A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login to read it.
Regime read: LONG · expected +2.70% ± 5.30% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.51 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Bull (74.4% posterior, +39.2%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.1111%/day and dominates. Net +0.1134%/day.
Same hours, earlier readings — the fastest way to see whether today is unusual.
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOOD | +8.5 | Financials | 34.1 | 2.13 | 57% | Robinhood Strikes Deal With Crypto.com in Latest Prediction-Markets PushprofitableExtended FWD P/EExpensive PEGY (>2) |
| META | +5.8 | Communication Services | 18.7 | 0.81 | 49% | Meta Stock Jumps 6.6% on Muse—What the Rally AssumesUNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
| BE | +5.1 | Industrials | 54.7 | 0.57 | 72% | Bloom EnergyprofitablePEGY < 0.75Extended FWD P/E |
| VRT | +2.8 | Industrials | 28.8 | 0.95 | 53% | A Long-Term Bullish Trade Might Be The Ticket For This Stockprofitable |
| CHWY | +2.7 | Consumer Discretionary | 11.3 | 0.47 | 14% | Why Chewy Stock Is Sinking TodayprofitablePEGY < 0.75Fwd P/E < 15 |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
NO TRADE: every ranked play has a negative expected net gain after costs in the current regime. The table is a relative ordering, not a buy list.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CHWY | LONG | 44.1% | -0.18 | -0.44 | -1.07 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 2.8); Valuation corroborated (PEGY/fwd-PE/EV checks); Quality: F-score 7/9; ⚠ Earnings in 0d — event risk inside hold window |
| 2 | PLTR | LONG | 41.8% | -0.23 | -0.43 | -0.34 | Accelerating velocity +7.2 (4 mentions/12h); Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 3 | VRT | LONG | 42.9% | -0.21 | -0.43 | -0.69 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 2.9); Accelerating velocity +5.0 (2 mentions/12h) |
| 4 | META | LONG | 42.9% | -0.21 | -0.43 | -0.69 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 5.9); Accelerating velocity +22.5 (11 mentions/12h); ⚠ UNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
| 5 | BE | LONG | 44.1% | -0.18 | -0.44 | -1.07 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 5.1); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E |
| 6 | RIVN | LONG | 41.8% | -0.23 | -0.43 | -0.34 | Accelerating velocity +7.0 (2 mentions/12h) |
| 7 | UBER | LONG | 41.8% | -0.23 | -0.43 | -0.34 | Accelerating velocity +6.0 (3 mentions/12h) |
| 8 | CHTR | LONG | 42.4% | -0.43 | -0.44 | +0.27 | Despair reversion: sentiment -4 but undervalued; Quality: F-score 7/9 |
Engine hit rate 44.0% over 409 scored calls (lower bound 39.3%), average net alpha -0.186%. Serving: rules.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
Phase 2 trial results are a primary value driver for biotech stocks; a 30% plunge indicates the market is pricing in a significant impairment of the lead asset's efficacy or safety, which is a correctness-binary outcome with-out a high probability of immediate recovery.
2026-09-09 13:04A Phase 3 primary endpoint miss in a late-stage pipeline asset is a fundamental devaluation event that outweighs the platform-based bull thesis in the short-to-medium term.
2026-09-08 11:19The collapse of a $14.5 billion combination removes a massive valuation floor and exposes the stock to a severe correction as the market prices in the risk of due diligence failure.
2026-09-06 23:23A 44% drop following a failed drug trial is a fundamental re-rating of the company's valuation based on lost projected cash flows, not a temporary dip.
2026-09-04 23:49A revenue beat is a backward-looking metric; the market is pricing in a structural growth slowdown and the potential obsolescence of traditional RPA in the face of Generative AI.
2026-09-04 15:03Snowflake's 23% surge on AI-fueled guidance raise is a powerful catalyst, but conviction is capped to avoid the 'strategic narrative trap' by accounting for the gap between projected guidance and realized execution.
2026-09-03 14:41The loss of a $53 billion safety net represents a significant removal of liquidity and financial cushioning, exposing the company to competitive pressures and lack of innovation, which the market typically views as a a catastrophic removal of life support rather than a strategic pivot.
2026-08-30 20:02The removal of a speculative buyout premium creates a vacuum in the valuation, as the stock was trading on a rumor-driven floor rather than organic fundamentals.
2026-08-29 01:21VREX is a bullish catalyst due to the acquisition by Teledyne, but the majority of the premium is likely already priced in, limiting further upside potential and now shifting the risk-reward profile to an arbitrage play rather than a a growth story.
