real time stock market sentiment dashboard
A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login, no sign-up.
Regime read: LONG · expected +2.83% ± 5.28% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.54 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Bull (78.0% posterior, +40.8%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.1205%/day and dominates. Net +0.1222%/day.
Same hours, earlier readings — the fastest way to see whether today is unusual.
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOOD | +8.7 | Financials | 31.6 | 2.37 | 44% | Morgan Stanley Upgrades HOOD, Cites Prediction Market Boom for $150 TargetprofitableExtended FWD P/EExpensive PEGY (>2) |
| COIN | +5.7 | Financials | 62.0 | — | 14% | Coinbase And Webull Join Forces In CanadaExtended FWD P/EMean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
| PLTR | +4.5 | Information Technology | 77.7 | 2.49 | 73% | Say No to Tokenmaxxing. How Alex Karp’s War on the ‘Token Industrial Complex’ Is Fueling the Next NVDA and PLTR Bull Run.profitableExtended FWD P/EExpensive PEGY (>2) |
| ESTC | +3.5 | Information Technology | 23.4 | 1.37 | 76% | Elastic Beat and Raised Guidance. Wall Street Says One Quarter Isn’t Enough.profitableEV/EBITDA < 10 |
| OKTA | +3.2 | Information Technology | 38.0 | 1.37 | 92% | Okta Stock Just Got a New Street-High Price TargetprofitableNear 52w HighExtended FWD P/E |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
NO TRADE: every ranked play has a negative expected net gain after costs in the current regime. The table is a relative ordering, not a buy list.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PLTR | LONG | 60.3% | -0.24 | -0.53 | -0.85 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 4.5); Accelerating velocity +2.7 (2 mentions/12h); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Expensive PEGY (>2); Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 2 | ESTC | LONG | 41.3% | -0.30 | -0.56 | -0.55 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 3.5); Accelerating velocity +5.0 (2 mentions/12h) |
| 3 | OKTA | LONG | 42.1% | -0.24 | -0.53 | -0.85 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 3.3); Accelerating velocity +5.0 (2 mentions/12h); ⚠ Near 52w High; Extended FWD P/E; Quality: F-score 7/9 |
| 4 | KALU | LONG | 40.9% | -0.45 | -0.66 | +0.13 | High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum; Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 5 | S | LONG | 29.4% | -0.33 | -0.56 | -0.23 | Accelerating velocity +6.4 (2 mentions/12h) |
| 6 | APO | LONG | 37.4% | -0.45 | -0.66 | +0.13 | High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum |
| 7 | KKR | LONG | 37.4% | -0.45 | -0.66 | +0.13 | High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum |
| 8 | COIN | LONG | 38.1% | -0.24 | -0.53 | -0.85 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 5.7); Accelerating velocity +11.0 (5 mentions/12h); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Mean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
Engine hit rate 44.0% over 366 scored calls (lower bound 39.0%), average net alpha -0.173%. Serving: incumbent.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
The loss of a $53 billion safety net represents a significant removal of liquidity and financial cushioning, exposing the company to competitive pressures and lack of innovation, which the market typically views as a a catastrophic removal of life support rather than a strategic pivot.
2026-08-30 20:02The removal of a speculative buyout premium creates a vacuum in the valuation, as the stock was trading on a rumor-driven floor rather than organic fundamentals.
2026-08-29 01:21VREX is a bullish catalyst due to the acquisition by Teledyne, but the majority of the premium is likely already priced in, limiting further upside potential and now shifting the risk-reward profile to an arbitrage play rather than a a growth story.
2026-08-28 06:20While Meta's settlement caps the legal risk for the sector, the asymmetry of the balance sheet risk creates an existential threat for Snap, as any similar liability would be liquidated by a fraction of the cost Meta can absorb.
2026-08-28 04:16None
2026-08-25 18:03A $10.2B share placement for AI funding is a significant equity dilution event that the market is currently pricing as a high-risk capital expenditure rather than a strategic growth catalyst.
2026-08-25 05:23A $600M equity offering represents massive dilution and a signal of liquidity stress, which the market is already pricing in via a 12% drop and sympathetic sector-wide declines.
