A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login to read it.
Regime read: LONG · expected +2.60% ± 5.35% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.49 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Bull (67.0% posterior, +37.7%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.0985%/day and dominates. Net +0.1004%/day.
Same hours, earlier readings — the fastest way to see whether today is unusual.
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GNRC | +12.9 | Industrials | 17.5 | 0.53 | 45% | Amazon's new deal with Generac reveals that the AI trade may be shifting away from chips and into power.profitablePEGY < 0.75 |
| GEV | +6.9 | Industrials | 36.5 | 1.77 | 59% | GE Vernova rebounds 6% after earlier sell-offprofitableExtended FWD P/E |
| BE | +5.9 | Industrials | 57.0 | 0.61 | 76% | If You Missed the Nancy Pelosi Rally, Here’s the Case for Buying Bloom Energy Stock NowprofitablePEGY < 0.75Extended FWD P/EMean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
| META | +4.6 | Communication Services | 19.5 | 0.88 | 60% | Here Is How to Play Corning Stock After Its Dilution ScareUNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
| HOOD | +4.1 | Financials | 32.4 | 1.82 | 51% | Who are Hefu Chai and Jerry Xiang in the Robinhood Insider CaseprofitableExtended FWD P/E |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CRCL | LONG | 44.0% | +0.73 | +0.60 | +2.04 | Partnership catalyst (82% PM conviction); Asymmetric edge playbook: Partnership; ⚠ Hostile macro: rising dollar + rising yields |
| 2 | SPCX | LONG | 44.0% | +0.73 | +0.60 | +2.04 | Partnership catalyst (82% PM conviction); Asymmetric edge playbook: Partnership; ⚠ Hostile macro: rising dollar + rising yields |
| 3 | TLN | LONG | 44.0% | +0.73 | +0.60 | +2.04 | Partnership catalyst (82% PM conviction); Asymmetric edge playbook: Partnership; ⚠ Hostile macro: rising dollar + rising yields |
| 4 | CTVA | LONG | 38.6% | +0.06 | -0.53 | +0.71 | Spinoff catalyst (82% PM conviction); ⚠ Hostile macro: rising dollar + rising yields; Quality: F-score 7/9 |
| 5 | GNRC | LONG | 42.8% | -0.14 | -0.49 | -0.76 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 12.9); Customer/Supplier Agreement catalyst (82% PM conviction); CIO meta-model current selection; ⚠ Hostile macro: rising dollar + rising yields |
| 6 | JXN | LONG | 43.7% | -0.10 | +0.15 | +1.83 | High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum; ⚠ Hostile macro: rising dollar + rising yields |
| 7 | APO | LONG | 43.7% | -0.10 | +0.15 | +1.83 | High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum; ⚠ Hostile macro: rising dollar + rising yields |
| 8 | AI | LONG | 43.7% | -0.10 | +0.15 | +1.83 | Despair reversion: sentiment -4 but undervalued; ⚠ Hostile macro: rising dollar + rising yields; ⚠ Weak fundamentals: F-score 1/9 |
Engine hit rate 41.8% over 483 scored calls (lower bound 37.5%), average net alpha -0.295%. Serving: rules.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
Amazon's $8 billion investment in a nuclear power deal transforms TLN from a utility to critical AI infrastructure, though high leverage and execution risk remain significant headwinds.
2026-09-18 02:24An $8 billion deal with Amazon, coupled with a warrant stake, aligns incentives and provides a massive revenue windfall that outweighs the customer concentration risk, while fundamentally rerating the company from residential power to AI infrastructure support.
2026-09-17 13:02Rocket Lab's capital raise to finalize the acquisition of Iridium is a high-conviction bullish catalyst as it removes the primary execution risk (funding) and confirms the deal's strategic value.
2026-09-17 06:40A $12 billion annual recurring revenue stream from AI hosting is a fundamental shift in revenue profile from lumpy launch services to high-margin recurring AI infrastructure, though execution risk and Capex requirements remain significant.
2026-09-16 19:27The integration of BlackRock, DTCC, and Visa as validators for the Arc Mainnet creates a systemic institutional bridge that transcends routine partnerships, effectively hard-coding Circle into the global financial plumbing.
2026-09-16 15:18The spinoff of the seed business into Vylor creates a pure-play biotech growth vehicle, likely triggering a massive re-rating of the combined enterprise value by eliminating the conglomerate discount.
