real time stock market sentiment dashboard
A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login, no sign-up.
Regime read: LONG · expected +2.88% ± 5.20% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.55 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Bull (86.1% posterior, +40.5%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.1305%/day and dominates. Net +0.1321%/day.
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BE | +10.1 | Industrials | 44.1 | 0.85 | 56% | Falling, Falling, Falling: Why One of Wall Street’s Biggest Ratings Agencies Expects Bloom Energy to Explode 70% HigherprofitableExtended FWD P/E |
| COIN | +6.5 | Financials | 64.8 | — | 18% | Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong Says Crypto May Be on the Cusp of Next Bull Market, Touts 'AI-Fi' as New OpportunityExtended FWD P/EUNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
| HOOD | +5.4 | Financials | 34.5 | 2.45 | 54% | Robinhood Rises 7%, Webull Climbs 4% as a Day Trading Rule Repeal Ignites Retail Crypto OrdersprofitableExtended FWD P/EExpensive PEGY (>2) |
| MRNA | +4.2 | Health Care | -34.5 | — | 88% | Moderna Rallies 11%, BioNTech Ticks Up: Is the mRNA Trade Down to One Name?Fwd P/E < 15EV/EBITDA < 10Price > Analyst TargetUNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
| ROKU | +4.0 | Communication Services | 40.7 | 0.89 | 100% | Roku (ROKU) Announces Acquisition by Fox Corp for $96 Cash and SharesprofitableNear 52w HighExtended FWD P/E |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
NO TRADE: every ranked play has a negative expected net gain after costs in the current regime. The table is a relative ordering, not a buy list.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SKHY | LONG | 52.2% | -0.32 | -0.55 | -0.76 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 2.6); Valuation corroborated (PEGY/fwd-PE/EV checks); High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum; Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 2 | S | LONG | 45.8% | -0.28 | -0.50 | -0.49 | Accelerating velocity +5.6 (2 mentions/12h); ⚠ Earnings in 2d — event risk inside hold window |
| 3 | KURA | LONG | 48.8% | -0.28 | -0.50 | -0.49 | Accelerating velocity +4.0 (2 mentions/12h); ⚠ Weak fundamentals: F-score 2/9 |
| 4 | HOOD | LONG | 53.2% | -0.22 | -0.51 | -1.28 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 3.0); CIO meta-model current selection; ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Expensive PEGY (>2) |
| 5 | MRNA | LONG | 34.3% | -0.26 | -0.50 | -0.74 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 4.0); Accelerating velocity +10.8 (5 mentions/12h); ⚠ Price > Analyst Target; UNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
| 6 | COIN | LONG | 43.5% | -0.22 | -0.47 | -0.95 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 4.9); Accelerating velocity +8.8 (4 mentions/12h); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Mean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
| 7 | BE | LONG | 20.2% | -0.22 | -0.47 | -0.95 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 9.5); Accelerating velocity +14.4 (5 mentions/12h); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Mean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
Engine hit rate 43.3% over 342 scored calls (lower bound 38.1%), average net alpha -0.223%. Serving: incumbent.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
None
2026-08-25 18:03A $10.2B share placement for AI funding is a significant equity dilution event that the market is currently pricing as a high-risk capital expenditure rather than a strategic growth catalyst.
2026-08-25 05:23A $600M equity offering represents massive dilution and a signal of liquidity stress, which the market is already pricing in via a 12% drop and sympathetic sector-wide declines.
2026-08-24 13:52The release of 319 million shares creates a massive supply overhang that outweighs the theoretical valuation floor, transforming the IPO mark into a hard ceiling and triggering a liquidity crunch.
2026-08-23 23:20The market is valuing the company based on revenue streams that are being actively terminated, creating a massive valuation gap and a high probability of a significant downward correction.
2026-08-21 06:57Teledyne Technologies' acquisition of Varex Imaging Corporation (VREX) at a 52% premium provides a strong bullish catalyst, but risk-adjusted conviction is-capped to avoid treating the nominal offer price as an absolute physical floor.
2026-08-16 01:20S&P 500 deletion triggers non-discretionary passive selling pressure that typically outweighs short-term fundamental value gaps until a liquidity bottom is found.
