A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login to read it.
Regime read: LONG · expected +2.76% ± 5.26% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.53 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Bull (78.2% posterior, +39.7%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.1175%/day and dominates. Net +0.1196%/day.
Same hours, earlier readings — the fastest way to see whether today is unusual.
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOOD | +13.0 | Financials | 35.5 | 2.13 | 60% | Exclusive | Robinhood Strikes Deal With Crypto.com in Latest Prediction-Markets PushprofitableExtended FWD P/EExpensive PEGY (>2) |
| BE | +5.7 | Industrials | 56.3 | 0.57 | 75% | Bloom Energy is Fully Priced: Is a Re-rating Coming?profitablePEGY < 0.75Extended FWD P/E |
| ARM | +3.9 | Information Technology | 85.4 | 2.07 | 46% | Arm’s Biggest Growth Driver May Not Be Smartphones AnymoreprofitableExtended FWD P/EExpensive PEGY (>2) |
| ACN | +3.7 | Information Technology | 12.2 | 1.02 | 35% | Accenture and Google Cloud launch Gemini Enterprise Business GroupconvictionprofitableFwd P/E < 15EV/EBITDA < 10 |
| META | +3.5 | Communication Services | 17.5 | 0.81 | 34% | Meta bets on AI agent Muse to catch up in AI raceUNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
NO TRADE: every ranked play has a negative expected net gain after costs in the current regime. The table is a relative ordering, not a buy list.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ACN | LONG | 47.4% | -0.32 | -0.47 | -0.45 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 3.8); Valuation corroborated (PEGY/fwd-PE/EV checks); High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum |
| 2 | IONQ | LONG | 37.3% | -0.31 | -0.39 | -0.04 | Accelerating velocity +7.4 (2 mentions/12h) |
| 3 | PATH | LONG | 39.2% | -0.45 | -0.45 | +0.21 | Despair reversion: sentiment -4 but undervalued; Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 4 | TRIP | LONG | 39.2% | -0.45 | -0.45 | +0.21 | Despair reversion: sentiment -4 but undervalued; Quality: F-score 7/9 |
| 5 | META | LONG | 30.9% | -0.21 | -0.46 | -0.74 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 3.5); Accelerating velocity +9.0 (5 mentions/12h); ⚠ UNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
| 6 | BE | LONG | 28.9% | -0.21 | -0.46 | -0.74 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 5.7); Accelerating velocity +7.6 (6 mentions/12h); CIO meta-model current selection; ⚠ Extended FWD P/E |
| 7 | BLKB | LONG | 33.9% | -0.45 | -0.45 | +0.21 | High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum; Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 8 | DOCS | LONG | 39.2% | -0.45 | -0.45 | +0.21 | Despair reversion: sentiment -6 but undervalued |
Engine hit rate 44.3% over 397 scored calls (lower bound 39.5%), average net alpha -0.172%. Serving: incumbent.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
A Phase 3 primary endpoint miss in a late-stage pipeline asset is a fundamental devaluation event that outweighs the platform-based bull thesis in the short-to-medium term.
2026-09-08 11:19The collapse of a $14.5 billion combination removes a massive valuation floor and exposes the stock to a severe correction as the market prices in the risk of due diligence failure.
2026-09-06 23:23A 44% drop following a failed drug trial is a fundamental re-rating of the company's valuation based on lost projected cash flows, not a temporary dip.
2026-09-04 23:49A revenue beat is a backward-looking metric; the market is pricing in a structural growth slowdown and the potential obsolescence of traditional RPA in the face of Generative AI.
2026-09-04 15:03Snowflake's 23% surge on AI-fueled guidance raise is a powerful catalyst, but conviction is capped to avoid the 'strategic narrative trap' by accounting for the gap between projected guidance and realized execution.
2026-09-03 14:41The loss of a $53 billion safety net represents a significant removal of liquidity and financial cushioning, exposing the company to competitive pressures and lack of innovation, which the market typically views as a a catastrophic removal of life support rather than a strategic pivot.
2026-08-30 20:02The removal of a speculative buyout premium creates a vacuum in the valuation, as the stock was trading on a rumor-driven floor rather than organic fundamentals.
2026-08-29 01:21VREX is a bullish catalyst due to the acquisition by Teledyne, but the majority of the premium is likely already priced in, limiting further upside potential and now shifting the risk-reward profile to an arbitrage play rather than a a growth story.
2026-08-28 06:20While Meta's settlement caps the legal risk for the sector, the asymmetry of the balance sheet risk creates an existential threat for Snap, as any similar liability would be liquidated by a fraction of the cost Meta can absorb.
