A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login to read it.
Regime read: LONG · expected +2.68% ± 5.24% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.51 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Bull (76.0% posterior, +37.5%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.1093%/day and dominates. Net +0.1113%/day.
Same hours, earlier readings — the fastest way to see whether today is unusual.
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOOD | +5.3 | Financials | 32.6 | 2.00 | 52% | Robinhood Vs. AMC: Vlad Tenev Responds to Tokenized Stock CriticismprofitableExtended FWD P/E |
| CBOE | +5.1 | Financials | 17.8 | 2.20 | 30% | How Investors Are Reacting To Cboe Global Markets Stock Raised Growth OutlookprofitableExpensive PEGY (>2) |
| META | +3.1 | Communication Services | 19.2 | 0.87 | 55% | Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg sides with Nvidia's Huang on AI safety and slowdown debateUNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
| APO | +2.7 | Financials | 11.8 | 0.47 | 51% | Johnson & Johnson Shares Rise on Reported Apollo Talks for Orthopedics UnitconvictionprofitablePEGY < 0.75Fwd P/E < 15 |
| STX | +2.7 | Information Technology | 13.9 | 0.46 | 60% | Western Digital Falls 4% Despite Its AI Storage Pitch; Seagate Drops 5%, Micron Holds SteadyconvictionprofitablePEGY < 0.75Fwd P/E < 15 |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RUM | LONG | 43.4% | +0.73 | +0.59 | +2.03 | Partnership catalyst (82% PM conviction); Asymmetric edge playbook: Partnership |
| 2 | CTVA | LONG | 38.2% | +0.06 | -0.53 | +0.71 | Spinoff catalyst (82% PM conviction); Quality: F-score 7/9 |
| 3 | STX | LONG | 43.5% | -0.30 | -0.45 | -0.68 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 2.7); Valuation corroborated (PEGY/fwd-PE/EV checks); High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum; Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 4 | APO | LONG | 43.5% | -0.30 | -0.45 | -0.68 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 2.8); Valuation corroborated (PEGY/fwd-PE/EV checks); High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum; CIO meta-model current selection |
| 5 | CBOE | LONG | 43.0% | -0.23 | -0.47 | -0.82 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 5.1); Accelerating velocity +7.4 (2 mentions/12h); ⚠ Expensive PEGY (>2); Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 6 | WAY | LONG | 42.9% | -0.39 | -0.43 | -0.18 | High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum |
| 7 | META | LONG | 44.2% | -0.20 | -0.47 | -1.18 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 3.1); ⚠ UNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
| 8 | RIVN | LONG | 42.9% | -0.39 | -0.43 | -0.18 | Despair reversion: sentiment -5 but undervalued |
Engine hit rate 42.6% over 462 scored calls (lower bound 38.2%), average net alpha -0.262%. Serving: rules.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
The spinoff of the seed business into Vylor creates a pure-play biotech growth vehicle, likely triggering a massive re-rating of the combined enterprise value by eliminating the conglomerate discount.
2026-09-16 01:38A $22B merger between Qorvo and Skyworks is a massive structural shift in the RF semiconductor market, but conviction is tempered by significant antitrust regulatory risk.
2026-09-11 14:33Guidance slash and board review signal systemic operational failure and a loss of management own-ship, which typically outweighs any speculative 'spring-loading' or buyout theories.
2026-09-10 12:43Phase 2 trial results are a primary value driver for biotech stocks; a 30% plunge indicates the market is pricing in a significant impairment of the lead asset's efficacy or safety, which is a correctness-binary outcome with-out a high probability of immediate recovery.
2026-09-09 13:04A Phase 3 primary endpoint miss in a late-stage pipeline asset is a fundamental devaluation event that outweighs the platform-based bull thesis in the short-to-medium term.
2026-09-08 11:19The collapse of a $14.5 billion combination removes a massive valuation floor and exposes the stock to a severe correction as the market prices in the risk of due diligence failure.
2026-09-06 23:23A 44% drop following a failed drug trial is a fundamental re-rating of the company's valuation based on lost projected cash flows, not a temporary dip.
2026-09-04 23:49A revenue beat is a backward-looking metric; the market is pricing in a structural growth slowdown and the potential obsolescence of traditional RPA in the face of Generative AI.
2026-09-04 15:03Snowflake's 23% surge on AI-fueled guidance raise is a powerful catalyst, but conviction is capped to avoid the 'strategic narrative trap' by accounting for the gap between projected guidance and realized execution.
