real time stock market sentiment dashboard
A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login, no sign-up.
Regime read: LONG · expected +2.76% ± 5.30% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.52 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Bull (74.8% posterior, +41.4%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.1177%/day and dominates. Net +0.1184%/day.
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MRNA | +4.8 | Health Care | -31.7 | — | 80% | Moderna (MRNA) Soars 179% as Melanoma Therapy Candidate Rewrites Growth StoryFwd P/E < 15EV/EBITDA < 10Price > Analyst TargetUNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
| HOOD | +4.2 | Financials | 33.3 | 2.45 | 49% | Why Robinhood Markets Stock Popped TodayprofitableExtended FWD P/EExpensive PEGY (>2) |
| PLTR | +3.6 | Information Technology | 77.8 | 2.41 | 73% | Prediction: This Will Be Palantir's Stock Price by the End of 2030profitableExtended FWD P/EExpensive PEGY (>2) |
| AFRM | +2.3 | Financials | 20.7 | 0.75 | 60% | Jim Cramer Said Affirm Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:AFRM) Was The One To Buyprofitable |
| FUTU | +2.2 | Financials | 10.0 | — | 35% | Futu Holdings (FUTU) Reports Stronger Q2 Results, Is It Still Undervalued?profitableFwd P/E < 15 |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
NO TRADE: every ranked play has a negative expected net gain after costs in the current regime. The table is a relative ordering, not a buy list.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FUTU | LONG | 52.8% | -0.23 | -0.50 | -1.27 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 2.2); Quality: F-score 7/9 |
| 2 | AFRM | LONG | 52.5% | -0.23 | -0.50 | -1.27 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 2.3); ⚠ Earnings in 3d — event risk inside hold window |
| 3 | PLTR | LONG | 53.2% | -0.23 | -0.50 | -1.27 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 3.6); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Expensive PEGY (>2); Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 4 | MRNA | LONG | 59.3% | -0.23 | -0.50 | -1.27 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 4.9); ⚠ Price > Analyst Target; UNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
| 5 | KKR | LONG | 48.3% | -0.41 | -0.54 | -0.26 | High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum |
| 6 | HOOD | LONG | 54.6% | -0.23 | -0.50 | -1.27 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 4.2); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Expensive PEGY (>2) |
| 7 | PYPL | LONG | 27.8% | -0.27 | -0.48 | -0.48 | Accelerating velocity +0.6 (2 mentions/12h); Quality: F-score 9/9 |
Engine hit rate 43.3% over 337 scored calls (lower bound 38.1%), average net alpha -0.208%. Serving: incumbent.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
A $10.2 billion share placement is a massive equity dilution event that the market is currently pricing as a high-risk gamble on AI, prioritizing immediate shareholder value destruction over theoretical long-term synergies.
2026-08-24 03:05The release of 319 million shares creates a massive supply overhang that outweighs the theoretical valuation floor, transforming the IPO mark into a hard ceiling and triggering a liquidity crunch.
2026-08-23 23:20The market is valuing the company based on revenue streams that are being actively terminated, creating a massive valuation gap and a high probability of a significant downward correction.
2026-08-21 06:57Teledyne Technologies' acquisition of Varex Imaging Corporation (VREX) at a 52% premium provides a strong bullish catalyst, but risk-adjusted conviction is-capped to avoid treating the nominal offer price as an absolute physical floor.
2026-08-16 01:20S&P 500 deletion triggers non-discretionary passive selling pressure that typically outweighs short-term fundamental value gaps until a liquidity bottom is found.
2026-08-15 11:12A 29% plunge following a revenue guidance cut for 2026 suggests a systemic growth failure rather than a temporary dip, signaling a fundamental erosion of trust in management's execution.
2026-08-15 03:37Cerebras Systems (CBRS) experienced a significant price plunge following earnings, signaling a market rejection of its valuation and a fundamental disconnect between AI hype and actual execution.
2026-08-13 12:40A tempered outlook due to underwhelming running-shoe sales in a high-multiple growth stock is a fundamental valuation reset catalyst rather than a temporary dip.
