real time stock market sentiment dashboard
A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login, no sign-up.
Regime read: LONG · expected +2.77% ± 5.28% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.52 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Bull (74.4% posterior, +41.3%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.1167%/day and dominates. Net +0.1183%/day.
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MRNA | +10.8 | Health Care | -31.7 | — | 80% | Moderna's Comeback Is Finally Taking Shape -- and There May Be More Upside AheadFwd P/E < 15EV/EBITDA < 10Price > Analyst TargetUNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
| HOOD | +9.4 | Financials | 33.3 | 2.17 | 49% | Robinhood Markets, Inc. stock surges to $108.16 amid crypto rally, RSI overboughtprofitableExtended FWD P/EExpensive PEGY (>2) |
| PLTR | +5.3 | Information Technology | 77.8 | 2.35 | 73% | Is Palantir Still a Buy After Its 33% Rally Over the Past Month?profitableExtended FWD P/EExpensive PEGY (>2) |
| GEV | +3.0 | Industrials | 38.1 | 1.66 | 64% | GE Vernova's AI Data Center Orders Just Doubled All of 2025 in 1 Half-Year. Is the Stock Still a Buy?profitableExtended FWD P/E |
| COIN | +2.8 | Financials | 61.8 | — | 18% | The U.S. Senate Faces a Critical Vote on the Clarity Act on Sept. 15. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong Says It Will PassExtended FWD P/EUNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
NO TRADE: every ranked play has a negative expected net gain after costs in the current regime. The table is a relative ordering, not a buy list.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IREN | LONG | 43.7% | -0.26 | -0.47 | -0.49 | Accelerating velocity +5.6 (2 mentions/12h) |
| 2 | JOBY | LONG | 42.1% | -0.21 | -0.44 | -0.63 | Accelerating velocity +6.8 (2 mentions/12h) |
| 3 | NBIS | LONG | 42.1% | -0.21 | -0.44 | -0.63 | Accelerating velocity +6.4 (2 mentions/12h) |
| 4 | GEV | LONG | 43.0% | -0.23 | -0.50 | -1.27 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 3.0); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Quality: F-score 7/9 |
| 5 | BABA | LONG | 43.3% | -0.38 | -0.51 | -0.31 | Despair reversion: sentiment -13 but undervalued |
| 6 | PLTR | LONG | 42.5% | -0.22 | -0.47 | -0.94 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 5.3); Accelerating velocity +1.8 (2 mentions/12h); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Expensive PEGY (>2); Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 7 | HOOD | LONG | 42.5% | -0.22 | -0.47 | -0.94 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 9.4); Accelerating velocity +10.0 (4 mentions/12h); CIO meta-model current selection; ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Expensive PEGY (>2) |
| 8 | MRNA | LONG | 43.0% | -0.23 | -0.50 | -1.27 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 10.8); ⚠ Price > Analyst Target; UNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
Engine hit rate 42.7% over 321 scored calls (lower bound 37.4%), average net alpha -0.237%. Serving: rules.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
The market is valuing the company based on revenue streams that are being actively terminated, creating a massive valuation gap and a high probability of a significant downward correction.
2026-08-21 06:57Teledyne Technologies' acquisition of Varex Imaging Corporation (VREX) at a 52% premium provides a strong bullish catalyst, but risk-adjusted conviction is-capped to avoid treating the nominal offer price as an absolute physical floor.
2026-08-16 01:20S&P 500 deletion triggers non-discretionary passive selling pressure that typically outweighs short-term fundamental value gaps until a liquidity bottom is found.
2026-08-15 11:12A 29% plunge following a revenue guidance cut for 2026 suggests a systemic growth failure rather than a temporary dip, signaling a fundamental erosion of trust in management's execution.
2026-08-15 03:37Cerebras Systems (CBRS) experienced a significant price plunge following earnings, signaling a market rejection of its valuation and a fundamental disconnect between AI hype and actual execution.
2026-08-13 12:40A tempered outlook due to underwhelming running-shoe sales in a high-multiple growth stock is a fundamental valuation reset catalyst rather than a temporary dip.
2026-08-13 00:13Safety concerns regarding Vykat in a biotech pipeline are fundamentally bearish catalysts as they increase regulatory risk and probability of clinical failure, outweighing speculative 'blood in the streets' buying opportunities.
