real time stock market sentiment dashboard
A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login, no sign-up.
Regime read: LONG · expected +2.77% ± 5.28% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.52 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Bull (74.4% posterior, +41.3%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.1167%/day and dominates. Net +0.1183%/day.
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MRNA | +11.5 | Health Care | -31.7 | — | 80% | Moderna's 177% Surge Powers a Broad Biotech RallyFwd P/E < 15EV/EBITDA < 10Price > Analyst TargetUNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
| HOOD | +10.9 | Financials | 33.3 | 2.17 | 49% | Robinhood Markets, Inc. stock surges to $108.16 amid crypto rally, RSI overboughtprofitableExtended FWD P/EExpensive PEGY (>2) |
| PLTR | +4.0 | Information Technology | 77.8 | 2.35 | 73% | Prediction: This Will Be Palantir's Stock Price at the End of 2026profitableExtended FWD P/EExpensive PEGY (>2) |
| COIN | +3.3 | Financials | 61.8 | — | 18% | The U.S. Senate Faces a Critical Vote on the Clarity Act on Sept. 15. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong Says It Will PassExtended FWD P/EUNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
| NBIS | +2.6 | Communication Services | -73.1 | — | 66% | Nebius prices $5 billion of convertible notes for AI infrastructure expansionFwd P/E < 15UNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
NO TRADE: every ranked play has a negative expected net gain after costs in the current regime. The table is a relative ordering, not a buy list.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TVTX | LONG | 43.7% | -0.26 | -0.47 | -0.49 | Accelerating velocity +7.0 (2 mentions/12h); Quality: F-score 7/9 |
| 2 | JOBY | LONG | 42.1% | -0.21 | -0.44 | -0.63 | Accelerating velocity +6.8 (2 mentions/12h) |
| 3 | NBIS | LONG | 42.5% | -0.22 | -0.47 | -0.94 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 2.6); Accelerating velocity +11.2 (3 mentions/12h); ⚠ UNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
| 4 | BABA | LONG | 43.3% | -0.38 | -0.51 | -0.31 | Despair reversion: sentiment -17 but undervalued |
| 5 | PLTR | LONG | 42.5% | -0.22 | -0.47 | -0.94 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 4.1); Accelerating velocity +4.8 (3 mentions/12h); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Expensive PEGY (>2); Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 6 | HOOD | LONG | 42.5% | -0.22 | -0.47 | -0.94 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 11.0); Accelerating velocity +16.0 (6 mentions/12h); CIO meta-model current selection; ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Expensive PEGY (>2) |
| 7 | MRNA | LONG | 43.0% | -0.23 | -0.50 | -1.27 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 11.6); ⚠ Price > Analyst Target; UNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
| 8 | COIN | LONG | 43.0% | -0.23 | -0.50 | -1.27 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 3.4); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; UNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
Engine hit rate 42.7% over 321 scored calls (lower bound 37.4%), average net alpha -0.237%. Serving: rules.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
The market is valuing the company based on revenue streams that are being actively terminated, creating a massive valuation gap and a high probability of a significant downward correction.
2026-08-21 06:57Teledyne Technologies' acquisition of Varex Imaging Corporation (VREX) at a 52% premium provides a strong bullish catalyst, but risk-adjusted conviction is-capped to avoid treating the nominal offer price as an absolute physical floor.
2026-08-16 01:20S&P 500 deletion triggers non-discretionary passive selling pressure that typically outweighs short-term fundamental value gaps until a liquidity bottom is found.
2026-08-15 11:12A 29% plunge following a revenue guidance cut for 2026 suggests a systemic growth failure rather than a temporary dip, signaling a fundamental erosion of trust in management's execution.
2026-08-15 03:37Cerebras Systems (CBRS) experienced a significant price plunge following earnings, signaling a market rejection of its valuation and a fundamental disconnect between AI hype and actual execution.
2026-08-13 12:40A tempered outlook due to underwhelming running-shoe sales in a high-multiple growth stock is a fundamental valuation reset catalyst rather than a temporary dip.
2026-08-13 00:13Safety concerns regarding Vykat in a biotech pipeline are fundamentally bearish catalysts as they increase regulatory risk and probability of clinical failure, outweighing speculative 'blood in the streets' buying opportunities.
