real time stock market sentiment dashboard
A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login, no sign-up.
Regime read: LONG · expected +2.91% ± 5.20% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.56 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Bull (84.9% posterior, +40.8%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.1302%/day and dominates. Net +0.1317%/day.
Same hours, earlier readings — the fastest way to see whether today is unusual.
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLTR | +9.7 | Information Technology | 73.2 | 1.73 | 62% | Prediction: Palantir's Commercial Revenue Passes Its Government Revenue Before 2027, and the Stock's Growth Math Changes With It.profitableExtended FWD P/EMean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
| HOOD | +7.6 | Financials | 32.6 | 1.81 | 48% | Robinhood gets second bullish Wall Street call in two daysprofitableExtended FWD P/E |
| SNOW | +5.2 | Information Technology | 110.1 | — | 84% | Dell Stock Surges As Computer Maker Trounces EstimatesEV/EBITDA < 10Extended FWD P/EMean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
| COIN | +4.2 | Financials | 63.9 | — | 14% | Coinbase enters Canada's derivatives market, launches BTC, ETH, SOL futuresExtended FWD P/EUNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
| UBER | +3.8 | Information Technology | 17.4 | 6.38 | 30% | Uber Technologies Stock: Is UBER Underperforming the Technology Sector?profitableExpensive PEGY (>2) |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
NO TRADE: every ranked play has a negative expected net gain after costs in the current regime. The table is a relative ordering, not a buy list.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KDP | LONG | 40.0% | -0.33 | -0.56 | -0.20 | Accelerating velocity +4.2 (2 mentions/12h); Quality: F-score 7/9 |
| 2 | UBER | LONG | 50.5% | -0.23 | -0.60 | -1.18 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 3.9); ⚠ Expensive PEGY (>2) |
| 3 | COIN | LONG | 55.2% | -0.23 | -0.60 | -1.18 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 4.2); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; UNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
| 4 | GTLB | LONG | 36.7% | -0.33 | -0.56 | -0.20 | Accelerating velocity +5.4 (2 mentions/12h) |
| 5 | SNOW | LONG | 41.9% | -0.25 | -0.56 | -0.40 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 5.2); Accelerating velocity +19.0 (6 mentions/12h); Earnings catalyst (82% PM conviction); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Mean Reversion: Euphoria (Short); ⚠ Earnings in 0d — event risk inside hold window |
| 6 | META | LONG | 27.1% | -0.24 | -0.49 | -0.45 | Accelerating velocity +8.2 (4 mentions/12h) |
| 7 | HOOD | LONG | 30.5% | -0.23 | -0.60 | -1.18 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 7.7); CIO meta-model current selection; ⚠ Extended FWD P/E |
| 8 | PLTR | LONG | 20.3% | -0.24 | -0.54 | -0.80 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 9.8); Accelerating velocity +6.7 (3 mentions/12h); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Mean Reversion: Euphoria (Short); Quality: F-score 8/9 |
Engine hit rate 44.0% over 366 scored calls (lower bound 39.0%), average net alpha -0.173%. Serving: incumbent.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
Strong earnings beat and AI coding momentum provide a clear bullish catalyst, but conviction is tempered by the high valuation multiples typically associated with Snowflake's AI-driven growth narrative.
2026-09-02 21:13The loss of a $53 billion safety net represents a significant removal of liquidity and financial cushioning, exposing the company to competitive pressures and lack of innovation, which the market typically views as a a catastrophic removal of life support rather than a strategic pivot.
2026-08-30 20:02The removal of a speculative buyout premium creates a vacuum in the valuation, as the stock was trading on a rumor-driven floor rather than organic fundamentals.
2026-08-29 01:21VREX is a bullish catalyst due to the acquisition by Teledyne, but the majority of the premium is likely already priced in, limiting further upside potential and now shifting the risk-reward profile to an arbitrage play rather than a a growth story.
2026-08-28 06:20While Meta's settlement caps the legal risk for the sector, the asymmetry of the balance sheet risk creates an existential threat for Snap, as any similar liability would be liquidated by a fraction of the cost Meta can absorb.
2026-08-28 04:16None
2026-08-25 18:03A $10.2B share placement for AI funding is a significant equity dilution event that the market is currently pricing as a high-risk capital expenditure rather than a strategic growth catalyst.
