real time stock market sentiment dashboard
A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login, no sign-up.
Regime read: LONG · expected +2.87% ± 5.27% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.54 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Bull (78.7% posterior, +41.0%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.1225%/day and dominates. Net +0.1241%/day.
Same hours, earlier readings — the fastest way to see whether today is unusual.
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOOD | +17.6 | Financials | 37.0 | 1.81 | 65% | Robinhood Earns Transaction Revenue Directly on Crypto. That Cuts Both Ways.profitableExtended FWD P/E |
| UBER | +14.7 | Information Technology | 17.3 | 6.44 | 28% | Uber is cutting 3,300 jobs despite double-digit growth as it makes room for its robotaxi futureprofitableExpensive PEGY (>2)Mean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
| SNOW | +13.3 | Information Technology | 113.4 | — | 82% | Snowflake Shares Rise After Q2 Revenue and Earnings Exceed EstimatesEV/EBITDA < 10Extended FWD P/EMean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
| BE | +5.9 | Industrials | 51.4 | 0.53 | 67% | Bloom Energy Corp Stock (BE) Moved Up by 8.48% on Sep 3: Key Drivers UnveiledprofitablePEGY < 0.75Extended FWD P/E |
| COIN | +5.6 | Financials | 67.4 | — | 17% | Coinbase Launches Derivative Contracts in CanadaExtended FWD P/EUNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
NO TRADE: every ranked play has a negative expected net gain after costs in the current regime. The table is a relative ordering, not a buy list.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IREN | LONG | 48.5% | -0.32 | -0.50 | -0.14 | Accelerating velocity +6.2 (2 mentions/12h) |
| 2 | BE | LONG | 33.8% | -0.18 | -0.58 | -1.22 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 5.9); CIO meta-model current selection; ⚠ Extended FWD P/E |
| 3 | COIN | LONG | 38.0% | -0.18 | -0.58 | -1.22 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 5.7); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; UNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
| 4 | SNAP | LONG | 36.2% | -0.49 | -0.59 | +0.12 | Despair reversion: sentiment -4 but undervalued; Quality: F-score 7/9 |
| 5 | HOOD | LONG | 21.6% | -0.20 | -0.54 | -0.84 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 17.8); Accelerating velocity +0.8 (9 mentions/12h); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E |
| 6 | KOD | LONG | 36.2% | -0.49 | -0.59 | +0.12 | Despair reversion: sentiment -4 but undervalued |
| 7 | ASTS | LONG | 36.2% | -0.49 | -0.59 | +0.12 | Despair reversion: sentiment -4 but undervalued |
| 8 | SNOW | LONG | 36.9% | -0.28 | -0.53 | -0.48 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 13.5); Accelerating velocity +0.4 (4 mentions/12h); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Mean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
Engine hit rate 43.8% over 377 scored calls (lower bound 38.8%), average net alpha -0.190%. Serving: incumbent.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
Phase 3 primary endpoint miss in a core growth catalyst is a binary failure that fundamentally breaks the valuation thesis and triggers a significant valuation collapse.
2026-09-04 20:56A revenue beat is a backward-looking metric; the market is pricing in a structural growth slowdown and the potential obsolescence of traditional RPA in the face of Generative AI.
2026-09-04 15:03Snowflake's 23% surge on AI-fueled guidance raise is a powerful catalyst, but conviction is capped to avoid the 'strategic narrative trap' by accounting for the gap between projected guidance and realized execution.
2026-09-03 14:41The loss of a $53 billion safety net represents a significant removal of liquidity and financial cushioning, exposing the company to competitive pressures and lack of innovation, which the market typically views as a a catastrophic removal of life support rather than a strategic pivot.
2026-08-30 20:02The removal of a speculative buyout premium creates a vacuum in the valuation, as the stock was trading on a rumor-driven floor rather than organic fundamentals.
2026-08-29 01:21VREX is a bullish catalyst due to the acquisition by Teledyne, but the majority of the premium is likely already priced in, limiting further upside potential and now shifting the risk-reward profile to an arbitrage play rather than a a growth story.
2026-08-28 06:20While Meta's settlement caps the legal risk for the sector, the asymmetry of the balance sheet risk creates an existential threat for Snap, as any similar liability would be liquidated by a fraction of the cost Meta can absorb.