2026-09-03 14:41Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
| Ticker | Velocity | Vol | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBOE | +7.4 | 2 | How Investors Are Reacting To Cboe Global Markets Stock Raised Growth Outlook |
| BE | +3.0 | 2 | Bloom Energy vs. NANO Nuclear Energy: Which Stock Is a Better Buy in 2026? |
| HOOD | +2.6 | 2 | Robinhood Vs. AMC: Vlad Tenev Responds to Tokenized Stock Criticism |
| CCI | +2.0 | 2 | Crown Castle to Present at the 2026 RBC Capital Markets Global Communications Infrastructure Conference |
Change in scored coverage over the last 12 hours versus the prior 12.
| COIN | -4.5 | Senate cloture vote on Clarity Act fails, dealing regulatory blow to crypto industry |
| CRCL | -3.9 | Senate cloture vote on Clarity Act fails, dealing regulatory blow to crypto industry |
| BOOT | -3.7 | Why is Boot Barn stock sliding today? |
| LAZ | -2.7 | Lazard, Perella Weinberg, Shift4, StoneX, and Atlanticus Holdings Shares Are Falling, What You Need To Know |
| PWP | -2.7 | Lazard, Perella Weinberg, Shift4, StoneX, and Atlanticus Holdings Shares Are Falling, What You Need To Know |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy | +315 | +1,676 | +3,876 | |
| Financials | +133 | +896 | +2,658 | |
| Health Care | +104 | +216 | +405 | |
| Materials | +94 | +191 | +626 | |
| Communication Services | +64 | +172 | +298 | |
| Information Technologybearish reversal | -121 | +29 | +1,673 | |
| Consumer Staplesbullish reversal | +82 | +28 | -273 | |
| Industrialsbullish reversal | +93 | -154 | -484 | |
| Utilities | -241 | -813 | -2,221 | |
| Consumer Discretionary | -112 | -922 | -2,298 | |
| Real Estate | -408 | -1,323 | -4,261 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation | +35.8 | -106 | |
| Geopolitical Conflict | +30.3 | -1 | |
| Geopolitical Tension | +13.2 | -7 | |
| Foreign Investment | +9.8 | +14 | |
| Monetary Policy | -66.8 | -101 | |
| Oil Prices | -110.8 | -1 | |
| Artificial Intelligence | -124.0 | +77 | |
| Interest Rates | -395.3 | -631 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Theme | Sources | Conviction | |
|---|---|---|---|
| defense security | 160 | 57 | |
| geopolitics | 155 | 69 | |
| financial regulation | 137 | 72 | |
| transport mobility | 126 | 62 | |
| infrastructure | 125 | 72 | |
| healthcare policy | 118 | 62 | |
| trade policy | 112 | 77 | |
| monetary policy | 95 | 63 | |
| energy policy | 91 | 61 | |
| banking | 84 | 64 |
A slower reading than the panels above. Sources counts the documents behind a theme; conviction weighs how many independent sources agree, how recent they are and how strong the signal is. Moves over weeks, not hours.
| Ticker | Company | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| PLTR | Palantir Technologies | 584 |
| Provides AI-driven intelligence and security software used in modern conflict management. data privacy, defense security, financial regulation, geopolitics | ||
| ACN | Accenture | 563 |
| Consults large enterprises on digital transformation to meet new regulatory and reporting standards. banking, defense security, education skills, energy policy | ||
| NEE | NextEra Energy | 541 |
| Aligned with the push for domestic energy stability and modernization. capital markets, climate policy, energy policy, financial regulation | ||
| LMT | Lockheed Martin | 378 |
| Major defense contractor whose aerospace, missile-defense, and security systems may see demand from heightened conflict and national-security spending. defense security, financial regulation, geopolitics, technology regulation | ||
| SBGSY | Schneider Electric | 378 |
| Provides energy management and automation for resilient, decarbonized industrial infrastructure. climate policy, energy policy, financial regulation, infrastructure | ||
| SAP | SAP | 326 |
| Enterprise software capable of supporting the digitalization of Customs Union reforms. banking, financial regulation, geopolitics, infrastructure | ||
| DE | Deere & Company | 322 |
| Agricultural equipment demand grows domestically as US farm subsidies expand under protectionist policies. agriculture food, financial regulation, geopolitics, infrastructure | ||
| CNI | Canadian National Railway | 320 |
| Increased reliance on North American rail for resilient, regionalized supply chains. agriculture food, energy policy, infrastructure, monetary policy | ||
| CAT | Caterpillar | 312 |
| Manufacturer of heavy equipment for building regional manufacturing facilities in new supply chain hubs agriculture food, climate policy, geopolitics, infrastructure | ||
| HO | Thales | 299 |
| European defense electronics firm integrated into UK-Europe security frameworks. defense security, geopolitics, immigration, industrial policy | ||
Weight is how prominently a company features across the document corpus, with the reason for its exposure underneath. These are the names that recur in policy and regulatory material, which is a different population from the tickers moving on today's news.
