A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login to read it.
Regime read: LONG · expected +2.67% ± 5.30% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.50 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Bull (70.6% posterior, +38.4%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.1046%/day and dominates. Net +0.1073%/day.
Same hours, earlier readings — the fastest way to see whether today is unusual.
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLTR | +14.2 | Information Technology | 72.0 | 1.63 | 60% | Nvidia and Palantir want to speed up the AI buildout. Nvidia is first in lineprofitableExtended FWD P/EMean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
| BE | +7.8 | Industrials | 55.9 | 0.61 | 74% | Stock Of The Day: AI Energy Play Bloom Energy Nears Buy Point, S&P 500 EntryprofitablePEGY < 0.75Extended FWD P/EMean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
| HOOD | +7.7 | Financials | 33.3 | 2.01 | 55% | Robinhood Crypto Trading Volume Jumps 61% in AugustprofitableExtended FWD P/EExpensive PEGY (>2) |
| QRVO | +5.7 | Information Technology | 14.7 | 0.97 | 91% | Skyworks Rises 7%, Qorvo Gains 5% as CEO Says $22B Merger Is in Final Stages; Qualcomm Ticks UpprofitableFwd P/E < 15Price > Analyst TargetNear 52w High |
| META | +5.0 | Communication Services | 18.5 | 0.85 | 47% | CoreWeave Is My Top IPO Pick Right Now: Over 75% of Its Revenue Is Locked In Through ContractsUNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
NO TRADE: every ranked play has a negative expected net gain after costs in the current regime. The table is a relative ordering, not a buy list.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PYPL | LONG | 42.6% | -0.32 | -0.44 | -0.18 | Accelerating velocity +4.4 (2 mentions/12h); Quality: F-score 9/9 |
| 2 | META | LONG | 43.5% | -0.22 | -0.46 | -1.11 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 5.0); ⚠ UNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
| 3 | PATH | LONG | 42.0% | -0.44 | -0.46 | +0.03 | Despair reversion: sentiment -6 but undervalued; Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 4 | QRVO | LONG | 42.9% | -0.29 | -0.45 | -0.48 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 5.8); Accelerating velocity +7.0 (2 mentions/12h); ⚠ Price > Analyst Target; Near 52w High; Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 5 | MRNA | LONG | 41.5% | -0.27 | -0.47 | -0.37 | Accelerating velocity +5.6 (2 mentions/12h) |
| 6 | PLTR | LONG | 42.5% | -0.24 | -0.47 | -0.73 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 14.3); Accelerating velocity +6.6 (4 mentions/12h); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Mean Reversion: Euphoria (Short); Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 7 | ACN | LONG | 42.0% | -0.44 | -0.46 | +0.03 | High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum |
| 8 | AFRM | LONG | 42.0% | -0.44 | -0.46 | +0.03 | High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum |
Engine hit rate 42.6% over 430 scored calls (lower bound 38.0%), average net alpha -0.261%. Serving: rules.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
A $22B merger between Qorvo and Skyworks is a massive structural shift in the RF semiconductor market, but conviction is tempered by significant antitrust regulatory risk.
2026-09-11 14:33Guidance slash and board review signal systemic operational failure and a loss of management own-ship, which typically outweighs any speculative 'spring-loading' or buyout theories.
2026-09-10 12:43Phase 2 trial results are a primary value driver for biotech stocks; a 30% plunge indicates the market is pricing in a significant impairment of the lead asset's efficacy or safety, which is a correctness-binary outcome with-out a high probability of immediate recovery.
2026-09-09 13:04A Phase 3 primary endpoint miss in a late-stage pipeline asset is a fundamental devaluation event that outweighs the platform-based bull thesis in the short-to-medium term.
2026-09-08 11:19The collapse of a $14.5 billion combination removes a massive valuation floor and exposes the stock to a severe correction as the market prices in the risk of due diligence failure.
2026-09-06 23:23A 44% drop following a failed drug trial is a fundamental re-rating of the company's valuation based on lost projected cash flows, not a temporary dip.
2026-09-04 23:49A revenue beat is a backward-looking metric; the market is pricing in a structural growth slowdown and the potential obsolescence of traditional RPA in the face of Generative AI.
2026-09-04 15:03Snowflake's 23% surge on AI-fueled guidance raise is a powerful catalyst, but conviction is capped to avoid the 'strategic narrative trap' by accounting for the gap between projected guidance and realized execution.
