A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login to read it.
Regime read: LONG · expected +2.74% ± 5.27% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.52 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Bull (73.5% posterior, +38.3%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.1081%/day and dominates. Net +0.1114%/day.
Same hours, earlier readings — the fastest way to see whether today is unusual.
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLTR | +5.5 | Information Technology | 71.9 | 1.61 | 60% | Michael Burry Is Staying Short Nvidia, Palantir, and Tesla, Warning of a Possible "1987-Type Fall" for AI Stocks. Should Investors Take the Bet Seriously?profitableExtended FWD P/E |
| HOOD | +4.1 | Financials | 33.2 | 1.97 | 54% | Robinhood's New Blockchain Is Now Making More Money Than Ethereum. Does That Make Robinhood Stock a Buy?profitableExtended FWD P/E |
| GS | +2.7 | Financials | 13.9 | 1.10 | — | Investment giant Goldman Sachs announced it expects the Fed to raise interest rates! Here’s the expected increase rateprofitableFwd P/E < 15 |
| ARHS | +2.6 | Consumer Discretionary | 14.3 | — | 39% | Arhaus (ARHS) Turns A Tariff Refund Into A Blowout QuarterprofitableFwd P/E < 15 |
| UBER | +2.5 | Information Technology | 16.3 | 6.08 | 17% | TESLA is the new UBERprofitableExpensive PEGY (>2) |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
NO TRADE: every ranked play has a negative expected net gain after costs in the current regime. The table is a relative ordering, not a buy list.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BKR | LONG | 42.7% | -0.32 | -0.44 | -0.21 | Accelerating velocity +6.8 (2 mentions/12h); Quality: F-score 7/9 |
| 2 | UBER | LONG | 43.5% | -0.22 | -0.46 | -1.11 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 2.5); ⚠ Expensive PEGY (>2); Insider cluster buying (2 buys/90d) |
| 3 | GS | LONG | 43.5% | -0.22 | -0.46 | -1.11 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 2.8) |
| 4 | ARHS | LONG | 43.5% | -0.22 | -0.46 | -1.11 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 2.6) |
| 5 | PLTR | LONG | 43.5% | -0.22 | -0.46 | -1.11 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 5.6); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 6 | HOOD | LONG | 43.5% | -0.22 | -0.46 | -1.11 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 4.1); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E |
| 7 | SPCX | LONG | 41.5% | -0.27 | -0.47 | -0.38 | Accelerating velocity +1.4 (2 mentions/12h) |
| 8 | UPST | LONG | 0.0% | — | — | — | CIO meta-model current selection |
Engine hit rate 42.4% over 448 scored calls (lower bound 37.9%), average net alpha -0.262%. Serving: rules.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
A $22B merger between Qorvo and Skyworks is a massive structural shift in the RF semiconductor market, but conviction is tempered by significant antitrust regulatory risk.
2026-09-11 14:33Guidance slash and board review signal systemic operational failure and a loss of management own-ship, which typically outweighs any speculative 'spring-loading' or buyout theories.
2026-09-10 12:43Phase 2 trial results are a primary value driver for biotech stocks; a 30% plunge indicates the market is pricing in a significant impairment of the lead asset's efficacy or safety, which is a correctness-binary outcome with-out a high probability of immediate recovery.
2026-09-09 13:04A Phase 3 primary endpoint miss in a late-stage pipeline asset is a fundamental devaluation event that outweighs the platform-based bull thesis in the short-to-medium term.
2026-09-08 11:19The collapse of a $14.5 billion combination removes a massive valuation floor and exposes the stock to a severe correction as the market prices in the risk of due diligence failure.
2026-09-06 23:23A 44% drop following a failed drug trial is a fundamental re-rating of the company's valuation based on lost projected cash flows, not a temporary dip.
2026-09-04 23:49A revenue beat is a backward-looking metric; the market is pricing in a structural growth slowdown and the potential obsolescence of traditional RPA in the face of Generative AI.
2026-09-04 15:03Snowflake's 23% surge on AI-fueled guidance raise is a powerful catalyst, but conviction is capped to avoid the 'strategic narrative trap' by accounting for the gap between projected guidance and realized execution.
2026-09-03 14:41The loss of a $53 billion safety net represents a significant removal of liquidity and financial cushioning, exposing the company to competitive pressures and lack of innovation, which the market typically views as a a catastrophic removal of life support rather than a strategic pivot.
