real time stock market sentiment dashboard
A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login, no sign-up.
Regime read: LONG · expected +2.56% ± 5.43% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.47 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Bull (61.2% posterior, +41.5%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.0990%/day and dominates. Net +0.0978%/day.
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MRNA | +4.3 | Health Care | -29.1 | — | 72% | Moderna Stock Explodes Over 100% After Cancer Vaccine BreakthroughFwd P/E < 15EV/EBITDA < 10Price > Analyst TargetUNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
| UBER | +2.9 | Information Technology | 17.9 | 8.66 | 36% | Tesla's Cybercab Launch Could Reshape Margins for Uber and LyftprofitableExpensive PEGY (>2) |
| PLTR | +2.7 | Information Technology | 75.2 | 2.35 | 67% | Palantir Is Growing Faster Than Almost Anyone Expected. Can the Stock Keep Up?profitableExtended FWD P/EExpensive PEGY (>2) |
| NBIS | +1.9 | Communication Services | -73.4 | — | 66% | Nebius proposes $4.5 billion convertible notes to fund AI cloud expansionFwd P/E < 15UNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
| SNDK | +1.9 | Information Technology | 6.0 | — | 67% | SNDK Gain. WSB styleprofitableFwd P/E < 15 |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
NO TRADE: every ranked play has a negative expected net gain after costs in the current regime. The table is a relative ordering, not a buy list.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SNDK | LONG | 43.1% | -0.24 | -0.51 | -1.23 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 1.9); Macro tailwind: falling dollar + falling yields; Quality: F-score 7/9 |
| 2 | TOST | LONG | 43.5% | -0.34 | -0.43 | -0.28 | High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum; CIO meta-model current selection; Macro tailwind: falling dollar + falling yields; Quality: F-score 7/9 |
| 3 | CHTR | LONG | 43.5% | -0.34 | -0.43 | -0.28 | High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum; Macro tailwind: falling dollar + falling yields; Quality: F-score 7/9 |
| 4 | MRNA | LONG | 43.5% | -0.25 | -0.46 | -0.75 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 4.3); Accelerating velocity +9.8 (6 mentions/12h); ⚠ Price > Analyst Target; UNPROFITABLE - elevated risk; Macro tailwind: falling dollar + falling yields |
| 5 | UBER | LONG | 43.1% | -0.24 | -0.51 | -1.23 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 2.9); ⚠ Expensive PEGY (>2); Macro tailwind: falling dollar + falling yields |
| 6 | JOBY | LONG | 43.5% | -0.34 | -0.43 | -0.28 | Despair reversion: sentiment -4 but undervalued; Macro tailwind: falling dollar + falling yields |
| 7 | ONDS | LONG | 43.5% | -0.34 | -0.43 | -0.28 | Despair reversion: sentiment -4 but undervalued; Macro tailwind: falling dollar + falling yields |
| 8 | WOLF | LONG | 43.5% | -0.34 | -0.43 | -0.28 | Despair reversion: sentiment -4 but undervalued; Macro tailwind: falling dollar + falling yields |
Engine hit rate 43.1% over 313 scored calls (lower bound 37.8%), average net alpha -0.224%. Serving: rules.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
Teledyne Technologies' acquisition of Varex Imaging Corporation (VREX) at a 52% premium provides a strong bullish catalyst, but risk-adjusted conviction is-capped to avoid treating the nominal offer price as an absolute physical floor.
2026-08-16 01:20S&P 500 deletion triggers non-discretionary passive selling pressure that typically outweighs short-term fundamental value gaps until a liquidity bottom is found.
2026-08-15 11:12A 29% plunge following a revenue guidance cut for 2026 suggests a systemic growth failure rather than a temporary dip, signaling a fundamental erosion of trust in management's execution.
2026-08-15 03:37Cerebras Systems (CBRS) experienced a significant price plunge following earnings, signaling a market rejection of its valuation and a fundamental disconnect between AI hype and actual execution.
2026-08-13 12:40A tempered outlook due to underwhelming running-shoe sales in a high-multiple growth stock is a fundamental valuation reset catalyst rather than a temporary dip.
2026-08-13 00:13Safety concerns regarding Vykat in a biotech pipeline are fundamentally bearish catalysts as they increase regulatory risk and probability of clinical failure, outweighing speculative 'blood in the streets' buying opportunities.
