real time stock market sentiment dashboard
A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login, no sign-up.
Regime read: LONG · expected +2.20% ± 5.69% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.39 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Sideways (69.6% posterior, +0.1%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.0573%/day and dominates. Net +0.0552%/day.
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLTR | +44.9 | Information Technology | 67.8 | 1.76 | 49% | Is Palantir a Buy as Its Revenue Surges 93% and Continues to Accelerate?profitableExtended FWD P/EMean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
| CEG | +7.3 | Utilities | 19.6 | 3.39 | 18% | LS Power to buy Brazos Valley Energy Center from ConstellationprofitableExpensive PEGY (>2)Mean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
| W | +7.1 | Consumer Discretionary | 27.2 | — | 75% | Wayfair narrows quarterly loss on strong US revenue growthP/B < 1.5Price > Analyst TargetUNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
| BE | +5.8 | Industrials | 46.8 | 0.86 | 61% | Prediction: Up 120% YTD, Bloom Energy Has Room to RunprofitableExtended FWD P/E |
| BR | +5.6 | Information Technology | 14.3 | 1.06 | 22% | Broadridge Financial Solutions (BR) Opens Proxy Voting To Tokenized Equity HoldersprofitableFwd P/E < 15 |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
NO TRADE: every ranked play has a negative expected net gain after costs in the current regime. The table is a relative ordering, not a buy list.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BR | LONG | 42.1% | -0.27 | -0.65 | -1.28 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 5.6); Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 2 | FOXA | LONG | 41.6% | -0.27 | -0.58 | -0.76 | Accelerating velocity +9.0 (3 mentions/12h); Quality: F-score 8/9; ⚠ Earnings in 0d — event risk inside hold window |
| 3 | PLTR | LONG | 40.9% | -0.19 | -0.70 | -0.76 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 45.0); Earnings catalyst (82% PM conviction); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Mean Reversion: Euphoria (Short); Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 4 | BE | LONG | 42.1% | -0.27 | -0.65 | -1.28 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 5.9); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E |
| 5 | RKLB | LONG | 40.9% | -0.19 | -0.06 | +0.48 | Accelerating velocity +10.0 (4 mentions/12h) |
| 6 | COIN | LONG | 40.9% | -0.19 | -0.06 | +0.48 | Accelerating velocity +8.6 (3 mentions/12h) |
| 7 | W | LONG | 41.8% | -0.27 | -0.61 | -1.00 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 7.1); Accelerating velocity +4.8 (3 mentions/12h); ⚠ Price > Analyst Target; UNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
| 8 | SUPN | LONG | 36.1% | +0.01 | -0.82 | +0.61 | M&A catalyst (82% PM conviction) |
Engine hit rate 43.7% over 190 scored calls (lower bound 36.8%), average net alpha -0.240%. Serving: rules.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
A simultaneous earnings miss and weakened revenue outlook provides a classic 'double whammy' that triggers an aggressive re-rating of the growth narrative, outweighing any short-term dip-buying opportunities.
2026-08-06 20:25AppLovin's earnings fall is acting as a systemic catalyst for the Nasdaq, indicating a fundamental devaluation of AI-driven ad-tech valuations rather than a temporary dip.
2026-08-06 12:49Despite beating earnings views, the market is pricing in a structural growth slowdown as evidenced by the violent reaction to underwhelming revenue guidance.
2026-08-06 12:37Prysmian's all-cash acquisition of Atkore is a massive catalyst, but the risk premium and arbitrage gap prevent it from an absolute certainty of convergence to the purchase price.
2026-08-06 04:43None
2026-08-06 03:04The AbbVie buyout is a definitive valuation ceiling; Baron Capital's exit signals that smart money has already captured the alpha and is providing liquidity for retail traders who are mistakenly treating a completed acquisition as a growth catalyst.
2026-08-05 12:49The announcement of a merger with Supernus, which is already showing strong revenue growth and high guidance, provides an immediate valuation reset and significant synergy potential for INDV.