2026-08-15 11:12A 29% plunge following a revenue guidance cut for 2026 suggests a systemic growth failure rather than a temporary dip, signaling a fundamental erosion of trust in management's execution.
2026-08-15 03:37Cerebras Systems (CBRS) experienced a significant price plunge following earnings, signaling a market rejection of its valuation and a fundamental disconnect between AI hype and actual execution.
2026-08-13 12:40A tempered outlook due to underwhelming running-shoe sales in a high-multiple growth stock is a fundamental valuation reset catalyst rather than a temporary dip.
2026-08-13 00:13Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
| Ticker | Velocity | Vol | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| COIN | +8.2 | 4 | Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong Says Crypto May Be on the Cusp of Next Bull Market, Touts 'AI-Fi' as New Opportunity |
| KURA | +7.0 | 3 | Kura Oncology CEO Buys 100,000 Shares for $1.2 Million. Does This Large Buy Bode Well for Shares in 2026? |
| BABA | +6.8 | 7 | Alibaba Drops, SoftBank Bond Sale, Bitcoin Rally |
| BE | +5.4 | 2 | Falling, Falling, Falling: Why One of Wall Street’s Biggest Ratings Agencies Expects Bloom Energy to Explode 70% Higher |
| NBIS | +4.6 | 2 | Nebius Rises 4% Despite Adding $5.75B in Convertible Debt, Snapping a Six-Session Slide |
Change in scored coverage over the last 12 hours versus the prior 12.
| BABA | -10.5 | Alibaba Drops, SoftBank Bond Sale, Bitcoin Rally |
| XPEV | -3.1 | XPeng Shares Fall After Q2 Miss as Robotics Unit Raises More Than $900 Million |
| CPRI | -3.0 | Capri Holdings stock hits 52-week low at 13.61 USD |
| NXPI | -2.8 | Why the China-Led Weakness in NXP Semiconductors Stock Could Open Doors for Speculators |
| LEVI | -2.1 | Levi’s Cybersecurity Breach Puts Apparel Industry Risks in Focus |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Information Technology | +102 | +362 | +1,418 | |
| Financials | +131 | +296 | +2,011 | |
| Materialsbearish reversal | -24 | +170 | +315 | |
| Health Care | -2 | +107 | -3 | |
| Energybearish reversal | -103 | +94 | +794 | |
| Industrialsbullish reversal | +12 | +33 | -191 | |
| Communication Services | -12 | -8 | -231 | |
| Consumer Discretionary | -15 | -115 | -781 | |
| Consumer Staples | -19 | -118 | -593 | |
| Utilities | -9 | -213 | -868 | |
| Real Estate | -62 | -608 | -1,869 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Artificial Intelligence | +101.2 | +259 | |
| Interest Rates | +96.7 | -46 | |
| Bond Market | +59.7 | +10 | |
| Capital Markets | +57.8 | +61 | |
| Commodities | -10.0 | 0 | |
| Tariffs | -20.5 | -33 | |
| Trade War | -34.2 | -42 | |
| Geopolitics | -40.2 | -49 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Theme | Sources | Conviction | |
|---|---|---|---|
| defense security | 178 | 75 | |
| financial regulation | 171 | 71 | |
| healthcare policy | 163 | 74 | |
| geopolitics | 150 | 73 | |
| transport mobility | 147 | 70 | |
| banking | 128 | 72 | |
| agriculture food | 126 | 70 | |
| monetary policy | 125 | 71 | |
| education skills | 102 | 68 | |
| energy policy | 72 | 76 |
A slower reading than the panels above. Sources counts the documents behind a theme; conviction weighs how many independent sources agree, how recent they are and how strong the signal is. Moves over weeks, not hours.
