A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login to read it.
Regime read: LONG · expected +2.69% ± 5.26% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.51 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Bull (75.1% posterior, +38.0%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.1093%/day and dominates. Net +0.1113%/day.
Same hours, earlier readings — the fastest way to see whether today is unusual.
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STX | +3.8 | Information Technology | 14.0 | 0.46 | 60% | Seagate Sees Storage Demand Outpacing Supply as AI and Cloud Drive HDD GrowthconvictionprofitablePEGY < 0.75Fwd P/E < 15 |
| HOOD | +3.3 | Financials | 32.3 | 2.00 | 51% | Why is Robinhood Markets stock sliding today?profitableExtended FWD P/E |
| APO | +3.0 | Financials | 11.9 | 0.47 | 52% | Apollo at Barclays conference: ai financing and private credit pushconvictionprofitablePEGY < 0.75Fwd P/E < 15 |
| META | +2.9 | Communication Services | 19.0 | 0.87 | 53% | Fifty-Five Analysts Cover Meta and None Say SellUNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
| WAY | +2.7 | Health Care | 14.2 | — | 41% | Waystar Surges As Medical Software Maker Reportedly Mulls A SaleconvictionprofitableFwd P/E < 15P/B < 1.5 |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RUM | LONG | 43.4% | +0.73 | +0.59 | +2.03 | Partnership catalyst (82% PM conviction); Asymmetric edge playbook: Partnership |
| 2 | STX | LONG | 43.3% | -0.31 | -0.47 | -0.67 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 3.8); Valuation corroborated (PEGY/fwd-PE/EV checks); High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum; Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 3 | APO | LONG | 43.3% | -0.31 | -0.47 | -0.67 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 3.0); Valuation corroborated (PEGY/fwd-PE/EV checks); High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum; CIO meta-model current selection |
| 4 | WAY | LONG | 43.3% | -0.31 | -0.47 | -0.67 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 2.7); Valuation corroborated (PEGY/fwd-PE/EV checks); High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum |
| 5 | WDAY | LONG | 42.6% | -0.42 | -0.46 | -0.16 | High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum; Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 6 | HOOD | LONG | 44.1% | -0.21 | -0.47 | -1.19 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 3.3); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E |
| 7 | ALNY | LONG | 42.6% | -0.42 | -0.46 | -0.16 | High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum |
| 8 | META | LONG | 42.9% | -0.23 | -0.47 | -0.82 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 2.9); Accelerating velocity +5.8 (2 mentions/12h); ⚠ UNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
Engine hit rate 42.8% over 458 scored calls (lower bound 38.3%), average net alpha -0.255%. Serving: rules.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
A $22B merger between Qorvo and Skyworks is a massive structural shift in the RF semiconductor market, but conviction is tempered by significant antitrust regulatory risk.
2026-09-11 14:33Guidance slash and board review signal systemic operational failure and a loss of management own-ship, which typically outweighs any speculative 'spring-loading' or buyout theories.
2026-09-10 12:43Phase 2 trial results are a primary value driver for biotech stocks; a 30% plunge indicates the market is pricing in a significant impairment of the lead asset's efficacy or safety, which is a correctness-binary outcome with-out a high probability of immediate recovery.
2026-09-09 13:04A Phase 3 primary endpoint miss in a late-stage pipeline asset is a fundamental devaluation event that outweighs the platform-based bull thesis in the short-to-medium term.
2026-09-08 11:19The collapse of a $14.5 billion combination removes a massive valuation floor and exposes the stock to a severe correction as the market prices in the risk of due diligence failure.
2026-09-06 23:23A 44% drop following a failed drug trial is a fundamental re-rating of the company's valuation based on lost projected cash flows, not a temporary dip.
2026-09-04 23:49A revenue beat is a backward-looking metric; the market is pricing in a structural growth slowdown and the potential obsolescence of traditional RPA in the face of Generative AI.
2026-09-04 15:03Snowflake's 23% surge on AI-fueled guidance raise is a powerful catalyst, but conviction is capped to avoid the 'strategic narrative trap' by accounting for the gap between projected guidance and realized execution.
2026-09-03 14:41Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
| Ticker | Velocity | Vol | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| META | +5.8 | 2 | Fifty-Five Analysts Cover Meta and None Say Sell |
Change in scored coverage over the last 12 hours versus the prior 12.
| BOOT | -4.1 | Why is Boot Barn stock sliding today? |
| COIN | -3.7 | $COIN |
| ACN | -3.5 | Inside Broyhill’s Bearish Exit of Accenture (ACN) |
| GEV | -3.1 | GE Vernova Sinks 9% as GLJ Research Starts at Sell With $470 Target; Eaton Drops 7%, Quanta Services Falls 4% |
| DLB | -2.0 | Can Rising Component Costs and Weak Consumer Spending Break Dolby Laboratories’ (DLB) Growth Outlook? |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy | +263 | +1,599 | +3,695 | |
| Financials | +167 | +902 | +2,630 | |
| Information Technologybearish reversal | -142 | +157 | +1,739 | |
| Health Care | +86 | +151 | +352 | |
| Materials | +61 | +142 | +579 | |
| Communication Services | +59 | +139 | +277 | |
| Consumer Staplesbullish reversal | +58 | -36 | -323 | |
| Industrialsbullish reversal | +70 | -241 | -531 | |
| Utilities | -198 | -723 | -2,109 | |
| Consumer Discretionary | -101 | -931 | -2,242 | |
| Real Estate | -326 | -1,163 | -4,070 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation | +42.8 | -98 | |
| Geopolitical Conflict | +30.2 | -1 | |
| Energy Prices | +16.2 | +16 | |
| Energy Costs | +12.7 | +2 | |
| Bond Yields | -52.7 | -64 | |
| Monetary Policy | -55.7 | -85 | |
| Artificial Intelligence | -126.3 | +94 | |
| Interest Rates | -289.3 | -503 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Markov Regime Engine | UP | 62% |
| Macro Factor Gate | UP | 55% |
Consensus: BULLISH
Model failed validation: out-of-sample error 1.0135% is worse than the 0.624% predict-zero baseline. Projection withheld until a weekly retrain produces a model that beats the baseline.
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 11.8% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 61% |
| Variance risk premium | +5.6 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.54% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.45% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.74% |
Premium in normal range — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.05 in-sample / 0.06 OOS, worst 0.05) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Interest Rates | 0.74 | 0.9h | ELEVATED |
| Inflation | 0.72 | 1.2h | ELEVATED |
| Oil & Gas | 0.67 | 1.0h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Crypto & Digital Assets | 0.56 | 1.0h | SUBCRITICAL |
| FinTech | 0.52 | 0.9h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Semiconductors | 0.51 | 0.8h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Cloud & Data Centers | 0.47 | 0.6h | SUBCRITICAL |
| M&A | 0.46 | 1.4h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 614 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 1,261 |
| Projected close of day | 1,011 |
| Daily average | 1,326 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 0.80× |
| Total in corpus | 194,955 |
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.
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