real time stock market sentiment dashboard
A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login, no sign-up.
Regime read: LONG · expected +2.90% ± 5.16% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.56 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Bull (89.4% posterior, +40.4%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.1344%/day and dominates. Net +0.1359%/day.
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BE | +11.5 | Industrials | 44.3 | 0.91 | 56% | What's the Deal With Nancy Pelosi and the Bloom Energy Stock Surge?profitableExtended FWD P/EMean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
| COIN | +6.7 | Financials | 64.3 | — | 16% | SoFi Rises 3% as the Stablecoin Trade Pulls Fintech Into the Crypto Bid, Coinbase Climbs 5%Extended FWD P/EMean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
| PLTR | +5.4 | Information Technology | 76.7 | 2.31 | 70% | Palantir Stock Has Surged Over 40% in a Month. What’s Fueling the Rally — and What Comes Next.profitableExtended FWD P/EExpensive PEGY (>2) |
| KURA | +3.6 | Health Care | -5.8 | — | 87% | The $1.24 Billion Reason Why Kura Oncology Stock Is Up TodayFwd P/E < 15EV/EBITDA < 10UNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
| OKTA | +3.1 | Information Technology | 31.0 | 1.24 | 76% | Okta pops 15% after topping estimates as AI threat spikes demand for identity securityprofitableExtended FWD P/E |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
NO TRADE: every ranked play has a negative expected net gain after costs in the current regime. The table is a relative ordering, not a buy list.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SKHY | LONG | 52.2% | -0.32 | -0.55 | -0.76 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 2.6); Valuation corroborated (PEGY/fwd-PE/EV checks); High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum; Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 2 | S | LONG | 45.8% | -0.28 | -0.50 | -0.49 | Accelerating velocity +5.6 (2 mentions/12h); ⚠ Earnings in 2d — event risk inside hold window |
| 3 | KURA | LONG | 48.8% | -0.28 | -0.50 | -0.49 | Accelerating velocity +4.0 (2 mentions/12h); ⚠ Weak fundamentals: F-score 2/9 |
| 4 | HOOD | LONG | 53.2% | -0.22 | -0.51 | -1.28 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 3.0); CIO meta-model current selection; ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Expensive PEGY (>2) |
| 5 | MRNA | LONG | 34.3% | -0.26 | -0.50 | -0.74 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 4.0); Accelerating velocity +10.8 (5 mentions/12h); ⚠ Price > Analyst Target; UNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
| 6 | COIN | LONG | 43.5% | -0.22 | -0.47 | -0.95 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 4.9); Accelerating velocity +8.8 (4 mentions/12h); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Mean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
| 7 | BE | LONG | 20.2% | -0.22 | -0.47 | -0.95 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 9.5); Accelerating velocity +14.4 (5 mentions/12h); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Mean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
Engine hit rate 43.3% over 342 scored calls (lower bound 38.1%), average net alpha -0.223%. Serving: incumbent.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
None
2026-08-25 18:03A $10.2B share placement for AI funding is a significant equity dilution event that the market is currently pricing as a high-risk capital expenditure rather than a strategic growth catalyst.
2026-08-25 05:23A $600M equity offering represents massive dilution and a signal of liquidity stress, which the market is already pricing in via a 12% drop and sympathetic sector-wide declines.
2026-08-24 13:52The release of 319 million shares creates a massive supply overhang that outweighs the theoretical valuation floor, transforming the IPO mark into a hard ceiling and triggering a liquidity crunch.
2026-08-23 23:20The market is valuing the company based on revenue streams that are being actively terminated, creating a massive valuation gap and a high probability of a significant downward correction.
2026-08-21 06:57Teledyne Technologies' acquisition of Varex Imaging Corporation (VREX) at a 52% premium provides a strong bullish catalyst, but risk-adjusted conviction is-capped to avoid treating the nominal offer price as an absolute physical floor.