2026-08-25 05:23A $600M equity offering represents massive dilution and a signal of liquidity stress, which the market is already pricing in via a 12% drop and sympathetic sector-wide declines.
2026-08-24 13:52The release of 319 million shares creates a massive supply overhang that outweighs the theoretical valuation floor, transforming the IPO mark into a hard ceiling and triggering a liquidity crunch.
2026-08-23 23:20The market is valuing the company based on revenue streams that are being actively terminated, creating a massive valuation gap and a high probability of a significant downward correction.
2026-08-21 06:57Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
| Ticker | Velocity | Vol | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| SNOW | +19.0 | 6 | Dell Stock Surges As Computer Maker Trounces Estimates |
| META | +8.2 | 4 | Meta May Overtake Google Search This Year. That Makes Its AI Capex Harder to Dismiss |
| PLTR | +6.7 | 3 | Prediction: Palantir's Commercial Revenue Passes Its Government Revenue Before 2027, and the Stock's Growth Math Changes With It. |
| GTLB | +5.4 | 2 | William Blair upgrades GitLab to Market Perform after strong second quarter |
| KDP | +4.2 | 2 | Keurig Dr Pepper Is Selling Its Chobani Stake. Why That’s Good News for the Stock. |
Change in scored coverage over the last 12 hours versus the prior 12.
| MTD | -7.9 | Rothschild Redburn initiates Mettler-Toledo stock with sell rating |
| CRDO | -3.1 | Credo Technology Stock Falls Despite Beating Fiscal Q1 Targets |
| PYPL | -2.1 | Why the PayPal takeover fell apart |
| AU | -2.0 | AngloGold Ashanti shares fall 4.9% as gold prices decline |
| AI | -1.9 | Earnings call transcript: C3.ai beats Q1 2026 estimates, shares slip after hours |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy | +332 | +1,223 | +1,864 | |
| Financials | +36 | +611 | +2,032 | |
| Information Technology | +146 | +484 | +2,123 | |
| Health Care | +50 | +145 | +86 | |
| Materials | +44 | +136 | +388 | |
| Communication Servicesbullish reversal | +36 | +122 | -77 | |
| Consumer Staplesbullish reversal | +23 | +33 | -561 | |
| Industrials | -46 | -65 | -360 | |
| Consumer Discretionary | -92 | -531 | -1,251 | |
| Utilities | -178 | -776 | -1,413 | |
| Real Estate | -355 | -1,380 | -2,830 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Artificial Intelligence | +55.7 | +309 | |
| Cloud Computing | +33.7 | +54 | |
| Oil Prices | +28.0 | +87 | |
| FinTech | +24.5 | +45 | |
| Geopolitical Tension | -36.3 | -77 | |
| Global Markets | -74.5 | -76 | |
| Bond Yields | -87.2 | -104 | |
| Interest Rates | -194.8 | -434 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Theme | Sources | Conviction | |
|---|---|---|---|
| defense security | 197 | 76 | |
| healthcare policy | 173 | 66 | |
| transport mobility | 155 | 65 | |
| financial regulation | 150 | 69 | |
| geopolitics | 143 | 75 | |
| monetary policy | 131 | 78 | |
| agriculture food | 117 | 68 | |
| banking | 112 | 68 | |
| education skills | 103 | 66 | |
| energy policy | 71 | 71 |
A slower reading than the panels above. Sources counts the documents behind a theme; conviction weighs how many independent sources agree, how recent they are and how strong the signal is. Moves over weeks, not hours.