2026-09-03 14:41The loss of a $53 billion safety net represents a significant removal of liquidity and financial cushioning, exposing the company to competitive pressures and lack of innovation, which the market typically views as a a catastrophic removal of life support rather than a strategic pivot.
2026-08-30 20:02The removal of a speculative buyout premium creates a vacuum in the valuation, as the stock was trading on a rumor-driven floor rather than organic fundamentals.
2026-08-29 01:21Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
| Ticker | Velocity | Vol | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| QRVO | +7.0 | 2 | Skyworks Rises 7%, Qorvo Gains 5% as CEO Says $22B Merger Is in Final Stages; Qualcomm Ticks Up |
| PLTR | +6.6 | 4 | Nvidia and Palantir want to speed up the AI buildout. Nvidia is first in line |
| BE | +5.8 | 3 | Stock Of The Day: AI Energy Play Bloom Energy Nears Buy Point, S&P 500 Entry |
| MRNA | +5.6 | 2 | Moderna Rallies 8% on 2026 Melt-Up Momentum Even While BioNTech and Merck Stay Flat |
| PYPL | +4.4 | 2 | Affirm Rallies 5% as Midweek Selloff Unwinds; Klarna and PayPal Tick Up |
Change in scored coverage over the last 12 hours versus the prior 12.
| CHWY | -4.7 | Why Chewy Stock Notched Its Worst Day in a Year |
| PATH | -3.6 | Is UiPath Stock A Buy After Falling Despite A Raised Outlook? |
| TYRA | -1.9 | Tyra Biosciences Stock Plunges 22% as Bladder Cancer Pill Fails to Impress |
| SFD | -1.8 | Smithfield Foods (SFD) Warns of Fresh Pork Loss as Industry Spreads Compress |
| Z | -1.6 | Zillow: Homebuyers drop anchor as mortgage rates rise |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy | +270 | +1,324 | +2,905 | |
| Financials | +117 | +724 | +2,436 | |
| Information Technology | +69 | +570 | +2,338 | |
| Materials | +35 | +95 | +449 | |
| Communication Services | +10 | +86 | +176 | |
| Health Care | +29 | -8 | +159 | |
| Consumer Staples | -18 | -145 | -521 | |
| Industrials | -44 | -437 | -662 | |
| Utilities | -97 | -466 | -1,768 | |
| Real Estate | -210 | -830 | -3,541 | |
| Consumer Discretionary | -157 | -917 | -1,970 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil Prices | +106.7 | +191 | |
| Cloud Computing | +16.5 | +40 | |
| Wealth Management | +14.7 | +20 | |
| Geopolitical Conflict | +12.0 | -22 | |
| Cryptocurrency | -26.2 | +4 | |
| Monetary Policy | -30.8 | -39 | |
| Interest Rates | -139.3 | -286 | |
| Inflation | -147.7 | -246 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Theme | Sources | Conviction | |
|---|---|---|---|
| defense security | 177 | 66 | |
| geopolitics | 149 | 68 | |
| healthcare policy | 136 | 63 | |
| financial regulation | 131 | 71 | |
| transport mobility | 124 | 63 | |
| infrastructure | 104 | 71 | |
| trade policy | 98 | 70 | |
| monetary policy | 95 | 67 | |
| agriculture food | 90 | 59 | |
| energy policy | 84 | 71 |
A slower reading than the panels above. Sources counts the documents behind a theme; conviction weighs how many independent sources agree, how recent they are and how strong the signal is. Moves over weeks, not hours.