| Ticker | Company | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| LMT | Lockheed Martin | 1,042 |
| Produces defense and security systems with applications in border surveillance and immigration crime detection defense security, financial regulation, geopolitics, trade policy | ||
| BLK | BlackRock | 1,002 |
| Major asset manager with extensive regulated ETF and mutual fund offerings aligned with retail investor protection trends. banking, financial regulation, geopolitics, monetary policy | ||
| JPM | JPMorgan Chase & Co | 599 |
| Major commercial bank benefiting from rising interest rates and normalized monetary policy banking, financial regulation, monetary policy | ||
| CAT | Caterpillar | 529 |
| Manufacturer of heavy equipment for building regional manufacturing facilities in new supply chain hubs climate policy, labor markets, supply chain, trade policy | ||
| NEE | NextEra Energy | 515 |
| Leading U.S. renewable developer with focus on distributed solar/storage projects aligned with local governance trends climate policy, energy policy, financial regulation, geopolitics | ||
| SPGI | S&P Global | 510 |
| Offers credit ratings and data analytics essential for banks meeting central bank stability requirements. banking, financial regulation, oil and gas | ||
| DE | Deere & Company | 488 |
| Agricultural equipment demand grows domestically as US farm subsidies expand under protectionist policies. agriculture food, geopolitics, trade policy | ||
| PLTR | Palantir Technologies | 484 |
| Provides data analytics platforms used by government agencies for law enforcement and border security operations defense security, financial regulation, geopolitics, industrial policy | ||
| MSCI | MSCI Inc | 434 |
| Provides risk management and governance indices used by institutional investors to monitor regulatory compliance. banking, financial regulation | ||
| HDB | HDFC Bank | 427 |
| Strong capital position and digital infrastructure to capitalize on liquidity tightening banking, financial regulation, monetary policy | ||
Weight is how prominently a company features across the document corpus, with the reason for its exposure underneath. These are the names that recur in policy and regulatory material, which is a different population from the tickers moving on today's news.
Regional supply chain hubs boost manufacturing and energy infrastructure
Nations are reducing reliance on single sources like China through trade policy shifts and new production capacity. Nigeria's seven-fold petroleum export surge after Dangote refinery demonstrates regional self-sufficiency in energy, indicating that regions building local capabilities (e.g., manufacturing/energy) will gain. Consequently, sectors enabling regional infrastructure development benefit, while centralized s
Better placed: Regional manufacturing infrastructure, Emerging energy infrastructure, Regional logistics networks
More exposed: China-centric export manufacturing
Named: CAT, TTE, UNP, FOXF
What would break this: Trade policy reversals or failure of new regional capacity (e.g., Nigeria's refinery) to meet export demands would undermine the trend.
UK security enforcement surge to boost compliance tech providers
The UK is increasing enforcement resources in waste crime (Environment Agency) and immigration crime (National Crime Agency), requiring enhanced agency capacity. This drives demand for technology solutions that support environmental compliance monitoring and border surveillance systems, directly benefiting sectors providing these services while creating no clear at-risk sector as legitimate businesses gain from reduc
Better placed: environmental compliance services, border security technology
Named: PLTR, RTX, LMT
What would break this: UK government budget cuts to security agencies or ineffective enforcement leading to policy reversal within the near horizon
RBI liquidity tightening favors capital-strong banks and digital compliance firms
RBI's net absorption of ₹2.6T drains systemic liquidity, favoring banks with strong capital buffers that can capture market share from weaker peers. Stricter KYC enforcement directly benefits digital compliance solution providers as institutions face penalties for non-compliance. Retail lenders reliant on cheap deposits face margin pressure from reduced liquidity availability.
Better placed: banking sector (capital-strong), digital KYC infrastructure
More exposed: retail lending (low-margin), non-compliant financial institutions
Named: HDB, CAMS, YESB
What would break this: RBI reverses liquidity tightening, or economic downturn triggers emergency liquidity injection overriding regulatory enforcement.
Bilateral currency swaps support cross-border trade finance
RBI maintaining unchanged rates prevents increased borrowing costs for businesses, supporting stable credit conditions. Australia-China bilateral currency swap reduces FX volatility and transaction costs for direct trade between the two nations, directly benefiting financial institutions facilitating these transactions and export-oriented sectors reliant on China trade.