2026-09-16 01:38A $22B merger between Qorvo and Skyworks is a massive structural shift in the RF semiconductor market, but conviction is tempered by significant antitrust regulatory risk.
2026-09-11 14:33Guidance slash and board review signal systemic operational failure and a loss of management own-ship, which typically outweighs any speculative 'spring-loading' or buyout theories.
2026-09-10 12:43Phase 2 trial results are a primary value driver for biotech stocks; a 30% plunge indicates the market is pricing in a significant impairment of the lead asset's efficacy or safety, which is a correctness-binary outcome with-out a high probability of immediate recovery.
2026-09-09 13:04Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
| Ticker | Velocity | Vol | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| GEV | +10.6 | 3 | GE Vernova rebounds 6% after earlier sell-off |
Change in scored coverage over the last 12 hours versus the prior 12.
| CRCL | -4.7 | Crypto Volatility to Stay High as Fed, CLARITY Failure Weigh on Markets |
| ZS | -3.6 | Zscaler director James Beer sells $33,985 in shares |
| BR | -3.4 | Is Broadridge Financial Stock Underperforming the S&P 500? |
| CFG | -3.3 | KeyCorp, Fifth Third Bancorp, Citizens Financial Group, Walker & Dunlop, and PNC Financial Services Group Shares Are Falling, What You Need To Know |
| GS | -3.2 | Goldman CEO Warns of Higher Costs, Softness in Fixed Income |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financials | +400 | +1,410 | +3,353 | |
| Energy | +33 | +1,229 | +3,919 | |
| Health Care | +47 | +370 | +559 | |
| Materials | +61 | +298 | +746 | |
| Communication Services | +34 | +243 | +436 | |
| Industrialsbullish reversal | +49 | +231 | -251 | |
| Consumer Staplesbullish reversal | +24 | +185 | -136 | |
| Information Technology | +42 | -163 | +1,566 | |
| Consumer Discretionary | -160 | -831 | -2,503 | |
| Utilities | -174 | -1,092 | -2,668 | |
| Real Estate | -355 | -1,879 | -5,023 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Artificial Intelligence | +146.3 | +282 | |
| Digital Assets | +61.3 | +82 | |
| Data Centers | +45.5 | +56 | |
| Semiconductors | +34.0 | +58 | |
| Geopolitical Risk | -23.8 | -46 | |
| Monetary Policy | -37.3 | -113 | |
| Oil Prices | -38.3 | -1 | |
| Interest Rates | -152.7 | -541 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Theme | Sources | Conviction | |
|---|---|---|---|
| defense security | 307 | 73 | |
| geopolitics | 263 | 70 | |
| infrastructure | 192 | 70 | |
| transport mobility | 181 | 71 | |
| financial regulation | 171 | 70 | |
| healthcare policy | 166 | 64 | |
| monetary policy | 128 | 69 | |
| climate policy | 126 | 71 | |
| capital markets | 110 | 62 | |
| education skills | 110 | 56 |
A slower reading than the panels above. Sources counts the documents behind a theme; conviction weighs how many independent sources agree, how recent they are and how strong the signal is. Moves over weeks, not hours.
| Ticker | Company | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| ACN | Accenture | 631 |
| Consults large enterprises on digital transformation to meet new regulatory and reporting standards. banking, defense security, education skills, energy policy | ||
| PLTR | Palantir Technologies | 598 |
| Provides AI-driven data analytics for intelligence and hybrid threat detection. data privacy, defense security, financial regulation, geopolitics | ||
| NEE | NextEra Energy | 569 |
| Owns substantial renewable-generation capacity and develops utility-scale solar and storage. capital markets, climate policy, energy policy, financial regulation | ||
| SIEGY | Siemens | 477 |
| European industrial, electrification, and infrastructure investment aligns with regional strategic-capacity priorities. defense security, energy policy, geopolitics, industrial policy | ||
| CAT | Caterpillar | 466 |
| Manufacturer of heavy equipment for building regional manufacturing facilities in new supply chain hubs agriculture food, climate policy, defense security, geopolitics | ||
| SBGSY | Schneider Electric | 460 |
| Provides energy management and automation for resilient, decarbonized industrial infrastructure. climate policy, defense security, energy policy, financial regulation | ||
| LMT | Lockheed Martin | 447 |
| Primary supplier of missile systems and aircraft used in regional conflicts. defense security, financial regulation, geopolitics, infrastructure | ||
| SAP | SAP | 409 |
| Enterprise software can support domestic productivity, supply-chain visibility, and digitally delivered services exports. banking, financial regulation, geopolitics, infrastructure | ||
| BA.L | BAE Systems | 372 |
| Strong exposure to UK and European strategic defense reinforcement projects. defense security, geopolitics, industrial policy, infrastructure | ||
| AIR.PA | Airbus | 336 |
| Supplies military transport aircraft and defense systems to European allies. climate policy, defense security, energy policy, geopolitics | ||
Weight is how prominently a company features across the document corpus, with the reason for its exposure underneath. These are the names that recur in policy and regulatory material, which is a different population from the tickers moving on today's news.
