A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login to read it.
Regime read: LONG · expected +2.70% ± 5.30% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.51 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Bull (74.4% posterior, +39.2%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.1111%/day and dominates. Net +0.1134%/day.
Same hours, earlier readings — the fastest way to see whether today is unusual.
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOOD | +8.5 | Financials | 34.7 | 2.13 | 60% | Robinhood Wins a New Role in the Oura IPO: UnderwriterprofitableExtended FWD P/EExpensive PEGY (>2) |
| BE | +6.1 | Industrials | 56.3 | 0.57 | 75% | Bloom Energy (BE) Joins S&P 500: Can Its AI Rally Continue?profitablePEGY < 0.75Extended FWD P/EMean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
| SOFI | +3.5 | Financials | 21.9 | 0.66 | 18% | SoFi, Payward Team up to Connect Banking and Crypto MarketsprofitablePEGY < 0.75 |
| ARM | +2.3 | Information Technology | 85.4 | 2.07 | 46% | Arm’s Biggest Growth Driver May Not Be Smartphones AnymoreprofitableExtended FWD P/EExpensive PEGY (>2) |
| AFRM | +2.0 | Financials | 14.7 | 0.71 | 59% | Loop Capital initiates Affirm stock with buy on growth potentialconvictionprofitablePEGY < 0.75Fwd P/E < 15 |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
NO TRADE: every ranked play has a negative expected net gain after costs in the current regime. The table is a relative ordering, not a buy list.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BR | LONG | 44.1% | -0.18 | -0.45 | -1.14 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 1.9); Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 2 | AFRM | LONG | 43.2% | -0.30 | -0.44 | -0.46 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 2.1); Valuation corroborated (PEGY/fwd-PE/EV checks); High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum |
| 3 | HOOD | LONG | 44.1% | -0.18 | -0.45 | -1.14 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 8.6); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Expensive PEGY (>2) |
| 4 | BE | LONG | 44.1% | -0.18 | -0.45 | -1.14 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 6.1); CIO meta-model current selection; ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Mean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
| 5 | PATH | LONG | 42.3% | -0.43 | -0.43 | +0.22 | Despair reversion: sentiment -4 but undervalued; Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 6 | ARM | LONG | 44.1% | -0.18 | -0.45 | -1.14 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 2.4); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Expensive PEGY (>2); Quality: F-score 7/9 |
| 7 | DOCS | LONG | 42.3% | -0.43 | -0.43 | +0.22 | Despair reversion: sentiment -6 but undervalued |
| 8 | BHVN | LONG | 42.3% | -0.43 | -0.43 | +0.22 | Despair reversion: sentiment -6 but undervalued; ⚠ Weak fundamentals: F-score 2/9 |
Engine hit rate 44.3% over 402 scored calls (lower bound 39.5%), average net alpha -0.162%. Serving: rules.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
A Phase 3 primary endpoint miss in a late-stage pipeline asset is a fundamental devaluation event that outweighs the platform-based bull thesis in the short-to-medium term.
2026-09-08 11:19The collapse of a $14.5 billion combination removes a massive valuation floor and exposes the stock to a severe correction as the market prices in the risk of due diligence failure.
2026-09-06 23:23A 44% drop following a failed drug trial is a fundamental re-rating of the company's valuation based on lost projected cash flows, not a temporary dip.
2026-09-04 23:49A revenue beat is a backward-looking metric; the market is pricing in a structural growth slowdown and the potential obsolescence of traditional RPA in the face of Generative AI.
2026-09-04 15:03Snowflake's 23% surge on AI-fueled guidance raise is a powerful catalyst, but conviction is capped to avoid the 'strategic narrative trap' by accounting for the gap between projected guidance and realized execution.
2026-09-03 14:41The loss of a $53 billion safety net represents a significant removal of liquidity and financial cushioning, exposing the company to competitive pressures and lack of innovation, which the market typically views as a a catastrophic removal of life support rather than a strategic pivot.
2026-08-30 20:02The removal of a speculative buyout premium creates a vacuum in the valuation, as the stock was trading on a rumor-driven floor rather than organic fundamentals.
2026-08-29 01:21VREX is a bullish catalyst due to the acquisition by Teledyne, but the majority of the premium is likely already priced in, limiting further upside potential and now shifting the risk-reward profile to an arbitrage play rather than a a growth story.
2026-08-28 06:20While Meta's settlement caps the legal risk for the sector, the asymmetry of the balance sheet risk creates an existential threat for Snap, as any similar liability would be liquidated by a fraction of the cost Meta can absorb.
2026-08-28 04:16None
2026-08-25 18:03Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
| Ticker | Velocity | Vol | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| SOFI | +5.4 | 2 | SoFi, Payward Team up to Connect Banking and Crypto Markets |
Change in scored coverage over the last 12 hours versus the prior 12.
| UBER | -4.3 | Uber tries to leave a key market |
| PLTR | -3.1 | Burry’s Palantir Warning Is Back. Accenture Shows What Investors Should Check |
| BHVN | -2.3 | Biohaven stock downgraded at RBC Capital Markets (BHVN:NYSE) |
| DOCS | -2.3 | DOCS Downgraded by Freedom Capital Markets -- Price Target Raised to $27.00 |
| WIX | -2.0 | Wix Stock Drops 4.6%—What Its 17.7% Four-Day Slide Is Pricing In |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy | +331 | +1,166 | +2,497 | |
| Information Technology | +131 | +700 | +2,369 | |
| Financials | +109 | +684 | +2,428 | |
| Materialsbearish reversal | -3 | +106 | +401 | |
| Communication Servicesbearish reversal | -7 | +82 | +71 | |
| Health Carebearish reversal | -30 | -14 | +67 | |
| Consumer Staples | -34 | -156 | -582 | |
| Industrials | -135 | -292 | -539 | |
| Utilities | -71 | -528 | -1,650 | |
| Consumer Discretionary | -209 | -704 | -1,696 | |
| Real Estate | -79 | -1,042 | -3,365 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Interest Rates | +86.0 | -101 | |
| Oil Prices | +83.7 | +144 | |
| Artificial Intelligence | +71.8 | +308 | |
| FinTech | +34.0 | +56 | |
| Employment | -21.8 | -3 | |
| Geopolitical Risk | -24.5 | -45 | |
| Inflation | -37.2 | -101 | |
| Market Volatility | -45.2 | -61 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Markov Regime Engine | UP | 79% |
| Macro Factor Gate | UP | 55% |
Consensus: BULLISH
Model failed validation: out-of-sample error 0.7592% is worse than the 0.2772% predict-zero baseline. Projection withheld until a weekly retrain produces a model that beats the baseline.
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 11.7% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 57% |
| Variance risk premium | +3.8 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.52% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.40% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.54% |
Premium in normal range — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.04 in-sample / -0.10 OOS, worst -0.10) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil & Gas | 0.81 | 0.8h | ELEVATED |
| Interest Rates | 0.75 | 0.7h | ELEVATED |
| Bond Yields | 0.74 | 0.9h | ELEVATED |
| Monetary Policy | 0.65 | 4.9h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Geopolitical Tension | 0.63 | 2.2h | SUBCRITICAL |
| M&A | 0.50 | 1.4h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Cloud & Data Centers | 0.49 | 0.9h | SUBCRITICAL |
| FinTech | 0.48 | 1.0h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 274 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 1,150 |
| Projected close of day | 1,108 |
| Daily average | 1,328 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 0.97× |
| Total in corpus | 187,325 |
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.
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