2026-08-28 06:20While Meta's settlement caps the legal risk for the sector, the asymmetry of the balance sheet risk creates an existential threat for Snap, as any similar liability would be liquidated by a fraction of the cost Meta can absorb.
2026-08-28 04:16Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
| Ticker | Velocity | Vol | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| META | +22.5 | 11 | Meta Stock Jumps 6.6% on Muse—What the Rally Assumes |
| UBER | +9.0 | 4 | Uber’s Wayve Deal Shows How It Wants to Win Without Building Cars |
| PLTR | +7.2 | 4 | Palantir's CEO says a new partner will power data sovereignty |
| RIVN | +7.0 | 2 | Rivian's Much-Hyped R2 Is About More Than Boosting Sales -- Here's the Hidden Value |
| VRT | +5.0 | 2 | A Long-Term Bullish Trade Might Be The Ticket For This Stock |
Change in scored coverage over the last 12 hours versus the prior 12.
| BRZE | -6.4 | Braze Sinks 12% as Soft Earnings Guide Overshadows Beat and Raise; Klaviyo Advances 3% |
| MELI | -3.3 | MercadoLibre stock falls as company taps debt markets |
| PATH | -3.0 | UiPath Slips 3% Despite Citi Buy Initiation and $23 Target, Pegasystems and C3.ai Lag |
| TYRA | -2.6 | Tyra Biosciences stock tumbles 30% on phase 2 trial results |
| CHTR | -2.4 | Comcast Sinks 8%, Charter Drops 6%, T-Mobile Slips 3%: Is a Broadband Repricing Underway? |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy | +296 | +1,142 | +2,581 | |
| Financials | +124 | +753 | +2,408 | |
| Information Technology | +80 | +644 | +2,358 | |
| Materials | +4 | +87 | +415 | |
| Communication Services | +10 | +64 | +99 | |
| Health Carebearish reversal | -10 | -56 | +94 | |
| Consumer Staples | -36 | -192 | -562 | |
| Industrials | -146 | -358 | -611 | |
| Utilities | -64 | -460 | -1,649 | |
| Consumer Discretionary | -196 | -744 | -1,774 | |
| Real Estate | -62 | -878 | -3,359 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil Prices | +102.0 | +172 | |
| Artificial Intelligence | +23.7 | +267 | |
| Interest Rates | +21.7 | -132 | |
| Fintech | +20.5 | +32 | |
| Geopolitical Tension | -24.3 | -50 | |
| Cryptocurrency | -32.5 | +5 | |
| Geopolitical Conflict | -34.2 | -57 | |
| Inflation | -81.8 | -144 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Theme | Sources | Conviction | |
|---|---|---|---|
| defense security | 175 | 68 | |
| healthcare policy | 158 | 64 | |
| geopolitics | 152 | 75 | |
| financial regulation | 132 | 75 | |
| transport mobility | 128 | 64 | |
| agriculture food | 105 | 56 | |
| monetary policy | 99 | 68 | |
| trade policy | 93 | 82 | |
| infrastructure | 90 | 75 | |
| education skills | 86 | 60 |
A slower reading than the panels above. Sources counts the documents behind a theme; conviction weighs how many independent sources agree, how recent they are and how strong the signal is. Moves over weeks, not hours.
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Short-term | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLTR | Palantir Technologies | 582 | — | — |
| Provides AI-driven intelligence software used in strategic defense and crisis management. data privacy, defense security, financial regulation, geopolitics | ||||
| NEE | NextEra Energy | 559 | — | — |
| Investment in domestic energy security and grid modernization infrastructure. climate policy, energy policy, financial regulation, geopolitics | ||||
| SBGSY | Schneider Electric | 395 | — | — |
| Provides energy management and automation for resilient, decarbonized industrial infrastructure. climate policy, energy policy, financial regulation, infrastructure | ||||
| ACN | Accenture | 378 | +2.1 | aligned |
| Large-scale global provider of public sector consulting and government technology implementation. banking, defense security, education skills, financial regulation | ||||
| LMT | Lockheed Martin | 336 | — | — |
| Primary supplier of F-35s and missile systems critical for NATO deterrence. defense security, financial regulation, geopolitics, technology regulation | ||||
| DE | Deere & Company | 322 | — | — |
| Agricultural equipment demand grows domestically as US farm subsidies expand under protectionist policies. agriculture food, financial regulation, geopolitics, technology regulation | ||||
| CNR | Canadian National Railway | 277 | — | — |
| Heavy reliance on trade volumes moving between Canada and the United States. energy policy, infrastructure, monetary policy, trade policy | ||||
| CAT | Caterpillar | 269 | — | — |
| Manufacturer of heavy equipment for building regional manufacturing facilities in new supply chain hubs climate policy, geopolitics, labor markets, supply chain | ||||
| CRWD | CrowdStrike | 253 | — | — |
| Increased state-sponsored cyber threats drive demand for endpoint protection and threat intelligence. defense security, financial regulation, geopolitics, technology regulation | ||||
| TSLA | Tesla | 247 | — | — |
| Produces utility-scale battery storage solutions (Megapack) for grid stability. climate policy, energy policy, oil and gas, transport mobility | ||||
Weight is how prominently a company features across the document corpus, with the reason for its exposure underneath. These are the names that recur in policy and regulatory material, which is a different population from the tickers moving on today's news. Where a name also has a current sentiment score, both are shown: aligned means they point the same way, diverging means one horizon has not caught up with the other.