2026-08-30 20:02Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
| Ticker | Velocity | Vol | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| BKR | +6.8 | 2 | CNBC Daily Open: 'Whoever wins AI, wins' |
| SPCX | +1.4 | 2 | Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX)’s $100 Billion Starbase Bet Could Transform Its Growth Outlook |
Change in scored coverage over the last 12 hours versus the prior 12.
| GEV | -4.3 | GLJ Research initiates GE Vernova stock with sell rating on cycle concerns |
| CHWY | -2.2 | Is Chewy’s (CHWY) Margin Story Losing Steam, or Is a 48% Drop the Opportunity? |
| CRCL | -2.0 | Circle (CRCL) Stock Drops 7.5% Despite $400M Tazapay Acquisition for Emerging Markets |
| PATH | -2.0 | UiPath, Inc. (PATH) Stock Has AI Potential, But Slowing Growth Keeps Investors Cautious |
| BRZE | -1.2 | Why Braze Stock Plummeted This Week |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy | +141 | +1,512 | +3,334 | |
| Financials | +128 | +792 | +2,430 | |
| Information Technologybearish reversal | -28 | +510 | +2,047 | |
| Materials | +12 | +83 | +528 | |
| Communication Services | +9 | +69 | +221 | |
| Health Care | +14 | +35 | +254 | |
| Consumer Staples | -8 | -118 | -400 | |
| Industrials | -27 | -435 | -631 | |
| Utilities | -67 | -556 | -1,897 | |
| Real Estate | -90 | -909 | -3,738 | |
| Consumer Discretionary | -83 | -979 | -2,147 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation | +85.3 | -58 | |
| Geopolitical Conflict | +26.2 | -8 | |
| Supply Chain | +22.2 | +12 | |
| Market Volatility | +18.7 | -11 | |
| Cloud Computing | -22.5 | +10 | |
| Semiconductors | -41.8 | +5 | |
| Oil Prices | -71.2 | +51 | |
| Artificial Intelligence | -210.2 | +56 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Theme | Sources | Conviction | |
|---|---|---|---|
| defense security | 174 | 55 | |
| geopolitics | 151 | 65 | |
| financial regulation | 130 | 65 | |
| transport mobility | 124 | 63 | |
| healthcare policy | 124 | 62 | |
| infrastructure | 108 | 63 | |
| monetary policy | 103 | 64 | |
| trade policy | 103 | 64 | |
| agriculture food | 94 | 58 | |
| energy policy | 83 | 62 |
A slower reading than the panels above. Sources counts the documents behind a theme; conviction weighs how many independent sources agree, how recent they are and how strong the signal is. Moves over weeks, not hours.
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Short-term | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACN | Accenture | 598 | — | — |
| Consults large enterprises on digital transformation to meet new regulatory and reporting standards. banking, defense security, education skills, energy policy | ||||
| PLTR | Palantir Technologies | 583 | +5.5 | aligned |
| Provides AI-driven data analytics for intelligence and battlefield management. data privacy, defense security, financial regulation, geopolitics | ||||
| NEE | NextEra Energy | 549 | — | — |
| Aligned with the push for domestic energy stability and modernization. capital markets, climate policy, energy policy, financial regulation | ||||
| LMT | Lockheed Martin | 361 | — | — |
| Primary supplier of advanced aircraft and missile systems for regional conflicts. defense security, financial regulation, geopolitics, technology regulation | ||||
| SBGSY | Schneider Electric | 361 | — | — |
| Provides energy management and automation for resilient, decarbonized industrial infrastructure. climate policy, energy policy, financial regulation, infrastructure | ||||
| DE | Deere & Company | 326 | — | — |
| Agricultural equipment demand grows domestically as US farm subsidies expand under protectionist policies. agriculture food, financial regulation, geopolitics, infrastructure | ||||
| CNI | Canadian National Railway | 319 | — | — |
| Increased reliance on North American rail for resilient, regionalized supply chains. agriculture food, energy policy, infrastructure, monetary policy | ||||
| SAP | SAP | 287 | — | — |
| Enterprise software used by banks to consolidate financial data and manage regulatory reporting. banking, financial regulation, infrastructure, labor markets | ||||
| CAT | Caterpillar | 243 | — | — |
| Manufacturer of heavy equipment for building regional manufacturing facilities in new supply chain hubs agriculture food, climate policy, geopolitics, labor markets | ||||
| BA.L | BAE Systems | 240 | — | — |
| Strong exposure to UK and European strategic defense reinforcement projects. defense security, geopolitics, infrastructure, trade policy | ||||
Weight is how prominently a company features across the document corpus, with the reason for its exposure underneath. These are the names that recur in policy and regulatory material, which is a different population from the tickers moving on today's news. Where a name also has a current sentiment score, both are shown: aligned means they point the same way, diverging means one horizon has not caught up with the other.
