A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login to read it.
Regime read: LONG · expected +2.74% ± 5.27% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.52 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Bull (73.5% posterior, +38.3%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.1081%/day and dominates. Net +0.1114%/day.
Same hours, earlier readings — the fastest way to see whether today is unusual.
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLTR | +6.2 | Information Technology | 71.9 | 1.61 | 60% | Michael Burry Is Staying Short Nvidia, Palantir, and Tesla, Warning of a Possible "1987-Type Fall" for AI Stocks. Should Investors Take the Bet Seriously?profitableExtended FWD P/E |
| HOOD | +4.6 | Financials | 33.2 | 1.97 | 54% | Robinhood CEO Analyzes Stock Tokenization: Do Issuers Have the Right to Consent? How Does Tokenization Change Global Financial Markets?profitableExtended FWD P/E |
| GS | +3.1 | Financials | 13.9 | 1.10 | 70% | Investment giant Goldman Sachs announced it expects the Fed to raise interest rates! Here’s the expected increase rateprofitableFwd P/E < 15 |
| UBER | +2.8 | Information Technology | 16.3 | 6.08 | 17% | TESLA is the new UBERprofitableExpensive PEGY (>2) |
| AFRM | +2.6 | Financials | 14.4 | 8.67 | 58% | Goldman Sachs Is Bullish. Here Are 3 Reasons AFRM Stock Could Climb 69%.profitableFwd P/E < 15Expensive PEGY (>2)Mean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
NO TRADE: every ranked play has a negative expected net gain after costs in the current regime. The table is a relative ordering, not a buy list.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BKR | LONG | 42.7% | -0.32 | -0.44 | -0.21 | Accelerating velocity +6.8 (2 mentions/12h); Quality: F-score 7/9 |
| 2 | UBER | LONG | 43.5% | -0.22 | -0.46 | -1.11 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 2.9); ⚠ Expensive PEGY (>2); Insider cluster buying (2 buys/90d) |
| 3 | GS | LONG | 43.0% | -0.29 | -0.45 | -0.49 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 3.1); Accelerating velocity +4.4 (2 mentions/12h) |
| 4 | PLTR | LONG | 43.5% | -0.22 | -0.46 | -1.11 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 6.2); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 5 | HOOD | LONG | 43.5% | -0.22 | -0.46 | -1.11 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 4.6); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E |
| 6 | SPCX | LONG | 41.5% | -0.27 | -0.47 | -0.38 | Accelerating velocity +1.4 (2 mentions/12h) |
| 7 | AFRM | LONG | 43.5% | -0.22 | -0.46 | -1.11 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 2.6); ⚠ Expensive PEGY (>2); Mean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
| 8 | UPST | LONG | 0.0% | — | — | — | CIO meta-model current selection |
Engine hit rate 42.4% over 448 scored calls (lower bound 37.9%), average net alpha -0.262%. Serving: rules.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
A $22B merger between Qorvo and Skyworks is a massive structural shift in the RF semiconductor market, but conviction is tempered by significant antitrust regulatory risk.
2026-09-11 14:33Guidance slash and board review signal systemic operational failure and a loss of management own-ship, which typically outweighs any speculative 'spring-loading' or buyout theories.
2026-09-10 12:43Phase 2 trial results are a primary value driver for biotech stocks; a 30% plunge indicates the market is pricing in a significant impairment of the lead asset's efficacy or safety, which is a correctness-binary outcome with-out a high probability of immediate recovery.
2026-09-09 13:04A Phase 3 primary endpoint miss in a late-stage pipeline asset is a fundamental devaluation event that outweighs the platform-based bull thesis in the short-to-medium term.
2026-09-08 11:19The collapse of a $14.5 billion combination removes a massive valuation floor and exposes the stock to a severe correction as the market prices in the risk of due diligence failure.
2026-09-06 23:23A 44% drop following a failed drug trial is a fundamental re-rating of the company's valuation based on lost projected cash flows, not a temporary dip.