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Short-term | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLTR | Palantir Technologies | 682 | +14.2 | aligned |
| Provides AI-driven intelligence software used in strategic defense and crisis management. data privacy, defense security, financial regulation, geopolitics | ||||
| NEE | NextEra Energy | 583 | — | — |
| Aligned with the push for domestic energy stability and modernization. capital markets, climate policy, energy policy, financial regulation | ||||
| ACN | Accenture | 539 | +2.8 | aligned |
| Consults large enterprises on digital transformation to meet new regulatory and reporting standards. banking, defense security, education skills, energy policy | ||||
| SBGSY | Schneider Electric | 374 | — | — |
| Provides energy management and automation for resilient, decarbonized industrial infrastructure. climate policy, energy policy, financial regulation, infrastructure | ||||
| DE | Deere & Company | 347 | — | — |
| Agricultural equipment demand grows domestically as US farm subsidies expand under protectionist policies. agriculture food, financial regulation, geopolitics, infrastructure | ||||
| LMT | Lockheed Martin | 329 | — | — |
| Primary supplier of F-35s and missile systems critical for NATO deterrence. defense security, financial regulation, geopolitics, technology regulation | ||||
| CAT | Caterpillar | 307 | — | — |
| Manufacturer of heavy equipment for building regional manufacturing facilities in new supply chain hubs climate policy, geopolitics, infrastructure, labor markets | ||||
| CNI | Canadian National Railway | 301 | — | — |
| Increased reliance on North American rail for resilient, regionalized supply chains. energy policy, infrastructure, monetary policy, trade policy | ||||
| SAP | SAP | 293 | — | — |
| Enterprise software used by banks to consolidate financial data and manage regulatory reporting. banking, financial regulation, infrastructure, labor markets | ||||
| TSLA | Tesla | 244 | — | — |
| Produces utility-scale battery storage solutions (Megapack) for grid stability. climate policy, energy policy, oil and gas, trade policy | ||||
Weight is how prominently a company features across the document corpus, with the reason for its exposure underneath. These are the names that recur in policy and regulatory material, which is a different population from the tickers moving on today's news. Where a name also has a current sentiment score, both are shown: aligned means they point the same way, diverging means one horizon has not caught up with the other.
Routine RBI operations signal monetary stability and predictable credit conditions in India
1. The continuation of standard operational cycles suggests a lack of immediate, disruptive shifts in interest rate policy. 2. Regular government securities auctions ensure consistent funding for public spending and infrastructure projects. 3. Ongoing regulatory oversight reduces systemic risk within the banking sector by maintaining compliance standards. 4. Data-driven inputs from inflation and consumer surveys allo
Better placed: commercial banking, government infrastructure projects, fixed income asset management, corporate credit markets
More exposed: currency speculators, high-volatility short-term debt instruments
Named: HDB, IBKI, SBIN, RELIANCE
What would break this: A sudden shift from routine operations to emergency liquidity injections or unexpected aggressive rate hikes would invalidate the stability thesis.
NATO expansion and global stability efforts drive strategic defense and security spending
1. NATO reinforcements in the High North and Eastern Flank necessitate increased procurement of advanced weaponry, surveillance systems, and military infrastructure to maintain deterrence. 2. The shift toward 'strategic deterrence' favors high-tech defense capabilities including missile defense and cyber warfare tools. 3. UN-led cooperation on climate adaptation and cross-border crime increases demand for specialized
Better placed: aerospace and defense, cybersecurity, satellite communications, military logistics
More exposed: non-aligned arms exporters, traditional diplomatic consulting (shifting to security-led diplomacy), unsecured cross-border trade logistics
Named: LMT, RHM.DE, PLTR, NOC, AIR.PA
What would break this: A sudden diplomatic breakthrough leading to comprehensive disarmament treaties or a significant reduction in NATO funding commitments would invalidate the growth thesis.
RBI regulatory tightening and liquidity drains pressure Indian banking operational margins
1. Increased monetary penalties for non-compliance with customer compensation and credit reporting raise direct operational costs for financial institutions. 2. Stricter loan pricing regulations limit the ability of lenders to aggressively adjust rates, potentially squeezing net interest margins (NIMs). 3. The use of Variable Rate Reverse Repos (VRRRs) and T-Bill auctions removes excess liquidity from the banking sys
Better placed: RegTech software providers, compliance consultancy services, government securities markets
More exposed: retail commercial banks, non-banking financial companies (NBFCs), aggressive consumer credit lenders
Named: TCS.NS, BAJFINANCE.N, HDB, INFY
What would break this: A shift toward a more accommodative monetary policy or a relaxation of compliance timelines would mitigate the pressure on banking margins.
RBI liquidity absorption likely to increase short-term borrowing costs and bond yields
The RBI's use of VRRR auctions removes excess cash from the commercial banking system. This reduction in available liquidity typically puts upward pressure on overnight interbank call rates. As banks have less surplus capital to deploy, demand for government securities (G-Secs) may soften, leading to higher yields and lower bond prices. Consequently, entities relying on short-term wholesale funding or bank credit fac
Better placed: short-term money market funds, banks with high CASA ratios, floating rate debt instruments
More exposed: non-banking financial companies (NBFCs), highly leveraged corporate borrowers, long-duration government bond holders
Named: HDB, BAJAJFIN, LICI, SBIN
What would break this: A sudden surge in government spending or a massive influx of foreign portfolio investment (FPI) could offset the VRRR absorption, maintaining liquidity levels.
