real time stock market sentiment dashboard
A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login, no sign-up.
Regime read: LONG · expected +2.75% ± 5.30% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.52 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Bull (75.1% posterior, +43.2%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.1227%/day and dominates. Net +0.1224%/day.
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLTR | +14.3 | Information Technology | 76.5 | 2.41 | 70% | EXCLUSIVE: CPI Lands Tomorrow and Could Send PLTR, TSLA Surging—But Only if It's A 'Serious Shock,' Cato Economist SaysprofitableExtended FWD P/EExpensive PEGY (>2) |
| RIOT | +10.6 | Financials | -28.4 | — | 47% | B. Riley keeps Riot at Buy after $9.1 billion Rockdale AI leaseFwd P/E < 15EV/EBITDA < 10UNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
| HOOD | +7.7 | Financials | 29.7 | 2.12 | 35% | Robinhood to introduce crypto trading in UKprofitableExpensive PEGY (>2) |
| SE | +6.2 | Consumer Discretionary | 24.9 | 1.65 | 44% | Why is Sea stock surging today?profitable |
| APO | +4.0 | Financials | 12.9 | 0.57 | 73% | Nvidia Confirms Huge AI Funding Deal. These Financial Stocks Jump.convictionprofitablePEGY < 0.75Fwd P/E < 15 |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ONON | LONG | 42.6% | -0.04 | -0.17 | +0.05 | Despair reversion: sentiment -9 but undervalued; ⚠ Earnings in 0d — event risk inside hold window |
| 2 | APO | LONG | 42.4% | -0.14 | -0.36 | -0.66 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 4.0); Valuation corroborated (PEGY/fwd-PE/EV checks); High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum |
| 3 | RIOT | LONG | 42.1% | -0.19 | -0.40 | -0.82 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 10.7); Accelerating velocity +16.4 (4 mentions/12h); ⚠ UNPROFITABLE - elevated risk; ⚠ Earnings in 0d — event risk inside hold window |
| 4 | SE | LONG | 41.9% | -0.24 | -0.48 | -1.05 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 6.2); Accelerating velocity +8.0 (3 mentions/12h); CIO meta-model current selection; Quality: F-score 8/9; ⚠ Earnings in 0d — event risk inside hold window |
| 5 | COIN | LONG | 41.7% | -0.24 | -0.44 | -0.81 | Accelerating velocity +5.8 (2 mentions/12h) |
| 6 | HOOD | LONG | 41.9% | -0.24 | -0.48 | -1.05 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 7.8); Accelerating velocity +6.6 (2 mentions/12h); ⚠ Expensive PEGY (>2) |
| 7 | PLTR | LONG | 41.9% | -0.24 | -0.48 | -1.05 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 14.4); Accelerating velocity +5.2 (3 mentions/12h); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Expensive PEGY (>2); Quality: F-score 8/9 |
Engine hit rate 43.7% over 229 scored calls (lower bound 37.4%), average net alpha -0.259%. Serving: rules.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
The stock is tanking in real-time during earnings, signaling institutional exit and a valuation bubble burst rather than a temporary dip.
2026-08-11 13:40A massive 17% jump following a blowout earnings beat suggests strong momentum and pricing power, but conviction is capped by the potential for 'sell the news' profit-taking and macro travel spending risks.
2026-08-10 10:50Nielsen's $2.15 billion takeover of DoubleVerify is a major bullish catalyst, but the stock will likely trade at a discount to the offer price due to deal risk and the correctness of the pre-announcement run-up.
2026-08-08 12:21The announcement of a cash buyout to take the company private is a primary catalyst for price convergence toward the offer price, though conviction is tempered by the M&A arbitrage spread and potential 'sell the news' dynamics.
2026-08-08 11:40Datadog's 19% plunge as a leader of the software sector slide suggests systemic risk and valuation reset rather than a temporary dip, signaling a high probability of continued downward pressure.
2026-08-08 05:11A price collapse following an earnings beat is a classic institutional distribution signal, indicating that the 'beat' was likely priced in or based on a lowered bar, suggesting a further downward trajectory.