2026-08-28 04:16None
2026-08-25 18:03A $10.2B share placement for AI funding is a significant equity dilution event that the market is currently pricing as a high-risk capital expenditure rather than a strategic growth catalyst.
2026-08-25 05:23A $600M equity offering represents massive dilution and a signal of liquidity stress, which the market is already pricing in via a 12% drop and sympathetic sector-wide declines.
2026-08-24 13:52Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
| Ticker | Velocity | Vol | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| UBER | +11.4 | 6 | Uber is cutting 3,300 jobs despite double-digit growth as it makes room for its robotaxi future |
| IREN | +6.2 | 2 | Blue Owl leads $2.4 billion IREN GPU financing at 9% |
| HOOD | +0.8 | 9 | Robinhood Earns Transaction Revenue Directly on Crypto. That Cuts Both Ways. |
| SNOW | +0.4 | 4 | Snowflake Shares Rise After Q2 Revenue and Earnings Exceed Estimates |
Change in scored coverage over the last 12 hours versus the prior 12.
| RARE | -7.8 | Ultragenyx Shares Fall After Phase 3 Aspire Study Misses Primary Endpoint |
| CRDO | -6.4 | Why Credo Technology Stock Plunged 20% Today |
| PATH | -5.0 | BMO Capital Markets Forecasts Strong Price Appreciation for UiPath (NYSE:PATH) Stock |
| SNAP | -3.7 | Meta Platforms May Have Escaped the Worst of a Landmark Teen-Safety Lawsuit. But the Ramifications Could Be Much Worse for Snap. |
| KOD | -3.7 | Kodiak Sciences (KOD) Races Toward Three Make-Or-Break Trial Verdicts |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy | +112 | +1,476 | +2,160 | |
| Financials | +176 | +617 | +2,238 | |
| Information Technology | +136 | +516 | +2,193 | |
| Communication Servicesbullish reversal | +34 | +144 | -42 | |
| Materials | +24 | +135 | +428 | |
| Health Carebearish reversal | -22 | +120 | +57 | |
| Consumer Staples | -44 | -54 | -604 | |
| Industrials | -32 | -109 | -443 | |
| Consumer Discretionary | -110 | -629 | -1,457 | |
| Utilities | -98 | -792 | -1,500 | |
| Real Estate | -174 | -1,422 | -3,028 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Interest Rates | +131.2 | -162 | |
| Monetary Policy | +81.0 | +47 | |
| Employment | +76.2 | +73 | |
| Artificial Intelligence | +74.2 | +304 | |
| Supply Chain | -13.7 | -19 | |
| Trade Policy | -14.2 | -16 | |
| Cryptocurrency | -17.3 | +29 | |
| Oil Prices | -47.5 | +49 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Theme | Sources | Conviction | |
|---|---|---|---|
| defense security | 199 | 73 | |
| healthcare policy | 183 | 65 | |
| transport mobility | 152 | 71 | |
| geopolitics | 142 | 77 | |
| financial regulation | 140 | 76 | |
| monetary policy | 128 | 79 | |
| agriculture food | 122 | 67 | |
| education skills | 103 | 65 | |
| banking | 95 | 79 | |
| infrastructure | 70 | 65 |
A slower reading than the panels above. Sources counts the documents behind a theme; conviction weighs how many independent sources agree, how recent they are and how strong the signal is. Moves over weeks, not hours.
