real time stock market sentiment dashboard
A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login, no sign-up.
Regime read: LONG · expected +2.83% ± 5.28% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.54 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Bull (78.0% posterior, +40.8%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.1205%/day and dominates. Net +0.1222%/day.
Same hours, earlier readings — the fastest way to see whether today is unusual.
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOOD | +7.5 | Financials | 32.6 | 1.81 | 48% | What Makes Robinhood Markets (HOOD) as an Attractive Bet?profitableExtended FWD P/E |
| SNOW | +5.9 | Information Technology | 113.1 | — | 84% | Snowflake reports Q2 earnings tonight after 47% stock rally in 2026EV/EBITDA < 10Extended FWD P/EMean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
| UBER | +5.0 | Information Technology | 17.4 | 6.38 | 30% | Uber Technologies Stock: Is UBER Underperforming the Technology Sector?profitableExpensive PEGY (>2)Mean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
| PLTR | +4.8 | Information Technology | 73.2 | 1.73 | 62% | Jim Cramer Explains Why Palantir’s Rule of 40 Dominance Proves Bears WrongprofitableExtended FWD P/E |
| SPOT | +4.1 | Communication Services | 31.0 | 1.54 | 45% | Charts show Spotify shares could soon break out, Frank Cappelleri saysprofitableExtended FWD P/E |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
NO TRADE: every ranked play has a negative expected net gain after costs in the current regime. The table is a relative ordering, not a buy list.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PLTR | LONG | 51.0% | -0.23 | -0.60 | -1.18 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 4.9); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 2 | SPOT | LONG | 51.4% | -0.23 | -0.60 | -1.18 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 4.1); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E |
| 3 | AFRM | LONG | 40.0% | -0.33 | -0.56 | -0.20 | Accelerating velocity +4.0 (3 mentions/12h) |
| 4 | GTLB | LONG | 30.0% | -0.33 | -0.56 | -0.20 | Accelerating velocity +7.2 (2 mentions/12h) |
| 5 | ASTS | LONG | 27.2% | -0.33 | -0.56 | -0.20 | Accelerating velocity +8.8 (2 mentions/12h) |
| 6 | HOOD | LONG | 30.5% | -0.23 | -0.60 | -1.18 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 7.6); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E |
| 7 | UBER | LONG | 31.9% | -0.24 | -0.54 | -0.80 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 5.1); Accelerating velocity +8.8 (5 mentions/12h); ⚠ Expensive PEGY (>2); Mean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
| 8 | KALU | LONG | 26.7% | -0.45 | -0.67 | +0.17 | High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum; Quality: F-score 8/9 |
Engine hit rate 44.0% over 366 scored calls (lower bound 39.0%), average net alpha -0.173%. Serving: incumbent.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
Strong earnings beat and AI coding momentum provide a clear bullish catalyst, but conviction is tempered by the high valuation multiples typically associated with Snowflake's AI-driven growth narrative.
2026-09-02 21:13The loss of a $53 billion safety net represents a significant removal of liquidity and financial cushioning, exposing the company to competitive pressures and lack of innovation, which the market typically views as a a catastrophic removal of life support rather than a strategic pivot.
2026-08-30 20:02The removal of a speculative buyout premium creates a vacuum in the valuation, as the stock was trading on a rumor-driven floor rather than organic fundamentals.
2026-08-29 01:21VREX is a bullish catalyst due to the acquisition by Teledyne, but the majority of the premium is likely already priced in, limiting further upside potential and now shifting the risk-reward profile to an arbitrage play rather than a a growth story.
2026-08-28 06:20While Meta's settlement caps the legal risk for the sector, the asymmetry of the balance sheet risk creates an existential threat for Snap, as any similar liability would be liquidated by a fraction of the cost Meta can absorb.
2026-08-28 04:16None
2026-08-25 18:03A $10.2B share placement for AI funding is a significant equity dilution event that the market is currently pricing as a high-risk capital expenditure rather than a strategic growth catalyst.