Better placed: cross-border trade finance, international banking services
Named: CBA.AX, WBC.AX, BHP.AX
What would break this: Global economic shock forcing rate hikes or termination of Australia-China currency swap agreement
Domestic manufacturing gains as global supply chains fragment
Protectionist policies like US tariffs and reshoring incentives reduce reliance on imports, boosting domestic production. EU's erosion of open trade increases barriers for export-dependent sectors while prioritizing local supply chains. This shifts capital toward domestically oriented infrastructure and manufacturing, pressuring multinational supply chain models.
Better placed: domestic manufacturing, supply chain localization, renewable energy infrastructure
More exposed: global supply chains, commodity exporters, multinational services
Named: CAT, INTC, BA, DE
What would break this: WTO challenges to tariffs, rapid inflation from import costs reducing policy support, or unexpected multilateral trade agreements reversing protectionism.
FDA device reclassification accelerates medtech market entry
The FDA's shift of devices from Class III (high-risk) to Class II/I (lower-risk) reduces premarket approval requirements. This lowers development costs and time-to-market for affected products, directly benefiting innovation in digital health and diagnostics. Regulatory burden reduction encourages new entrants and faster adoption of healthcare technologies without compromising safety via special controls.
Better placed: Digital health platforms, Point-of-care diagnostics, Wearable health monitors
More exposed: Regulatory consulting (Class III)
Named: MDT, ABT, DXCM, SYK
What would break this: Safety incidents linked to reduced oversight or reversal of FDA's reclassification policy would undermine the trend.
US domestic manufacturing gains from tariff-driven reshoring
Protectionist policies (tariffs on imports, reshoring incentives) increase cost of foreign goods relative to domestic alternatives. This directly boosts demand for US-made products in sectors like consumer durables and industrial equipment. Conversely, export-dependent supply chains face higher costs due to retaliatory tariffs and reduced global trade flows.
Better placed: domestic manufacturing, reshoring services, tariff-protected consumer goods
More exposed: export-oriented manufacturing, global supply chain logistics
Named: WHR, CAT, FLEX, PVH
What would break this: Policy reversal due to economic downturn or new multilateral trade agreements overriding protectionism.
RBI liquidity tightening and NBFC scrutiny pressure non-bank funding costs
The RBI's use of VRRR auctions to absorb excess liquidity reduces the overall pool of loanable funds in the banking system, which typically leads to higher borrowing costs for financial intermediaries. Since Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) rely heavily on bank borrowings and wholesale markets rather than deposits, they are more sensitive to these liquidity drains. Simultaneously, strict regulatory oversight r
Better placed: large systemic commercial banks, regulatory compliance technology providers, high-credit-rating NBFCs
More exposed: small to mid-sized NBFCs, high-leverage shadow banking entities, unsecured consumer credit lenders
Named: HDB, BAJFINANCE, SBIN, ICICI
What would break this: A significant increase in foreign portfolio investment (FPI) inflows could offset VRRR absorption, or a pivot by the RBI toward an accommodative stance to stimulate growth.
Readings drawn from the document corpus, not from price action. Each carries the case against it, because a view without a stated way to be wrong is not worth much. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell anything.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Markov Regime Engine | UP | 85% |
| Macro Factor Gate | UP | 55% |
Consensus: BULLISH
Model failed validation: out-of-sample error 0.9785% is worse than the 0.914% predict-zero baseline. Projection withheld until a weekly retrain produces a model that beats the baseline.
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 10.2% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 43% |
| Variance risk premium | +4.7 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.56% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.48% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.54% |
Premium in normal range — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.06 in-sample / 0.11 OOS, worst 0.06) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Interest Rates | 0.97 | 1.2h | CRITICAL |
| Monetary Policy | 0.97 | 10.5h | CRITICAL |
| Artificial Intelligence | 0.95 | 1.0h | CRITICAL |
| Bond Market | 0.94 | 1.5h | CRITICAL |
| Crypto & Digital Assets | 0.90 | 1.2h | CRITICAL |
| Gold & Commodities | 0.90 | 3.8h | CRITICAL |
| Semiconductors | 0.87 | 3.1h | ELEVATED |
| Biotechnology | 0.85 | 3.9h | ELEVATED |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 0 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 1,255 |
| Projected close of day | 0 |
| Daily average | 1,336 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 1.03× |
| Total in corpus | 169,735 |
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.