2026-08-28 04:16None
2026-08-25 18:03Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
| Ticker | Velocity | Vol | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOOD | +18.8 | 10 | Exclusive | Robinhood Strikes Deal With Crypto.com in Latest Prediction-Markets Push |
| META | +9.0 | 5 | Meta bets on AI agent Muse to catch up in AI race |
| ARM | +8.6 | 2 | Arm’s Biggest Growth Driver May Not Be Smartphones Anymore |
| BE | +7.6 | 6 | Bloom Energy is Fully Priced: Is a Re-rating Coming? |
| IONQ | +7.4 | 2 | IonQ Raises 2026 Revenue Outlook Following SkyWater Acquisition |
Change in scored coverage over the last 12 hours versus the prior 12.
| DOCS | -3.9 | DOCS Downgraded by Freedom Capital Markets -- Price Target Raised to $27.00 |
| BHVN | -3.8 | Biohaven stock downgraded at RBC Capital Markets (BHVN:NYSE) |
| RBLX | -3.1 | Roblox (RBLX) Faces a Growth Reset After Guidance Cuts — Is the Long-Term Story Still Intact? |
| PATH | -3.0 | UiPath and Pegasystems Sink 7% as Price Target Hikes Arrive Without a Single Buy Rating |
| PCVX | -2.4 | Vaxcyte Has $2.5 Billion in Cash and a $605 Million Half-Year Loss. Here's How to Read Its CFO's Latest Insider Filing |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy | +283 | +1,308 | +2,425 | |
| Information Technology | +112 | +724 | +2,316 | |
| Financials | +101 | +637 | +2,436 | |
| Materials | +2 | +134 | +413 | |
| Communication Servicesbearish reversal | -10 | +105 | +63 | |
| Health Carebearish reversal | -27 | +4 | +54 | |
| Consumer Staples | -30 | -131 | -581 | |
| Industrials | -120 | -255 | -517 | |
| Utilities | -48 | -589 | -1,635 | |
| Consumer Discretionary | -185 | -716 | -1,625 | |
| Real Estate | -77 | -1,224 | -3,353 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Interest Rates | +155.5 | -80 | |
| Oil Prices | +57.8 | +128 | |
| Semiconductors | +41.5 | +74 | |
| Bond Market | +26.3 | -5 | |
| Tariffs | -21.3 | -37 | |
| Geopolitical Risk | -21.8 | -43 | |
| Cybersecurity | -25.0 | -13 | |
| Market Volatility | -35.5 | -57 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Theme | Sources | Conviction | |
|---|---|---|---|
| defense security | 186 | 68 | |
| healthcare policy | 164 | 65 | |
| geopolitics | 146 | 69 | |
| transport mobility | 144 | 64 | |
| financial regulation | 141 | 76 | |
| agriculture food | 113 | 56 | |
| monetary policy | 109 | 69 | |
| infrastructure | 89 | 76 | |
| education skills | 86 | 61 | |
| trade policy | 80 | 83 |
A slower reading than the panels above. Sources counts the documents behind a theme; conviction weighs how many independent sources agree, how recent they are and how strong the signal is. Moves over weeks, not hours.
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Short-term | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLTR | Palantir Technologies | 592 | — | — |
| Provides AI-driven intelligence software used in strategic defense and crisis management. data privacy, defense security, financial regulation, geopolitics | ||||
| NEE | NextEra Energy | 534 | — | — |
| Positions well for coordinated climate-focused economic initiatives and domestic energy shifts. climate policy, energy policy, financial regulation, geopolitics | ||||
| SBGSY | Schneider Electric | 384 | — | — |
| Provides grid modernization and energy management tools essential for national energy autonomy goals. climate policy, energy policy, financial regulation, infrastructure | ||||
| ACN | Accenture | 382 | +3.7 | aligned |
| Large-scale global provider of public sector consulting and government technology implementation. banking, defense security, education skills, financial regulation | ||||
| CNI | Canadian National Railway | 280 | — | — |
| Increased reliance on North American rail for resilient, regionalized supply chains. energy policy, infrastructure, monetary policy, trade policy | ||||
| SAP | SAP SE | 270 | — | — |
| Enterprise software solutions help companies automate compliance with evolving digital market regulations. banking, financial regulation, labor markets, mixed | ||||
| LMT | Lockheed Martin | 256 | — | — |
| Primary provider of advanced air defense systems (PAC-3) and missile technology. defense security, financial regulation, geopolitics, trade policy | ||||
| TSLA | Tesla | 249 | — | — |
| Produces utility-scale battery storage solutions (Megapack) for grid stability. climate policy, energy policy, oil and gas, transport mobility | ||||
| DE | Deere & Company | 246 | — | — |
| Agricultural equipment demand grows domestically as US farm subsidies expand under protectionist policies. agriculture food, financial regulation, geopolitics, trade policy | ||||
| BLK | BlackRock | 243 | — | — |
| Its Aladdin platform is a primary tool for institutional risk management amid monetary policy shifts. banking, capital markets, financial regulation, monetary policy | ||||
Weight is how prominently a company features across the document corpus, with the reason for its exposure underneath. These are the names that recur in policy and regulatory material, which is a different population from the tickers moving on today's news. Where a name also has a current sentiment score, both are shown: aligned means they point the same way, diverging means one horizon has not caught up with the other.