2026-08-16 01:20S&P 500 deletion triggers non-discretionary passive selling pressure that typically outweighs short-term fundamental value gaps until a liquidity bottom is found.
2026-08-15 11:12A 29% plunge following a revenue guidance cut for 2026 suggests a systemic growth failure rather than a temporary dip, signaling a fundamental erosion of trust in management's execution.
2026-08-15 03:37Cerebras Systems (CBRS) experienced a significant price plunge following earnings, signaling a market rejection of its valuation and a fundamental disconnect between AI hype and actual execution.
2026-08-13 12:40A tempered outlook due to underwhelming running-shoe sales in a high-multiple growth stock is a fundamental valuation reset catalyst rather than a temporary dip.
2026-08-13 00:13Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
| Ticker | Velocity | Vol | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| KURA | +5.6 | 2 | The $1.24 Billion Reason Why Kura Oncology Stock Is Up Today |
| BE | +2.6 | 2 | What's the Deal With Nancy Pelosi and the Bloom Energy Stock Surge? |
Change in scored coverage over the last 12 hours versus the prior 12.
| AAOI | -5.4 | Applied Optoelectronics Has a Rare Problem Thanks to a Possible U.S. Ban on China |
| ACN | -2.9 | The Hidden Turbulence Priced Into Accenture Stock |
| BILL | -2.8 | BILL (BILL) Expanded Non-GAAP Operating Profit While Reported Business Metric Fell. Has its Efficiency Push Gone Too Far? |
| Z | -2.5 | 'Aggressive' Antitrust Settlement Unwinds $100M Zillow, Redfin Deal |
| BNTX | -2.0 | Moderna Drops 7% Despite a Fresh Wolfe Research Upgrade, BioNTech Slips |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Information Technology | +148 | +543 | +1,577 | |
| Financials | +128 | +435 | +2,018 | |
| Materials | +14 | +180 | +297 | |
| Health Care | -1 | +104 | -24 | |
| Industrials | -6 | +33 | -253 | |
| Communication Servicesbullish reversal | +6 | -7 | -238 | |
| Energybearish reversal | -94 | -27 | +813 | |
| Consumer Discretionary | -26 | -131 | -756 | |
| Consumer Staples | -16 | -137 | -604 | |
| Utilities | -35 | -243 | -884 | |
| Real Estate | -120 | -747 | -1,947 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Artificial Intelligence | +212.2 | +427 | |
| Bond Market | +33.0 | -15 | |
| Semiconductors | +30.7 | +52 | |
| Interest Rates | +29.3 | -121 | |
| Geopolitical Risk | -15.3 | -26 | |
| Geopolitical Conflict | -15.7 | -18 | |
| Oil Prices | -29.2 | -22 | |
| Inflation | -94.7 | -124 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Markov Regime Engine | UP | 86% |
| Macro Factor Gate | UP | 55% |
Consensus: BULLISH
Model failed validation: out-of-sample error 1.0014% is worse than the 0.8796% predict-zero baseline. Projection withheld until a weekly retrain produces a model that beats the baseline.
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 9.8% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 43% |
| Variance risk premium | +4.6 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.56% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.48% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.54% |
Premium in normal range — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.07 in-sample / 0.13 OOS, worst 0.07) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond Market | 0.86 | 1.4h | ELEVATED |
| Artificial Intelligence | 0.79 | 0.7h | ELEVATED |
| Interest Rates | 0.75 | 1.1h | ELEVATED |
| Oil & Gas | 0.71 | 1.4h | ELEVATED |
| Inflation | 0.68 | 1.4h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Crypto & Digital Assets | 0.65 | 0.7h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Monetary Policy | 0.63 | 16.5h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Semiconductors | 0.53 | 2.7h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 342 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 1,433 |
| Projected close of day | 1,802 |
| Daily average | 1,340 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 1.15× |
| Total in corpus | 171,510 |
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.