2026-08-24 13:52The release of 319 million shares creates a massive supply overhang that outweighs the theoretical valuation floor, transforming the IPO mark into a hard ceiling and triggering a liquidity crunch.
2026-08-23 23:20The market is valuing the company based on revenue streams that are being actively terminated, creating a massive valuation gap and a high probability of a significant downward correction.
2026-08-21 06:57Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
| Ticker | Velocity | Vol | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| COIN | +7.4 | 4 | Coinbase And Webull Join Forces In Canada |
| S | +6.4 | 2 | SentinelOne’s ARR Guidance Just Moved From Low- to Mid-Single Digits. Scotiabank Says That’s the Real Signal. |
| ESTC | +5.0 | 2 | Elastic Beat and Raised Guidance. Wall Street Says One Quarter Isn’t Enough. |
| OKTA | +5.0 | 2 | Okta Stock Just Got a New Street-High Price Target |
| PLTR | +2.7 | 2 | Palantir CEO Alex Karp backs ousted Ukraine defense minister's new defense tech startup |
Change in scored coverage over the last 12 hours versus the prior 12.
| PYPL | -3.2 | PayPal Stock's Real Risk Is Not How Far It Falls |
| PINS | -2.7 | Pinterest CFO exit puts spotlight on growth |
| CPRI | -2.2 | Capri Holdings stock hits 52-week low at 13.0 USD |
| ENR | -2.1 | Why is Energizer stock crashing today? |
| RIVN | -1.9 | CFO Turnover at AT&T, Caterpillar, and Pfizer Sparked Rallies. Here’s Why Rivian’s Didn’t. |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy | +462 | +881 | +1,515 | |
| Financials | +42 | +630 | +2,042 | |
| Information Technology | +88 | +497 | +2,058 | |
| Materials | +28 | +129 | +352 | |
| Health Care | +58 | +99 | +44 | |
| Communication Servicesbullish reversal | +40 | +98 | -93 | |
| Consumer Staplesbullish reversal | +22 | +7 | -599 | |
| Industrials | -26 | -22 | -319 | |
| Consumer Discretionary | -174 | -491 | -1,167 | |
| Utilities | -184 | -643 | -1,274 | |
| Real Estate | -354 | -1,184 | -2,555 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil Prices | +142.3 | +170 | |
| Cryptocurrency | +21.3 | +60 | |
| Tokenization | +21.3 | +38 | |
| FinTech | +20.7 | +40 | |
| Bond Yields | -95.7 | -101 | |
| Bond Market | -97.0 | -126 | |
| Inflation | -126.0 | -215 | |
| Interest Rates | -399.2 | -575 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Theme | Sources | Conviction | |
|---|---|---|---|
| defense security | 187 | 81 | |
| healthcare policy | 176 | 67 | |
| transport mobility | 153 | 65 | |
| financial regulation | 151 | 69 | |
| geopolitics | 143 | 69 | |
| monetary policy | 128 | 71 | |
| agriculture food | 125 | 68 | |
| banking | 110 | 67 | |
| education skills | 106 | 67 | |
| infrastructure | 69 | 66 |
A slower reading than the panels above. Sources counts the documents behind a theme; conviction weighs how many independent sources agree, how recent they are and how strong the signal is. Moves over weeks, not hours.