No transport-policy signal supports sector-specific positioning; monitor for clearer evidence
The documents cover health care, administration, monuments, cybersecurity, and other subjects rather than transport. They contain no direct mobility measures, funding changes, regulatory proposals, or transport-related quotations. Therefore, the evidence does not establish a near-term policy winner or loser within transportation. The sample also covers only one jurisdiction despite 49 claimed sources, limiting breadt
Better placed: policy-neutral or diversified transportation operators, transportation companies with multiple revenue streams, mobility providers not dependent on new government incentives
More exposed: policy-dependent electric-vehicle and charging themes, transport infrastructure developers awaiting public funding or regulatory clarity, mobility businesses exposed to unresolved permitting or operating-rule changes
Named: UBER, UNP, TSLA, CHPT
What would break this: The thesis would be falsified by newly identified transport documents, a policy announcement in the US, or evidence from additional jurisdictions showing a clear mobility direction. Company-specific developments, private-sector investment, or existing regulations could also drive transport outcomes
Rising conflict supports defense and cybersecurity demand, while disrupting trade and humanitarian stability
The documents describe increasingly frequent and consequential wars, proxy violence, technology-enabled threats, and geopolitical tensions across multiple regions. These developments raise demand for defense, cybersecurity, risk-management, and civilian-protection capabilities. However, the same fragmentation intensifies humanitarian crises, disrupts cross-border commerce, and increases operational and regulatory unc
Better placed: defense and security technology, cybersecurity and critical-infrastructure protection, risk intelligence and compliance services, humanitarian logistics and emergency response
More exposed: global shipping and logistics exposed to conflict zones, international airlines and travel, trade-dependent manufacturers and exporters, humanitarian organizations facing access and funding constraints
Named: LMT, RTX, PANW, AMKBY, IAG
What would break this: Conflict intensity could de-escalate, diplomatic cooperation could improve faster than expected, or governments could constrain defense and cybersecurity budgets. Companies may also face procurement delays, export controls, reputational risks, margin pressure, or limited ability to convert geopoliti
Geopolitical instability drives shift toward advanced defense and nuclear energy resilience
Escalating regional conflicts increase demand for modernized military hardware, specifically counter-drone systems. The identified existential risks from AI necessitate a pivot toward cybersecurity and AI governance. Simultaneously, the strategic goal to triple nuclear capacity by 2060 creates a long-term structural tailwind for uranium supply chains and next-generation reactor technology. Conversely, systemic instab
Better placed: counter-drone defense, nuclear SMR, uranium mining, cybersecurity
More exposed: global maritime shipping, traditional fossil fuel E&P, international humanitarian aid funding, cross-border consumer discretionary trade
Named: LMT, CCJ, PLTR, MAERSK-B, CRWD
What would break this: A sudden diplomatic resolution to major regional conflicts or a failure to secure funding/regulatory approval for nuclear expansion would invalidate the growth thesis.
Geopolitical volatility and AI asymmetric threats drive defense and cybersecurity spending
Persistent regional conflicts increase demand for conventional munitions and logistics. The 'acceleration gap' in AI adoption by non-state actors forces governments to accelerate procurement of AI-driven counter-terrorism, surveillance, and intelligence tools. Hybrid threats necessitate a shift toward secure communications and cyber-defense infrastructure. Simultaneously, large-scale displacement increases the requir
Better placed: aerospace and defense, cybersecurity, AI-driven intelligence and surveillance, satellite communications
More exposed: regional tourism, commercial aviation (flight path disruptions), just-in-time global supply chains, traditional diplomacy-reliant trade
Named: LMT, PLTR, CRWD, BKNG, RTX
What would break this: A comprehensive global treaty on AI weaponry or a sudden diplomatic resolution to the Ukraine and Gaza conflicts would reduce the urgency for rapid defense procurement.