| Ticker | Company | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| BLK | BlackRock | 1,013 |
| Its Aladdin platform is a primary tool for institutional risk management amid monetary policy shifts. banking, capital markets, financial regulation, monetary policy | ||
| LMT | Lockheed Martin | 985 |
| Development of AI-driven military weapons subject to binding controls defense security, financial regulation, geopolitics, trade policy | ||
| NEE | NextEra Energy | 693 |
| Major utility with renewable infrastructure projects reliant on stable long-term financing. climate policy, energy policy, financial regulation, geopolitics | ||
| PLTR | Palantir Technologies | 581 |
| AI-driven data analytics for conflict monitoring and early warning systems defense security, financial regulation, geopolitics, industrial policy | ||
| MUFG | Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group | 564 |
| Large Japanese bank exposed to Bank of Japan monetary base and liquidity operations. banking, capital markets, financial regulation, monetary policy | ||
| HDB | HDFC Bank | 560 |
| Strong deposit base reduces reliance on volatile wholesale funding during liquidity tightening. banking, financial regulation, monetary policy | ||
| DE | Deere & Company | 546 |
| Agricultural equipment demand grows domestically as US farm subsidies expand under protectionist policies. agriculture food, financial regulation, geopolitics, trade policy | ||
| MSCI | MSCI Inc | 535 |
| Provides risk management and governance indices used by institutional investors to monitor regulatory compliance. banking, financial regulation | ||
| JPM | JPMorgan Chase & Co | 511 |
| Major bank with compressed net interest margins due to extended low-rate environment from stable core inflation policy. banking, financial regulation, monetary policy | ||
| ACN | Accenture | 475 |
| Large-scale global provider of public sector consulting and government technology implementation. banking, defense security, financial regulation, industrial policy | ||
Weight is how prominently a company features across the document corpus, with the reason for its exposure underneath. These are the names that recur in policy and regulatory material, which is a different population from the tickers moving on today's news.
RBI liquidity absorption likely to increase short-term borrowing costs and bond yields
The RBI's use of VRRR auctions removes excess cash from the commercial banking system. This reduction in available liquidity typically puts upward pressure on overnight interbank call rates. As banks have less surplus capital to deploy, demand for government securities (G-Secs) may soften, leading to higher yields and lower bond prices. Consequently, entities relying on short-term wholesale funding or bank credit fac
Better placed: short-term money market funds, banks with high CASA ratios, floating rate debt instruments
More exposed: non-banking financial companies (NBFCs), highly leveraged corporate borrowers, long-duration government bond holders
Named: HDB, BAJAJFIN, LICI, SBIN
What would break this: A sudden surge in government spending or a massive influx of foreign portfolio investment (FPI) could offset the VRRR absorption, maintaining liquidity levels.
RBI liquidity absorption likely to elevate short-term borrowing costs and pressure NBFCs
The RBI's use of VRRR auctions removes excess cash from the banking system, reducing the supply of loanable funds. This typically leads to an increase in interbank call money rates. As funding becomes tighter, banks may raise lending rates to maintain net interest margins (NIMs), which increases the cost of capital for corporate borrowers and Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) that rely on bank credit rather tha
Better placed: short-duration fixed income, high-quality banks with strong deposit franchises, cash-rich corporations
More exposed: non-banking financial companies (NBFCs), highly leveraged corporate borrowers, banks with high reliance on wholesale funding
Named: HDB, SBIN, BAJAJFIN, RELIANCE
What would break this: A sudden shift toward monetary easing or an unexpected surge in foreign portfolio investment (FPI) inflows could offset the RBI's absorption efforts.
RBI liquidity absorption via VRRRs likely to tighten short-term credit conditions
1. RBI uses VRRR auctions to remove excess cash from the banking system. 2. Reduced systemic liquidity typically puts upward pressure on interbank call money rates and short-term yields. 3. As banks face tighter liquidity, they may increase lending rates to maintain net interest margins (NIMs). 4. This increases the cost of capital for corporate borrowers and reduces available credit for highly leveraged sectors.
Better placed: short-term debt instruments, banks with high CASA ratios, liquid fund managers
More exposed: highly leveraged corporates, non-banking financial companies (NBFCs), real estate development, wholesale funding dependent sectors
Named: HDB, SBIN, BAJFINANCE, DLF
What would break this: A sudden shift in RBI policy toward accommodation or a massive influx of foreign portfolio investment (FPI) could offset the liquidity absorption.
RBI liquidity absorption tightens monetary conditions and pressures banking net interest margins
1. The RBI uses Variable Rate Reverse Repo (VRRR) auctions to remove excess cash from the commercial banking system. 2. This reduction in systemic liquidity typically leads to an increase in short-term interbank lending rates. 3. As banks face higher costs for funding and liquidity management, their cost of funds increases. 4. If these increased costs cannot be immediately passed on to borrowers via higher loan rates
Better placed: short-duration debt funds, money market instruments, liquid fund managers
More exposed: commercial banking sector, highly leveraged corporate borrowers, credit-sensitive sectors like real estate
Named: HDB, IBN, SBIN, RELIANCE
What would break this: A sudden influx of government spending or foreign portfolio investment (FPI) inflows could offset the RBI's absorption efforts, maintaining liquidity levels.