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Short-term | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LMT | Lockheed Martin | 914 | — | — |
| Defense contractor supplying security systems for infrastructure protection in volatile regions defense security, financial regulation, geopolitics, trade policy | ||||
| BLK | BlackRock | 821 | — | — |
| Its Aladdin platform is a primary tool for institutional risk management amid monetary policy shifts. banking, financial regulation, monetary policy | ||||
| NEE | NextEra Energy | 767 | — | — |
| Major utility with renewable infrastructure projects reliant on stable long-term financing. climate policy, energy policy, financial regulation, geopolitics | ||||
| JPM | JPMorgan Chase & Co | 637 | — | — |
| Major bank with compressed net interest margins due to extended low-rate environment from stable core inflation policy. banking, financial regulation, monetary policy | ||||
| SPGI | S&P Global | 541 | — | — |
| Provides regulatory compliance data and analytics tools for financial institutions banking, financial regulation, oil and gas | ||||
| DE | Deere & Company | 477 | — | — |
| Agricultural equipment demand grows domestically as US farm subsidies expand under protectionist policies. agriculture food, geopolitics, trade policy | ||||
| PLTR | Palantir Technologies | 456 | +4.5 | aligned |
| AI-driven data analytics for conflict monitoring and early warning systems defense security, financial regulation, geopolitics, industrial policy | ||||
| HSBA | HSBC Holdings | 430 | — | — |
| Faces significant capital expenditure to modernize legacy back-office systems to meet new regulatory and speed standards. banking, financial regulation, monetary policy, trade policy | ||||
| MSCI | MSCI Inc | 418 | — | — |
| Provides risk management and governance indices used by institutional investors to monitor regulatory compliance. banking, financial regulation | ||||
| HDB | HDFC Bank | 406 | — | — |
| Major systemic lender that manages liquidity via RBI auctions and provides funding to NBFCs. banking, financial regulation, monetary policy | ||||
Weight is how prominently a company features across the document corpus, with the reason for its exposure underneath. These are the names that recur in policy and regulatory material, which is a different population from the tickers moving on today's news. Where a name also has a current sentiment score, both are shown: aligned means they point the same way, diverging means one horizon has not caught up with the other.
Supply chain resilience drives domestic manufacturing shift
Trade policy embedding economic security prioritizes supply chain transparency and forced labor eradication (e.g., Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act), reducing reliance on opaque global networks. This pressures China-dependent sectors while benefiting resilient, domestically oriented supply chains for critical goods like semiconductors. Non-capitulatory US-China strategies accelerate nearshoring trends.
Better placed: resilient supply chains, domestic semiconductor manufacturing, ethical sourcing compliance
More exposed: China-dependent manufacturing, labor-intensive apparel, complex global sourcing
Named: INTC, TER, NKE
What would break this: Policy reversal toward free-trade agreements or weak enforcement of forced labor regulations reducing supply chain disruption pressure
Humanitarian and security sectors benefit from escalating conflicts and climate disasters
Documented evidence shows rising attacks on civilian infrastructure (hospitals in Ukraine/Haiti) and accelerating climate disasters (Nepal floods, sea-level rise). This drives demand for humanitarian logistics to deliver aid amid conflict disruptions, security services protecting critical infrastructure, and disaster-resilient infrastructure. Conversely, sectors reliant on stable supply chains (oil/gas E&P) face oper
Better placed: humanitarian aid logistics, infrastructure security services, disaster-resilient power grid
More exposed: oil/gas exploration & production, agricultural supply chains, civilian infrastructure operators
Named: DPSTF, LMT, SI, CVX, ADM
What would break this: If global conflict de-escalates rapidly or climate mitigation efforts significantly reduce disaster frequency, demand for security/humanitarian services would decline.
Regulatory clarity boosts digital payment innovation and crypto compliance
Regulators are developing frameworks to foster payment innovation while extending oversight to AI-driven tools and crypto services. Australia's A2A Payments Roadmap enables real-time interoperability, UK mandates drive bank-led innovation, and HMRC reporting rules create structured crypto compliance requirements. This reduces uncertainty for compliant digital payment providers and crypto platforms that integrate regu
Better placed: real-time payment infrastructure, crypto compliance solutions, digital wallet platforms
More exposed: legacy bank payment systems, non-compliant crypto service providers
Named: PYPL, COIN, FIT, MA
What would break this: Overly restrictive regulations stifling innovation (e.g., excessive transaction fees), or global regulatory fragmentation causing compliance costs to exceed market growth potential.
Humanitarian access pressures boost security and monitoring sectors
The trend highlights weaponized maritime chokepoints, drone attacks on civilians, and AI-driven weapons as threats to humanitarian access. This increases demand for secure aid delivery systems (e.g., protected logistics routes) and real-time conflict monitoring tools to avoid danger zones. Consequently, security services for humanitarian actors and AI-based monitoring platforms gain traction. Conversely, maritime shi
Better placed: Humanitarian logistics & security, Conflict monitoring technology
More exposed: Maritime shipping (chokepoint routes), Defense contractors (AI weapons)
Named: ACM, PLTR, LMT, AI
What would break this: Rapid diplomatic resolution of conflicts or failure to implement binding controls on AI weapons would reduce demand for security services and monitoring tools while alleviating pressure on defense contractors.