US-Canada trade frictions disrupt automotive and agricultural cross-border supply chains
1. Tariffs on motor vehicles increase costs for the highly integrated North American automotive assembly line, where parts often cross borders multiple times. 2. Ad valorem duties on cheese and alcohol reduce the price competitiveness of Canadian exports in the US market, potentially shifting consumer demand toward domestic US alternatives. 3. Canada's pursuit of economic independence may lead to subsidies or protect
Better placed: domestic US dairy production, US alcoholic beverage manufacturers, US-based automotive component suppliers, Canadian domestic consumption sectors
More exposed: Canadian automotive exports, Canadian dairy and alcohol exporters, cross-border logistics and freight, integrated North American auto assembly
Named: MGA, CNR, SAP, BUD, GM
What would break this: A rapid diplomatic resolution or a renegotiation of the USMCA framework would eliminate tariffs and restore trade flows.
Routine RBI operations signal monetary stability and predictable credit conditions in India
1. The continuation of standard operational cycles suggests a lack of immediate, disruptive shifts in interest rate policy. 2. Regular government securities auctions ensure consistent funding for public spending and infrastructure projects. 3. Ongoing regulatory oversight reduces systemic risk within the banking sector by maintaining compliance standards. 4. Data-driven inputs from inflation and consumer surveys allo
Better placed: commercial banking, government infrastructure projects, fixed income asset management, corporate credit markets
More exposed: currency speculators, high-volatility short-term debt instruments
Named: HDB, IBKI, SBIN, RELIANCE
What would break this: A sudden shift from routine operations to emergency liquidity injections or unexpected aggressive rate hikes would invalidate the stability thesis.
NATO expansion and global stability efforts drive strategic defense and security spending
1. NATO reinforcements in the High North and Eastern Flank necessitate increased procurement of advanced weaponry, surveillance systems, and military infrastructure to maintain deterrence. 2. The shift toward 'strategic deterrence' favors high-tech defense capabilities including missile defense and cyber warfare tools. 3. UN-led cooperation on climate adaptation and cross-border crime increases demand for specialized
Better placed: aerospace and defense, cybersecurity, satellite communications, military logistics
More exposed: non-aligned arms exporters, traditional diplomatic consulting (shifting to security-led diplomacy), unsecured cross-border trade logistics
Named: LMT, RHM.DE, PLTR, NOC, AIR.PA
What would break this: A sudden diplomatic breakthrough leading to comprehensive disarmament treaties or a significant reduction in NATO funding commitments would invalidate the growth thesis.
RBI regulatory tightening and liquidity drains pressure Indian banking operational margins
1. Increased monetary penalties for non-compliance with customer compensation and credit reporting raise direct operational costs for financial institutions. 2. Stricter loan pricing regulations limit the ability of lenders to aggressively adjust rates, potentially squeezing net interest margins (NIMs). 3. The use of Variable Rate Reverse Repos (VRRRs) and T-Bill auctions removes excess liquidity from the banking sys
Better placed: RegTech software providers, compliance consultancy services, government securities markets
More exposed: retail commercial banks, non-banking financial companies (NBFCs), aggressive consumer credit lenders
Named: TCS.NS, BAJFINANCE.N, HDB, INFY
What would break this: A shift toward a more accommodative monetary policy or a relaxation of compliance timelines would mitigate the pressure on banking margins.