2026-08-12 13:10A massive 17% jump following a blowout earnings beat suggests strong momentum and pricing power, but conviction is capped by the potential for 'sell the news' profit-taking and macro travel spending risks.
2026-08-10 10:50Nielsen's $2.15 billion takeover of DoubleVerify is a major bullish catalyst, but the stock will likely trade at a discount to the offer price due to deal risk and the correctness of the pre-announcement run-up.
2026-08-08 12:21The announcement of a cash buyout to take the company private is a primary catalyst for price convergence toward the offer price, though conviction is tempered by the M&A arbitrage spread and potential 'sell the news' dynamics.
2026-08-08 11:40Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
| Ticker | Velocity | Vol | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOOD | +12.4 | 5 | Robinhood Markets, Inc. stock surges to $108.16 amid crypto rally, RSI overbought |
| NBIS | +11.2 | 3 | Nebius prices $5 billion of convertible notes for AI infrastructure expansion |
| TVTX | +7.0 | 2 | IBD Stock Of The Day, Travere Therapeutics, Tests Another Breakout. Can The Stock Get Any 'Sweeter?' |
| JOBY | +6.8 | 2 | How Buying Joby Aviation Stock Today Could 10X Your Net Worth |
| PLTR | +4.8 | 3 | Prediction: This Will Be Palantir's Stock Price at the End of 2026 |
Change in scored coverage over the last 12 hours versus the prior 12.
| BABA | -11.7 | Alibaba's Revenue Jumps 9% as AI Cloud Growth Hits 45%—But a Profit Plunge Sends Shares Lower |
| BE | -2.1 | Bloom Energy vs. Palantir: Which "Story Stock" Actually Has More Room to Run? |
| CIFR | -1.6 | Cipher Digital Stock Is Valued On Revenue It Is Shutting Down |
| FLOC | -1.3 | Flowco’s (FLOC) Growth Story Runs Into a Cost Problem |
| AFRM | -1.3 | Klarna Slides 5%, Affirm Slips 3%, but PayPal Stays in the Green: Is a Rotation in BNPL Stocks Afoot? |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financials | +217 | +381 | +2,347 | |
| Energy | +87 | +342 | +1,373 | |
| Information Technology | +36 | +227 | +1,166 | |
| Materials | +40 | +128 | +278 | |
| Health Carebullish reversal | +6 | +45 | -70 | |
| Communication Services | -38 | -47 | -264 | |
| Industrials | -14 | -104 | -353 | |
| Consumer Staples | -55 | -142 | -638 | |
| Utilities | -96 | -184 | -890 | |
| Consumer Discretionary | -76 | -280 | -1,195 | |
| Real Estate | -104 | -370 | -1,753 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Artificial Intelligence | +143.0 | +259 | |
| Cryptocurrency | +89.8 | +95 | |
| Semiconductors | +42.5 | +54 | |
| Digital Assets | +29.7 | +39 | |
| National Debt | -16.3 | -18 | |
| Monetary Policy | -17.5 | -18 | |
| Market Volatility | -23.8 | -32 | |
| Interest Rates | -138.8 | -203 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Theme | Sources | Conviction | |
|---|---|---|---|
| financial regulation | 166 | 73 | |
| healthcare policy | 155 | 73 | |
| defense security | 152 | 76 | |
| transport mobility | 139 | 62 | |
| geopolitics | 131 | 76 | |
| banking | 124 | 72 | |
| monetary policy | 112 | 73 | |
| agriculture food | 111 | 72 | |
| education skills | 91 | 72 | |
| energy policy | 68 | 49 |
A slower reading than the panels above. Sources counts the documents behind a theme; conviction weighs how many independent sources agree, how recent they are and how strong the signal is. Moves over weeks, not hours.
