real time stock market sentiment dashboard
A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login, no sign-up.
Regime read: LONG · expected +2.88% ± 5.29% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.54 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Bull (77.5% posterior, +41.4%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.1218%/day and dominates. Net +0.1235%/day.
Same hours, earlier readings — the fastest way to see whether today is unusual.
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOOD | +21.7 | Financials | 38.0 | 1.81 | 68% | 2k—>52k HOODprofitableExtended FWD P/E |
| SNOW | +16.3 | Information Technology | 120.8 | — | 89% | Made a profit of $159k on the SNOW call options expiring on September 4thEV/EBITDA < 10Price > Analyst TargetExtended FWD P/E |
| PLTR | +14.6 | Information Technology | 78.9 | 1.73 | 75% | Palantir Rallies 7% as PwC Alliance Counters Michael Burry Bear Case, ServiceNow Climbs 5%, Salesforce Gains 3%profitableExtended FWD P/E |
| BE | +11.1 | Industrials | 47.9 | 0.48 | 61% | Bloom Energy and 7 More Stocks That Could Join the S&P 500 This MonthprofitablePEGY < 0.75Extended FWD P/EMean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
| COIN | +9.2 | Financials | 70.4 | — | 20% | Coinbase tokenized stocks hit $100M in volume; first Zcash ETF and Strategy yield goes DeFiExtended FWD P/EMean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
NO TRADE: every ranked play has a negative expected net gain after costs in the current regime. The table is a relative ordering, not a buy list.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SNOW | LONG | 47.3% | -0.18 | -0.53 | -0.60 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 32.7); Accelerating velocity +34.4 (13 mentions/12h); Earnings catalyst (82% PM conviction) |
| 2 | PLTR | LONG | 50.8% | -0.23 | -0.60 | -1.18 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 14.6); Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 3 | HOOD | LONG | 47.7% | -0.24 | -0.54 | -0.80 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 21.8); Accelerating velocity +13.4 (9 mentions/12h) |
| 4 | BE | LONG | 50.3% | -0.24 | -0.49 | -0.45 | Accelerating velocity +12.8 (4 mentions/12h) |
| 5 | META | LONG | 35.2% | -0.24 | -0.54 | -0.80 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 12.5); Accelerating velocity +9.6 (5 mentions/12h) |
| 6 | COIN | LONG | 29.9% | -0.24 | -0.54 | -0.80 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 18.5); Accelerating velocity +11.0 (5 mentions/12h) |
Engine hit rate 44.0% over 366 scored calls (lower bound 39.0%), average net alpha -0.173%. Serving: incumbent.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
Snowflake's 23% surge on AI-fueled guidance raise is a powerful catalyst, but conviction is capped to avoid the 'strategic narrative trap' by accounting for the gap between projected guidance and realized execution.
2026-09-03 14:41A 47% crash to record lows indicates a fundamental repricing and loss of institutional confidence, which typically signals a death spiral rather than a mean-reversion opportunity.
2026-09-03 14:30The loss of a $53 billion safety net represents a significant removal of liquidity and financial cushioning, exposing the company to competitive pressures and lack of innovation, which the market typically views as a a catastrophic removal of life support rather than a strategic pivot.
2026-08-30 20:02The removal of a speculative buyout premium creates a vacuum in the valuation, as the stock was trading on a rumor-driven floor rather than organic fundamentals.
2026-08-29 01:21VREX is a bullish catalyst due to the acquisition by Teledyne, but the majority of the premium is likely already priced in, limiting further upside potential and now shifting the risk-reward profile to an arbitrage play rather than a a growth story.
2026-08-28 06:20While Meta's settlement caps the legal risk for the sector, the asymmetry of the balance sheet risk creates an existential threat for Snap, as any similar liability would be liquidated by a fraction of the cost Meta can absorb.
2026-08-28 04:16None
2026-08-25 18:03A $10.2B share placement for AI funding is a significant equity dilution event that the market is currently pricing as a high-risk capital expenditure rather than a strategic growth catalyst.
2026-08-25 05:23A $600M equity offering represents massive dilution and a signal of liquidity stress, which the market is already pricing in via a 12% drop and sympathetic sector-wide declines.
