real time stock market sentiment dashboard
A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login, no sign-up.
Regime read: LONG · expected +2.96% ± 5.12% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.58 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Bull (89.2% posterior, +40.8%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.1358%/day and dominates. Net +0.1377%/day.
Same hours, earlier readings — the fastest way to see whether today is unusual.
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OKTA | +12.2 | Information Technology | 38.0 | 1.64 | 92% | Okta (OKTA) Grew Remaining Performance Obligations 17% While Revenue Rose 11%. Is the Platform Reaccelerating?profitableNear 52w HighExtended FWD P/E |
| DG | +6.7 | Consumer Staples | 15.0 | 1.49 | 44% | Dollar General (DG) Increased Traffic 2% and Expanded Gross Margin. How Much Improvement Was Temporary?profitableFwd P/E < 15 |
| HOOD | +6.2 | Financials | 31.8 | 2.49 | 45% | Coinbase and Robinhood Rally as Bitcoin Marches Toward Its Best Week in MonthsprofitableExtended FWD P/EExpensive PEGY (>2) |
| ULTA | +6.0 | Consumer Discretionary | 16.1 | 1.88 | 27% | Ulta Beauty Stock Is Down Today. Now Could Be a Good Time to Buy.profitable |
| BE | +5.1 | Industrials | 42.8 | 0.91 | 54% | Nancy Pelosi Just Bet $12 Million on Bloom Energy. Here’s What’s Behind Her Vote of Confidence.profitableExtended FWD P/E |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
NO TRADE: every ranked play has a negative expected net gain after costs in the current regime. The table is a relative ordering, not a buy list.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SKHY | LONG | 52.2% | -0.32 | -0.55 | -0.76 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 2.6); Valuation corroborated (PEGY/fwd-PE/EV checks); High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum; Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 2 | S | LONG | 45.8% | -0.28 | -0.50 | -0.49 | Accelerating velocity +5.6 (2 mentions/12h); ⚠ Earnings in 2d — event risk inside hold window |
| 3 | KURA | LONG | 48.8% | -0.28 | -0.50 | -0.49 | Accelerating velocity +4.0 (2 mentions/12h); ⚠ Weak fundamentals: F-score 2/9 |
| 4 | HOOD | LONG | 53.2% | -0.22 | -0.51 | -1.28 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 3.0); CIO meta-model current selection; ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Expensive PEGY (>2) |
| 5 | MRNA | LONG | 34.3% | -0.26 | -0.50 | -0.74 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 4.0); Accelerating velocity +10.8 (5 mentions/12h); ⚠ Price > Analyst Target; UNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
| 6 | COIN | LONG | 43.5% | -0.22 | -0.47 | -0.95 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 4.9); Accelerating velocity +8.8 (4 mentions/12h); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Mean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
| 7 | BE | LONG | 20.2% | -0.22 | -0.47 | -0.95 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 9.5); Accelerating velocity +14.4 (5 mentions/12h); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Mean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
Engine hit rate 43.3% over 342 scored calls (lower bound 38.1%), average net alpha -0.223%. Serving: incumbent.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
The collapse of a $53B takeover bid is a high-conviction bearish catalyst as it removes the same valuation floor that the bull thesis relies on, signaling that sophisticated buyers have rejected the asset at that price point.
2026-08-30 08:27The removal of a speculative buyout premium creates a vacuum in the valuation, as the stock was trading on a rumor-driven floor rather than organic fundamentals.
2026-08-29 01:21VREX is a bullish catalyst due to the acquisition by Teledyne, but the majority of the premium is likely already priced in, limiting further upside potential and now shifting the risk-reward profile to an arbitrage play rather than a a growth story.
2026-08-28 06:20While Meta's settlement caps the legal risk for the sector, the asymmetry of the balance sheet risk creates an existential threat for Snap, as any similar liability would be liquidated by a fraction of the cost Meta can absorb.
2026-08-28 04:16None
2026-08-25 18:03A $10.2B share placement for AI funding is a significant equity dilution event that the market is currently pricing as a high-risk capital expenditure rather than a strategic growth catalyst.
