | 161,453 |
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.