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Short-term | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LMT | Lockheed Martin | 864 | — | — |
| Defense contractor supplying security systems for infrastructure protection in volatile regions defense security, financial regulation, geopolitics, trade policy | ||||
| BLK | BlackRock | 817 | — | — |
| Its Aladdin platform is a primary tool for institutional risk management amid monetary policy shifts. banking, financial regulation, monetary policy | ||||
| NEE | NextEra Energy | 760 | — | — |
| Major utility with renewable infrastructure projects reliant on stable long-term financing. climate policy, energy policy, financial regulation, geopolitics | ||||
| PLTR | Palantir Technologies | 663 | +9.7 | aligned |
| Provides data integration and visibility tools used by governments to monitor supply chain security. defense security, financial regulation, geopolitics, industrial policy | ||||
| JPM | JPMorgan Chase & Co | 633 | — | — |
| Major bank with compressed net interest margins due to extended low-rate environment from stable core inflation policy. banking, financial regulation, monetary policy | ||||
| DE | Deere & Company | 476 | — | — |
| Agricultural equipment demand grows domestically as US farm subsidies expand under protectionist policies. agriculture food, geopolitics, trade policy | ||||
| MSCI | MSCI Inc | 475 | — | — |
| Provides risk management and governance indices used by institutional investors to monitor regulatory compliance. banking, financial regulation | ||||
| MUFG | Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group | 447 | — | — |
| Large Japanese bank exposed to Bank of Japan monetary base and liquidity operations. banking, financial regulation, monetary policy | ||||
| HSBA | HSBC Holdings | 427 | — | — |
| Faces significant capital expenditure to modernize legacy back-office systems to meet new regulatory and speed standards. banking, financial regulation, monetary policy, trade policy | ||||
| SPGI | S&P Global Inc | 414 | — | — |
| Offers credit ratings and data analytics essential for banks meeting central bank stability requirements. banking, financial regulation, oil and gas | ||||
Weight is how prominently a company features across the document corpus, with the reason for its exposure underneath. These are the names that recur in policy and regulatory material, which is a different population from the tickers moving on today's news. Where a name also has a current sentiment score, both are shown: aligned means they point the same way, diverging means one horizon has not caught up with the other.
Trade securitization drives demand for supply chain transparency and domestic industrial capacity
Geopolitical fragmentation and US-China tensions are shifting trade priorities from cost-optimization to security and resilience. Increased regulatory focus on forced labor and illicit imports necessitates advanced tracking and auditing capabilities. Simultaneously, tariffs and industrial policies encourage 'friend-shoring' or reshoring, increasing investment in domestic manufacturing infrastructure while pressuring
Better placed: supply chain visibility software, domestic semiconductor fabrication, customs compliance technology, industrial automation
More exposed: low-cost global sourcing models, China-centric manufacturing dependencies, traditional freight forwarding without digital integration, export-heavy industries facing tariffs
Named: PLTR, MANH, INTC, AAPL, NKE
What would break this: A significant geopolitical rapprochement between the US and China or a severe global recession that forces a return to lowest-cost procurement over security.
Credit expansion and strict RBI compliance drive demand for RegTech and cybersecurity
Accelerated credit growth (16.5%) increases transaction volumes, which inherently raises the operational risk profile of banks. The RBI's use of monetary penalties for KYC lapses creates a mandatory incentive for banks to shift from manual to automated compliance systems. Furthermore, the specific focus on cooperative bank governance and cyber-fraud mitigation opens a modernization window for legacy institutions to a
Better placed: RegTech providers, Cybersecurity firms, Digital identity verification services, Core banking software vendors
More exposed: Legacy-dependent commercial banks, Under-capitalized cooperative banks, Manual KYC processing services
Named: TCS, INFY, HDB, IBANK
What would break this: A significant contraction in credit growth or a pivot by the RBI toward lenient enforcement would reduce the urgency and budget for compliance spending.
Humanitarian and security sectors benefit from escalating conflicts and climate disasters
Documented evidence shows rising attacks on civilian infrastructure (hospitals in Ukraine/Haiti) and accelerating climate disasters (Nepal floods, sea-level rise). This drives demand for humanitarian logistics to deliver aid amid conflict disruptions, security services protecting critical infrastructure, and disaster-resilient infrastructure. Conversely, sectors reliant on stable supply chains (oil/gas E&P) face oper
Better placed: humanitarian aid logistics, infrastructure security services, disaster-resilient power grid
More exposed: oil/gas exploration & production, agricultural supply chains, civilian infrastructure operators
Named: DPSTF, LMT, SI, CVX, ADM
What would break this: If global conflict de-escalates rapidly or climate mitigation efforts significantly reduce disaster frequency, demand for security/humanitarian services would decline.
Regulatory clarity boosts digital payment innovation and crypto compliance
Regulators are developing frameworks to foster payment innovation while extending oversight to AI-driven tools and crypto services. Australia's A2A Payments Roadmap enables real-time interoperability, UK mandates drive bank-led innovation, and HMRC reporting rules create structured crypto compliance requirements. This reduces uncertainty for compliant digital payment providers and crypto platforms that integrate regu
Better placed: real-time payment infrastructure, crypto compliance solutions, digital wallet platforms
More exposed: legacy bank payment systems, non-compliant crypto service providers
Named: PYPL, COIN, FIT, MA
What would break this: Overly restrictive regulations stifling innovation (e.g., excessive transaction fees), or global regulatory fragmentation causing compliance costs to exceed market growth potential.