2026-08-12 13:10A massive 17% jump following a blowout earnings beat suggests strong momentum and pricing power, but conviction is capped by the potential for 'sell the news' profit-taking and macro travel spending risks.
2026-08-10 10:50Nielsen's $2.15 billion takeover of DoubleVerify is a major bullish catalyst, but the stock will likely trade at a discount to the offer price due to deal risk and the correctness of the pre-announcement run-up.
2026-08-08 12:21The announcement of a cash buyout to take the company private is a primary catalyst for price convergence toward the offer price, though conviction is tempered by the M&A arbitrage spread and potential 'sell the news' dynamics.
2026-08-08 11:40Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
| Ticker | Velocity | Vol | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOOD | +10.0 | 4 | Robinhood Markets, Inc. stock surges to $108.16 amid crypto rally, RSI overbought |
| JOBY | +6.8 | 2 | How Buying Joby Aviation Stock Today Could 10X Your Net Worth |
| NBIS | +6.4 | 2 | Nebius prices $5 billion of convertible notes for AI infrastructure expansion |
| IREN | +5.6 | 2 | IREN Just Passed Its Biggest AI Test as Microsoft and Nvidia Bet Billions |
| PLTR | +1.8 | 2 | Is Palantir Still a Buy After Its 33% Rally Over the Past Month? |
Change in scored coverage over the last 12 hours versus the prior 12.
| BABA | -10.0 | Alibaba's Revenue Jumps 9% as AI Cloud Growth Hits 45%—But a Profit Plunge Sends Shares Lower |
| PSX | -1.8 | Are Phillips 66 (PSX) and Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) Still Attractive After the $180 Billion Deal Collapse? |
| BE | -1.8 | Bloom Energy vs. Palantir: Which "Story Stock" Actually Has More Room to Run? |
| CIFR | -1.4 | Cipher Digital Stock Is Valued On Revenue It Is Shutting Down |
| DAL | -1.3 | “I Warned Them. It Will Get Much Worse.” Elon Musk’s Stark Message for Delta Gains Traction |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy | +58 | +358 | +1,360 | |
| Financials | +187 | +338 | +2,310 | |
| Information Technology | +57 | +243 | +1,174 | |
| Materials | +27 | +129 | +280 | |
| Health Carebullish reversal | +8 | +49 | -60 | |
| Communication Services | -37 | -44 | -254 | |
| Industrials | -6 | -92 | -342 | |
| Consumer Staples | -61 | -139 | -644 | |
| Utilities | -73 | -183 | -884 | |
| Consumer Discretionary | -72 | -271 | -1,184 | |
| Real Estate | -91 | -384 | -1,758 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Artificial Intelligence | +154.3 | +272 | |
| Cryptocurrency | +81.2 | +88 | |
| Semiconductors | +35.3 | +48 | |
| Digital Assets | +26.2 | +36 | |
| Tariffs | -18.2 | -17 | |
| Monetary Policy | -18.7 | -19 | |
| Bond Yields | -21.5 | -26 | |
| Interest Rates | -121.8 | -196 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Markov Regime Engine | UP | 82% |
| Macro Factor Gate | UP | 55% |
Consensus: BULLISH
Weekly index projection: +1.12% (80% band -3.42% to +4.04%).
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 10.6% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 45% |
| Variance risk premium | +3.9 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.56% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.48% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.54% |
Premium in normal range — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.05 in-sample / 0.09 OOS, worst 0.05) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond Market | 0.98 | 1.2h | CRITICAL |
| Interest Rates | 0.91 | 0.6h | CRITICAL |
| Artificial Intelligence | 0.90 | 0.6h | CRITICAL |
| Crypto & Digital Assets | 0.84 | 1.2h | ELEVATED |
| Oil & Gas | 0.79 | 2.1h | ELEVATED |
| Semiconductors | 0.73 | 1.9h | ELEVATED |
| Biotechnology | 0.69 | 1.4h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Aerospace & Defense | 0.64 | 1.7h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 397 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 1,435 |
| Projected close of day | 1,090 |
| Daily average | 1,345 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 1.16× |
| Total in corpus | 165,486 |
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.