2026-08-12 13:10A massive 17% jump following a blowout earnings beat suggests strong momentum and pricing power, but conviction is capped by the potential for 'sell the news' profit-taking and macro travel spending risks.
2026-08-10 10:50Nielsen's $2.15 billion takeover of DoubleVerify is a major bullish catalyst, but the stock will likely trade at a discount to the offer price due to deal risk and the correctness of the pre-announcement run-up.
2026-08-08 12:21The announcement of a cash buyout to take the company private is a primary catalyst for price convergence toward the offer price, though conviction is tempered by the M&A arbitrage spread and potential 'sell the news' dynamics.
2026-08-08 11:40Datadog's 19% plunge as a leader of the software sector slide suggests systemic risk and valuation reset rather than a temporary dip, signaling a high probability of continued downward pressure.
2026-08-08 05:11Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
| Ticker | Velocity | Vol | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| MRNA | +9.8 | 6 | Moderna Stock Explodes Over 100% After Cancer Vaccine Breakthrough |
Change in scored coverage over the last 12 hours versus the prior 12.
| WOLF | -2.7 | Wolfspeed Sinks 12% on Wider-Than-Expected Loss, ON Semiconductor Slips as Chip Sector Holds Steady |
| ZIM | -1.9 | ZIM Shares Fall Despite Strong Second-Quarter Earnings Beat |
| ONDS | -1.9 | Ondas Drops 7%, Unusual Machines Sinks 8%, Kratos Falls 5% as the Drone Trade Unwinds |
| JOBY | -1.8 | Archer Aviation Drops 7%, EHang Sinks 6%, Joby Aviation Falls 4% as Air Taxi Stocks Ignore Good News |
| NCLH | -1.5 | Norwegian Cruise Line Drops 5%, Carnival Falls 4%, Royal Caribbean Slips 3% as Oil Climbs |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Information Technology | +18 | +360 | +1,173 | |
| Financialsbearish reversal | -3 | +272 | +2,215 | |
| Energy | +50 | +206 | +1,567 | |
| Materialsbreakout | +36 | +57 | +238 | |
| Health Carebullish reversal | +27 | +16 | -92 | |
| Communication Servicesbullish reversal | +16 | +10 | -263 | |
| Industrialsbullish reversal | +18 | -109 | -430 | |
| Utilities | -21 | -136 | -833 | |
| Consumer Staples | -25 | -143 | -616 | |
| Consumer Discretionary | -10 | -215 | -1,247 | |
| Real Estate | -106 | -314 | -1,709 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cryptocurrency | +18.5 | +23 | |
| Monetary Policy | +17.8 | +15 | |
| Oil Prices | +14.3 | +32 | |
| Tariffs | +14.2 | +13 | |
| Inflation | -39.8 | -41 | |
| Artificial Intelligence | -91.5 | +72 | |
| Bond Market | -111.8 | -115 | |
| Interest Rates | -124.7 | -157 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Theme | Sources | Conviction | |
|---|---|---|---|
| financial regulation | 161 | 81 | |
| defense security | 143 | 74 | |
| healthcare policy | 132 | 66 | |
| transport mobility | 132 | 63 | |
| geopolitics | 127 | 77 | |
| banking | 123 | 72 | |
| monetary policy | 108 | 77 | |
| agriculture food | 103 | 72 | |
| education skills | 88 | 69 | |
| trade policy | 65 | 82 |
A slower reading than the panels above. Sources counts the documents behind a theme; conviction weighs how many independent sources agree, how recent they are and how strong the signal is. Moves over weeks, not hours.
