real time stock market sentiment dashboard
A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login, no sign-up.
Regime read: NEUTRAL (BELOW NOISE FLOOR) · expected +1.83% ± 5.91% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.31 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Sideways (92.2% posterior, -1.2%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.0240%/day and dominates. Net +0.0160%/day. Suppressed: expected +1.83% over 30d is only 0.31 sd of its own noise (floor 0.35).
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOOD | +9.5 | Financials | 28.9 | 2.34 | 32% | Robinhood Ventures Fund II targets $200 million IPOprofitableExpensive PEGY (>2) |
| BE | +5.9 | Industrials | 44.7 | 0.86 | 58% | Bloom Energy vs. Oklo: Which Power Stock Is a Better Buy in 2026?profitableExtended FWD P/E |
| GEV | +5.4 | Industrials | 40.6 | 1.66 | 72% | Better Small Modular Reactor Stock: NuScale Power vs. GE VernovaprofitableExtended FWD P/EMean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
| PLTR | +4.7 | Information Technology | 60.0 | 1.76 | 19% | Palantir stock jumps ahead of quarterly resultsprofitableExtended FWD P/EMean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
| DDOG | +4.6 | Information Technology | 95.3 | 1.67 | 98% | Datadog (DDOG) Grows Revenue by Over 30% as AI Demand AcceleratesprofitableNear 52w HighExtended FWD P/E |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
NO TRADE: every ranked play has a negative expected net gain after costs in the current regime. The table is a relative ordering, not a buy list.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AU | LONG | 39.6% | -0.41 | -0.30 | -1.95 | High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum; Quality: F-score 9/9 |
| 2 | ATKR | LONG | 39.8% | -0.38 | -0.46 | -1.29 | Accelerating velocity +9.0 (2 mentions/12h); ⚠ Earnings in 1d — event risk inside hold window |
| 3 | UBER | LONG | 40.5% | -0.34 | -0.55 | -0.62 | Accelerating velocity +1.8 (2 mentions/12h); ⚠ Earnings in 2d — event risk inside hold window |
| 4 | KKR | LONG | 39.6% | -0.41 | -0.30 | -1.95 | High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum |
| 5 | HOOD | LONG | 40.9% | -0.36 | -0.58 | -0.77 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 9.5); Accelerating velocity +3.8 (2 mentions/12h); ⚠ Expensive PEGY (>2) |
| 6 | GEV | LONG | 40.9% | -0.36 | -0.58 | -0.77 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 5.4); Accelerating velocity +5.8 (2 mentions/12h); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Mean Reversion: Euphoria (Short); Quality: F-score 7/9 |
| 7 | RBLX | LONG | 39.6% | -0.41 | -0.30 | -1.95 | Despair reversion: sentiment -5 but undervalued |
| 8 | BE | LONG | 41.3% | -0.38 | -0.62 | -0.93 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 6.0); CIO meta-model current selection; ⚠ Extended FWD P/E |
Engine hit rate 42.4% over 165 scored calls (lower bound 35.1%), average net alpha -0.331%. Serving: rules.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
A single operational change resulting in a $9 billion market cap wipeout indicates extreme fragility and asymmetric downside risk, confirming the bear thesis of fundamental instability.
2026-08-03 15:35A definitive acquisition agreement at $95 per share provides a hard valuation floor and immediate price convergence toward the target price, overriding routine industrial headwinds.
2026-08-03 11:02Despite financial beats, the market is prioritizing a decline in U.S. daily active users as a leading indicator of platform stagnation, triggering a violent price correction.
2026-08-02 08:17Disappointing Q2 earnings results trigger a violent downward re-rating of valuation based on a fundamental breakdown in the growth narrative.
2026-08-01 02:12A 'one-two punch' earnings miss suggests systemic commercial failure or pipeline decay rather than temporary volatility, triggering a significant institutional exit.
2026-07-31 23:27The SPCX unlock is a massive supply-side shock that historically triggers 'sell the news' dynamics and insider exits, outweighing any speculative short squeeze narrative.