Global instability and AI security gaps drive shift toward frontier defense spending
Persistent regional conflicts increase immediate demand for conventional munitions and hardware. Simultaneously, the 'acceleration gap'—where non-state actors adopt AI faster than regulators—forces governments to pivot budgets toward autonomous defense systems, AI-driven intelligence, and advanced cybersecurity to counter hybrid threats.
Better placed: AI-driven cybersecurity, autonomous defense systems, munitions manufacturing, intelligence & surveillance tech
More exposed: global maritime logistics, international tourism and travel, traditional diplomatic trade frameworks, unsecured cloud infrastructure
Named: LMT, PLTR, CRWD, MAERSK-B
What would break this: A comprehensive global treaty on AI weaponization or a sudden resolution of major regional conflicts would reduce the urgency for frontier defense spending.
Geopolitical volatility and AI asymmetric threats drive defense and cybersecurity spending
Persistent regional conflicts increase demand for conventional munitions and logistics. The 'acceleration gap' in AI adoption by non-state actors forces governments to accelerate procurement of AI-driven counter-terrorism, surveillance, and intelligence tools. Hybrid threats necessitate a shift toward secure communications and cyber-defense infrastructure. Simultaneously, large-scale displacement increases the requir
Better placed: aerospace and defense, cybersecurity, AI-driven intelligence and surveillance, satellite communications
More exposed: regional tourism, commercial aviation (flight path disruptions), just-in-time global supply chains, traditional diplomacy-reliant trade
Named: LMT, PLTR, CRWD, BKNG, RTX
What would break this: A comprehensive global treaty on AI weaponry or a sudden diplomatic resolution to the Ukraine and Gaza conflicts would reduce the urgency for rapid defense procurement.
Asymmetric threats drive demand for AI-powered surveillance and autonomous defense systems
Non-state actors are utilizing low-cost, high-impact technologies like drones and AI to bypass traditional security, creating a technological gap. This forces governments to pivot from legacy hardware toward frontier technologies. Persistent regional conflicts act as accelerators, providing real-time data on the efficacy of these asymmetric tools, which in turn necessitates urgent investment in early warning systems,
Better placed: AI-driven surveillance and intelligence, counter-UAS (Unmanned Aircraft Systems), satellite imagery and GEOINT, critical infrastructure cybersecurity
More exposed: legacy heavy armor platforms, traditional physical border security, conventional non-precision munitions, static perimeter defense hardware
Named: PLTR, AVAV, LMT, CRWD, GD
What would break this: A sudden global shift toward disarmament treaties or the implementation of highly restrictive international AI regulations could slow the procurement of frontier defense technologies.
Routine RBI operations signal monetary stability and predictable credit conditions in India
1. The continuation of standard operational cycles suggests a lack of immediate, disruptive shifts in interest rate policy. 2. Regular government securities auctions ensure consistent funding for public spending and infrastructure projects. 3. Ongoing regulatory oversight reduces systemic risk within the banking sector by maintaining compliance standards. 4. Data-driven inputs from inflation and consumer surveys allo
Better placed: commercial banking, government infrastructure projects, fixed income asset management, corporate credit markets
More exposed: currency speculators, high-volatility short-term debt instruments
Named: HDB, IBKI, SBIN, RELIANCE
What would break this: A sudden shift from routine operations to emergency liquidity injections or unexpected aggressive rate hikes would invalidate the stability thesis.