2026-08-13 00:13Safety concerns regarding Vykat in a biotech pipeline are fundamentally bearish catalysts as they increase regulatory risk and probability of clinical failure, outweighing speculative 'blood in the streets' buying opportunities.
2026-08-12 13:10A massive 17% jump following a blowout earnings beat suggests strong momentum and pricing power, but conviction is capped by the potential for 'sell the news' profit-taking and macro travel spending risks.
2026-08-10 10:50Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
| Ticker | Velocity | Vol | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| PYPL | +0.6 | 2 | Here’s What You Should Buy Over PayPal Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:PYPL) According To Jim Cramer |
Change in scored coverage over the last 12 hours versus the prior 12.
| DBX | -4.4 | Is Dropbox Stock a Buy as Revenue Grows Under 1% and Insiders Dispose of Shares? |
| CRCL | -3.3 | Cathie Wood Keeps Buying Circle Stock Despite 42% Price Slide |
| JOBY | -2.3 | Joby and Archer Are Racing to FAA Certification While Burning Hundreds of Millions a Year. Here's the 1 Number That Picks the Winner. |
| OKLO | -2.1 | Prediction: Oklo Won't Book Its First Commercial Power Revenue Before 2028 |
| ZTS | -1.8 | Zoetis Earnings Reveal a Divided Business, But Can its Pipeline Restore Growth? |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy | +26 | +425 | +984 | |
| Financialsbearish reversal | -35 | +309 | +2,098 | |
| Information Technology | +69 | +281 | +1,265 | |
| Materials | +32 | +179 | +320 | |
| Health Carebullish reversal | +26 | +85 | -29 | |
| Communication Services | -0 | -52 | -220 | |
| Industrials | -9 | -58 | -239 | |
| Consumer Staples | -6 | -132 | -604 | |
| Consumer Discretionary | -17 | -235 | -868 | |
| Utilities | -22 | -245 | -886 | |
| Real Estate | -63 | -558 | -1,822 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Interest Rates | +32.2 | -99 | |
| Bond Market | +23.3 | -15 | |
| Stock Market | +13.8 | +10 | |
| Treasury Yields | +10.3 | -2 | |
| M&A | -18.2 | -2 | |
| Geopolitics | -19.0 | -25 | |
| Semiconductors | -20.8 | +3 | |
| Monetary Policy | -26.3 | -34 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Theme | Sources | Conviction | |
|---|---|---|---|
| financial regulation | 167 | 73 | |
| defense security | 159 | 71 | |
| healthcare policy | 155 | 64 | |
| transport mobility | 141 | 70 | |
| geopolitics | 134 | 75 | |
| banking | 125 | 72 | |
| monetary policy | 119 | 73 | |
| agriculture food | 112 | 71 | |
| education skills | 92 | 70 | |
| energy policy | 69 | 84 |
A slower reading than the panels above. Sources counts the documents behind a theme; conviction weighs how many independent sources agree, how recent they are and how strong the signal is. Moves over weeks, not hours.