Geopolitical volatility and AI asymmetric threats drive defense and cybersecurity spending
Persistent regional conflicts increase demand for conventional munitions and logistics. The 'acceleration gap' in AI adoption by non-state actors forces governments to accelerate procurement of AI-driven counter-terrorism, surveillance, and intelligence tools. Hybrid threats necessitate a shift toward secure communications and cyber-defense infrastructure. Simultaneously, large-scale displacement increases the requir
Better placed: aerospace and defense, cybersecurity, AI-driven intelligence and surveillance, satellite communications
More exposed: regional tourism, commercial aviation (flight path disruptions), just-in-time global supply chains, traditional diplomacy-reliant trade
Named: LMT, PLTR, CRWD, BKNG, RTX
What would break this: A comprehensive global treaty on AI weaponry or a sudden diplomatic resolution to the Ukraine and Gaza conflicts would reduce the urgency for rapid defense procurement.
Asymmetric threats drive demand for AI-powered surveillance and autonomous defense systems
Non-state actors are utilizing low-cost, high-impact technologies like drones and AI to bypass traditional security, creating a technological gap. This forces governments to pivot from legacy hardware toward frontier technologies. Persistent regional conflicts act as accelerators, providing real-time data on the efficacy of these asymmetric tools, which in turn necessitates urgent investment in early warning systems,
Better placed: AI-driven surveillance and intelligence, counter-UAS (Unmanned Aircraft Systems), satellite imagery and GEOINT, critical infrastructure cybersecurity
More exposed: legacy heavy armor platforms, traditional physical border security, conventional non-precision munitions, static perimeter defense hardware
Named: PLTR, AVAV, LMT, CRWD, GD
What would break this: A sudden global shift toward disarmament treaties or the implementation of highly restrictive international AI regulations could slow the procurement of frontier defense technologies.
NATO expansion and global stability efforts drive strategic defense and security spending
1. NATO reinforcements in the High North and Eastern Flank necessitate increased procurement of advanced weaponry, surveillance systems, and military infrastructure to maintain deterrence. 2. The shift toward 'strategic deterrence' favors high-tech defense capabilities including missile defense and cyber warfare tools. 3. UN-led cooperation on climate adaptation and cross-border crime increases demand for specialized
Better placed: aerospace and defense, cybersecurity, satellite communications, military logistics
More exposed: non-aligned arms exporters, traditional diplomatic consulting (shifting to security-led diplomacy), unsecured cross-border trade logistics
Named: LMT, RHM.DE, PLTR, NOC, AIR.PA
What would break this: A sudden diplomatic breakthrough leading to comprehensive disarmament treaties or a significant reduction in NATO funding commitments would invalidate the growth thesis.
RBI regulatory tightening and liquidity drains pressure Indian banking operational margins
1. Increased monetary penalties for non-compliance with customer compensation and credit reporting raise direct operational costs for financial institutions. 2. Stricter loan pricing regulations limit the ability of lenders to aggressively adjust rates, potentially squeezing net interest margins (NIMs). 3. The use of Variable Rate Reverse Repos (VRRRs) and T-Bill auctions removes excess liquidity from the banking sys
Better placed: RegTech software providers, compliance consultancy services, government securities markets
More exposed: retail commercial banks, non-banking financial companies (NBFCs), aggressive consumer credit lenders
Named: TCS.NS, BAJFINANCE.N, HDB, INFY
What would break this: A shift toward a more accommodative monetary policy or a relaxation of compliance timelines would mitigate the pressure on banking margins.