Regional supply chain hubs boost manufacturing and energy infrastructure
Nations are reducing reliance on single sources like China through trade policy shifts and new production capacity. Nigeria's seven-fold petroleum export surge after Dangote refinery demonstrates regional self-sufficiency in energy, indicating that regions building local capabilities (e.g., manufacturing/energy) will gain. Consequently, sectors enabling regional infrastructure development benefit, while centralized s
Better placed: Regional manufacturing infrastructure, Emerging energy infrastructure, Regional logistics networks
More exposed: China-centric export manufacturing
Named: CAT, TTE, UNP, FOXF
What would break this: Trade policy reversals or failure of new regional capacity (e.g., Nigeria's refinery) to meet export demands would undermine the trend.
Bilateral currency swaps support cross-border trade finance
RBI maintaining unchanged rates prevents increased borrowing costs for businesses, supporting stable credit conditions. Australia-China bilateral currency swap reduces FX volatility and transaction costs for direct trade between the two nations, directly benefiting financial institutions facilitating these transactions and export-oriented sectors reliant on China trade.
Better placed: cross-border trade finance, international banking services
Named: CBA.AX, WBC.AX, BHP.AX
What would break this: Global economic shock forcing rate hikes or termination of Australia-China currency swap agreement
Domestic manufacturing gains as global supply chains fragment
Protectionist policies like US tariffs and reshoring incentives reduce reliance on imports, boosting domestic production. EU's erosion of open trade increases barriers for export-dependent sectors while prioritizing local supply chains. This shifts capital toward domestically oriented infrastructure and manufacturing, pressuring multinational supply chain models.
Better placed: domestic manufacturing, supply chain localization, renewable energy infrastructure
More exposed: global supply chains, commodity exporters, multinational services
Named: CAT, INTC, BA, DE
What would break this: WTO challenges to tariffs, rapid inflation from import costs reducing policy support, or unexpected multilateral trade agreements reversing protectionism.
RBI liquidity tightening and NBFC scrutiny pressure non-bank funding costs
The RBI's use of VRRR auctions to absorb excess liquidity reduces the overall pool of loanable funds in the banking system, which typically leads to higher borrowing costs for financial intermediaries. Since Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) rely heavily on bank borrowings and wholesale markets rather than deposits, they are more sensitive to these liquidity drains. Simultaneously, strict regulatory oversight r
Better placed: large systemic commercial banks, regulatory compliance technology providers, high-credit-rating NBFCs
More exposed: small to mid-sized NBFCs, high-leverage shadow banking entities, unsecured consumer credit lenders
Named: HDB, BAJFINANCE, SBIN, ICICI
What would break this: A significant increase in foreign portfolio investment (FPI) inflows could offset VRRR absorption, or a pivot by the RBI toward an accommodative stance to stimulate growth.
Readings drawn from the document corpus, not from price action. Each carries the case against it, because a view without a stated way to be wrong is not worth much. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell anything.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Markov Regime Engine | UP | 88% |
| Macro Factor Gate | UP | 55% |
Consensus: BULLISH
Model failed validation: out-of-sample error 1.2227% is worse than the 0.828% predict-zero baseline. Projection withheld until a weekly retrain produces a model that beats the baseline.
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 10.6% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 47% |
| Variance risk premium | +5.2 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.53% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.42% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.54% |
Premium in normal range — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.07 in-sample / 0.17 OOS, worst 0.07) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Geopolitical Tension | 0.96 | 1.7h | CRITICAL |
| Oil & Gas | 0.95 | 1.6h | CRITICAL |
| Artificial Intelligence | 0.75 | 0.5h | ELEVATED |
| Interest Rates | 0.67 | 0.4h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Monetary Policy | 0.62 | 1.1h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Retirement Planning | 0.57 | 0.7h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Semiconductors | 0.56 | 1.3h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Inflation | 0.53 | 0.5h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 594 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 1,178 |
| Projected close of day | 1,771 |
| Daily average | 1,336 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 1.20× |
| Total in corpus | 179,019 |
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.