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Short-term | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BLK | BlackRock | 1,016 | — | — |
| Major asset manager with extensive regulated ETF and mutual fund offerings aligned with retail investor protection trends. banking, financial regulation, geopolitics, monetary policy | ||||
| LMT | Lockheed Martin | 996 | — | — |
| Major defense contractor with global partnerships for military hardware and intelligence sharing defense security, financial regulation, geopolitics, trade policy | ||||
| JPM | JPMorgan Chase & Co | 559 | — | — |
| Major commercial bank benefiting from rising interest rates and normalized monetary policy banking, financial regulation, monetary policy | ||||
| PLTR | Palantir Technologies | 502 | +3.6 | aligned |
| Provides data analytics for government counter-terrorism and intelligence operations defense security, financial regulation, geopolitics, industrial policy | ||||
| DE | Deere & Company | 496 | — | — |
| Agricultural equipment demand grows domestically as US farm subsidies expand under protectionist policies. agriculture food, geopolitics, trade policy | ||||
| CAT | Caterpillar | 464 | — | — |
| Domestic construction equipment demand rises with US infrastructure spending under reshoring policies. climate policy, labor markets, trade policy, transport mobility | ||||
| SPGI | S&P Global | 452 | — | — |
| Offers credit ratings and data analytics essential for banks meeting central bank stability requirements. banking, financial regulation | ||||
| HDB | HDFC Bank | 451 | — | — |
| Strong capital position and digital infrastructure to capitalize on liquidity tightening banking, financial regulation, monetary policy | ||||
| MSCI | MSCI Inc | 439 | — | — |
| Provides risk management and governance indices used by institutional investors to monitor regulatory compliance. banking, financial regulation | ||||
| MUFG | Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group | 414 | — | — |
| Large Japanese bank exposed to Bank of Japan monetary base and liquidity operations. banking, financial regulation, monetary policy | ||||
Weight is how prominently a company features across the document corpus, with the reason for its exposure underneath. These are the names that recur in policy and regulatory material, which is a different population from the tickers moving on today's news. Where a name also has a current sentiment score, both are shown: aligned means they point the same way, diverging means one horizon has not caught up with the other.
RBI liquidity tightening favors capital-strong banks and digital compliance firms
RBI's net absorption of ₹2.6T drains systemic liquidity, favoring banks with strong capital buffers that can capture market share from weaker peers. Stricter KYC enforcement directly benefits digital compliance solution providers as institutions face penalties for non-compliance. Retail lenders reliant on cheap deposits face margin pressure from reduced liquidity availability.
Better placed: banking sector (capital-strong), digital KYC infrastructure
More exposed: retail lending (low-margin), non-compliant financial institutions
Named: HDB, CAMS, YESB
What would break this: RBI reverses liquidity tightening, or economic downturn triggers emergency liquidity injection overriding regulatory enforcement.
Bilateral currency swaps support cross-border trade finance
RBI maintaining unchanged rates prevents increased borrowing costs for businesses, supporting stable credit conditions. Australia-China bilateral currency swap reduces FX volatility and transaction costs for direct trade between the two nations, directly benefiting financial institutions facilitating these transactions and export-oriented sectors reliant on China trade.
Better placed: cross-border trade finance, international banking services
Named: CBA.AX, WBC.AX, BHP.AX
What would break this: Global economic shock forcing rate hikes or termination of Australia-China currency swap agreement
Domestic manufacturing gains as global supply chains fragment
Protectionist policies like US tariffs and reshoring incentives reduce reliance on imports, boosting domestic production. EU's erosion of open trade increases barriers for export-dependent sectors while prioritizing local supply chains. This shifts capital toward domestically oriented infrastructure and manufacturing, pressuring multinational supply chain models.
Better placed: domestic manufacturing, supply chain localization, renewable energy infrastructure
More exposed: global supply chains, commodity exporters, multinational services
Named: CAT, INTC, BA, DE
What would break this: WTO challenges to tariffs, rapid inflation from import costs reducing policy support, or unexpected multilateral trade agreements reversing protectionism.
FDA device reclassification accelerates medtech market entry
The FDA's shift of devices from Class III (high-risk) to Class II/I (lower-risk) reduces premarket approval requirements. This lowers development costs and time-to-market for affected products, directly benefiting innovation in digital health and diagnostics. Regulatory burden reduction encourages new entrants and faster adoption of healthcare technologies without compromising safety via special controls.
Better placed: Digital health platforms, Point-of-care diagnostics, Wearable health monitors
More exposed: Regulatory consulting (Class III)
Named: MDT, ABT, DXCM, SYK
What would break this: Safety incidents linked to reduced oversight or reversal of FDA's reclassification policy would undermine the trend.
US domestic manufacturing gains from tariff-driven reshoring
Protectionist policies (tariffs on imports, reshoring incentives) increase cost of foreign goods relative to domestic alternatives. This directly boosts demand for US-made products in sectors like consumer durables and industrial equipment. Conversely, export-dependent supply chains face higher costs due to retaliatory tariffs and reduced global trade flows.