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Short-term | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BLK | BlackRock | 1,041 | — | — |
| Manages ESG-focused funds aligned with mandatory climate risk disclosure frameworks. banking, financial regulation, geopolitics, monetary policy | ||||
| LMT | Lockheed Martin | 731 | — | — |
| Defense segment reliant on offensive weapons systems faces reduced demand as de-escalation prioritizes non-combat security solutions defense security, financial regulation, geopolitics | ||||
| JPM | JPMorgan Chase & Co | 638 | — | — |
| Global bank with significant USD trade finance exposure in Australia-China corridor banking, financial regulation, monetary policy | ||||
| SPGI | S&P Global | 547 | — | — |
| Data analytics provider supplying price transparency compliance solutions to enterprises banking, financial regulation | ||||
| MSCI | MSCI Inc | 520 | — | — |
| Provides ESG ratings and climate risk analytics demanded by regulators for portfolio compliance. banking, financial regulation | ||||
| DE | Deere & Company | 518 | — | — |
| Agricultural equipment demand grows domestically as US farm subsidies expand under protectionist policies. agriculture food, geopolitics, trade policy | ||||
| MUFG | Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group | 491 | — | — |
| Large Japanese bank exposed to Bank of Japan monetary base and liquidity operations. banking, financial regulation, monetary policy | ||||
| PLTR | Palantir Technologies | 439 | +2.7 | aligned |
| Provides data analytics and AI platforms heavily utilized in US and UK government procurement. defense security, financial regulation, geopolitics, industrial policy | ||||
| HDB | HDFC Bank | 429 | — | — |
| Major systemic lender that manages liquidity via RBI auctions and provides funding to NBFCs. banking, financial regulation, monetary policy | ||||
| ICE | Intercontinental Exchange | 397 | — | — |
| Operates global exchanges and clearing houses benefiting from modernized market plumbing. capital markets, financial regulation, monetary policy | ||||
Weight is how prominently a company features across the document corpus, with the reason for its exposure underneath. These are the names that recur in policy and regulatory material, which is a different population from the tickers moving on today's news. Where a name also has a current sentiment score, both are shown: aligned means they point the same way, diverging means one horizon has not caught up with the other.
Bilateral swaps boost local currency trade finance
Central banks maintain stable rates (e.g., India) while expanding bilateral swap agreements (Australia-China renewal). This reduces dollar dependency for Australia-China trade, lowering FX costs and volatility. Cross-border payment infrastructure gains as local currency settlements increase. Commodity exporters (Australia) benefit from smoother trade with China. USD-based trade finance faces reduced demand in this co
Better placed: Cross-border payment infrastructure, Commodity trading (Australia-China), Regional banking networks
More exposed: USD-based trade finance services
Named: CBA.AX, BHP.AX, JPM
What would break this: Geopolitical tensions disrupt swap renewals; central banks raise rates unexpectedly due to inflation shock
Regulatory clarity boosts digital asset infrastructure and transparent pricing tech
Regulators (EU/UK/US) are mandating price transparency to combat drip/personalized pricing, requiring businesses to disclose full costs upfront. Simultaneously, new frameworks for crypto/compute derivatives reduce market uncertainty. This benefits compliant digital asset service providers (e.g., custody, trading platforms) and tech firms enabling transparent pricing systems. Unregulated exchanges face exclusion due t
Better placed: digital asset custody, price transparency software, regulatory compliance services
More exposed: unregulated crypto exchanges, businesses using drip pricing
Named: COIN, ADYEN, SPGI
What would break this: Regulatory delays or inconsistent global standards could stall market adoption and reduce demand for compliance tools.
Humanitarian aid expansion drives logistics, health, comms demand
Coordinated global humanitarian aid (EU Colombia mobilization, UN earthquake aid scaling, WHO Ebola response, UNESCO media emphasis) directly increases need for emergency logistics to transport supplies across borders, health infrastructure for disease outbreaks, and communication technology for real-time coordination. This creates immediate sectoral demand without evidence of offsetting pressures.
Better placed: emergency logistics, health infrastructure, communication technology
Named: UPS, CSCO, JNJ
What would break this: Geopolitical conflicts disrupting international coordination, major donor budget cuts to humanitarian aid, or technological shifts rendering current communication infrastructure obsolete.
De-escalation focus boosts humanitarian and security infrastructure demand
The trend shows increased international coordination for peace agreements (e.g., DRC armed group neutralization) and civilian protection appeals (Yemen/Gaza), driving demand for humanitarian aid logistics to support displaced populations. Security cooperation in Lebanon indicates rising need for conflict-zone infrastructure, while offensive military operations face reduced priority as de-escalation becomes central.
Better placed: Humanitarian aid services, Peacekeeping operations, Conflict zone security infrastructure
More exposed: Offensive defense systems, High-intensity combat weapons
Named: ACM, FDX, LMT, BA
What would break this: Escalation of major conflicts (e.g., Ukraine war spillover) or failure of international coordination mechanisms would negate the trend.