2026-08-07 22:02The withdrawal of guidance and dividend slash signals a fundamental breakdown in cash flow visibility and management credibility, outweighing any 'blood in the streets' recovery narrative.
2026-08-07 14:53A 28% plunge following earnings is a violent confirmation of structural failure and fundamental devaluation rather than a temporary overreaction.
2026-08-06 21:46A simultaneous earnings miss and weakened revenue outlook provides a classic 'double whammy' that triggers an aggressive re-rating of the growth narrative, outweighing any short-term dip-buying opportunities.
2026-08-06 20:25AppLovin's earnings fall is acting as a systemic catalyst for the Nasdaq, indicating a fundamental devaluation of AI-driven ad-tech valuations rather than a temporary dip.
2026-08-06 12:49Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
| Ticker | Velocity | Vol | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| RIOT | +16.4 | 4 | B. Riley keeps Riot at Buy after $9.1 billion Rockdale AI lease |
| SE | +8.0 | 3 | Why is Sea stock surging today? |
| HOOD | +6.6 | 2 | Robinhood to introduce crypto trading in UK |
| COIN | +5.8 | 2 | Coinbase establishes its tokenization hub in Abu Dhabi, with Financial Services Permission from the Financial Services Regulatory Authority (FSRA) |
| PLTR | +5.2 | 3 | EXCLUSIVE: CPI Lands Tomorrow and Could Send PLTR, TSLA Surging—But Only if It's A 'Serious Shock,' Cato Economist Says |
Change in scored coverage over the last 12 hours versus the prior 12.
| HIMS | -6.8 | Lost it in hims but got it back in On running |
| HONA | -5.2 | Honeywell Aerospace (HONA) Trade Settles at Valuation Discount Following Spin-off |
| WEN | -4.6 | Wendy's loses status as second-largest burger chain after 6-year run |
| ESLT | -3.7 | Elbit Systems shares fall 6% despite Q2 earnings and revenue beat |
| ASTS | -3.6 | AST SpaceMobile Q2 2026 earnings miss, full-year guidance held |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy | +161 | +412 | +2,504 | |
| Information Technology | +88 | +396 | +500 | |
| Financials | +66 | +394 | +2,910 | |
| Materialsbullish reversal | +10 | +46 | -26 | |
| Health Care | -18 | -86 | -266 | |
| Communication Services | -11 | -120 | -396 | |
| Industrials | -34 | -138 | -686 | |
| Utilities | -37 | -166 | -868 | |
| Consumer Staples | -23 | -196 | -722 | |
| Consumer Discretionary | -79 | -256 | -1,360 | |
| Real Estate | -127 | -286 | -1,592 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil Prices | +97.7 | +134 | |
| Artificial Intelligence | +58.8 | +253 | |
| AI Infrastructure | +26.0 | +33 | |
| Employment | +19.0 | -2 | |
| Geopolitical Tension | -19.8 | -37 | |
| Inflation | -29.2 | -54 | |
| Geopolitics | -31.5 | -16 | |
| Interest Rates | -53.0 | -56 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Markov Regime Engine | UP | 50% |
| Macro Factor Gate | UP | 55% |
Consensus: BULLISH
Weekly index projection: +0.67% (80% band -1.93% to +1.99%).
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 11.9% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 51% |
| Variance risk premium | +2.8 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.57% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.52% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.64% |
Premium in normal range — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.06 in-sample / 0.12 OOS, worst 0.06) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil & Gas | 0.81 | 1.4h | ELEVATED |
| Geopolitics | 0.74 | 2.4h | ELEVATED |
| Interest Rates | 0.68 | 0.9h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Artificial Intelligence | 0.66 | 0.6h | SUBCRITICAL |
| M&A | 0.58 | 1.0h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Crypto & Digital Assets | 0.49 | 0.9h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Aerospace & Defense | 0.44 | 1.0h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Semiconductors | 0.43 | 0.6h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 696 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 1,365 |
| Projected close of day | 1,172 |
| Daily average | 1,344 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 0.92× |
| Total in corpus | 150,534 |
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.