real time stock market sentiment dashboard
A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login, no sign-up.
Regime read: LONG · expected +2.93% ± 5.14% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.57 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Bull (90.7% posterior, +40.6%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.1370%/day and dominates. Net +0.1384%/day.
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BE | +9.5 | Industrials | 44.3 | 0.91 | 56% | Forget Bloom Energy Stock at $207 Per Share. Buy This Hydrogen-Focused ETF Instead for Just $43.profitableExtended FWD P/EMean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
| HOOD | +7.3 | Financials | 34.3 | 2.54 | 53% | Morning Minute: Robinhood Chain Levels Up as Memes and RWAs SoarprofitableExtended FWD P/EExpensive PEGY (>2) |
| COIN | +6.6 | Financials | 67.7 | — | 20% | 157-year-old Wall Street giant has a new call on Coinbase and RobinhoodExtended FWD P/EMean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
| OKTA | +6.1 | Information Technology | 37.8 | 1.24 | 97% | Okta stock hits 52-week high at 164.86 USDprofitablePrice > Analyst TargetNear 52w High |
| IREN | +5.1 | Financials | -41.0 | 3.11 | 34% | Bitcoin Price Tests $80K In 'Powerful Setup.' IREN Earnings Due.profitableFwd P/E < 15Expensive PEGY (>2)Mean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
NO TRADE: every ranked play has a negative expected net gain after costs in the current regime. The table is a relative ordering, not a buy list.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SKHY | LONG | 52.2% | -0.32 | -0.55 | -0.76 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 2.6); Valuation corroborated (PEGY/fwd-PE/EV checks); High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum; Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 2 | S | LONG | 45.8% | -0.28 | -0.50 | -0.49 | Accelerating velocity +5.6 (2 mentions/12h); ⚠ Earnings in 2d — event risk inside hold window |
| 3 | KURA | LONG | 48.8% | -0.28 | -0.50 | -0.49 | Accelerating velocity +4.0 (2 mentions/12h); ⚠ Weak fundamentals: F-score 2/9 |
| 4 | HOOD | LONG | 53.2% | -0.22 | -0.51 | -1.28 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 3.0); CIO meta-model current selection; ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Expensive PEGY (>2) |
| 5 | MRNA | LONG | 34.3% | -0.26 | -0.50 | -0.74 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 4.0); Accelerating velocity +10.8 (5 mentions/12h); ⚠ Price > Analyst Target; UNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
| 6 | COIN | LONG | 43.5% | -0.22 | -0.47 | -0.95 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 4.9); Accelerating velocity +8.8 (4 mentions/12h); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Mean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
| 7 | BE | LONG | 20.2% | -0.22 | -0.47 | -0.95 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 9.5); Accelerating velocity +14.4 (5 mentions/12h); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Mean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
Engine hit rate 43.3% over 342 scored calls (lower bound 38.1%), average net alpha -0.223%. Serving: incumbent.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
None
2026-08-25 18:03A $10.2B share placement for AI funding is a significant equity dilution event that the market is currently pricing as a high-risk capital expenditure rather than a strategic growth catalyst.
2026-08-25 05:23A $600M equity offering represents massive dilution and a signal of liquidity stress, which the market is already pricing in via a 12% drop and sympathetic sector-wide declines.
2026-08-24 13:52The release of 319 million shares creates a massive supply overhang that outweighs the theoretical valuation floor, transforming the IPO mark into a hard ceiling and triggering a liquidity crunch.
2026-08-23 23:20The market is valuing the company based on revenue streams that are being actively terminated, creating a massive valuation gap and a high probability of a significant downward correction.
2026-08-21 06:57Teledyne Technologies' acquisition of Varex Imaging Corporation (VREX) at a 52% premium provides a strong bullish catalyst, but risk-adjusted conviction is-capped to avoid treating the nominal offer price as an absolute physical floor.
2026-08-16 01:20S&P 500 deletion triggers non-discretionary passive selling pressure that typically outweighs short-term fundamental value gaps until a liquidity bottom is found.