2026-08-25 05:23A $600M equity offering represents massive dilution and a signal of liquidity stress, which the market is already pricing in via a 12% drop and sympathetic sector-wide declines.
2026-08-24 13:52The release of 319 million shares creates a massive supply overhang that outweighs the theoretical valuation floor, transforming the IPO mark into a hard ceiling and triggering a liquidity crunch.
2026-08-23 23:20The market is valuing the company based on revenue streams that are being actively terminated, creating a massive valuation gap and a high probability of a significant downward correction.
2026-08-21 06:57S&P 500 deletion triggers non-discretionary passive selling pressure that typically outweighs short-term fundamental value gaps until a liquidity bottom is found.
2026-08-15 11:12Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
| Ticker | Velocity | Vol | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| UPS | +7.0 | 2 | FedEx Corporation (FDX) is Growing Faster, but Could United Parcel (UPS) Have More Margin Upside? |
| COIN | +6.6 | 3 | Coinbase and Robinhood Rally as Bitcoin Marches Toward Its Best Week in Months |
| RVMD | +6.0 | 2 | Incyte Corporation (INCY) vs. Revolution Medicines (RVMD): Which Biotech Stock Offers the Better KRAS Opportunity? |
| OKTA | +4.6 | 3 | Okta (OKTA) Grew Remaining Performance Obligations 17% While Revenue Rose 11%. Is the Platform Reaccelerating? |
| DAL | +4.4 | 2 | Delta Air Lines (DAL) vs. Grupo Aeroméxico (AERO): Which Airline Stock is Better Positioned after the Cross-Border Partnership Win? |
Change in scored coverage over the last 12 hours versus the prior 12.
| PYPL | -19.5 | PayPal (PYPL) Hit After Stripe, Advent Drop $53B Planned Takeover |
| WEN | -5.8 | Wendy’s Stock Has Plunged, but History Shows How It Could Come Back |
| RIVN | -4.8 | Rivian Stock Slips After Hours as CFO Claire McDonough Steps Down After Nearly 6 Years |
| VRT | -4.2 | A Wall Street Journal Report on $3 Trillion in Off-Balance-Sheet AI Commitments Recently Tanked Vertiv and GE Vernova. Here's What Actually Changed. |
| SSRM | -3.3 | Why SSR Mining Stock Flopped on Friday |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Information Technology | +19 | +662 | +2,029 | |
| Financials | +155 | +639 | +2,322 | |
| Materials | +25 | +149 | +339 | |
| Health Carebullish reversal | +35 | +77 | -49 | |
| Industrialsbullish reversal | +27 | +52 | -283 | |
| Communication Servicesbullish reversal | +19 | +36 | -223 | |
| Consumer Staplesbullish reversal | +8 | -27 | -623 | |
| Energy | +60 | -84 | +709 | |
| Consumer Discretionary | -60 | -236 | -921 | |
| Utilities | -112 | -369 | -1,059 | |
| Real Estate | -180 | -901 | -2,240 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cybersecurity | +21.2 | +23 | |
| Electric Vehicles | +17.2 | +14 | |
| Tariffs | +14.3 | -8 | |
| Supply Chain | +10.7 | +1 | |
| Bond Market | -35.2 | -65 | |
| Monetary Policy | -42.8 | -55 | |
| Artificial Intelligence | -83.3 | +246 | |
| Interest Rates | -88.8 | -223 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Theme | Sources | Conviction | |
|---|---|---|---|
| defense security | 198 | 74 | |
| healthcare policy | 186 | 69 | |
| transport mobility | 156 | 67 | |
| geopolitics | 153 | 70 | |
| financial regulation | 148 | 79 | |
| agriculture food | 126 | 69 | |
| monetary policy | 121 | 73 | |
| banking | 113 | 72 | |
| education skills | 110 | 65 | |
| infrastructure | 73 | 68 |
A slower reading than the panels above. Sources counts the documents behind a theme; conviction weighs how many independent sources agree, how recent they are and how strong the signal is. Moves over weeks, not hours.