Defense Spending Shifts Toward Infrastructure and Regulated High-Tech Warfare Systems
1. Strengthening NATO's eastern flank and Ukraine's air defenses creates sustained demand for long-term infrastructure, missile interceptors, and conventional munitions. 2. Diplomatic ceasefires in the Middle East and Sudan may dampen short-term tactical consumption of expendable munitions in those specific theaters. 3. The push to regulate AI and autonomous drones shifts the competitive advantage from agile, unregul
Better placed: air defense systems, conventional ammunition production, military logistics infrastructure, NATO-aligned defense primes
More exposed: unregulated autonomous drone startups, tactical munitions focused on Middle East conflict zones, non-compliant AI weapon developers
Named: LMT, RHM.DE, BA, AVAV
What would break this: A total collapse of NATO cohesion or a comprehensive global ban on AI weaponry (rather than mere regulation) would invalidate the growth thesis for these sectors.
NATO expansion and global stability efforts drive strategic defense and security spending
1. NATO reinforcements in the High North and Eastern Flank necessitate increased procurement of advanced weaponry, surveillance systems, and military infrastructure to maintain deterrence. 2. The shift toward 'strategic deterrence' favors high-tech defense capabilities including missile defense and cyber warfare tools. 3. UN-led cooperation on climate adaptation and cross-border crime increases demand for specialized
Better placed: aerospace and defense, cybersecurity, satellite communications, military logistics
More exposed: non-aligned arms exporters, traditional diplomatic consulting (shifting to security-led diplomacy), unsecured cross-border trade logistics
Named: LMT, RHM.DE, PLTR, NOC, AIR.PA
What would break this: A sudden diplomatic breakthrough leading to comprehensive disarmament treaties or a significant reduction in NATO funding commitments would invalidate the growth thesis.
RBI regulatory tightening and liquidity drains pressure Indian banking operational margins
1. Increased monetary penalties for non-compliance with customer compensation and credit reporting raise direct operational costs for financial institutions. 2. Stricter loan pricing regulations limit the ability of lenders to aggressively adjust rates, potentially squeezing net interest margins (NIMs). 3. The use of Variable Rate Reverse Repos (VRRRs) and T-Bill auctions removes excess liquidity from the banking sys
Better placed: RegTech software providers, compliance consultancy services, government securities markets
More exposed: retail commercial banks, non-banking financial companies (NBFCs), aggressive consumer credit lenders
Named: TCS.NS, BAJFINANCE.N, HDB, INFY
What would break this: A shift toward a more accommodative monetary policy or a relaxation of compliance timelines would mitigate the pressure on banking margins.
RBI liquidity absorption likely to increase short-term borrowing costs and bond yields
The RBI's use of VRRR auctions removes excess cash from the commercial banking system. This reduction in available liquidity typically puts upward pressure on overnight interbank call rates. As banks have less surplus capital to deploy, demand for government securities (G-Secs) may soften, leading to higher yields and lower bond prices. Consequently, entities relying on short-term wholesale funding or bank credit fac
Better placed: short-term money market funds, banks with high CASA ratios, floating rate debt instruments
More exposed: non-banking financial companies (NBFCs), highly leveraged corporate borrowers, long-duration government bond holders
Named: HDB, BAJAJFIN, LICI, SBIN
What would break this: A sudden surge in government spending or a massive influx of foreign portfolio investment (FPI) could offset the VRRR absorption, maintaining liquidity levels.