2026-07-31 13:38An FTC lawsuit regarding privacy violations in a telehealth platform is a fundamental risk to customer trust and brand equity, creating a significant downward pressure that outweighs the speculative 'dip-buying' narrative.
2026-07-31 07:32A definitive $5.7bn acquisition of MKTX by ICE is a high-conviction bullish catalyst as it provides an immediate valuation floor and a price target based on a fixed cash/stock consideration.
2026-07-30 15:40An earnings beat coupled with a 25% price collapse is a definitive signal of institutional exit and forward-guidance failure, overriding the lagging indicator of past performance.
2026-07-30 06:53Albertsons (ACI) is signaling a direct hit to top-line revenue and earnings per share, confirming a systemic decline in consumer spending power that outweighs any speculative 'dip-buying' narrative.
2026-07-28 02:52Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
| Ticker | Velocity | Vol | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATKR | +9.0 | 2 | Atkore Jumps After Earnings Beat and Prysmian Agrees $95-a-Share Acquisition |
| GEV | +5.8 | 2 | Better Small Modular Reactor Stock: NuScale Power vs. GE Vernova |
| HOOD | +3.8 | 2 | Robinhood Ventures Fund II targets $200 million IPO |
| PLTR | +2.8 | 3 | Palantir stock jumps ahead of quarterly results |
| UBER | +1.8 | 2 | Uber Reports Earnings on Aug. 5, Followed by Lyft on Aug. 6. Here's the Better Buy Now. |
Change in scored coverage over the last 12 hours versus the prior 12.
| RBLX | -8.8 | Roblox made one change and wiped out $9 billion |
| COIN | -5.9 | Wolf vs Lajal |
| TWST | -5.3 | Why is Twist Bioscience stock sliding today? |
| WIX | -4.0 | Diamond Hill Capital Large Cap Strategy Exited Wix.com (WIX) Amid Weak Results and AI Disruption |
| NXPI | -3.9 | NXP downgraded by UBS as China and AI risks cloud growth |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financials | +198 | +601 | +3,146 | |
| Energybearish reversal | -141 | +152 | +2,446 | |
| Industrialsbullish reversal | +21 | +77 | -671 | |
| Materialsbullish reversal | +6 | +57 | -136 | |
| Health Care | -5 | +41 | -289 | |
| Consumer Staples | -24 | -2 | -725 | |
| Communication Services | -1 | -42 | -325 | |
| Consumer Discretionarybullish reversal | +19 | -46 | -1,481 | |
| Information Technology | +13 | -104 | +665 | |
| Utilities | -23 | -227 | -909 | |
| Real Estate | -59 | -506 | -1,721 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Interest Rates | +67.3 | -40 | |
| Geopolitics | +54.0 | +54 | |
| Inflation | +48.2 | -2 | |
| Monetary Policy | +32.3 | -2 | |
| Housing Market | -9.5 | -12 | |
| Electric Vehicles | -9.7 | -4 | |
| Artificial Intelligence | -33.0 | +94 | |
| Oil Prices | -55.0 | -34 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Macro Factor Gate | UP | 55% |
Consensus: BULLISH
Model failed validation: out-of-sample error 1.4182% is worse than the 1.0138% predict-zero baseline. Projection withheld until a weekly retrain produces a model that beats the baseline.
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 13.9% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 64% |
| Variance risk premium | +2.1 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.59% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.55% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.76% |
Premium in normal range — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.08 in-sample / 0.20 OOS, worst 0.08) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil & Gas | 0.79 | 2.5h | ELEVATED |
| Artificial Intelligence | 0.76 | 0.9h | ELEVATED |
| Inflation | 0.74 | 2.4h | ELEVATED |
| Cloud & Data Centers | 0.71 | 1.4h | ELEVATED |
| Semiconductors | 0.70 | 0.8h | ELEVATED |
| Interest Rates | 0.67 | 0.7h | SUBCRITICAL |
| FinTech | 0.56 | 1.5h | SUBCRITICAL |
| M&A | 0.55 | 1.7h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 1,020 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 1,042 |
| Projected close of day | 1,321 |
| Daily average | 1,351 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 0.95× |
| Total in corpus | 140,500 |
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.