2026-09-04 23:49A revenue beat is a backward-looking metric; the market is pricing in a structural growth slowdown and the potential obsolescence of traditional RPA in the face of Generative AI.
2026-09-04 15:03Snowflake's 23% surge on AI-fueled guidance raise is a powerful catalyst, but conviction is capped to avoid the 'strategic narrative trap' by accounting for the gap between projected guidance and realized execution.
2026-09-03 14:41The loss of a $53 billion safety net represents a significant removal of liquidity and financial cushioning, exposing the company to competitive pressures and lack of innovation, which the market typically views as a a catastrophic removal of life support rather than a strategic pivot.
2026-08-30 20:02Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
| Ticker | Velocity | Vol | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| BKR | +6.8 | 2 | CNBC Daily Open: 'Whoever wins AI, wins' |
| GS | +4.4 | 2 | Investment giant Goldman Sachs announced it expects the Fed to raise interest rates! Here’s the expected increase rate |
| SPCX | +1.4 | 2 | Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX)’s $100 Billion Starbase Bet Could Transform Its Growth Outlook |
Change in scored coverage over the last 12 hours versus the prior 12.
| CHWY | -2.4 | Is Chewy’s (CHWY) Margin Story Losing Steam, or Is a 48% Drop the Opportunity? |
| PATH | -2.2 | UiPath, Inc. (PATH) Stock Has AI Potential, But Slowing Growth Keeps Investors Cautious |
| BRZE | -1.4 | Why Braze Stock Plummeted This Week |
| BABA | -1.2 | Alibaba and Amazon Face the Same AI Spending Question: How Quickly Does Capacity Become Cash? |
| REAL | -1.1 | The RealReal (REAL) Posts Record Sales, But The Losses Keep Growing |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy | +125 | +1,496 | +3,302 | |
| Financials | +98 | +776 | +2,389 | |
| Information Technology | +12 | +538 | +2,097 | |
| Communication Services | +13 | +76 | +221 | |
| Materials | +2 | +74 | +517 | |
| Health Care | +6 | +28 | +242 | |
| Consumer Staples | -15 | -122 | -407 | |
| Industrials | -14 | -426 | -627 | |
| Utilities | -53 | -552 | -1,876 | |
| Real Estate | -84 | -916 | -3,719 | |
| Consumer Discretionary | -89 | -972 | -2,140 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation | +96.5 | -47 | |
| Interest Rates | +59.3 | -134 | |
| Geopolitical Conflict | +30.2 | -4 | |
| Geopolitical Risk | +21.3 | -6 | |
| Cryptocurrency | -23.8 | -4 | |
| Semiconductors | -40.0 | +7 | |
| Oil Prices | -81.3 | +41 | |
| Artificial Intelligence | -150.7 | +116 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Markov Regime Engine | UP | 68% |
| Macro Factor Gate | UP | 55% |
Consensus: BULLISH
Model failed validation: out-of-sample error 0.7703% is worse than the 0.3355% predict-zero baseline. Projection withheld until a weekly retrain produces a model that beats the baseline.
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 11.2% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 55% |
| Variance risk premium | +4.0 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.52% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.39% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.53% |
Premium in normal range — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.05 in-sample / -0.05 OOS, worst -0.05) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil & Gas | 0.77 | 1.1h | ELEVATED |
| Inflation | 0.73 | 1.2h | ELEVATED |
| Interest Rates | 0.60 | 0.5h | SUBCRITICAL |
| M&A | 0.53 | 1.4h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Crypto & Digital Assets | 0.50 | 1.0h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Cloud & Data Centers | 0.49 | 0.8h | SUBCRITICAL |
| FinTech | 0.48 | 1.0h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Semiconductors | 0.47 | 1.0h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 225 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 885 |
| Projected close of day | 1,048 |
| Daily average | 1,324 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 0.54× |
| Total in corpus | 193,305 |
Coverage volume is unusually low; treat every reading below as provisional.
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.
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