real time stock market sentiment dashboard
A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login, no sign-up.
Regime read: LONG · expected +2.20% ± 5.69% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.39 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Sideways (69.6% posterior, +0.1%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.0573%/day and dominates. Net +0.0552%/day.
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLTR | +48.6 | Information Technology | 68.9 | 1.76 | 49% | Palantir Just Reported a Blowout Quarter and Raised Its Guidance. Wall Street Is Blown AwayprofitableExtended FWD P/EMean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
| W | +8.4 | Consumer Discretionary | 27.2 | — | 75% | Wayfair Stock Is Up 57% in the Past Year, and Analysts Think It Can Keep ClimbingP/B < 1.5Price > Analyst TargetUNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
| CEG | +7.0 | Utilities | 19.6 | 3.39 | 18% | LS Power to buy Brazos Valley Energy Center from ConstellationprofitableExpensive PEGY (>2) |
| BE | +5.6 | Industrials | 46.8 | 0.86 | 61% | Prediction: Up 120% YTD, Bloom Energy Has Room to RunprofitableExtended FWD P/E |
| BR | +5.4 | Information Technology | 14.3 | 1.06 | 22% | Broadridge Financial Solutions (BR) Opens Proxy Voting To Tokenized Equity HoldersprofitableFwd P/E < 15 |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
NO TRADE: every ranked play has a negative expected net gain after costs in the current regime. The table is a relative ordering, not a buy list.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BR | LONG | 42.1% | -0.27 | -0.66 | -1.28 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 5.4); Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 2 | FOXA | LONG | 41.6% | -0.27 | -0.58 | -0.76 | Accelerating velocity +9.0 (3 mentions/12h); Quality: F-score 8/9; ⚠ Earnings in 0d — event risk inside hold window |
| 3 | PLTR | LONG | 40.9% | -0.19 | -0.70 | -0.76 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 48.6); Earnings catalyst (82% PM conviction); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Mean Reversion: Euphoria (Short); Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 4 | BE | LONG | 42.1% | -0.27 | -0.66 | -1.28 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 5.6); CIO meta-model current selection; ⚠ Extended FWD P/E |
| 5 | CEG | LONG | 41.8% | -0.27 | -0.62 | -1.00 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 7.0); Accelerating velocity +7.4 (3 mentions/12h); ⚠ Expensive PEGY (>2); ⚠ Earnings in 0d — event risk inside hold window |
| 6 | W | LONG | 41.8% | -0.27 | -0.62 | -1.00 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 8.4); Accelerating velocity +7.8 (4 mentions/12h); ⚠ Price > Analyst Target; UNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
| 7 | RKLB | LONG | 40.9% | -0.19 | -0.06 | +0.48 | Accelerating velocity +6.4 (3 mentions/12h) |
| 8 | COIN | LONG | 40.9% | -0.19 | -0.06 | +0.48 | Accelerating velocity +5.0 (2 mentions/12h) |
Engine hit rate 43.5% over 191 scored calls (lower bound 36.6%), average net alpha -0.249%. Serving: rules.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
A 28% plunge following earnings is a violent confirmation of structural failure and fundamental devaluation rather than a temporary overreaction.
2026-08-06 21:46A simultaneous earnings miss and weakened revenue outlook provides a classic 'double whammy' that triggers an aggressive re-rating of the growth narrative, outweighing any short-term dip-buying opportunities.
2026-08-06 20:25AppLovin's earnings fall is acting as a systemic catalyst for the Nasdaq, indicating a fundamental devaluation of AI-driven ad-tech valuations rather than a temporary dip.
2026-08-06 12:49Despite beating earnings views, the market is pricing in a structural growth slowdown as evidenced by the violent reaction to underwhelming revenue guidance.
2026-08-06 12:37Prysmian's all-cash acquisition of Atkore is a massive catalyst, but the risk premium and arbitrage gap prevent it from an absolute certainty of convergence to the purchase price.