| Ticker | Company | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| BLK | BlackRock | 910 |
| Major asset manager with extensive regulated ETF and mutual fund offerings aligned with retail investor protection trends. banking, financial regulation, monetary policy | ||
| LMT | Lockheed Martin | 865 |
| Development of AI-driven military weapons subject to binding controls defense security, financial regulation, geopolitics, trade policy | ||
| NEE | NextEra Energy | 742 |
| Major utility with renewable infrastructure projects reliant on stable long-term financing. climate policy, energy policy, financial regulation, geopolitics | ||
| JPM | JPMorgan Chase & Co | 736 |
| Major bank with compressed net interest margins due to extended low-rate environment from stable core inflation policy. banking, financial regulation, monetary policy | ||
| PLTR | Palantir Technologies | 637 |
| AI-driven data analytics for conflict monitoring and early warning systems defense security, financial regulation, geopolitics, industrial policy | ||
| SPGI | S&P Global | 554 |
| Provides regulatory compliance data and analytics tools for financial institutions banking, financial regulation, oil and gas | ||
| DE | Deere & Company | 488 |
| Agricultural equipment demand grows domestically as US farm subsidies expand under protectionist policies. agriculture food, geopolitics, trade policy | ||
| HSBA | HSBC Holdings | 451 |
| Faces significant capital expenditure to modernize legacy back-office systems to meet new regulatory and speed standards. banking, financial regulation, monetary policy, trade policy | ||
| RTX | Raytheon Technologies | 433 |
| Develops surveillance systems including border control technology for immigration enforcement defense security, geopolitics, transport mobility | ||
| CAT | Caterpillar | 428 |
| Manufacturer of heavy equipment for building regional manufacturing facilities in new supply chain hubs climate policy, labor markets, supply chain, trade policy | ||
Weight is how prominently a company features across the document corpus, with the reason for its exposure underneath. These are the names that recur in policy and regulatory material, which is a different population from the tickers moving on today's news.
RBI tightness benefits banking, pressures real estate and infra
The RBI's sustained liquidity absorption via OMOs reduces money supply, pushing up short-term interest rates. This improves banks' net interest margins (benefiting banking) while increasing borrowing costs for debt-dependent sectors like real estate development and infrastructure construction, which face higher financing expenses and reduced project viability.
Better placed: banking
More exposed: real estate development, infrastructure construction
Named: HDFCBANK.NS, DLF.NS, LT.NS
What would break this: RBI actions fail to control inflation, triggering economic slowdown and increased loan defaults.
Humanitarian access pressures boost security and monitoring sectors
The trend highlights weaponized maritime chokepoints, drone attacks on civilians, and AI-driven weapons as threats to humanitarian access. This increases demand for secure aid delivery systems (e.g., protected logistics routes) and real-time conflict monitoring tools to avoid danger zones. Consequently, security services for humanitarian actors and AI-based monitoring platforms gain traction. Conversely, maritime shi
Better placed: Humanitarian logistics & security, Conflict monitoring technology
More exposed: Maritime shipping (chokepoint routes), Defense contractors (AI weapons)
Named: ACM, PLTR, LMT, AI
What would break this: Rapid diplomatic resolution of conflicts or failure to implement binding controls on AI weapons would reduce demand for security services and monitoring tools while alleviating pressure on defense contractors.
Regional supply chain hubs boost manufacturing and energy infrastructure
Nations are reducing reliance on single sources like China through trade policy shifts and new production capacity. Nigeria's seven-fold petroleum export surge after Dangote refinery demonstrates regional self-sufficiency in energy, indicating that regions building local capabilities (e.g., manufacturing/energy) will gain. Consequently, sectors enabling regional infrastructure development benefit, while centralized s
Better placed: Regional manufacturing infrastructure, Emerging energy infrastructure, Regional logistics networks
More exposed: China-centric export manufacturing
Named: CAT, TTE, UNP, FOXF
What would break this: Trade policy reversals or failure of new regional capacity (e.g., Nigeria's refinery) to meet export demands would undermine the trend.