2026-08-15 11:12A 29% plunge following a revenue guidance cut for 2026 suggests a systemic growth failure rather than a temporary dip, signaling a fundamental erosion of trust in management's execution.
2026-08-15 03:37Cerebras Systems (CBRS) experienced a significant price plunge following earnings, signaling a market rejection of its valuation and a fundamental disconnect between AI hype and actual execution.
2026-08-13 12:40A tempered outlook due to underwhelming running-shoe sales in a high-multiple growth stock is a fundamental valuation reset catalyst rather than a temporary dip.
2026-08-13 00:13Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
| Ticker | Velocity | Vol | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| IREN | +6.0 | 2 | Bitcoin Price Tests $80K In 'Powerful Setup.' IREN Earnings Due. |
| HOOD | +4.2 | 2 | Morning Minute: Robinhood Chain Levels Up as Memes and RWAs Soar |
| MRNA | +3.6 | 3 | $18,000 YOLO - MRNA 8/28 $145 strike put - did they uncure cancer overnight? |
| BE | +3.6 | 4 | Forget Bloom Energy Stock at $207 Per Share. Buy This Hydrogen-Focused ETF Instead for Just $43. |
| COIN | +2.8 | 3 | 157-year-old Wall Street giant has a new call on Coinbase and Robinhood |
Change in scored coverage over the last 12 hours versus the prior 12.
| AAOI | -4.1 | Applied Optoelectronics Has a Rare Problem Thanks to a Possible U.S. Ban on China |
| AAL | -3.6 | American Airlines Faces a Reckoning: Merger Off the Table, Turnaround Uncertain |
| RKLB | -3.3 | Rocket Lab Stock Slides 19% Over 7 Straight Down Days |
| RIVN | -3.2 | Wall Street Moves on MAA, Rivian and Design Therapeutics: One Upgrade, One Target Trim and a Biotech on Watch |
| SMA | -2.9 | Smartstop Self Storage REIT (NYSE:SMA) Downgraded by BMO Capital Markets to Market Perform |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Information Technology | +90 | +545 | +1,649 | |
| Financials | +112 | +487 | +2,018 | |
| Materials | +35 | +182 | +302 | |
| Health Care | -15 | +91 | -47 | |
| Industrials | -1 | +20 | -254 | |
| Communication Servicesbullish reversal | +7 | -13 | -252 | |
| Energybearish reversal | -45 | -45 | +816 | |
| Consumer Staples | -10 | -135 | -612 | |
| Consumer Discretionary | -34 | -148 | -774 | |
| Utilities | -34 | -242 | -887 | |
| Real Estate | -108 | -743 | -1,959 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Artificial Intelligence | +150.3 | +385 | |
| Interest Rates | +72.3 | -82 | |
| Bond Market | +42.7 | -5 | |
| Geopolitics | +22.3 | +2 | |
| Geopolitical Conflict | -16.7 | -20 | |
| Monetary Policy | -24.5 | -35 | |
| Cryptocurrency | -30.7 | +42 | |
| Inflation | -35.8 | -73 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Theme | Sources | Conviction | |
|---|---|---|---|
| defense security | 187 | 71 | |
| healthcare policy | 179 | 60 | |
| financial regulation | 161 | 71 | |
| geopolitics | 153 | 76 | |
| transport mobility | 153 | 68 | |
| agriculture food | 132 | 70 | |
| monetary policy | 127 | 77 | |
| banking | 119 | 72 | |
| education skills | 107 | 67 | |
| trade policy | 76 | 73 |
A slower reading than the panels above. Sources counts the documents behind a theme; conviction weighs how many independent sources agree, how recent they are and how strong the signal is. Moves over weeks, not hours.