2026-08-06 04:43None
2026-08-06 03:04The AbbVie buyout is a definitive valuation ceiling; Baron Capital's exit signals that smart money has already captured the alpha and is providing liquidity for retail traders who are mistakenly treating a completed acquisition as a growth catalyst.
2026-08-05 12:49The announcement of a merger with Supernus, which is already showing strong revenue growth and high guidance, provides an immediate valuation reset and significant synergy potential for INDV.
2026-08-05 00:29The combination of a revenue beat and raised guidance provides fundamental strength, while the Indivior merger acts as a high-impact catalyst for valuation re-rating despite typical M&A integration risks.
2026-08-05 00:28A definitive acquisition of MKTX by ICE is a high-conviction catalyst as it typically provides an immediate price floor and established premium over current trading levels.
2026-08-04 23:33Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
| Ticker | Velocity | Vol | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| FOXA | +9.0 | 3 | Fox advertising, streaming service Tubi get boost from World Cup |
| W | +7.8 | 4 | Wayfair Stock Is Up 57% in the Past Year, and Analysts Think It Can Keep Climbing |
| CEG | +7.4 | 3 | LS Power to buy Brazos Valley Energy Center from Constellation |
| RKLB | +6.4 | 3 | SpaceX Climbs 3% as Lockup Expiration Fails to Trigger a Selloff; AST SpaceMobile and Rocket Lab Rise 5% |
| COIN | +5.0 | 2 | Coinbase CEO Says America Needs CLARITY Act: 'It's a Win for the Future of America' |
Change in scored coverage over the last 12 hours versus the prior 12.
| DDOG | -14.2 | Software Stocks Fall As Datadog, HubSpot Earnings Raise Questions Over AI Pricing |
| UBER | -11.2 | Uber shares slip as third-quarter earnings outlook disappoints investors |
| CPRI | -8.0 | Capri Holdings stock hits 52-week low at 15.19 USD |
| HUBS | -6.8 | Why HubSpot Stock Is Plummeting Today |
| TBLA | -6.3 | Taboola shares plunge after earnings miss and weaker revenue outlook |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financials | +52 | +551 | +2,866 | |
| Information Technology | +42 | +345 | +670 | |
| Energy | +62 | +35 | +2,812 | |
| Materialsbullish reversal | +16 | +24 | -120 | |
| Industrials | -0 | +20 | -660 | |
| Health Carebullish reversal | +2 | -23 | -266 | |
| Consumer Discretionary | -48 | -57 | -1,468 | |
| Communication Services | -24 | -106 | -374 | |
| Consumer Staples | -28 | -116 | -724 | |
| Utilities | -20 | -223 | -952 | |
| Real Estate | -56 | -448 | -1,782 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Artificial Intelligence | +51.5 | +211 | |
| Inflation | +27.2 | -13 | |
| Oil Prices | +24.0 | +37 | |
| Interest Rates | +22.2 | -47 | |
| Monetary Policy | -13.8 | -28 | |
| Tariffs | -16.2 | -21 | |
| Corporate Earnings | -20.2 | -13 | |
| Tech Stocks | -25.5 | -24 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Markov Regime Engine | UP | 50% |
| Macro Factor Gate | UP | 55% |
Consensus: BULLISH
Weekly index projection: +0.40% (80% band -1.42% to +1.02%).
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 13.7% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 65% |
| Variance risk premium | +1.8 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.58% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.53% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.69% |
Premium in normal range — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.06 in-sample / 0.10 OOS, worst 0.06) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil & Gas | 0.85 | 2.5h | ELEVATED |
| Geopolitics | 0.82 | 2.4h | ELEVATED |
| Currency Intervention | 0.81 | 3.3h | ELEVATED |
| Artificial Intelligence | 0.73 | 0.8h | ELEVATED |
| Aerospace & Defense | 0.65 | 1.2h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Interest Rates | 0.60 | 0.7h | SUBCRITICAL |
| M&A | 0.59 | 1.1h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Semiconductors | 0.56 | 1.0h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 1,512 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 1,390 |
| Projected close of day | 1,613 |
| Daily average | 1,340 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 1.24× |
| Total in corpus | 144,754 |
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.