2026-08-24 13:52The release of 319 million shares creates a massive supply overhang that outweighs the theoretical valuation floor, transforming the IPO mark into a hard ceiling and triggering a liquidity crunch.
2026-08-23 23:20Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
| Ticker | Velocity | Vol | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| SNOW | +34.4 | 13 | Made a profit of $159k on the SNOW call options expiring on September 4th |
| HOOD | +13.4 | 9 | 2k—>52k HOOD |
| BE | +12.8 | 4 | Bloom Energy and 7 More Stocks That Could Join the S&P 500 This Month |
| COIN | +11.0 | 5 | Coinbase tokenized stocks hit $100M in volume; first Zcash ETF and Strategy yield goes DeFi |
| META | +9.6 | 5 | Wall Street Nears Record Highs With Help From Mag 7 |
Change in scored coverage over the last 12 hours versus the prior 12.
| RARE | -9.6 | JPMorgan cuts Ultragenyx stock rating on trial setback |
| MDB | -7.9 | MongoDB’s Impressive Results Can’t Stop Stock Decline |
| MTD | -4.6 | Rothschild Redburn initiates Mettler-Toledo stock with sell rating |
| CRDO | -3.2 | Why Is Credo Technology Stock Sinking Wednesday? |
| RKLB | -2.5 | How Long Can Rocket Lab Stock Wait On Neutron? |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy | +272 | +1,420 | +2,081 | |
| Financials | +138 | +636 | +2,134 | |
| Information Technology | +120 | +525 | +2,122 | |
| Health Carebearish reversal | -2 | +142 | +66 | |
| Materials | +27 | +129 | +394 | |
| Communication Services | -14 | +102 | -94 | |
| Consumer Staples | -43 | -12 | -595 | |
| Industrials | -30 | -79 | -408 | |
| Consumer Discretionary | -94 | -588 | -1,338 | |
| Utilities | -114 | -809 | -1,443 | |
| Real Estate | -257 | -1,470 | -2,917 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil Prices | +115.0 | +181 | |
| Artificial Intelligence | +68.7 | +327 | |
| Stock Market | +49.5 | +52 | |
| Tech Stocks | +32.0 | +34 | |
| Monetary Policy | -13.3 | -39 | |
| Public Debt | -13.3 | -16 | |
| Semiconductors | -17.0 | +20 | |
| Interest Rates | -30.5 | -307 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Theme | Sources | Conviction | |
|---|---|---|---|
| defense security | 202 | 90 | |
| healthcare policy | 175 | 66 | |
| transport mobility | 157 | 75 | |
| geopolitics | 146 | 77 | |
| financial regulation | 142 | 77 | |
| monetary policy | 129 | 80 | |
| agriculture food | 116 | 67 | |
| education skills | 105 | 66 | |
| banking | 102 | 67 | |
| infrastructure | 71 | 65 |
A slower reading than the panels above. Sources counts the documents behind a theme; conviction weighs how many independent sources agree, how recent they are and how strong the signal is. Moves over weeks, not hours.
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Short-term | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BLK | BlackRock | 957 | — | — |
| Its Aladdin platform is a primary tool for institutional risk management amid monetary policy shifts. banking, financial regulation, monetary policy | ||||
| LMT | Lockheed Martin | 951 | — | — |
| Defense contractor supplying security systems for infrastructure protection in volatile regions defense security, financial regulation, geopolitics, trade policy | ||||
| NEE | NextEra Energy | 769 | — | — |
| Benefits from continued international cooperation on climate action and green energy transition. climate policy, energy policy, financial regulation, geopolitics | ||||
| PLTR | Palantir Technologies | 631 | +14.6 | aligned |
| AI-driven data analytics for conflict monitoring and early warning systems banking, defense security, financial regulation, geopolitics | ||||
| JPM | JPMorgan Chase & Co | 630 | — | — |
| Major bank with compressed net interest margins due to extended low-rate environment from stable core inflation policy. banking, financial regulation, monetary policy | ||||
| DE | Deere & Company | 549 | — | — |
| Agricultural equipment demand grows domestically as US farm subsidies expand under protectionist policies. agriculture food, financial regulation, geopolitics, trade policy | ||||
| MSCI | MSCI Inc | 473 | — | — |
| Provides risk management and governance indices used by institutional investors to monitor regulatory compliance. banking, financial regulation | ||||
| ICE | Intercontinental Exchange | 446 | — | — |
| Operates global exchanges and clearing houses benefiting from modernized market plumbing. capital markets, financial regulation, monetary policy | ||||
| MUFG | Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group | 446 | — | — |
| Large Japanese bank exposed to Bank of Japan monetary base and liquidity operations. banking, financial regulation, monetary policy | ||||
| HSBA | HSBC Holdings | 425 | — | — |
| Faces significant capital expenditure to modernize legacy back-office systems to meet new regulatory and speed standards. banking, financial regulation, monetary policy, trade policy | ||||
Weight is how prominently a company features across the document corpus, with the reason for its exposure underneath. These are the names that recur in policy and regulatory material, which is a different population from the tickers moving on today's news. Where a name also has a current sentiment score, both are shown: aligned means they point the same way, diverging means one horizon has not caught up with the other.