| Ticker | Company | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| BLK | BlackRock | 989 |
| Major asset manager with extensive regulated ETF and mutual fund offerings aligned with retail investor protection trends. banking, financial regulation, geopolitics, monetary policy | ||
| LMT | Lockheed Martin | 863 |
| Development of AI-driven military weapons subject to binding controls defense security, financial regulation, geopolitics, trade policy | ||
| NEE | NextEra Energy | 762 |
| Major utility with renewable infrastructure projects reliant on stable long-term financing. climate policy, energy policy, financial regulation, geopolitics | ||
| JPM | JPMorgan Chase & Co | 671 |
| Major bank with compressed net interest margins due to extended low-rate environment from stable core inflation policy. banking, financial regulation, monetary policy | ||
| PLTR | Palantir Technologies | 625 |
| AI-driven data analytics for conflict monitoring and early warning systems defense security, financial regulation, geopolitics, industrial policy | ||
| DE | Deere & Company | 550 |
| Agricultural equipment demand grows domestically as US farm subsidies expand under protectionist policies. agriculture food, geopolitics, trade policy | ||
| SPGI | S&P Global | 501 |
| Offers credit ratings and data analytics essential for banks meeting central bank stability requirements. banking, financial regulation, oil and gas | ||
| HSBA | HSBC Holdings | 458 |
| Faces significant capital expenditure to modernize legacy back-office systems to meet new regulatory and speed standards. banking, financial regulation, monetary policy, trade policy | ||
| HDB | HDFC Bank | 446 |
| Major systemic lender that manages liquidity via RBI auctions and provides funding to NBFCs. banking, financial regulation, monetary policy | ||
| CAT | Caterpillar | 435 |
| Manufacturer of heavy equipment for building regional manufacturing facilities in new supply chain hubs climate policy, labor markets, supply chain, trade policy | ||
Weight is how prominently a company features across the document corpus, with the reason for its exposure underneath. These are the names that recur in policy and regulatory material, which is a different population from the tickers moving on today's news.
Humanitarian access pressures boost security and monitoring sectors
The trend highlights weaponized maritime chokepoints, drone attacks on civilians, and AI-driven weapons as threats to humanitarian access. This increases demand for secure aid delivery systems (e.g., protected logistics routes) and real-time conflict monitoring tools to avoid danger zones. Consequently, security services for humanitarian actors and AI-based monitoring platforms gain traction. Conversely, maritime shi
Better placed: Humanitarian logistics & security, Conflict monitoring technology
More exposed: Maritime shipping (chokepoint routes), Defense contractors (AI weapons)
Named: ACM, PLTR, LMT, AI
What would break this: Rapid diplomatic resolution of conflicts or failure to implement binding controls on AI weapons would reduce demand for security services and monitoring tools while alleviating pressure on defense contractors.
Regional supply chain hubs boost manufacturing and energy infrastructure
Nations are reducing reliance on single sources like China through trade policy shifts and new production capacity. Nigeria's seven-fold petroleum export surge after Dangote refinery demonstrates regional self-sufficiency in energy, indicating that regions building local capabilities (e.g., manufacturing/energy) will gain. Consequently, sectors enabling regional infrastructure development benefit, while centralized s
Better placed: Regional manufacturing infrastructure, Emerging energy infrastructure, Regional logistics networks
More exposed: China-centric export manufacturing
Named: CAT, TTE, UNP, FOXF
What would break this: Trade policy reversals or failure of new regional capacity (e.g., Nigeria's refinery) to meet export demands would undermine the trend.
UK security enforcement surge to boost compliance tech providers
The UK is increasing enforcement resources in waste crime (Environment Agency) and immigration crime (National Crime Agency), requiring enhanced agency capacity. This drives demand for technology solutions that support environmental compliance monitoring and border surveillance systems, directly benefiting sectors providing these services while creating no clear at-risk sector as legitimate businesses gain from reduc
Better placed: environmental compliance services, border security technology
Named: PLTR, RTX, LMT
What would break this: UK government budget cuts to security agencies or ineffective enforcement leading to policy reversal within the near horizon
Bilateral currency swaps support cross-border trade finance
RBI maintaining unchanged rates prevents increased borrowing costs for businesses, supporting stable credit conditions. Australia-China bilateral currency swap reduces FX volatility and transaction costs for direct trade between the two nations, directly benefiting financial institutions facilitating these transactions and export-oriented sectors reliant on China trade.