Stricter ESG/governance rules boost compliance firms, pressure opaque operators
Regulatory actions (FTC settlements, UK governance enforcement, Japan's ESG bonds) demonstrate global alignment on mandatory transparency and climate risk integration. This directly benefits sectors providing regulatory compliance solutions and sustainable finance infrastructure while pressuring entities reliant on deceptive practices or inadequate climate disclosures. Demand for verifiable ESG data and governance to
Better placed: ESG data & analytics providers, Sustainable finance infrastructure (e.g., green bond platforms), Corporate governance technology
More exposed: Consumer-facing firms with opaque fee structures, Fossil fuel-heavy E&P operators lacking climate transition plans, Traditional asset managers resisting ESG integration
Named: MSCI, MSFT, BLK, DUK
What would break this: Regulatory rollbacks in key jurisdictions, industry lobbying success reducing enforcement scope, or rapid adoption of AI-driven compliance tools bypassing human oversight.
Domestic manufacturing gains as global supply chains fragment
Protectionist policies like US tariffs and reshoring incentives reduce reliance on imports, boosting domestic production. EU's erosion of open trade increases barriers for export-dependent sectors while prioritizing local supply chains. This shifts capital toward domestically oriented infrastructure and manufacturing, pressuring multinational supply chain models.
Better placed: domestic manufacturing, supply chain localization, renewable energy infrastructure
More exposed: global supply chains, commodity exporters, multinational services
Named: CAT, INTC, BA, DE
What would break this: WTO challenges to tariffs, rapid inflation from import costs reducing policy support, or unexpected multilateral trade agreements reversing protectionism.
FDA device reclassification accelerates medtech market entry
The FDA's shift of devices from Class III (high-risk) to Class II/I (lower-risk) reduces premarket approval requirements. This lowers development costs and time-to-market for affected products, directly benefiting innovation in digital health and diagnostics. Regulatory burden reduction encourages new entrants and faster adoption of healthcare technologies without compromising safety via special controls.
Better placed: Digital health platforms, Point-of-care diagnostics, Wearable health monitors
More exposed: Regulatory consulting (Class III)
Named: MDT, ABT, DXCM, SYK
What would break this: Safety incidents linked to reduced oversight or reversal of FDA's reclassification policy would undermine the trend.
US domestic manufacturing gains from tariff-driven reshoring
Protectionist policies (tariffs on imports, reshoring incentives) increase cost of foreign goods relative to domestic alternatives. This directly boosts demand for US-made products in sectors like consumer durables and industrial equipment. Conversely, export-dependent supply chains face higher costs due to retaliatory tariffs and reduced global trade flows.
Better placed: domestic manufacturing, reshoring services, tariff-protected consumer goods
More exposed: export-oriented manufacturing, global supply chain logistics
Named: WHR, CAT, FLEX, PVH
What would break this: Policy reversal due to economic downturn or new multilateral trade agreements overriding protectionism.
Readings drawn from the document corpus, not from price action. Each carries the case against it, because a view without a stated way to be wrong is not worth much. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell anything.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Markov Regime Engine | UP | 80% |
| Macro Factor Gate | UP | 55% |
Consensus: BULLISH
Weekly index projection: +1.34% (80% band -3.78% to +4.80%).
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 11.2% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 49% |
| Variance risk premium | +4.6 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.55% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.46% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.52% |
Premium in normal range — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.05 in-sample / 0.09 OOS, worst 0.05) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Artificial Intelligence | 0.90 | 0.6h | CRITICAL |
| Interest Rates | 0.85 | 0.6h | ELEVATED |
| Crypto & Digital Assets | 0.82 | 1.3h | ELEVATED |
| Oil & Gas | 0.79 | 2.0h | ELEVATED |
| Inflation | 0.79 | 1.8h | ELEVATED |
| Aerospace & Defense | 0.75 | 1.7h | ELEVATED |
| Semiconductors | 0.69 | 1.5h | SUBCRITICAL |
| M&A | 0.66 | 0.9h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 116 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 1,454 |
| Projected close of day | 1,808 |
| Daily average | 1,342 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 1.10× |
| Total in corpus | 163,770 |
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.