Trade fragmentation drives domestic industrialization and strategic supply chain regionalization
Increased tariffs and protectionist policies raise the cost of imports, incentivizing companies to shift production closer to end-markets (reshoring/friend-shoring). Government subsidies for strategic industries accelerate this transition by lowering capital expenditure for domestic plants. Simultaneously, security concerns necessitate investments in supply chain visibility software and alternative payment rails to m
Better placed: domestic semiconductor fabrication, industrial automation and robotics, regional logistics infrastructure, supply chain visibility software
More exposed: offshore-dependent consumer electronics assembly, globalized just-in-time retail logistics, export-heavy commodity producers in sanctioned regions, traditional cross-border payment intermediaries
Named: INTC, AAPL, ROK, ASML
What would break this: A comprehensive global trade treaty renewing the WTO's authority or a severe domestic fiscal crisis forcing the end of industrial subsidies would falsify this thesis.
Humanitarian and security sectors benefit from escalating conflicts and climate disasters
Documented evidence shows rising attacks on civilian infrastructure (hospitals in Ukraine/Haiti) and accelerating climate disasters (Nepal floods, sea-level rise). This drives demand for humanitarian logistics to deliver aid amid conflict disruptions, security services protecting critical infrastructure, and disaster-resilient infrastructure. Conversely, sectors reliant on stable supply chains (oil/gas E&P) face oper
Better placed: humanitarian aid logistics, infrastructure security services, disaster-resilient power grid
More exposed: oil/gas exploration & production, agricultural supply chains, civilian infrastructure operators
Named: DPSTF, LMT, SI, CVX, ADM
What would break this: If global conflict de-escalates rapidly or climate mitigation efforts significantly reduce disaster frequency, demand for security/humanitarian services would decline.
Regulatory clarity boosts digital payment innovation and crypto compliance
Regulators are developing frameworks to foster payment innovation while extending oversight to AI-driven tools and crypto services. Australia's A2A Payments Roadmap enables real-time interoperability, UK mandates drive bank-led innovation, and HMRC reporting rules create structured crypto compliance requirements. This reduces uncertainty for compliant digital payment providers and crypto platforms that integrate regu
Better placed: real-time payment infrastructure, crypto compliance solutions, digital wallet platforms
More exposed: legacy bank payment systems, non-compliant crypto service providers
Named: PYPL, COIN, FIT, MA
What would break this: Overly restrictive regulations stifling innovation (e.g., excessive transaction fees), or global regulatory fragmentation causing compliance costs to exceed market growth potential.
Humanitarian access pressures boost security and monitoring sectors
The trend highlights weaponized maritime chokepoints, drone attacks on civilians, and AI-driven weapons as threats to humanitarian access. This increases demand for secure aid delivery systems (e.g., protected logistics routes) and real-time conflict monitoring tools to avoid danger zones. Consequently, security services for humanitarian actors and AI-based monitoring platforms gain traction. Conversely, maritime shi
Better placed: Humanitarian logistics & security, Conflict monitoring technology
More exposed: Maritime shipping (chokepoint routes), Defense contractors (AI weapons)
Named: ACM, PLTR, LMT, AI
What would break this: Rapid diplomatic resolution of conflicts or failure to implement binding controls on AI weapons would reduce demand for security services and monitoring tools while alleviating pressure on defense contractors.