Better placed: cross-border trade finance, international banking services
Named: CBA.AX, WBC.AX, BHP.AX
What would break this: Global economic shock forcing rate hikes or termination of Australia-China currency swap agreement
Domestic manufacturing gains as global supply chains fragment
Protectionist policies like US tariffs and reshoring incentives reduce reliance on imports, boosting domestic production. EU's erosion of open trade increases barriers for export-dependent sectors while prioritizing local supply chains. This shifts capital toward domestically oriented infrastructure and manufacturing, pressuring multinational supply chain models.
Better placed: domestic manufacturing, supply chain localization, renewable energy infrastructure
More exposed: global supply chains, commodity exporters, multinational services
Named: CAT, INTC, BA, DE
What would break this: WTO challenges to tariffs, rapid inflation from import costs reducing policy support, or unexpected multilateral trade agreements reversing protectionism.
US domestic manufacturing gains from tariff-driven reshoring
Protectionist policies (tariffs on imports, reshoring incentives) increase cost of foreign goods relative to domestic alternatives. This directly boosts demand for US-made products in sectors like consumer durables and industrial equipment. Conversely, export-dependent supply chains face higher costs due to retaliatory tariffs and reduced global trade flows.
Better placed: domestic manufacturing, reshoring services, tariff-protected consumer goods
More exposed: export-oriented manufacturing, global supply chain logistics
Named: WHR, CAT, FLEX, PVH
What would break this: Policy reversal due to economic downturn or new multilateral trade agreements overriding protectionism.
RBI liquidity tightening and NBFC scrutiny pressure non-bank funding costs
The RBI's use of VRRR auctions to absorb excess liquidity reduces the overall pool of loanable funds in the banking system, which typically leads to higher borrowing costs for financial intermediaries. Since Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) rely heavily on bank borrowings and wholesale markets rather than deposits, they are more sensitive to these liquidity drains. Simultaneously, strict regulatory oversight r
Better placed: large systemic commercial banks, regulatory compliance technology providers, high-credit-rating NBFCs
More exposed: small to mid-sized NBFCs, high-leverage shadow banking entities, unsecured consumer credit lenders
Named: HDB, BAJFINANCE, SBIN, ICICI
What would break this: A significant increase in foreign portfolio investment (FPI) inflows could offset VRRR absorption, or a pivot by the RBI toward an accommodative stance to stimulate growth.
Defense tech and air defense sectors gain from Ukraine aid surge
The trend explicitly cites accelerating military aid, air defense upgrades, and AI-enabled capability development. UK-led Defence AI partnerships directly increase demand for advanced security technologies. This drives investment toward specialized defense systems and AI integration, benefiting relevant sectors while sanctions pressure Russian energy exports.
Better placed: air defense systems, defense AI technology, military logistics
More exposed: Russian energy exports, European utilities dependent on Russian gas
Named: LMT, RTX, NOC, PLTR
What would break this: Collapse of international support due to political shifts; Russia achieving military victory reducing aid needs; sanctions easing or being lifted on Russian energy exports
Readings drawn from the document corpus, not from price action. Each carries the case against it, because a view without a stated way to be wrong is not worth much. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell anything.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Markov Regime Engine | UP | 87% |
| Macro Factor Gate | UP | 55% |
Consensus: BULLISH
Model failed validation: out-of-sample error 1.0014% is worse than the 0.8796% predict-zero baseline. Projection withheld until a weekly retrain produces a model that beats the baseline.
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 9.6% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 41% |
| Variance risk premium | +4.8 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.55% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.48% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.54% |
Premium in normal range — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.07 in-sample / 0.13 OOS, worst 0.07) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond Market | 0.87 | 1.4h | ELEVATED |
| Artificial Intelligence | 0.74 | 0.7h | ELEVATED |
| Inflation | 0.70 | 1.6h | ELEVATED |
| Oil & Gas | 0.69 | 1.4h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Interest Rates | 0.69 | 1.0h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Crypto & Digital Assets | 0.61 | 0.6h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Monetary Policy | 0.54 | 34.1h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Market Volatility | 0.52 | 1.5h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 876 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 1,433 |
| Projected close of day | 1,447 |
| Daily average | 1,344 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 1.07× |
| Total in corpus | 172,044 |
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.