2026-08-05 00:29The combination of a revenue beat and raised guidance provides fundamental strength, while the Indivior merger acts as a high-impact catalyst for valuation re-rating despite typical M&A integration risks.
2026-08-05 00:28A definitive acquisition of MKTX by ICE is a high-conviction catalyst as it typically provides an immediate price floor and established premium over current trading levels.
2026-08-04 23:33A 67% collapse driven by leverage-induced insolvency and a fire sale of AI assets indicates structural failure rather than a opportunistic dip, making the current valuation a value trap.
2026-08-04 12:53Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
| Ticker | Velocity | Vol | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| RKLB | +10.0 | 4 | SpaceX Climbs 3% as Lockup Expiration Fails to Trigger a Selloff; AST SpaceMobile and Rocket Lab Rise 5% |
| FOXA | +9.0 | 3 | Fox advertising, streaming service Tubi get boost from World Cup |
| COIN | +8.6 | 3 | Coinbase CEO Says America Needs CLARITY Act: 'It's a Win for the Future of America' |
| CEG | +7.4 | 3 | LS Power to buy Brazos Valley Energy Center from Constellation |
| W | +4.8 | 3 | Wayfair narrows quarterly loss on strong US revenue growth |
Change in scored coverage over the last 12 hours versus the prior 12.
| DDOG | -14.7 | Software Stocks Fall As Datadog, HubSpot Earnings Raise Questions Over AI Pricing |
| CPRI | -8.3 | Capri Holdings stock hits 52-week low at 15.19 USD |
| UBER | -8.2 | Uber doubles down on robotaxi plans, shares fall on weak profit forecast |
| HUBS | -7.1 | Why HubSpot Stock Is Plummeting Today |
| TBLA | -6.5 | Taboola shares plunge after earnings miss and weaker revenue outlook |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financials | +52 | +554 | +2,861 | |
| Information Technology | +36 | +335 | +651 | |
| Energy | +72 | +34 | +2,817 | |
| Industrials | +0 | +26 | -659 | |
| Materialsbullish reversal | +16 | +25 | -116 | |
| Health Care | +2 | -29 | -266 | |
| Consumer Discretionary | -44 | -53 | -1,461 | |
| Communication Services | -22 | -106 | -372 | |
| Consumer Staples | -26 | -114 | -722 | |
| Utilities | -26 | -227 | -954 | |
| Real Estate | -58 | -447 | -1,778 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation | +29.0 | -13 | |
| Geopolitics | +28.0 | +50 | |
| Artificial Intelligence | +27.5 | +191 | |
| Oil Prices | +21.3 | +34 | |
| Tariffs | -16.2 | -21 | |
| Corporate Earnings | -17.2 | -10 | |
| Geopolitical Risk | -20.8 | -27 | |
| Tech Stocks | -23.0 | -21 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Markov Regime Engine | UP | 50% |
| Macro Factor Gate | UP | 55% |
Consensus: BULLISH
Weekly index projection: +0.38% (80% band -1.38% to +0.99%).
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 13.7% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 65% |
| Variance risk premium | +1.8 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.58% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.53% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.69% |
Premium in normal range — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.06 in-sample / 0.10 OOS, worst 0.06) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Geopolitics | 0.85 | 2.6h | ELEVATED |
| Oil & Gas | 0.83 | 2.4h | ELEVATED |
| Currency Intervention | 0.81 | 3.3h | ELEVATED |
| Artificial Intelligence | 0.71 | 0.8h | ELEVATED |
| Aerospace & Defense | 0.64 | 1.1h | SUBCRITICAL |
| M&A | 0.60 | 1.1h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Interest Rates | 0.59 | 0.6h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Inflation | 0.54 | 1.7h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 1,440 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 1,390 |
| Projected close of day | 1,604 |
| Daily average | 1,340 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 1.24× |
| Total in corpus | 144,682 |
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.