Better placed: domestic manufacturing, reshoring services, tariff-protected consumer goods
More exposed: export-oriented manufacturing, global supply chain logistics
Named: WHR, CAT, FLEX, PVH
What would break this: Policy reversal due to economic downturn or new multilateral trade agreements overriding protectionism.
RBI liquidity tightening and NBFC scrutiny pressure non-bank funding costs
The RBI's use of VRRR auctions to absorb excess liquidity reduces the overall pool of loanable funds in the banking system, which typically leads to higher borrowing costs for financial intermediaries. Since Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) rely heavily on bank borrowings and wholesale markets rather than deposits, they are more sensitive to these liquidity drains. Simultaneously, strict regulatory oversight r
Better placed: large systemic commercial banks, regulatory compliance technology providers, high-credit-rating NBFCs
More exposed: small to mid-sized NBFCs, high-leverage shadow banking entities, unsecured consumer credit lenders
Named: HDB, BAJFINANCE, SBIN, ICICI
What would break this: A significant increase in foreign portfolio investment (FPI) inflows could offset VRRR absorption, or a pivot by the RBI toward an accommodative stance to stimulate growth.
Defense contractors benefit from rising bilateral security partnerships
Evidence shows UK-Japan defense collaboration on Ukraine support, UK-France migration agreements, and multilateral diplomatic actions. These demonstrate increased demand for military equipment (e.g., joint Ukraine support), border surveillance tech (migration control), and cybersecurity/intelligence sharing. Defense contractors and security technology providers directly benefit from expanded international partnership
Better placed: defense contractors, border security technology, cybersecurity services
Named: LMT, RTX, NOC, PLTR
What would break this: Major powers shift to unilateral security actions; global economic downturns trigger defense budget cuts; or a large-scale conflict overshadows cooperative frameworks.
Stricter rules boost regulated investment platforms; pressure unregulated products
Regulatory bodies are implementing stricter rules to protect retail investors from high-risk unregulated products (e.g., UK mini-bond ban) and ensure pension stability (US funding proposals). This reduces demand for unregulated products, pressuring issuers of such products. Simultaneously, it increases demand for regulated investment platforms (ETFs, mutual funds) as retail investors shift away from risky alternative
Better placed: Regulated retail investment platforms, Pension plan administration
More exposed: Unregulated high-risk product issuers
Named: BLK, STT, SCHW
What would break this: Regulatory rollbacks (e.g., UK lifting mini-bond ban), failure of US pension funding proposals to pass, or retail investor preference for high-risk products despite regulations.
Readings drawn from the document corpus, not from price action. Each carries the case against it, because a view without a stated way to be wrong is not worth much. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell anything.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Markov Regime Engine | UP | 82% |
| Macro Factor Gate | UP | 55% |
Consensus: BULLISH
Weekly index projection: +1.22% (80% band -3.54% to +4.27%).
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 10.6% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 45% |
| Variance risk premium | +4.6 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.56% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.48% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.54% |
Premium in normal range — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.05 in-sample / 0.09 OOS, worst 0.05) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Interest Rates | 0.94 | 0.8h | CRITICAL |
| Bond Market | 0.94 | 1.6h | CRITICAL |
| Artificial Intelligence | 0.92 | 0.7h | CRITICAL |
| Crypto & Digital Assets | 0.88 | 1.3h | ELEVATED |
| Gold & Commodities | 0.80 | 3.1h | ELEVATED |
| Semiconductors | 0.75 | 2.2h | ELEVATED |
| Oil & Gas | 0.74 | 1.6h | ELEVATED |
| Monetary Policy | 0.71 | 2.1h | ELEVATED |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 308 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 885 |
| Projected close of day | 1,218 |
| Daily average | 1,339 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 0.55× |
| Total in corpus | 167,392 |
Coverage volume is unusually low; treat every reading below as provisional.
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.