Regional supply chain hubs boost manufacturing and energy infrastructure
Nations are reducing reliance on single sources like China through trade policy shifts and new production capacity. Nigeria's seven-fold petroleum export surge after Dangote refinery demonstrates regional self-sufficiency in energy, indicating that regions building local capabilities (e.g., manufacturing/energy) will gain. Consequently, sectors enabling regional infrastructure development benefit, while centralized s
Better placed: Regional manufacturing infrastructure, Emerging energy infrastructure, Regional logistics networks
More exposed: China-centric export manufacturing
Named: CAT, TTE, UNP, FOXF
What would break this: Trade policy reversals or failure of new regional capacity (e.g., Nigeria's refinery) to meet export demands would undermine the trend.
Bilateral currency swaps support cross-border trade finance
RBI maintaining unchanged rates prevents increased borrowing costs for businesses, supporting stable credit conditions. Australia-China bilateral currency swap reduces FX volatility and transaction costs for direct trade between the two nations, directly benefiting financial institutions facilitating these transactions and export-oriented sectors reliant on China trade.
Better placed: cross-border trade finance, international banking services
Named: CBA.AX, WBC.AX, BHP.AX
What would break this: Global economic shock forcing rate hikes or termination of Australia-China currency swap agreement
Domestic manufacturing gains as global supply chains fragment
Protectionist policies like US tariffs and reshoring incentives reduce reliance on imports, boosting domestic production. EU's erosion of open trade increases barriers for export-dependent sectors while prioritizing local supply chains. This shifts capital toward domestically oriented infrastructure and manufacturing, pressuring multinational supply chain models.
Better placed: domestic manufacturing, supply chain localization, renewable energy infrastructure
More exposed: global supply chains, commodity exporters, multinational services
Named: CAT, INTC, BA, DE
What would break this: WTO challenges to tariffs, rapid inflation from import costs reducing policy support, or unexpected multilateral trade agreements reversing protectionism.
RBI liquidity tightening and NBFC scrutiny pressure non-bank funding costs
The RBI's use of VRRR auctions to absorb excess liquidity reduces the overall pool of loanable funds in the banking system, which typically leads to higher borrowing costs for financial intermediaries. Since Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) rely heavily on bank borrowings and wholesale markets rather than deposits, they are more sensitive to these liquidity drains. Simultaneously, strict regulatory oversight r
Better placed: large systemic commercial banks, regulatory compliance technology providers, high-credit-rating NBFCs
More exposed: small to mid-sized NBFCs, high-leverage shadow banking entities, unsecured consumer credit lenders
Named: HDB, BAJFINANCE, SBIN, ICICI
What would break this: A significant increase in foreign portfolio investment (FPI) inflows could offset VRRR absorption, or a pivot by the RBI toward an accommodative stance to stimulate growth.
Readings drawn from the document corpus, not from price action. Each carries the case against it, because a view without a stated way to be wrong is not worth much. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell anything.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Markov Regime Engine | UP | 82% |
| Macro Factor Gate | UP | 55% |
Consensus: BULLISH
Model failed validation: out-of-sample error 1.1362% is worse than the 0.7113% predict-zero baseline. Projection withheld until a weekly retrain produces a model that beats the baseline.
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 11.3% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 52% |
| Variance risk premium | +2.6 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.53% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.43% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.55% |
Premium in normal range — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.06 in-sample / 0.15 OOS, worst 0.06) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Geopolitical Tension | 0.96 | 2.5h | CRITICAL |
| Oil & Gas | 0.94 | 1.1h | CRITICAL |
| Bond Yields | 0.89 | 0.9h | ELEVATED |
| Interest Rates | 0.78 | 0.7h | ELEVATED |
| Artificial Intelligence | 0.75 | 0.5h | ELEVATED |
| Bond Market | 0.74 | 2.6h | ELEVATED |
| Monetary Policy | 0.67 | 1.2h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Cloud & Data Centers | 0.59 | 1.5h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 1,687 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 1,475 |
| Projected close of day | 1,733 |
| Daily average | 1,335 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 1.30× |
| Total in corpus | 181,587 |
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.