RBI liquidity absorption likely to increase short-term borrowing costs and bond yields
The RBI's use of VRRR auctions removes excess cash from the commercial banking system. This reduction in available liquidity typically puts upward pressure on overnight interbank call rates. As banks have less surplus capital to deploy, demand for government securities (G-Secs) may soften, leading to higher yields and lower bond prices. Consequently, entities relying on short-term wholesale funding or bank credit fac
Better placed: short-term money market funds, banks with high CASA ratios, floating rate debt instruments
More exposed: non-banking financial companies (NBFCs), highly leveraged corporate borrowers, long-duration government bond holders
Named: HDB, BAJAJFIN, LICI, SBIN
What would break this: A sudden surge in government spending or a massive influx of foreign portfolio investment (FPI) could offset the VRRR absorption, maintaining liquidity levels.
RBI liquidity absorption likely to elevate short-term borrowing costs and pressure NBFCs
The RBI's use of VRRR auctions removes excess cash from the banking system, reducing the supply of loanable funds. This typically leads to an increase in interbank call money rates. As funding becomes tighter, banks may raise lending rates to maintain net interest margins (NIMs), which increases the cost of capital for corporate borrowers and Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) that rely on bank credit rather tha
Better placed: short-duration fixed income, high-quality banks with strong deposit franchises, cash-rich corporations
More exposed: non-banking financial companies (NBFCs), highly leveraged corporate borrowers, banks with high reliance on wholesale funding
Named: HDB, SBIN, BAJAJFIN, RELIANCE
What would break this: A sudden shift toward monetary easing or an unexpected surge in foreign portfolio investment (FPI) inflows could offset the RBI's absorption efforts.
RBI liquidity absorption via VRRRs likely to tighten short-term credit conditions
1. RBI uses VRRR auctions to remove excess cash from the banking system. 2. Reduced systemic liquidity typically puts upward pressure on interbank call money rates and short-term yields. 3. As banks face tighter liquidity, they may increase lending rates to maintain net interest margins (NIMs). 4. This increases the cost of capital for corporate borrowers and reduces available credit for highly leveraged sectors.
Better placed: short-term debt instruments, banks with high CASA ratios, liquid fund managers
More exposed: highly leveraged corporates, non-banking financial companies (NBFCs), real estate development, wholesale funding dependent sectors
Named: HDB, SBIN, BAJFINANCE, DLF
What would break this: A sudden shift in RBI policy toward accommodation or a massive influx of foreign portfolio investment (FPI) could offset the liquidity absorption.
RBI liquidity absorption tightens monetary conditions and pressures banking net interest margins
1. The RBI uses Variable Rate Reverse Repo (VRRR) auctions to remove excess cash from the commercial banking system. 2. This reduction in systemic liquidity typically leads to an increase in short-term interbank lending rates. 3. As banks face higher costs for funding and liquidity management, their cost of funds increases. 4. If these increased costs cannot be immediately passed on to borrowers via higher loan rates
Better placed: short-duration debt funds, money market instruments, liquid fund managers
More exposed: commercial banking sector, highly leveraged corporate borrowers, credit-sensitive sectors like real estate
Named: HDB, IBN, SBIN, RELIANCE
What would break this: A sudden influx of government spending or foreign portfolio investment (FPI) inflows could offset the RBI's absorption efforts, maintaining liquidity levels.
Readings drawn from the document corpus, not from price action. Each carries the case against it, because a view without a stated way to be wrong is not worth much. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell anything.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Markov Regime Engine | UP | 58% |
| Macro Factor Gate | DOWN | 55% |
Consensus: NO CONSENSUS
Model failed validation: out-of-sample error 0.7635% is worse than the 0.7617% predict-zero baseline. Projection withheld until a weekly retrain produces a model that beats the baseline.
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 13.5% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 70% |
| Variance risk premium | +3.2 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.53% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.43% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.66% |
Premium in normal range — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.07 in-sample / 0.11 OOS, worst 0.07) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monetary Policy | 0.94 | 13.5h | CRITICAL |
| Interest Rates | 0.83 | 0.8h | ELEVATED |
| Crypto & Digital Assets | 0.67 | 1.1h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Oil & Gas | 0.64 | 1.0h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Inflation | 0.61 | 1.0h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Capital Markets | 0.61 | 1.0h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Semiconductors | 0.61 | 1.2h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Cloud & Data Centers | 0.49 | 0.8h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 309 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 1,533 |
| Projected close of day | 1,809 |
| Daily average | 1,325 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 1.21× |
| Total in corpus | 198,711 |
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.
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