| Ticker | Company | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| BLK | BlackRock | 1,093 |
| Manages low-risk index funds and ETFs that retail investors are shifting to under new regulations. banking, financial regulation, geopolitics, monetary policy | ||
| LMT | Lockheed Martin | 1,009 |
| Key supplier of F-35 jets and missile systems for UK/Japan partnerships in Indo-Pacific security initiatives defense security, financial regulation, geopolitics, trade policy | ||
| JPM | JPMorgan Chase & Co | 572 |
| Major commercial bank benefiting from rising interest rates and normalized monetary policy banking, financial regulation, monetary policy | ||
| MSCI | MSCI Inc | 515 |
| Provides ESG ratings and climate risk analytics demanded by regulators for portfolio compliance. banking, financial regulation | ||
| DE | Deere & Company | 507 |
| Agricultural equipment demand grows domestically as US farm subsidies expand under protectionist policies. agriculture food, geopolitics, trade policy | ||
| CAT | Caterpillar | 463 |
| Domestic construction equipment demand rises with US infrastructure spending under reshoring policies. climate policy, labor markets, trade policy, transport mobility | ||
| SPGI | S&P Global | 460 |
| Offers credit ratings and data analytics essential for banks meeting central bank stability requirements. banking, financial regulation | ||
| HDB | HDFC Bank | 441 |
| Major systemic lender that manages liquidity via RBI auctions and provides funding to NBFCs. banking, financial regulation, monetary policy | ||
| MUFG | Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group | 422 |
| Large Japanese bank exposed to Bank of Japan monetary base and liquidity operations. banking, financial regulation, monetary policy | ||
| ICE | Intercontinental Exchange | 394 |
| Operates global exchanges and clearing houses benefiting from modernized market plumbing. capital markets, financial regulation, monetary policy | ||
Weight is how prominently a company features across the document corpus, with the reason for its exposure underneath. These are the names that recur in policy and regulatory material, which is a different population from the tickers moving on today's news.
Regulated retail investments gain as high-risk products banned
Stricter regulations on unregulated mini-bonds (UK FCA) and pension plan funding adjustments (US Treasury) reduce availability of high-risk retail investment products. Retail investors will shift toward regulated alternatives like index funds and ETFs, benefiting asset managers with low-cost, compliant offerings. Sectors reliant on unregulated debt issuance or complex structured products face reduced demand and incre
Better placed: Regulated retail investment platforms, Low-risk index fund management
More exposed: Unregulated debt issuance, High-risk structured product sales
Named: BLK, SCHW, STT, PSR
What would break this: Regulators relax rules to boost market activity, or retail investors prioritize returns over risk during prolonged bull markets.
Defense partnerships boost global military hardware demand
Recent UK-NZ/UK-Japan security agreements directly address active conflicts (Ukraine, Indo-Pacific), increasing demand for interoperable military equipment and technology. Multilateral consensus on peace processes (e.g., E1 settlement condemnation) does not offset defense spending trends but may accelerate diplomatic coordination around shared security goals. This expands opportunities for contractors supporting inte
Better placed: international defense partnerships, military hardware manufacturing, defense technology integration
Named: LMT, RTX, BAESY
What would break this: If major defense partnerships collapse due to budget cuts or rapid de-escalation in Ukraine/Indo-Pacific, reducing near-term procurement needs.
Security-driven policies boost defense and space infrastructure
Governments embedding national security into economic strategy (UK defense manufacturing growth, China's security-focused industrial policy, US space security priorities) directly increases public spending on defense systems. Forced labor tariffs further restrict global supply chains for non-security-aligned sectors while incentivizing domestic production of critical security-related technologies like cyber infrastru
Better placed: defense manufacturing, space security technology, cybersecurity infrastructure
More exposed: global supply chain-dependent manufacturing, non-critical industrial sectors with exposed labor practices
Named: LMT, NOC, RTX, AAPL
What would break this: Governments abandon security integration for economic growth policies, or international trade agreements override forced labor tariffs through diplomatic channels.
Bilateral currency swaps support cross-border trade finance
RBI maintaining unchanged rates prevents increased borrowing costs for businesses, supporting stable credit conditions. Australia-China bilateral currency swap reduces FX volatility and transaction costs for direct trade between the two nations, directly benefiting financial institutions facilitating these transactions and export-oriented sectors reliant on China trade.