Asymmetric threats drive demand for AI-powered surveillance and autonomous defense systems
Non-state actors are utilizing low-cost, high-impact technologies like drones and AI to bypass traditional security, creating a technological gap. This forces governments to pivot from legacy hardware toward frontier technologies. Persistent regional conflicts act as accelerators, providing real-time data on the efficacy of these asymmetric tools, which in turn necessitates urgent investment in early warning systems,
Better placed: AI-driven surveillance and intelligence, counter-UAS (Unmanned Aircraft Systems), satellite imagery and GEOINT, critical infrastructure cybersecurity
More exposed: legacy heavy armor platforms, traditional physical border security, conventional non-precision munitions, static perimeter defense hardware
Named: PLTR, AVAV, LMT, CRWD, GD
What would break this: A sudden global shift toward disarmament treaties or the implementation of highly restrictive international AI regulations could slow the procurement of frontier defense technologies.
Routine RBI operations signal monetary stability and predictable credit conditions in India
1. The continuation of standard operational cycles suggests a lack of immediate, disruptive shifts in interest rate policy. 2. Regular government securities auctions ensure consistent funding for public spending and infrastructure projects. 3. Ongoing regulatory oversight reduces systemic risk within the banking sector by maintaining compliance standards. 4. Data-driven inputs from inflation and consumer surveys allo
Better placed: commercial banking, government infrastructure projects, fixed income asset management, corporate credit markets
More exposed: currency speculators, high-volatility short-term debt instruments
Named: HDB, IBKI, SBIN, RELIANCE
What would break this: A sudden shift from routine operations to emergency liquidity injections or unexpected aggressive rate hikes would invalidate the stability thesis.
NATO expansion and global stability efforts drive strategic defense and security spending
1. NATO reinforcements in the High North and Eastern Flank necessitate increased procurement of advanced weaponry, surveillance systems, and military infrastructure to maintain deterrence. 2. The shift toward 'strategic deterrence' favors high-tech defense capabilities including missile defense and cyber warfare tools. 3. UN-led cooperation on climate adaptation and cross-border crime increases demand for specialized
Better placed: aerospace and defense, cybersecurity, satellite communications, military logistics
More exposed: non-aligned arms exporters, traditional diplomatic consulting (shifting to security-led diplomacy), unsecured cross-border trade logistics
Named: LMT, RHM.DE, PLTR, NOC, AIR.PA
What would break this: A sudden diplomatic breakthrough leading to comprehensive disarmament treaties or a significant reduction in NATO funding commitments would invalidate the growth thesis.
RBI regulatory tightening and liquidity drains pressure Indian banking operational margins
1. Increased monetary penalties for non-compliance with customer compensation and credit reporting raise direct operational costs for financial institutions. 2. Stricter loan pricing regulations limit the ability of lenders to aggressively adjust rates, potentially squeezing net interest margins (NIMs). 3. The use of Variable Rate Reverse Repos (VRRRs) and T-Bill auctions removes excess liquidity from the banking sys
Better placed: RegTech software providers, compliance consultancy services, government securities markets
More exposed: retail commercial banks, non-banking financial companies (NBFCs), aggressive consumer credit lenders
Named: TCS.NS, BAJFINANCE.N, HDB, INFY
What would break this: A shift toward a more accommodative monetary policy or a relaxation of compliance timelines would mitigate the pressure on banking margins.
Readings drawn from the document corpus, not from price action. Each carries the case against it, because a view without a stated way to be wrong is not worth much. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell anything.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Markov Regime Engine | UP | 62% |
| Macro Factor Gate | UP | 55% |
Consensus: BULLISH
Weekly index projection: +2.41% (80% band -3.84% to +5.68%).
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 11.8% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 61% |
| Variance risk premium | +5.3 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.54% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.44% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.70% |
Premium in normal range — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.05 in-sample / 0.06 OOS, worst 0.05) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Interest Rates | 0.76 | 0.9h | ELEVATED |
| Inflation | 0.72 | 1.2h | ELEVATED |
| Oil & Gas | 0.72 | 1.1h | ELEVATED |
| Crypto & Digital Assets | 0.58 | 1.2h | SUBCRITICAL |
| FinTech | 0.56 | 1.3h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Semiconductors | 0.55 | 1.2h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Cloud & Data Centers | 0.45 | 0.7h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Supply Chain | 0.45 | 1.2h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 80 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 1,072 |
| Projected close of day | 1,622 |
| Daily average | 1,321 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 0.90× |
| Total in corpus | 195,493 |
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.
Reading the full dashboard is free and needs no login. Add your email now and you lock in free access to everything — and you keep it as we add new features. Join while it's still free.