UK security enforcement surge to boost compliance tech providers
The UK is increasing enforcement resources in waste crime (Environment Agency) and immigration crime (National Crime Agency), requiring enhanced agency capacity. This drives demand for technology solutions that support environmental compliance monitoring and border surveillance systems, directly benefiting sectors providing these services while creating no clear at-risk sector as legitimate businesses gain from reduc
Better placed: environmental compliance services, border security technology
Named: PLTR, RTX, LMT
What would break this: UK government budget cuts to security agencies or ineffective enforcement leading to policy reversal within the near horizon
Bilateral currency swaps support cross-border trade finance
RBI maintaining unchanged rates prevents increased borrowing costs for businesses, supporting stable credit conditions. Australia-China bilateral currency swap reduces FX volatility and transaction costs for direct trade between the two nations, directly benefiting financial institutions facilitating these transactions and export-oriented sectors reliant on China trade.
Better placed: cross-border trade finance, international banking services
Named: CBA.AX, WBC.AX, BHP.AX
What would break this: Global economic shock forcing rate hikes or termination of Australia-China currency swap agreement
Domestic manufacturing gains as global supply chains fragment
Protectionist policies like US tariffs and reshoring incentives reduce reliance on imports, boosting domestic production. EU's erosion of open trade increases barriers for export-dependent sectors while prioritizing local supply chains. This shifts capital toward domestically oriented infrastructure and manufacturing, pressuring multinational supply chain models.
Better placed: domestic manufacturing, supply chain localization, renewable energy infrastructure
More exposed: global supply chains, commodity exporters, multinational services
Named: CAT, INTC, BA, DE
What would break this: WTO challenges to tariffs, rapid inflation from import costs reducing policy support, or unexpected multilateral trade agreements reversing protectionism.
US domestic manufacturing gains from tariff-driven reshoring
Protectionist policies (tariffs on imports, reshoring incentives) increase cost of foreign goods relative to domestic alternatives. This directly boosts demand for US-made products in sectors like consumer durables and industrial equipment. Conversely, export-dependent supply chains face higher costs due to retaliatory tariffs and reduced global trade flows.
Better placed: domestic manufacturing, reshoring services, tariff-protected consumer goods
More exposed: export-oriented manufacturing, global supply chain logistics
Named: WHR, CAT, FLEX, PVH
What would break this: Policy reversal due to economic downturn or new multilateral trade agreements overriding protectionism.
RBI liquidity tightening and NBFC scrutiny pressure non-bank funding costs
The RBI's use of VRRR auctions to absorb excess liquidity reduces the overall pool of loanable funds in the banking system, which typically leads to higher borrowing costs for financial intermediaries. Since Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) rely heavily on bank borrowings and wholesale markets rather than deposits, they are more sensitive to these liquidity drains. Simultaneously, strict regulatory oversight r
Better placed: large systemic commercial banks, regulatory compliance technology providers, high-credit-rating NBFCs
More exposed: small to mid-sized NBFCs, high-leverage shadow banking entities, unsecured consumer credit lenders
Named: HDB, BAJFINANCE, SBIN, ICICI
What would break this: A significant increase in foreign portfolio investment (FPI) inflows could offset VRRR absorption, or a pivot by the RBI toward an accommodative stance to stimulate growth.
Readings drawn from the document corpus, not from price action. Each carries the case against it, because a view without a stated way to be wrong is not worth much. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell anything.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Markov Regime Engine | UP | 88% |
| Macro Factor Gate | UP | 55% |
Consensus: BULLISH
Model failed validation: out-of-sample error 1.0178% is worse than the 0.9339% predict-zero baseline. Projection withheld until a weekly retrain produces a model that beats the baseline.
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 9.9% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 43% |
| Variance risk premium | +3.0 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.56% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.48% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.54% |
Premium in normal range — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.07 in-sample / 0.16 OOS, worst 0.07) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil & Gas | 0.80 | 1.4h | ELEVATED |
| Artificial Intelligence | 0.74 | 0.5h | ELEVATED |
| Inflation | 0.71 | 1.0h | ELEVATED |
| Bond Market | 0.67 | 1.6h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Interest Rates | 0.65 | 0.6h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Crypto & Digital Assets | 0.56 | 0.7h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Retirement Planning | 0.55 | 0.7h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Semiconductors | 0.48 | 0.7h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 526 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 1,054 |
| Projected close of day | 1,178 |
| Daily average | 1,340 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 0.84× |
| Total in corpus | 175,594 |
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.