Humanitarian access pressures boost security and monitoring sectors
The trend highlights weaponized maritime chokepoints, drone attacks on civilians, and AI-driven weapons as threats to humanitarian access. This increases demand for secure aid delivery systems (e.g., protected logistics routes) and real-time conflict monitoring tools to avoid danger zones. Consequently, security services for humanitarian actors and AI-based monitoring platforms gain traction. Conversely, maritime shi
Better placed: Humanitarian logistics & security, Conflict monitoring technology
More exposed: Maritime shipping (chokepoint routes), Defense contractors (AI weapons)
Named: ACM, PLTR, LMT, AI
What would break this: Rapid diplomatic resolution of conflicts or failure to implement binding controls on AI weapons would reduce demand for security services and monitoring tools while alleviating pressure on defense contractors.
Regional supply chain hubs boost manufacturing and energy infrastructure
Nations are reducing reliance on single sources like China through trade policy shifts and new production capacity. Nigeria's seven-fold petroleum export surge after Dangote refinery demonstrates regional self-sufficiency in energy, indicating that regions building local capabilities (e.g., manufacturing/energy) will gain. Consequently, sectors enabling regional infrastructure development benefit, while centralized s
Better placed: Regional manufacturing infrastructure, Emerging energy infrastructure, Regional logistics networks
More exposed: China-centric export manufacturing
Named: CAT, TTE, UNP, FOXF
What would break this: Trade policy reversals or failure of new regional capacity (e.g., Nigeria's refinery) to meet export demands would undermine the trend.
Bilateral currency swaps support cross-border trade finance
RBI maintaining unchanged rates prevents increased borrowing costs for businesses, supporting stable credit conditions. Australia-China bilateral currency swap reduces FX volatility and transaction costs for direct trade between the two nations, directly benefiting financial institutions facilitating these transactions and export-oriented sectors reliant on China trade.
Better placed: cross-border trade finance, international banking services
Named: CBA.AX, WBC.AX, BHP.AX
What would break this: Global economic shock forcing rate hikes or termination of Australia-China currency swap agreement
Domestic manufacturing gains as global supply chains fragment
Protectionist policies like US tariffs and reshoring incentives reduce reliance on imports, boosting domestic production. EU's erosion of open trade increases barriers for export-dependent sectors while prioritizing local supply chains. This shifts capital toward domestically oriented infrastructure and manufacturing, pressuring multinational supply chain models.
Better placed: domestic manufacturing, supply chain localization, renewable energy infrastructure
More exposed: global supply chains, commodity exporters, multinational services
Named: CAT, INTC, BA, DE
What would break this: WTO challenges to tariffs, rapid inflation from import costs reducing policy support, or unexpected multilateral trade agreements reversing protectionism.
Readings drawn from the document corpus, not from price action. Each carries the case against it, because a view without a stated way to be wrong is not worth much. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell anything.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Markov Regime Engine | UP | 88% |
| Macro Factor Gate | UP | 55% |
Consensus: BULLISH
Model failed validation: out-of-sample error 1.1362% is worse than the 0.7113% predict-zero baseline. Projection withheld until a weekly retrain produces a model that beats the baseline.
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 11.0% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 51% |
| Variance risk premium | +3.5 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.53% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.42% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.53% |
Premium in normal range — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.07 in-sample / 0.16 OOS, worst 0.07) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil & Gas | 0.95 | 2.1h | CRITICAL |
| Geopolitical Tension | 0.94 | 2.3h | CRITICAL |
| Bond Market | 0.83 | 3.5h | ELEVATED |
| Interest Rates | 0.76 | 0.6h | ELEVATED |
| Artificial Intelligence | 0.74 | 0.5h | ELEVATED |
| Monetary Policy | 0.64 | 1.1h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Cloud & Data Centers | 0.55 | 1.4h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Retirement Planning | 0.53 | 0.6h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 498 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 1,475 |
| Projected close of day | 2,182 |
| Daily average | 1,336 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 1.22× |
| Total in corpus | 180,398 |
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.