2026-08-25 05:23A $600M equity offering represents massive dilution and a signal of liquidity stress, which the market is already pricing in via a 12% drop and sympathetic sector-wide declines.
2026-08-24 13:52The release of 319 million shares creates a massive supply overhang that outweighs the theoretical valuation floor, transforming the IPO mark into a hard ceiling and triggering a liquidity crunch.
2026-08-23 23:20The market is valuing the company based on revenue streams that are being actively terminated, creating a massive valuation gap and a high probability of a significant downward correction.
2026-08-21 06:57Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
| Ticker | Velocity | Vol | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| SNOW | +9.8 | 7 | Snowflake reports Q2 earnings tonight after 47% stock rally in 2026 |
| UBER | +8.8 | 5 | Uber Technologies Stock: Is UBER Underperforming the Technology Sector? |
| ASTS | +8.8 | 2 | AST SpaceMobile Stock Soars on New Buy Call |
| AFRM | +4.0 | 3 | How Affirm leverages 0% interest |
| SPOT | +3.4 | 2 | Charts show Spotify shares could soon break out, Frank Cappelleri says |
Change in scored coverage over the last 12 hours versus the prior 12.
| MTD | -7.1 | Redburn starts Mettler-Toledo at Sell, sees valuation outpacing growth |
| AU | -2.6 | AngloGold Ashanti shares fall 4.9% as gold prices decline |
| META | -2.5 | Apple and Meta Struggled in August But Which Looks Stronger in September? |
| MDB | -2.2 | Jim Cramer says investors aren't ditching tech — they just want cheaper stocks |
| EXEL | -2.0 | Cancer Stock Breaks Out To Highs; Key FDA Action On Watch |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy | +432 | +1,174 | +1,828 | |
| Financials | +2 | +557 | +1,992 | |
| Information Technology | +146 | +490 | +2,090 | |
| Materials | +54 | +139 | +376 | |
| Health Care | +54 | +136 | +80 | |
| Communication Servicesbullish reversal | +42 | +124 | -82 | |
| Consumer Staplesbullish reversal | +26 | +36 | -561 | |
| Industrials | -32 | -73 | -359 | |
| Consumer Discretionary | -122 | -538 | -1,238 | |
| Utilities | -192 | -730 | -1,372 | |
| Real Estate | -410 | -1,314 | -2,755 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil Prices | +97.0 | +142 | |
| Artificial Intelligence | +26.3 | +291 | |
| Cryptocurrency | +25.5 | +65 | |
| FinTech | +23.2 | +42 | |
| Geopolitical Tension | -69.2 | -105 | |
| Inflation | -94.3 | -181 | |
| Bond Yields | -113.8 | -126 | |
| Interest Rates | -294.3 | -504 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Markov Regime Engine | UP | 88% |
| Macro Factor Gate | UP | 55% |
Consensus: BULLISH
Model failed validation: out-of-sample error 1.1362% is worse than the 0.7113% predict-zero baseline. Projection withheld until a weekly retrain produces a model that beats the baseline.
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 11.0% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 51% |
| Variance risk premium | +3.5 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.53% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.42% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.53% |
Premium in normal range — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.07 in-sample / 0.16 OOS, worst 0.07) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Geopolitical Tension | 0.94 | 2.1h | CRITICAL |
| Oil & Gas | 0.93 | 1.9h | CRITICAL |
| Bond Market | 0.86 | 3.5h | ELEVATED |
| Interest Rates | 0.76 | 0.7h | ELEVATED |
| Artificial Intelligence | 0.75 | 0.5h | ELEVATED |
| Monetary Policy | 0.66 | 1.1h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Retirement Planning | 0.56 | 0.7h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Semiconductors | 0.55 | 1.2h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 63 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 1,475 |
| Projected close of day | 2,222 |
| Daily average | 1,333 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 1.20× |
| Total in corpus | 179,963 |
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.