RBI liquidity absorption likely to elevate short-term borrowing costs and pressure NBFCs
The RBI's use of VRRR auctions removes excess cash from the banking system, reducing the supply of loanable funds. This typically leads to an increase in interbank call money rates. As funding becomes tighter, banks may raise lending rates to maintain net interest margins (NIMs), which increases the cost of capital for corporate borrowers and Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) that rely on bank credit rather tha
Better placed: short-duration fixed income, high-quality banks with strong deposit franchises, cash-rich corporations
More exposed: non-banking financial companies (NBFCs), highly leveraged corporate borrowers, banks with high reliance on wholesale funding
Named: HDB, SBIN, BAJAJFIN, RELIANCE
What would break this: A sudden shift toward monetary easing or an unexpected surge in foreign portfolio investment (FPI) inflows could offset the RBI's absorption efforts.
RBI liquidity absorption via VRRRs likely to tighten short-term credit conditions
1. RBI uses VRRR auctions to remove excess cash from the banking system. 2. Reduced systemic liquidity typically puts upward pressure on interbank call money rates and short-term yields. 3. As banks face tighter liquidity, they may increase lending rates to maintain net interest margins (NIMs). 4. This increases the cost of capital for corporate borrowers and reduces available credit for highly leveraged sectors.
Better placed: short-term debt instruments, banks with high CASA ratios, liquid fund managers
More exposed: highly leveraged corporates, non-banking financial companies (NBFCs), real estate development, wholesale funding dependent sectors
Named: HDB, SBIN, BAJFINANCE, DLF
What would break this: A sudden shift in RBI policy toward accommodation or a massive influx of foreign portfolio investment (FPI) could offset the liquidity absorption.
RBI liquidity absorption tightens monetary conditions and pressures banking net interest margins
1. The RBI uses Variable Rate Reverse Repo (VRRR) auctions to remove excess cash from the commercial banking system. 2. This reduction in systemic liquidity typically leads to an increase in short-term interbank lending rates. 3. As banks face higher costs for funding and liquidity management, their cost of funds increases. 4. If these increased costs cannot be immediately passed on to borrowers via higher loan rates
Better placed: short-duration debt funds, money market instruments, liquid fund managers
More exposed: commercial banking sector, highly leveraged corporate borrowers, credit-sensitive sectors like real estate
Named: HDB, IBN, SBIN, RELIANCE
What would break this: A sudden influx of government spending or foreign portfolio investment (FPI) inflows could offset the RBI's absorption efforts, maintaining liquidity levels.
Regulatory clarity boosts digital payment innovation and crypto compliance
Regulators are developing frameworks to foster payment innovation while extending oversight to AI-driven tools and crypto services. Australia's A2A Payments Roadmap enables real-time interoperability, UK mandates drive bank-led innovation, and HMRC reporting rules create structured crypto compliance requirements. This reduces uncertainty for compliant digital payment providers and crypto platforms that integrate regu
Better placed: real-time payment infrastructure, crypto compliance solutions, digital wallet platforms
More exposed: legacy bank payment systems, non-compliant crypto service providers
Named: PYPL, COIN, FIT, MA
What would break this: Overly restrictive regulations stifling innovation (e.g., excessive transaction fees), or global regulatory fragmentation causing compliance costs to exceed market growth potential.
Readings drawn from the document corpus, not from price action. Each carries the case against it, because a view without a stated way to be wrong is not worth much. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell anything.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Markov Regime Engine | UP | 79% |
| Macro Factor Gate | UP | 55% |
Consensus: BULLISH
Model failed validation: out-of-sample error 0.8905% is worse than the 0.4987% predict-zero baseline. Projection withheld until a weekly retrain produces a model that beats the baseline.
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 11.7% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 57% |
| Variance risk premium | +3.5 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.52% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.40% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.55% |
Premium in normal range — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.04 in-sample / -0.10 OOS, worst -0.10) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil & Gas | 0.83 | 0.8h | ELEVATED |
| Bond Yields | 0.80 | 1.1h | ELEVATED |
| Interest Rates | 0.75 | 0.7h | ELEVATED |
| Monetary Policy | 0.71 | 5.4h | ELEVATED |
| Geopolitical Tension | 0.68 | 2.2h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Stock Market | 0.56 | 1.1h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Cloud & Data Centers | 0.50 | 1.0h | SUBCRITICAL |
| FinTech | 0.47 | 1.2h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 1,036 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 952 |
| Projected close of day | 1,209 |
| Daily average | 1,326 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 0.82× |
| Total in corpus | 186,937 |
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.
Reading the full dashboard is free and needs no login. Add your email now and you lock in free access to everything — and you keep it as we add new features. Join while it's still free.