Better placed: cross-border trade finance, international banking services
Named: CBA.AX, WBC.AX, BHP.AX
What would break this: Global economic shock forcing rate hikes or termination of Australia-China currency swap agreement
Stricter ESG/governance rules boost compliance firms, pressure opaque operators
Regulatory actions (FTC settlements, UK governance enforcement, Japan's ESG bonds) demonstrate global alignment on mandatory transparency and climate risk integration. This directly benefits sectors providing regulatory compliance solutions and sustainable finance infrastructure while pressuring entities reliant on deceptive practices or inadequate climate disclosures. Demand for verifiable ESG data and governance to
Better placed: ESG data & analytics providers, Sustainable finance infrastructure (e.g., green bond platforms), Corporate governance technology
More exposed: Consumer-facing firms with opaque fee structures, Fossil fuel-heavy E&P operators lacking climate transition plans, Traditional asset managers resisting ESG integration
Named: MSCI, MSFT, BLK, DUK
What would break this: Regulatory rollbacks in key jurisdictions, industry lobbying success reducing enforcement scope, or rapid adoption of AI-driven compliance tools bypassing human oversight.
Domestic manufacturing gains as global supply chains fragment
Protectionist policies like US tariffs and reshoring incentives reduce reliance on imports, boosting domestic production. EU's erosion of open trade increases barriers for export-dependent sectors while prioritizing local supply chains. This shifts capital toward domestically oriented infrastructure and manufacturing, pressuring multinational supply chain models.
Better placed: domestic manufacturing, supply chain localization, renewable energy infrastructure
More exposed: global supply chains, commodity exporters, multinational services
Named: CAT, INTC, BA, DE
What would break this: WTO challenges to tariffs, rapid inflation from import costs reducing policy support, or unexpected multilateral trade agreements reversing protectionism.
FDA device reclassification accelerates medtech market entry
The FDA's shift of devices from Class III (high-risk) to Class II/I (lower-risk) reduces premarket approval requirements. This lowers development costs and time-to-market for affected products, directly benefiting innovation in digital health and diagnostics. Regulatory burden reduction encourages new entrants and faster adoption of healthcare technologies without compromising safety via special controls.
Better placed: Digital health platforms, Point-of-care diagnostics, Wearable health monitors
More exposed: Regulatory consulting (Class III)
Named: MDT, ABT, DXCM, SYK
What would break this: Safety incidents linked to reduced oversight or reversal of FDA's reclassification policy would undermine the trend.
US domestic manufacturing gains from tariff-driven reshoring
Protectionist policies (tariffs on imports, reshoring incentives) increase cost of foreign goods relative to domestic alternatives. This directly boosts demand for US-made products in sectors like consumer durables and industrial equipment. Conversely, export-dependent supply chains face higher costs due to retaliatory tariffs and reduced global trade flows.
Better placed: domestic manufacturing, reshoring services, tariff-protected consumer goods
More exposed: export-oriented manufacturing, global supply chain logistics
Named: WHR, CAT, FLEX, PVH
What would break this: Policy reversal due to economic downturn or new multilateral trade agreements overriding protectionism.
Readings drawn from the document corpus, not from price action. Each carries the case against it, because a view without a stated way to be wrong is not worth much. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell anything.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Markov Regime Engine | UP | 82% |
| Macro Factor Gate | UP | 55% |
Consensus: BULLISH
Weekly index projection: +1.10% (80% band -3.39% to +4.02%).
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 10.6% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 45% |
| Variance risk premium | +3.9 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.56% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.48% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.54% |
Premium in normal range — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.05 in-sample / 0.09 OOS, worst 0.05) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond Market | 0.97 | 1.1h | CRITICAL |
| Interest Rates | 0.91 | 0.6h | CRITICAL |
| Artificial Intelligence | 0.91 | 0.6h | CRITICAL |
| Crypto & Digital Assets | 0.88 | 1.4h | ELEVATED |
| Oil & Gas | 0.80 | 2.2h | ELEVATED |
| Semiconductors | 0.73 | 1.8h | ELEVATED |
| Biotechnology | 0.66 | 1.2h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Aerospace & Defense | 0.64 | 1.8h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 192 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 1,435 |
| Projected close of day | 1,009 |
| Daily average | 1,344 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 1.13× |
| Total in corpus | 165,281 |
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.