Regulatory clarity boosts digital payment innovation and crypto compliance
Regulators are developing frameworks to foster payment innovation while extending oversight to AI-driven tools and crypto services. Australia's A2A Payments Roadmap enables real-time interoperability, UK mandates drive bank-led innovation, and HMRC reporting rules create structured crypto compliance requirements. This reduces uncertainty for compliant digital payment providers and crypto platforms that integrate regu
Better placed: real-time payment infrastructure, crypto compliance solutions, digital wallet platforms
More exposed: legacy bank payment systems, non-compliant crypto service providers
Named: PYPL, COIN, FIT, MA
What would break this: Overly restrictive regulations stifling innovation (e.g., excessive transaction fees), or global regulatory fragmentation causing compliance costs to exceed market growth potential.
Humanitarian access pressures boost security and monitoring sectors
The trend highlights weaponized maritime chokepoints, drone attacks on civilians, and AI-driven weapons as threats to humanitarian access. This increases demand for secure aid delivery systems (e.g., protected logistics routes) and real-time conflict monitoring tools to avoid danger zones. Consequently, security services for humanitarian actors and AI-based monitoring platforms gain traction. Conversely, maritime shi
Better placed: Humanitarian logistics & security, Conflict monitoring technology
More exposed: Maritime shipping (chokepoint routes), Defense contractors (AI weapons)
Named: ACM, PLTR, LMT, AI
What would break this: Rapid diplomatic resolution of conflicts or failure to implement binding controls on AI weapons would reduce demand for security services and monitoring tools while alleviating pressure on defense contractors.
Regional supply chain hubs boost manufacturing and energy infrastructure
Nations are reducing reliance on single sources like China through trade policy shifts and new production capacity. Nigeria's seven-fold petroleum export surge after Dangote refinery demonstrates regional self-sufficiency in energy, indicating that regions building local capabilities (e.g., manufacturing/energy) will gain. Consequently, sectors enabling regional infrastructure development benefit, while centralized s
Better placed: Regional manufacturing infrastructure, Emerging energy infrastructure, Regional logistics networks
More exposed: China-centric export manufacturing
Named: CAT, TTE, UNP, FOXF
What would break this: Trade policy reversals or failure of new regional capacity (e.g., Nigeria's refinery) to meet export demands would undermine the trend.
Bilateral currency swaps support cross-border trade finance
RBI maintaining unchanged rates prevents increased borrowing costs for businesses, supporting stable credit conditions. Australia-China bilateral currency swap reduces FX volatility and transaction costs for direct trade between the two nations, directly benefiting financial institutions facilitating these transactions and export-oriented sectors reliant on China trade.
Better placed: cross-border trade finance, international banking services
Named: CBA.AX, WBC.AX, BHP.AX
What would break this: Global economic shock forcing rate hikes or termination of Australia-China currency swap agreement
Readings drawn from the document corpus, not from price action. Each carries the case against it, because a view without a stated way to be wrong is not worth much. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell anything.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Markov Regime Engine | UP | 83% |
| Macro Factor Gate | UP | 55% |
Consensus: BULLISH
Model failed validation: out-of-sample error 1.0159% is worse than the 0.6288% predict-zero baseline. Projection withheld until a weekly retrain produces a model that beats the baseline.
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 11.1% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 53% |
| Variance risk premium | +3.0 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.52% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.41% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.51% |
Premium in normal range — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.07 in-sample / 0.18 OOS, worst 0.07) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Geopolitical Tension | 0.94 | 2.1h | CRITICAL |
| Oil & Gas | 0.93 | 1.1h | CRITICAL |
| Bond Yields | 0.83 | 0.9h | ELEVATED |
| Interest Rates | 0.77 | 0.8h | ELEVATED |
| Artificial Intelligence | 0.71 | 0.6h | ELEVATED |
| Monetary Policy | 0.58 | 1.4h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Cloud & Data Centers | 0.56 | 1.2h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Crypto & Digital Assets | 0.44 | 1.1h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 1,342 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 1,734 |
| Projected close of day | 1,428 |
| Daily average | 1,336 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 1.02× |
| Total in corpus | 182,976 |
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.