RBI liquidity absorption likely to increase short-term borrowing costs and bond yields
The RBI's use of VRRR auctions removes excess cash from the commercial banking system. This reduction in available liquidity typically puts upward pressure on overnight interbank call rates. As banks have less surplus capital to deploy, demand for government securities (G-Secs) may soften, leading to higher yields and lower bond prices. Consequently, entities relying on short-term wholesale funding or bank credit fac
Better placed: short-term money market funds, banks with high CASA ratios, floating rate debt instruments
More exposed: non-banking financial companies (NBFCs), highly leveraged corporate borrowers, long-duration government bond holders
Named: HDB, BAJAJFIN, LICI, SBIN
What would break this: A sudden surge in government spending or a massive influx of foreign portfolio investment (FPI) could offset the VRRR absorption, maintaining liquidity levels.
RBI liquidity absorption likely to elevate short-term borrowing costs and pressure NBFCs
The RBI's use of VRRR auctions removes excess cash from the banking system, reducing the supply of loanable funds. This typically leads to an increase in interbank call money rates. As funding becomes tighter, banks may raise lending rates to maintain net interest margins (NIMs), which increases the cost of capital for corporate borrowers and Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) that rely on bank credit rather tha
Better placed: short-duration fixed income, high-quality banks with strong deposit franchises, cash-rich corporations
More exposed: non-banking financial companies (NBFCs), highly leveraged corporate borrowers, banks with high reliance on wholesale funding
Named: HDB, SBIN, BAJAJFIN, RELIANCE
What would break this: A sudden shift toward monetary easing or an unexpected surge in foreign portfolio investment (FPI) inflows could offset the RBI's absorption efforts.
RBI liquidity absorption via VRRRs likely to tighten short-term credit conditions
1. RBI uses VRRR auctions to remove excess cash from the banking system. 2. Reduced systemic liquidity typically puts upward pressure on interbank call money rates and short-term yields. 3. As banks face tighter liquidity, they may increase lending rates to maintain net interest margins (NIMs). 4. This increases the cost of capital for corporate borrowers and reduces available credit for highly leveraged sectors.
Better placed: short-term debt instruments, banks with high CASA ratios, liquid fund managers
More exposed: highly leveraged corporates, non-banking financial companies (NBFCs), real estate development, wholesale funding dependent sectors
Named: HDB, SBIN, BAJFINANCE, DLF
What would break this: A sudden shift in RBI policy toward accommodation or a massive influx of foreign portfolio investment (FPI) could offset the liquidity absorption.
RBI liquidity absorption tightens monetary conditions and pressures banking net interest margins
1. The RBI uses Variable Rate Reverse Repo (VRRR) auctions to remove excess cash from the commercial banking system. 2. This reduction in systemic liquidity typically leads to an increase in short-term interbank lending rates. 3. As banks face higher costs for funding and liquidity management, their cost of funds increases. 4. If these increased costs cannot be immediately passed on to borrowers via higher loan rates
Better placed: short-duration debt funds, money market instruments, liquid fund managers
More exposed: commercial banking sector, highly leveraged corporate borrowers, credit-sensitive sectors like real estate
Named: HDB, IBN, SBIN, RELIANCE
What would break this: A sudden influx of government spending or foreign portfolio investment (FPI) inflows could offset the RBI's absorption efforts, maintaining liquidity levels.
Readings drawn from the document corpus, not from price action. Each carries the case against it, because a view without a stated way to be wrong is not worth much. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell anything.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Markov Regime Engine | UP | 75% |
| Macro Factor Gate | UP | 55% |
Consensus: BULLISH
Model failed validation: out-of-sample error 0.7592% is worse than the 0.2772% predict-zero baseline. Projection withheld until a weekly retrain produces a model that beats the baseline.
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 11.4% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 56% |
| Variance risk premium | +4.6 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.52% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.40% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.54% |
Premium in normal range — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.04 in-sample / -0.08 OOS, worst -0.08) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil & Gas | 0.81 | 0.9h | ELEVATED |
| Interest Rates | 0.73 | 0.8h | ELEVATED |
| Stock Market | 0.61 | 1.0h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Monetary Policy | 0.61 | 4.0h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Geopolitical Tension | 0.58 | 2.9h | SUBCRITICAL |
| FinTech | 0.53 | 1.1h | SUBCRITICAL |
| M&A | 0.51 | 1.5h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Cloud & Data Centers | 0.46 | 0.7h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 1,091 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 1,150 |
| Projected close of day | 1,200 |
| Daily average | 1,325 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 0.85× |
| Total in corpus | 188,142 |
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.
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