RBI liquidity absorption likely to elevate short-term borrowing costs and pressure NBFCs
The RBI's use of VRRR auctions removes excess cash from the banking system, reducing the supply of loanable funds. This typically leads to an increase in interbank call money rates. As funding becomes tighter, banks may raise lending rates to maintain net interest margins (NIMs), which increases the cost of capital for corporate borrowers and Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) that rely on bank credit rather tha
Better placed: short-duration fixed income, high-quality banks with strong deposit franchises, cash-rich corporations
More exposed: non-banking financial companies (NBFCs), highly leveraged corporate borrowers, banks with high reliance on wholesale funding
Named: HDB, SBIN, BAJAJFIN, RELIANCE
What would break this: A sudden shift toward monetary easing or an unexpected surge in foreign portfolio investment (FPI) inflows could offset the RBI's absorption efforts.
RBI liquidity absorption via VRRRs likely to tighten short-term credit conditions
1. RBI uses VRRR auctions to remove excess cash from the banking system. 2. Reduced systemic liquidity typically puts upward pressure on interbank call money rates and short-term yields. 3. As banks face tighter liquidity, they may increase lending rates to maintain net interest margins (NIMs). 4. This increases the cost of capital for corporate borrowers and reduces available credit for highly leveraged sectors.
Better placed: short-term debt instruments, banks with high CASA ratios, liquid fund managers
More exposed: highly leveraged corporates, non-banking financial companies (NBFCs), real estate development, wholesale funding dependent sectors
Named: HDB, SBIN, BAJFINANCE, DLF
What would break this: A sudden shift in RBI policy toward accommodation or a massive influx of foreign portfolio investment (FPI) could offset the liquidity absorption.
RBI liquidity absorption tightens monetary conditions and pressures banking net interest margins
1. The RBI uses Variable Rate Reverse Repo (VRRR) auctions to remove excess cash from the commercial banking system. 2. This reduction in systemic liquidity typically leads to an increase in short-term interbank lending rates. 3. As banks face higher costs for funding and liquidity management, their cost of funds increases. 4. If these increased costs cannot be immediately passed on to borrowers via higher loan rates
Better placed: short-duration debt funds, money market instruments, liquid fund managers
More exposed: commercial banking sector, highly leveraged corporate borrowers, credit-sensitive sectors like real estate
Named: HDB, IBN, SBIN, RELIANCE
What would break this: A sudden influx of government spending or foreign portfolio investment (FPI) inflows could offset the RBI's absorption efforts, maintaining liquidity levels.
Regulatory clarity boosts digital payment innovation and crypto compliance
Regulators are developing frameworks to foster payment innovation while extending oversight to AI-driven tools and crypto services. Australia's A2A Payments Roadmap enables real-time interoperability, UK mandates drive bank-led innovation, and HMRC reporting rules create structured crypto compliance requirements. This reduces uncertainty for compliant digital payment providers and crypto platforms that integrate regu
Better placed: real-time payment infrastructure, crypto compliance solutions, digital wallet platforms
More exposed: legacy bank payment systems, non-compliant crypto service providers
Named: PYPL, COIN, FIT, MA
What would break this: Overly restrictive regulations stifling innovation (e.g., excessive transaction fees), or global regulatory fragmentation causing compliance costs to exceed market growth potential.
Readings drawn from the document corpus, not from price action. Each carries the case against it, because a view without a stated way to be wrong is not worth much. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell anything.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Markov Regime Engine | UP | 68% |
| Macro Factor Gate | UP | 55% |
Consensus: BULLISH
Model failed validation: out-of-sample error 0.9875% is worse than the 0.2999% predict-zero baseline. Projection withheld until a weekly retrain produces a model that beats the baseline.
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 11.4% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 56% |
| Variance risk premium | +3.9 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.52% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.39% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.52% |
Premium in normal range — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.05 in-sample / -0.08 OOS, worst -0.08) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil & Gas | 0.85 | 1.4h | ELEVATED |
| Inflation | 0.83 | 1.7h | ELEVATED |
| Interest Rates | 0.65 | 0.6h | SUBCRITICAL |
| FinTech | 0.57 | 1.3h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Retirement Planning | 0.54 | 1.3h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Cloud & Data Centers | 0.50 | 0.6h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Market Volatility | 0.50 | 1.0h | SUBCRITICAL |
| M&A | 0.45 | 0.9h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 1,155 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 1,529 |
| Projected close of day | 1,352 |
| Daily average | 1,326 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 1.02× |
| Total in corpus | 190,969 |
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.
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