NATO expansion and global stability efforts drive strategic defense and security spending
1. NATO reinforcements in the High North and Eastern Flank necessitate increased procurement of advanced weaponry, surveillance systems, and military infrastructure to maintain deterrence. 2. The shift toward 'strategic deterrence' favors high-tech defense capabilities including missile defense and cyber warfare tools. 3. UN-led cooperation on climate adaptation and cross-border crime increases demand for specialized
Better placed: aerospace and defense, cybersecurity, satellite communications, military logistics
More exposed: non-aligned arms exporters, traditional diplomatic consulting (shifting to security-led diplomacy), unsecured cross-border trade logistics
Named: LMT, RHM.DE, PLTR, NOC, AIR.PA
What would break this: A sudden diplomatic breakthrough leading to comprehensive disarmament treaties or a significant reduction in NATO funding commitments would invalidate the growth thesis.
RBI regulatory tightening and liquidity drains pressure Indian banking operational margins
1. Increased monetary penalties for non-compliance with customer compensation and credit reporting raise direct operational costs for financial institutions. 2. Stricter loan pricing regulations limit the ability of lenders to aggressively adjust rates, potentially squeezing net interest margins (NIMs). 3. The use of Variable Rate Reverse Repos (VRRRs) and T-Bill auctions removes excess liquidity from the banking sys
Better placed: RegTech software providers, compliance consultancy services, government securities markets
More exposed: retail commercial banks, non-banking financial companies (NBFCs), aggressive consumer credit lenders
Named: TCS.NS, BAJFINANCE.N, HDB, INFY
What would break this: A shift toward a more accommodative monetary policy or a relaxation of compliance timelines would mitigate the pressure on banking margins.
RBI liquidity absorption likely to increase short-term borrowing costs and bond yields
The RBI's use of VRRR auctions removes excess cash from the commercial banking system. This reduction in available liquidity typically puts upward pressure on overnight interbank call rates. As banks have less surplus capital to deploy, demand for government securities (G-Secs) may soften, leading to higher yields and lower bond prices. Consequently, entities relying on short-term wholesale funding or bank credit fac
Better placed: short-term money market funds, banks with high CASA ratios, floating rate debt instruments
More exposed: non-banking financial companies (NBFCs), highly leveraged corporate borrowers, long-duration government bond holders
Named: HDB, BAJAJFIN, LICI, SBIN
What would break this: A sudden surge in government spending or a massive influx of foreign portfolio investment (FPI) could offset the VRRR absorption, maintaining liquidity levels.
RBI liquidity absorption likely to elevate short-term borrowing costs and pressure NBFCs
The RBI's use of VRRR auctions removes excess cash from the banking system, reducing the supply of loanable funds. This typically leads to an increase in interbank call money rates. As funding becomes tighter, banks may raise lending rates to maintain net interest margins (NIMs), which increases the cost of capital for corporate borrowers and Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) that rely on bank credit rather tha
Better placed: short-duration fixed income, high-quality banks with strong deposit franchises, cash-rich corporations
More exposed: non-banking financial companies (NBFCs), highly leveraged corporate borrowers, banks with high reliance on wholesale funding
Named: HDB, SBIN, BAJAJFIN, RELIANCE
What would break this: A sudden shift toward monetary easing or an unexpected surge in foreign portfolio investment (FPI) inflows could offset the RBI's absorption efforts.
Readings drawn from the document corpus, not from price action. Each carries the case against it, because a view without a stated way to be wrong is not worth much. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell anything.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Markov Regime Engine | UP | 68% |
| Macro Factor Gate | UP | 55% |
Consensus: BULLISH
Model failed validation: out-of-sample error 0.7703% is worse than the 0.3355% predict-zero baseline. Projection withheld until a weekly retrain produces a model that beats the baseline.
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 11.2% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 55% |
| Variance risk premium | +5.8 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.52% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.39% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.53% |
Premium in normal range — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.05 in-sample / -0.05 OOS, worst -0.05) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil & Gas | 0.76 | 1.1h | ELEVATED |
| Inflation | 0.73 | 1.2h | ELEVATED |
| Artificial Intelligence | 0.63 | 0.4h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Interest Rates | 0.62 | 0.6h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Supply Chain | 0.51 | 3.0h | SUBCRITICAL |
| FinTech | 0.50 | 1.1h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Market Volatility | 0.49 | 0.9h | SUBCRITICAL |
| M&A | 0.48 | 1.3h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 430 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 885 |
| Projected close of day | 1,178 |
| Daily average | 1,325 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 0.59× |
| Total in corpus | 193,510 |
Coverage volume is unusually low; treat every reading below as provisional.
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.
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